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Week 4 Picks for Every FBS Game

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

This week I am also listing the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games. If you check out my daily blogs on July 30th, July 20th, July 15th, etc, you will see that I have developed a new power rating which takes the yards and points gained against an opponent and factors in that opponents grade to give a team an individual game rating.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections for the 4th Saturday of college Football!

PHIL STEELE
Computer PTS
Computer Yards
Weekly Poll
+ / -
Vegas
Fri, Sept 25
Missouri at Nevada
Nevada
Mizzou
Nevada
Mizzou
Mizzou
Mizzou
by 3
35-22
492-368
91%
by 9.75
by 7
Sat, Sept 26
LSU at Mississippi State
LSU
LSU
LSU
LSU
LSU
LSU
by 21
30-18
356-329
98%
by 8
by 12.5
Fresno State at Cincinnati
Cincy
Cincy
Cincy
Cincy
Cincy
Cincy
by 10
39-26
502-393
86%
by 19.25
by 16.5
South Florida at Florida State
Fla St
Fla St
Fla St
Fla St
Fla St
Fla St
by 20
28-25
419-341
93%
by 6
by 14
Southern Miss at Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
by 10
38-24
492-375
83%
by 18.5
by 13.5
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
GT
GT
GT
GT
N Car
GT
by 4
23-20
369-308
55%
by .25
by 2.5
Indiana at Michigan
Mich
Mich
Mich
Mich
Mich
Mich
by 31
37-15
442-258
95%
by 21.25
by 20
Rhode Island at Connecticut
Conn
Conn
Conn
Conn
Conn
Conn
by 38
37-8
514-141
100%
by 37
N/A
Minnesota at Northwestern
Minn
Minn
NW
Minn
Minn
Minn
by 3
24-24
369-356
78%
by 1
by 1
Buffalo at Temple
Temple
Temple
Temple
Buffalo
Temple
Temple
by 7
24-18
336-279
71%
by 3.25
by 3.5
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Wisc
Wisc
Mich St
Wisc
Wisc
Wisc
by 4
27-27
375-365
54%
by 1.25
by 3
Marshall at Memphis
Marsh
Memphis
Memphis
Marsh
Memphis
Memphis
by 3
25-21
419-316
54%
by 1
by 3
Wake Forest at Boston College
BC
BC
BC
WF
WF
BC
by 7
24-17
322-263
61%
by .75
by 1.5
San Diego State at Air Force
AF
AF
AF
AF
AF
AF
by 10
38-16
464-276
95%
by 24.25
by 16.5
Tennessee Tech at Kansas St
Kan St
Kan St
Kan St
Kan St
Kan St
Kan St
by 42
38-8
539-151
98%
by 36
N/A
UNLV at Wyoming
UNLV
UNLV
Wyoming
UNLV
UNLV
UNLV
by 10
21-16
344-306
64%
by 4.75
by 3
UTEP at Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
by 35
51-10
595-220
100%
by 41
by 36
Arkansas at Alabama
Bama
Bama
Bama
Bama
Bama
Bama
by 17
38-22
442-288
93%
by 18.25
by 17.5
California at Oregon
Cal
Cal
Cal
Cal
Cal
Cal
by 14
37-27
395-340
93%
by 6.75
by 5.5
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech
Mia Fla
Mia Fla
VT
Mia Fla
VT
Mia Fla
by 6
26-25
358-357
69%
by 10
by 2.5
Illinois at Ohio State
Ohio St
Ohio St
Ohio St
Ohio St
Ohio St
Ohio St
by 10
31-15
465-310
93%
by 24.25
by 14
TCU at Clemson
Clem
Clem
Clem
Clem
TCU
Clem
by 7
24-18
302-250
60%
by 1.5
by 2.5
Rutgers at Maryland
Rutgers
Rutgers
MD
Rutgers
Rutgers
MD
by 7
26-26
407-388
86%
by 8
by PK
UCF at East Carolina
E Car
E Car
E Car
E Car
E Car
E Car
by 10
28-17
349-218
85%
by 11.5
by 10
Pittsburgh at NC State
NCSt
NCSt
NCSt
Pitt
Pitt
NCSt
by 1
25-25
334-316
67%
by 2
by 1
Akron at Central Michigan
C Mich
C Mich
C Mich
C Mich
C Mich
C Mich
by 28
35-12
442-315
83%
by 19.5
by 16.5
Western Kentucky at Navy
Navy
Navy
Navy
Navy
Navy
Navy
by 35
37-10
479-203
95%
by 37.75
by 29.5
Idaho at Northern Illinois
N ILL
N ILL
N ILL
N ILL
N ILL
N ILL
by 17
33-14
417-278
76%
by 19.25
by 17
McNeese State at Tulane
McNeese
McNeese
Tulane
Tulane
McNeese
Tulane
by 1
32-30
484-301
93%
by 5
N/A
Louisiana-Monroe at FAU
Fla Atl
ULM
Fla Atl
Fla Atl
ULM
Fla Atl
by 3
31-28
441-396
76%
by 1.5
by 3
Troy at Arkansas State
Troy
Ark St
Ark St
Troy
Troy
Ark St
by 1
24-21
357-325
73%
by .5
by 2
Florida at Kentucky
Fla
Fla
Fla
Fla
Fla
Fla
by 28
37-15
468-274
95%
by 27.25
by 21.5
Colorado State at BYU
BYU
BYU
BYU
BYU
BYU
BYU
by 31
37-16
525-235
88%
by 17
by 17
Boise State at Bowling Green
Boise
Boise
Boise
Boise
Boise
Boise
by 21
32-16
396-354
98%
by 17.75
by 16.5
Grambling St atOklahoma State
OKSt
OkSt
OKSt
OKSt
OKSt
OKSt
by 35
45-10
544-151
100%
by 37
N/A
Arizona State at Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
by 24
36-21
412-220
98%
by 10.75
by 11.5
Louisiana at Nebraska
Neb
Neb
Neb
Neb
Neb
Neb
by 35
36-6
472-213
100%
by 30.5
by 28
Ball State at Auburn
Aub
Aub
Aub
Aub
Aub
Aub
by 43
39-10
512-228
100%
by 31.25
by 33
Army at Iowa State
IOWA St
IOWA St
IOWA St
IOWA St
IOWA St
IOWA St
by 4
27-17
414-268
79%
by 11.50
by 10
North Carolina Central at Duke
Duke
Duke
Duke
Duke
Duke
Duke
by 42
44-0
519-96
100%
by 55
N/A
Maine at Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse
by 28
35-13
484-196
100%
by 29
N/A
Sam Houston State at Tulsa
Tulsa
Tulsa
Tulsa
Tulsa
Tulsa
Tulsa
by 35
53-18
679-271
100%
by 34
N/A
Northwestern State at Baylor
Baylor
Baylor
Baylor
Baylor
Baylor
Baylor
by 42
45-5
509-171
100%
by 45
N/A
UAB at Texas A&M
Tex A&M
Tex A&M
Tex A&M
Tex A&M
Tex A&M
Tex A&M
by 17
40-24
582-405
93%
by 14.5
by 14
Middle Tenn St at North Texas
N Tex
MT
N Tex
MT
MT
MT
by 3
31-24
396-391
76%
by 6.5
by 6
Toledo at FIU
Toledo
Toledo
Toledo
Toledo
Fla Int
Fla Int
by 1
29-28
403-397
68%
by 4
by PK
Miami (OH) at Kent State
Kent St
Kent St
Kent St
Kent St
Kent St
Kent St
by 10
30-22
361-339
64%
by 10
by 7
Ohio at Tennessee
Tenn
Tenn
Tenn
Tenn
Tenn
Tenn
by 21
30-8
402-150
100%
by 29.5
by 24
Hofstra at Western Michigan
W Mich
W Mich
W Mich
W Mich
W Mich
W Mich
by 31
37-16
449-291
100%
by 16
N/A
Louisville at Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
by 10
30-20
407-285
90%
by 19.5
by 14
Arizona at Oregon State
Arizona
Oreg St
Arizona
Oreg St
Oreg St
Oreg St
by 4
22-14
335-330
73%
by 0
by 2.5
Iowa at Penn State
Penn St
Penn St
Penn St
Pen St
Penn St
Penn St
by 14
22-14
365-260
90%
by 6
by 10
Cal Poly at San Jose State
SJSt
SJSt
SJSt
SJSt
SJSt
SJSt
by 10
30-25
424-281
95%
by 14
N/A
Vanderbilt at Rice
Vandy
Vandy
Vandy
Vandy
Vandy
Vandy
by 14
28-14
326-301
90%
by 5.25
by 7
Southern Utah at Utah State
Utah St
Utah St
Utah St
Utah St
Utah St
Utah St
by 21
43-23
589-321
98%
by 29
N/A
Notre Dame at Purdue
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
by 24
35-25
473-387
95%
by 3
by 7
Washington at Stanford
Stan
Stan
Stan
Wash
Stan
Stan
by 10
25-22
396-351
51%
by 14.5
by 8.5
Texas Tech at Houston
TT
Houston
Houston
TT
TT
Houston
by 3
37-36
484-463
60%
by 4.5
by 1
New Mexico State at New Mexico
N Mex
N Mex
N Mex
N Mex
N Mex
N Mex
by 10
27-16
389-273
69%
by 13.5
by 10
Washington State at USC
USC
USC
USC
USC
USC
USC
by 52
47-2
660-120
100%
by 44.25
by 45.5

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  • fullkelly

    Phil, do you ever post your ATS winning % for college and NFL?

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    No I do not. I want PhilSteele.com to be as non-gambling related as possible. Any prediction on a game is always straight up. Thanks, Phil

  • fullkelly

    Dear Phil:

    Covers.com posted an interesting article today about TO margins so far this year. It's funny to me b/c you called it very early on in your “Turnovers = Turnaround” articles. I've used that strategy this year with stellar results. Anyway, I posted on the site and gave you a shout out (under username “thecarry”). You deserve it, and I'm sure most of the readers there already know you (or they should). It's just not surprising to me that the 2 turnaround teams you picked are San Francisco and Denver…and how about Tennessee on the other end! Brilliant, yet so simple. Anyway, here's the link to the article and posts. http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?th

    Best,
    Steve

  • fullkelly

    Dear Phil:

    Covers.com posted an interesting article today about TO margins so far this year. It's funny to me b/c you called it very early on in your “Turnovers = Turnaround” articles. I've used that strategy this year with stellar results. Anyway, I posted on the site and gave you a shout out (under username “thecarry”). You deserve it, and I'm sure most of the readers there already know you (or they should). It's just not surprising to me that the 2 turnaround teams you picked are San Francisco and Denver…and how about Tennessee on the other end! Brilliant, yet so simple. Anyway, here's the link to the article and posts. http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?th

    Best,
    Steve