Week 4 Picks for Every FBS Game
For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.
This week I am also listing the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games. If you check out my daily blogs on July 30th, July 20th, July 15th, etc, you will see that I have developed a new power rating which takes the yards and points gained against an opponent and factors in that opponents grade to give a team an individual game rating.
Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections for the 4th Saturday of college Football!
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PHIL STEELE
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Computer PTS
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Computer Yards
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Weekly Poll
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+ / -
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Vegas
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| Fri, Sept 25 | ||||||
| Missouri at Nevada |
Nevada
|
Mizzou
|
Nevada
|
Mizzou
|
Mizzou
|
Mizzou
|
|
by 3
|
35-22
|
492-368
|
91%
|
by 9.75
|
by 7
|
|
| Sat, Sept 26 | ||||||
| LSU at Mississippi State |
LSU
|
LSU
|
LSU
|
LSU
|
LSU
|
LSU
|
|
by 21
|
30-18
|
356-329
|
98%
|
by 8
|
by 12.5
|
|
| Fresno State at Cincinnati |
Cincy
|
Cincy
|
Cincy
|
Cincy
|
Cincy
|
Cincy
|
|
by 10
|
39-26
|
502-393
|
86%
|
by 19.25
|
by 16.5
|
|
| South Florida at Florida State |
Fla St
|
Fla St
|
Fla St
|
Fla St
|
Fla St
|
Fla St
|
|
by 20
|
28-25
|
419-341
|
93%
|
by 6
|
by 14
|
|
| Southern Miss at Kansas |
Kansas
|
Kansas
|
Kansas
|
Kansas
|
Kansas
|
Kansas
|
|
by 10
|
38-24
|
492-375
|
83%
|
by 18.5
|
by 13.5
|
|
| North Carolina at Georgia Tech |
GT
|
GT
|
GT
|
GT
|
N Car
|
GT
|
|
by 4
|
23-20
|
369-308
|
55%
|
by .25
|
by 2.5
|
|
| Indiana at Michigan |
Mich
|
Mich
|
Mich
|
Mich
|
Mich
|
Mich
|
|
by 31
|
37-15
|
442-258
|
95%
|
by 21.25
|
by 20
|
|
| Rhode Island at Connecticut |
Conn
|
Conn
|
Conn
|
Conn
|
Conn
|
Conn
|
|
by 38
|
37-8
|
514-141
|
100%
|
by 37
|
N/A
|
|
| Minnesota at Northwestern |
Minn
|
Minn
|
NW
|
Minn
|
Minn
|
Minn
|
|
by 3
|
24-24
|
369-356
|
78%
|
by 1
|
by 1
|
|
| Buffalo at Temple |
Temple
|
Temple
|
Temple
|
Buffalo
|
Temple
|
Temple
|
|
by 7
|
24-18
|
336-279
|
71%
|
by 3.25
|
by 3.5
|
|
| Michigan State at Wisconsin |
Wisc
|
Wisc
|
Mich St
|
Wisc
|
Wisc
|
Wisc
|
|
by 4
|
27-27
|
375-365
|
54%
|
by 1.25
|
by 3
|
|
| Marshall at Memphis |
Marsh
|
Memphis
|
Memphis
|
Marsh
|
Memphis
|
Memphis
|
|
by 3
|
25-21
|
419-316
|
54%
|
by 1
|
by 3
|
|
| Wake Forest at Boston College |
BC
|
BC
|
BC
|
WF
|
WF
|
BC
|
|
by 7
|
24-17
|
322-263
|
61%
|
by .75
|
by 1.5
|
|
| San Diego State at Air Force |
AF
|
AF
|
AF
|
AF
|
AF
|
AF
|
|
by 10
|
38-16
|
464-276
|
95%
|
by 24.25
|
by 16.5
|
|
| Tennessee Tech at Kansas St |
Kan St
|
Kan St
|
Kan St
|
Kan St
|
Kan St
|
Kan St
|
|
by 42
|
38-8
|
539-151
|
98%
|
by 36
|
N/A
|
|
| UNLV at Wyoming |
UNLV
|
UNLV
|
Wyoming
|
UNLV
|
UNLV
|
UNLV
|
|
by 10
|
21-16
|
344-306
|
64%
|
by 4.75
|
by 3
|
|
| UTEP at Texas |
Texas
|
Texas
|
Texas
|
Texas
|
Texas
|
Texas
|
|
by 35
|
51-10
|
595-220
|
100%
|
by 41
|
by 36
|
|
| Arkansas at Alabama |
Bama
|
Bama
|
Bama
|
Bama
|
Bama
|
Bama
|
|
by 17
|
38-22
|
442-288
|
93%
|
by 18.25
|
by 17.5
|
|
| California at Oregon |
Cal
|
Cal
|
Cal
|
Cal
|
Cal
|
Cal
|
|
by 14
|
37-27
|
395-340
|
93%
|
by 6.75
|
by 5.5
|
|
| Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech |
Mia Fla
|
Mia Fla
|
VT
|
Mia Fla
|
VT
|
Mia Fla
|
|
by 6
|
26-25
|
358-357
|
69%
|
by 10
|
by 2.5
|
|
| Illinois at Ohio State |
Ohio St
|
Ohio St
|
Ohio St
|
Ohio St
|
Ohio St
|
Ohio St
|
|
by 10
|
31-15
|
465-310
|
93%
|
by 24.25
|
by 14
|
|
| TCU at Clemson |
Clem
|
Clem
|
Clem
|
Clem
|
TCU
|
Clem
|
|
by 7
|
24-18
|
302-250
|
60%
|
by 1.5
|
by 2.5
|
|
| Rutgers at Maryland |
Rutgers
|
Rutgers
|
MD
|
Rutgers
|
Rutgers
|
MD
|
|
by 7
|
26-26
|
407-388
|
86%
|
by 8
|
by PK
|
|
| UCF at East Carolina |
E Car
|
E Car
|
E Car
|
E Car
|
E Car
|
E Car
|
|
by 10
|
28-17
|
349-218
|
85%
|
by 11.5
|
by 10
|
|
| Pittsburgh at NC State |
NCSt
|
NCSt
|
NCSt
|
Pitt
|
Pitt
|
NCSt
|
|
by 1
|
25-25
|
334-316
|
67%
|
by 2
|
by 1
|
|
| Akron at Central Michigan |
C Mich
|
C Mich
|
C Mich
|
C Mich
|
C Mich
|
C Mich
|
|
by 28
|
35-12
|
442-315
|
83%
|
by 19.5
|
by 16.5
|
|
| Western Kentucky at Navy |
Navy
|
Navy
|
Navy
|
Navy
|
Navy
|
Navy
|
|
by 35
|
37-10
|
479-203
|
95%
|
by 37.75
|
by 29.5
|
|
| Idaho at Northern Illinois |
N ILL
|
N ILL
|
N ILL
|
N ILL
|
N ILL
|
N ILL
|
|
by 17
|
33-14
|
417-278
|
76%
|
by 19.25
|
by 17
|
|
| McNeese State at Tulane |
McNeese
|
McNeese
|
Tulane
|
Tulane
|
McNeese
|
Tulane
|
|
by 1
|
32-30
|
484-301
|
93%
|
by 5
|
N/A
|
|
| Louisiana-Monroe at FAU |
Fla Atl
|
ULM
|
Fla Atl
|
Fla Atl
|
ULM
|
Fla Atl
|
|
by 3
|
31-28
|
441-396
|
76%
|
by 1.5
|
by 3
|
|
| Troy at Arkansas State |
Troy
|
Ark St
|
Ark St
|
Troy
|
Troy
|
Ark St
|
|
by 1
|
24-21
|
357-325
|
73%
|
by .5
|
by 2
|
|
| Florida at Kentucky |
Fla
|
Fla
|
Fla
|
Fla
|
Fla
|
Fla
|
|
by 28
|
37-15
|
468-274
|
95%
|
by 27.25
|
by 21.5
|
|
| Colorado State at BYU |
BYU
|
BYU
|
BYU
|
BYU
|
BYU
|
BYU
|
|
by 31
|
37-16
|
525-235
|
88%
|
by 17
|
by 17
|
|
| Boise State at Bowling Green |
Boise
|
Boise
|
Boise
|
Boise
|
Boise
|
Boise
|
|
by 21
|
32-16
|
396-354
|
98%
|
by 17.75
|
by 16.5
|
|
| Grambling St atOklahoma State |
OKSt
|
OkSt
|
OKSt
|
OKSt
|
OKSt
|
OKSt
|
|
by 35
|
45-10
|
544-151
|
100%
|
by 37
|
N/A
|
|
| Arizona State at Georgia |
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
Georgia
|
|
by 24
|
36-21
|
412-220
|
98%
|
by 10.75
|
by 11.5
|
|
| Louisiana at Nebraska |
Neb
|
Neb
|
Neb
|
Neb
|
Neb
|
Neb
|
|
by 35
|
36-6
|
472-213
|
100%
|
by 30.5
|
by 28
|
|
| Ball State at Auburn |
Aub
|
Aub
|
Aub
|
Aub
|
Aub
|
Aub
|
|
by 43
|
39-10
|
512-228
|
100%
|
by 31.25
|
by 33
|
|
| Army at Iowa State |
IOWA St
|
IOWA St
|
IOWA St
|
IOWA St
|
IOWA St
|
IOWA St
|
|
by 4
|
27-17
|
414-268
|
79%
|
by 11.50
|
by 10
|
|
| North Carolina Central at Duke |
Duke
|
Duke
|
Duke
|
Duke
|
Duke
|
Duke
|
|
by 42
|
44-0
|
519-96
|
100%
|
by 55
|
N/A
|
|
| Maine at Syracuse |
Syracuse
|
Syracuse
|
Syracuse
|
Syracuse
|
Syracuse
|
Syracuse
|
|
by 28
|
35-13
|
484-196
|
100%
|
by 29
|
N/A
|
|
| Sam Houston State at Tulsa |
Tulsa
|
Tulsa
|
Tulsa
|
Tulsa
|
Tulsa
|
Tulsa
|
|
by 35
|
53-18
|
679-271
|
100%
|
by 34
|
N/A
|
|
| Northwestern State at Baylor |
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
Baylor
|
|
by 42
|
45-5
|
509-171
|
100%
|
by 45
|
N/A
|
|
| UAB at Texas A&M |
Tex A&M
|
Tex A&M
|
Tex A&M
|
Tex A&M
|
Tex A&M
|
Tex A&M
|
|
by 17
|
40-24
|
582-405
|
93%
|
by 14.5
|
by 14
|
|
| Middle Tenn St at North Texas |
N Tex
|
MT
|
N Tex
|
MT
|
MT
|
MT
|
|
by 3
|
31-24
|
396-391
|
76%
|
by 6.5
|
by 6
|
|
| Toledo at FIU |
Toledo
|
Toledo
|
Toledo
|
Toledo
|
Fla Int
|
Fla Int
|
|
by 1
|
29-28
|
403-397
|
68%
|
by 4
|
by PK
|
|
| Miami (OH) at Kent State |
Kent St
|
Kent St
|
Kent St
|
Kent St
|
Kent St
|
Kent St
|
|
by 10
|
30-22
|
361-339
|
64%
|
by 10
|
by 7
|
|
| Ohio at Tennessee |
Tenn
|
Tenn
|
Tenn
|
Tenn
|
Tenn
|
Tenn
|
|
by 21
|
30-8
|
402-150
|
100%
|
by 29.5
|
by 24
|
|
| Hofstra at Western Michigan |
W Mich
|
W Mich
|
W Mich
|
W Mich
|
W Mich
|
W Mich
|
|
by 31
|
37-16
|
449-291
|
100%
|
by 16
|
N/A
|
|
| Louisville at Utah |
Utah
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
Utah
|
|
by 10
|
30-20
|
407-285
|
90%
|
by 19.5
|
by 14
|
|
| Arizona at Oregon State |
Arizona
|
Oreg St
|
Arizona
|
Oreg St
|
Oreg St
|
Oreg St
|
|
by 4
|
22-14
|
335-330
|
73%
|
by 0
|
by 2.5
|
|
| Iowa at Penn State |
Penn St
|
Penn St
|
Penn St
|
Pen St
|
Penn St
|
Penn St
|
|
by 14
|
22-14
|
365-260
|
90%
|
by 6
|
by 10
|
|
| Cal Poly at San Jose State |
SJSt
|
SJSt
|
SJSt
|
SJSt
|
SJSt
|
SJSt
|
|
by 10
|
30-25
|
424-281
|
95%
|
by 14
|
N/A
|
|
| Vanderbilt at Rice |
Vandy
|
Vandy
|
Vandy
|
Vandy
|
Vandy
|
Vandy
|
|
by 14
|
28-14
|
326-301
|
90%
|
by 5.25
|
by 7
|
|
| Southern Utah at Utah State |
Utah St
|
Utah St
|
Utah St
|
Utah St
|
Utah St
|
Utah St
|
|
by 21
|
43-23
|
589-321
|
98%
|
by 29
|
N/A
|
|
| Notre Dame at Purdue |
ND
|
ND
|
ND
|
ND
|
ND
|
ND
|
|
by 24
|
35-25
|
473-387
|
95%
|
by 3
|
by 7
|
|
| Washington at Stanford |
Stan
|
Stan
|
Stan
|
Wash
|
Stan
|
Stan
|
|
by 10
|
25-22
|
396-351
|
51%
|
by 14.5
|
by 8.5
|
|
| Texas Tech at Houston |
TT
|
Houston
|
Houston
|
TT
|
TT
|
Houston
|
|
by 3
|
37-36
|
484-463
|
60%
|
by 4.5
|
by 1
|
|
| New Mexico State at New Mexico |
N Mex
|
N Mex
|
N Mex
|
N Mex
|
N Mex
|
N Mex
|
|
by 10
|
27-16
|
389-273
|
69%
|
by 13.5
|
by 10
|
|
| Washington State at USC |
USC
|
USC
|
USC
|
USC
|
USC
|
USC
|
|
by 52
|
47-2
|
660-120
|
100%
|
by 44.25
|
by 45.5
|
