Turnovers Equal Turnaround
Here it is Friday night and I am working on the FCS rankings for 2009. I am doing the MEAC conference and in particular Florida A&M. The Rattlers were 3-8 in 2007 and that year they were -12 in turnovers. Now if you have ever read one of my publications you know the first thing I think of is “Turnovers = Turnaround” and that they should have had an improved record in 2008. I check the standings and boom, they went 9-3 last year showing significant improvement. This is not a one time occurrence but one that happens roughly 80% of the time. I have noticed that the Turnovers = Turnaround factor does indeed work for the FCS (aka IAA). I do not have a complete study, but a quick check of last year saw an amazing 49 teams out of the 125 in the FCS (IAA) had double digit turnovers either positive or negative in ‘07 and only 14 (28.6%) of those went against my trend which I have noted in the magazine for all 15 years of its existence.
If you have received my free NFL guide the past 5 or so years you know that the Turnover trend also works for the NFL. Last year there were 7 teams that had either positive or negative double digit turnovers (I use 12 as the limit in the NFL as they play 16 games) and 5 or 71% did as expected (negative TO teams improve, +12 or more TO teams get weaker). I have done a
study of the NFL since 1991 and there have been 123 teams that have either had +12 or more TO’s or -12 or more TO’s in a season over that 18 year span. Of those 123 only 23 went against my trend which is just 18.6%! That is a 81.4% success rate!
This year there are five teams that qualify for my NFL Turnovers = Turnaround article. Three teams that should have weaker records this year after benefiting from +12 turnovers or more are Miami (+17), Tennessee (+14) and Baltimore (+13). There are two teams that should have better fortune this year as they were -12 or more turnovers last year. The two teams whose record should improve are San Francisco (-17) and Denver (-17).
Check out any of my College Football magazines for an indepth article on Turnovers = Turnaround but basically only 20% of the time does a team that benefited from double digit turnovers the previous year manage to increase its record or a team that had the misfortune of negative double digit turnovers stumble to an even weaker record. That is an 80% success rate for this very easy to follow system which I have published 15 straight years. Yes, there are always exceptions to the rule but think about a team like USC, Florida or Ohio St. This decade USC has a record of 93-22 or 80% wins. Ohio St has a record of 91-23 (79.8%) this decade and Florida has a record of 87-29 (75%) in that span. Think of how often USC, Florida or Ohio St loses and that is how often the system does not work!
Now you can easily find this year’s “Going Up” teams (negative double digit turnovers last year and will likely have a stronger record this year) and those “Going Down” teams (positive double digit turnovers last year and will likely have a weaker record this year) on page 312 of the magazine. There are 17 teams in the “Going Down” box and 17 in the “Going Up” box.
Of the 17 teams in the Going Down Box, here are the top 5 that I feel will definitely have a weaker record this year. Buffalo (+19), Wake Forest (+17) Rice (+15), Utah (+13) and Minnesota (+12).
Of the 17 teams in the Going Up Box, here are the top 5 that I feel will definitely have a stronger record this year. Washington (-17), SMU (-13) Ohio U (-12) Michigan (-10) and UCLA (-10).
The magazine is out everywhere right now so make sure you pick up your copy this weekend. My magazine is unlike other preseason magazines which you buy, do a quick read thru and they sit on a shelf the rest of the year. If you buy Phil Steele’s College Football Preview it will be on your coffee table or desk ALL year, all dog-eared because of the number of times you open it throughout the season and you’ll still be using it in December.