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Archive for September, 2009

Phil’s Week 5 Top 25 Forecasts

September 30th, 2009 26 comments

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 71-16 82% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 5 out of 11 times including Marshall last week. Combined the first four weeks record is 76-22 78%!!

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Post Week 4 Non-Conference Projections

September 29th, 2009 No comments

NON-CONFERENCE RECORDS: The SEC continues to hold strong in all categories. They are the only conference projected to have a winning record vs other BCS conference teams. The Big Ten held onto their second place spot in the Overall Non-Conference Projections and the Non-Conference Projected Record vs FBS Teams. Aside from the SEC, the Projected Non-Conference Record vs BCS Teams has changed weekly as last week the Pac-10 jumped the Big 12 for second place, and this week the ACC made the move into second place. The MAC continues to hold the bottom spot in 2 of the 3 categories.

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More Week 4 News and Notes

September 29th, 2009 17 comments

I went through half of the play-by-plays on Sunday and early Monday for the Monday blog, these are the rest of the games that I went through on Monday for the Tuesday blog.

San Jose St has struggled this year but got a key addition in PS#8JC RB Lamon Muldrow. Muldrow got his first start vs Cal Poly and he delivered with 184 yards rushing on 20 carries. San Jose St actually trailed until late 3Q when CP fumbled at their own 9 and San Jose St three plays later had a TD for a 13-9 lead. The other key play came when SJS on 3rd & 3 at their own 27 protecting their 4 point lead with 5:00 to go, got a 71 yard run by Muldrow down to the 2 and a TD on the next play for some breathing room.

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Week 4 News and Notes

September 28th, 2009 10 comments

Mississippi came in with their highest ranking at #4 since Archie Manning was their QB. South Carolina came into the game 1-31 against Top 5 foes. SC managed to pull the upset in the Thurs night game. At the half, SC did have a 186-51 yard edge with the key play being when Ole Miss faked a FG from the SC24 and were stopped with 5:09 left in the 2Q. SC went 73 yards for a FG to lead 6-3 at half. Trailing 16-10, Ole Miss punted on 4th & 1 from their own 42 and their final drive got to the SC32 but their 4th down pass fell incomplete with 1:20 left. Jevan Snead had the worst game of his career hitting just 7 of 21 for 107 yards…

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What a Weekend!

September 27th, 2009 2 comments

WOW! There were a lot of unexpected results this past Saturday. I will delve deeply into them during the course of the week, especially in my Monday and Tuesday News & Notes. In the Monday News & Notes I will have gone through 31 games’ play-by-plays and the Tuesday News & Notes will involve the 30 games’ play-by-plays that I will go through on Monday for the Tuesday News & Notes addition. There are already a lot of great facts in there.

Amazingly this past weekend, four Top 10 teams lost which two more Top 5 teams going down. It seems like over the last three years parody has indeed caught up with college football. The flu bug has played a factor in some losses, like Ole Miss vs South Carolina and it will be very interesting to see if any team can go unbeaten once again this year.

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Week 3 NFL Forecasts

September 26th, 2009 No comments

Here are some notes from my reading since Tuesday and an injury list as of this morning plus all of my NLF selections for the week.

Washington win over #3 USC was the 9th time since the debut of the coaches poll in 1950 that a team from a current BCS conference league went winless the previous year and then upset a ranked team the next year. In 1958 #3 Ohio St lost to a Northwestern team that was 0-9 in 1957 and that upset by Washington tied Northwestern for the higest ranked team that a previous years winless team knocked off.

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Week 4 Injury Report

September 26th, 2009 4 comments

Here are some notes from my reading since Tuesday and an injury list as of this morning.

Washington win over #3 USC was the 9th time since the debut of the coaches poll in 1950 that a team from a current BCS conference league went winless the previous year and then upset a ranked team the next year. In 1958 #3 Ohio St lost to a Northwestern team that was 0-9 in 1957 and that upset by Washington tied Northwestern for the higest ranked team that a previous years winless team knocked off.

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Week 4 Picks for Every FBS Game

September 25th, 2009 4 comments

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

This week I am also listing the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games. If you check out my daily blogs on July 30th, July 20th, July 15th, etc, you will see that I have developed a new power rating which takes the yards and points gained against an opponent and factors in that opponents grade to give a team an individual game rating. Read more…

College Upset of the Week: Marshall Over Memphis

September 24th, 2009 3 comments

MARSHALL OVER MEMPHIS – I will come right back with the Thundering Herd to bag a second straight upset this week. Keep in mind in my Top 25 forecasts I have picked FOUR UNRANKED TEAMS to best RANKED teams this week. This one is under the radar. Darius Marshall is one of the best RB’s that you have never heard of and Marshall has a very underrated defensive front 7. I will call for the Herd to continue to gain confidence and move to 3-1 this week.

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Week 4 College Fantasy Picks

September 24th, 2009 2 comments

Last year on CBS College Sports I did a weekly segment every Thursday in which I picked a surprise QB, RB, WR and Defense of the Week plus gave them my Upset Pick of the Week. I will do the same thing this year for everyone here on my blog every Thursday!

Here are my picks for top QB (with reasoning), RB, WR and Defenses of the Week plus an Upset Special. I also give you reasoning on 3 or 4 Others to Watch. Keep in mind these are NOT the obvious picks. I do not take the nation’s leading passer facing a weak secondary and pick him as my QB of the Week. These are mostly SURPRISE projections and I tell you why.

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