Week 3 NFL Forecasts
Here are some notes from my reading since Tuesday and an injury list as of this morning plus all of my NLF selections for the week.
Washington win over #3 USC was the 9th time since the debut of the coaches poll in 1950 that a team from a current BCS conference league went winless the previous year and then upset a ranked team the next year. In 1958 #3 Ohio St lost to a Northwestern team that was 0-9 in 1957 and that upset by Washington tied Northwestern for the higest ranked team that a previous years winless team knocked off.
The last time Southern Miss traveled to Big 12 country was 2006 and they upset Nebraska 21-17. Southern also has the nations 2nd longest win steak (next to Florida).
Ron Zook said before the season “if Martez Wilson does not lead out team in tackles at the end of the year, we are in trouble”. He lost Martez his best defensive player to injury last week for the season.
Navy had just 128 rush yards vs Pitt last week which was Navy’s lowest total in 4 years and Pitt did not even have a bye the week prior.
Here are my forecasts for the NFL.
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TENNESSEE at NY JETS
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| TENNESSEE |
95
|
180
|
13
|
2
|
#18
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| NY JETS |
99
|
215
|
16
|
1
|
#24
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The Jets ended the Titans 10 game win streak LY with a 34-13 win & put a 409-281 yd edge on them. The Jets are following a very similar formula to LY when BAL coaxed Flacco along with the defense & OL guiding him along. While TEN returned 10 of 11 def starters TY the loss of Jim Schwartz to DET sent ripples along the secondary as they gave up 357 yds passing to HOU LY. The Jets won’t eat the cheese the media is feeding them about how good they are after LY’s collapse & get the win in a close game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 17 TENNESSEE 13 |
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KANSAS CITY at PHILADELPHIA |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| KANSAS CITY |
77
|
175
|
15
|
2
|
#23
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| PHILADELPHIA |
141
|
268
|
33
|
2
|
#6
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PHI played even with NO thru the 1st half LW. They fumbled the opening KO of the 2nd half & Kolb was int’d 2 plays into the following drive to set up 14 pts & momentum for the Saints. Kolb had 391 yds vs NO & gets a KC team that had 406 yds vs OAK at home LW but lost. PHI did get pretty beat up LW & WR Jackson, RB Westbrook & CB Samuels have missed practice this week. While Reid has lost 3 of his L4 before a bye KC is very young, Haley is overextending himself being the HC/OC/QB coach & loses his composure on the sidelines. PHI has a huge talent edge & will take out LW’s defeat on KC here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 28 KC 13 |
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NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| NY GIANTS |
140
|
228
|
29
|
2
|
#13
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| TAMPA BAY |
98
|
161
|
16
|
2
|
#5
|
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The Giants are off an emotional win vs DAL to ruin their stadium opener in LW’s SNF win. I am very concerned about the Giants string of injuries on defense to start the year (FS Phillips, DE Canty, DT Alford) traveling on a short week. Inc playoffs they are 17-4 on the road & take on a TB team without their starting Center & a defense that’s just as beat up as they are. The Giants bring a lot more physicality to the game than TB & Raheem Morris is way overmatched in the coaching department here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: NY Giants 34 TAMPA BAY 13 |
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NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| NY GIANTS |
140
|
228
|
29
|
2
|
#13
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| TAMPA BAY |
98
|
161
|
16
|
2
|
#5
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The Giants are off an emotional win vs DAL to ruin their stadium opener in LW’s SNF win. I am very concerned about the Giants string of injuries on defense to start the year (FS Phillips, DE Canty, DT Alford) traveling on a short week. Inc playoffs they are 17-4 on the road & take on a TB team without their starting Center & a defense that’s just as beat up as they are. The Giants bring a lot more physicality to the game than TB & Raheem Morris is way overmatched in the coaching department here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 34 TAMPA BAY 13 |
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GREEN BAY at ST LOUIS |
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
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ST
|
|
| GREEN BAY |
92
|
198
|
24
|
2
|
#29
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| ST LOUIS |
137
|
208
|
9
|
2
|
#26
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|
GB comes into this game with serious OL troubles as they are shuffling the unit for the 3rd week in a row & will be moving 3 players around for the loss of LT Clifton. STL is in the bottom 10 of my position rankings for 6 of 8 units & LW’s game vs WAS shouldn’t have been close as they were outgained 362-245. STL did sell the game out which is a surprise for a team that is 2-14 at home the L2Y. Bulger has been sacked 4 times in 64 pass att’s, a 50% comp rate with a woeful 4.9 ypa (RB Jackson has a 5.2 ypc) & STL also has OL issues as 1st RD DC RT Jason Smith is expected to miss.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: Green Bay 35 ST LOUIS 14 |
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ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| ATLANTA |
100
|
198
|
24
|
0
|
#11
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| NEW ENGLAND |
150
|
333
|
36
|
1
|
#4
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|
While its clear this is NOT the 2007 Patriots team due to the turnover on defense & a rusty Brady the Patriots will improve as the year goes on. They have 5 of 8 individual units in my top 10 for positions. ATL is off 2 home games vs foes I had as downgraded teams entering the season. I do like Matt Ryan & the Falcons have a slew of offensive weapons. Their defense has had the luxury of facing 2 RUN oriented teams & the secondary hasn’t really been tested. I am not surprised that fans are jumping off the NE bandwagon as they’ve set such a high standard of playing the L2Y but I refuse to overreact in a higher scoring game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 Atlanta 24 |
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NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| NEW ORLEANS |
87
|
320
|
33
|
2
|
#30
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| BUFFALO |
92
|
253
|
24
|
2
|
#3
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The Saints are off a big road win vs PHI & weather could be a factor here as there is a 40% chance of rain with winds around 15 mph. Brees is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now but the Saints injuries at RB is a bit of an issue. BUF’s offense has been a nice surprise with 357 ypg 29 ppg to start the season & NO’s defense is better than it’s #21 ranking as they have 7 takeaways. BUF’s OL has 41 combined starts coming into this game (#32 NFL) & I expect them to run the “sugar huddle” to wear out the NO defense. However, the Saints look to be the elite offense for 2009 & I think Sean Payton is the best offensive playcaller in the NFL right now.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 31 BUFFALO 17 |
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PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| PITTSBURGH |
91
|
293
|
16
|
1
|
#10
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| CINCINNATI |
45
|
240
|
18
|
2
|
#25
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PIT has won 8 straight games in CIN & their fans travel like no one else in the NFL so I expect 30% to 40% of the crowd to be in black & gold. PIT only has 2 sacks TY after leading the NFL with 54 LY & a breakout game is in the offing after CIN has faced 2 defenses that are in the process of transitioning to the 3-4. PIT has allowed 3 100 yd rushers in 83 games, have held Chad Ochocinco to just a single 100 yd receiving game & after facing 2 teams that pride themselves on physicality get a finesse offense with a QB trying to get into preseason shape.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: Pittsburgh 21 CINCINNATI 9 |
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DENVER at OAKLAND |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| DENVER |
123
|
198
|
17
|
1
|
#28
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| OAKLAND |
140
|
200
|
18
|
2
|
#15
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OAK stole a win from KC LW & it’s clear that JaMarcus Russell has a long way to go in his development (3 of 17 before LW’s game winning drive). However, the addition of Greg Ellis & Richard Seymour has added professionalism to the Raiders defense & I like how the players are playing hard for Cable. DEN is 2-0 with a top 10 offense & defense but barely beat CIN & thumped a Browns team that could very well be the worst in the NFL. DEN has yet to face a team with a quality run game & that is what OAK is centering itself on until the WR’s get up to speed & I think the Raiders get the win here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 24 DENVER 10 |
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JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| JACKSONVILLE |
148
|
233
|
28
|
2
|
#7
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| HOUSTON |
97
|
295
|
30
|
2
|
#16
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PHI played even with NO thru the 1st half LW. They fumbled the opening KO of the 2nd half & Kolb was int’d 2 plays into the following drive to set up 14 pts & momentum for the Saints. Kolb had 391 yds vs NO & gets a KC team that had 406 yds vs OAK at home LW but lost. PHI did get pretty beat up LW & WR Jackson, RB Westbrook & CB Samuels have missed practice this week. While Reid has lost 3 of his L4 before a bye KC is very young, Haley is overextending himself being the HC/OC/QB coach & loses his composure on the sidelines. PHI has a huge talent edge & will take out LW’s defeat on KC here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 28 KANSAS CITY 13 |
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CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| CLEVELAND |
42
|
203
|
13
|
1
|
#22
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| BALTIMORE |
174
|
225
|
33
|
1
|
#19
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The Ravens are off a great win vs SD with a last play stuff by Ray Lewis on RB Sproles to seal the win. BAL has 5 of their 8 units in my top 10 rankings. CLE is on the road for the 2nd straight week, have 6 of 8 units in the bottom 10 of my position rankings with an inexperienced QB/Center combo vs Haloti Ngata & the rest of the BAL defense. BAL will look for a shut out here after giving up 474 yds to SD & CLE simply doesn’t have the ability to compete
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PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 3 |
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WASHINGTON at DETROIT |
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|
Rushing
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Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| WASHINGTON |
140
|
205
|
23
|
1
|
#20
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| DETROIT |
61
|
200
|
10
|
1
|
#9
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WAS is off a hollow victory vs the Rams as they were booed off the field at home at the end. WAS drove inside the STL 10 4 times & came away with just 3 FG’s & Zorn had to defend his actions vs legendary Redskin Sonny Jergensen. DET caught an uninterested MIN team early & had a 10-0 lead with an 11-2 FD & 147-37 yd edge before Favre got into the game. While the game isn’t sold out here, WAS will find DET a tough out here as Zorn stays on the hot seat for another week.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 16 DETROIT 13 |
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SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| SAN FRANCISCO |
83
|
178
|
16
|
2
|
#2
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| MINNESOTA |
116
|
218
|
26
|
1
|
#17
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|
This is the 1st quality foe for MIN who were uninterested in the 1st halves vs CLE & DET. They outscored both teams 44-10 in the 2nd half & have 5 units of 8 units in the top 10 of my position rankings. Adrian Peterson has been looking forward to this game for a long time after being held to 14 yds in his rookie season by SF. The 49ers blasted an injury depleted SEA defense LW as Gore had 206 yds rushing (12.9) before leaving with a tweaked ankle. Both teams have similar philosophies but 3 of 4 offensive units rank in the bottom 10 of my individual unit rankings for SF who travel off an easy win to what will be a loud dome.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 30 San Fran 17 |
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CHICAGO at SEATTLE |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| CHICAGO |
88
|
208
|
20
|
1
|
#12
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| SEATTLE |
95
|
250
|
23
|
2
|
#21
|
|
Jim Mora Jr said the stew of early injuries are the most he’s seen in his 26 years of football but the good news is that none are expected to be season ending. I fully expect Seneca Wallace to get the start here. CHI is off a very lucky win vs PIT who should have won the game before a missed FG by Josh Reed turned the field position into CHI’s favor & they marched into position for the game winning FG. I expect a letdown for a CHI defense that will exhale after a strong performance without LB’s Urlacher & Tinoisamao, have to travel all the way to Qwest Field & face the loudest 12th man in the NFL.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 28 CHICAGO 17 |
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MIAMI at SAN DIEGO |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| MIAMI |
72
|
200
|
16
|
2
|
#31
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| SAN DIEGO |
63
|
260
|
20
|
3
|
#1
|
|
The Chargers are very beat up & face a desperate MIA team that finds itself at 0-2 after winning the AFC East LY. I expect MIA to try & duplicate LW’s offensive effort vs IND (239 rush yds 4.9 ypc 84 offensive plays!!) vs a SD defense that lost NT Jamal Williams for the year. However, they are going cross country on a short week vs a SD team that has one of the best QB in the NFL with a great matchup of TE Gates vs MIA’s safeties that are run stuffers & a liability vs the pass. SD is the better team with homefield edge despite the injuries.
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| PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 MIAMI 17 | |||||
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DENVER at OAKLAND |
|||||
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| DENVER |
123
|
198
|
17
|
1
|
#28
|
| OAKLAND |
140
|
200
|
18
|
2
|
#15
|
|
OAK stole a win from KC LW & it’s clear that JaMarcus Russell has a long way to go in his development (3 of 17 before LW’s game winning drive). However, the addition of Greg Ellis & Richard Seymour has added professionalism to the Raiders defense & I like how the players are playing hard for Cable. DEN is 2-0 with a top 10 offense & defense but barely beat CIN & thumped a Browns team that could very well be the worst in the NFL. DEN has yet to face a team with a quality run game & that is what OAK is centering itself on until the WR’s get up to speed & I think the Raiders get the win here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 24 DENVER 10 |
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INDIANAPOLIS at ARIZONA |
|||||
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| INDIANAPOLIS |
76
|
253
|
27
|
2
|
#27
|
| ARIZONA |
85
|
255
|
24
|
1
|
#14
|
|
This is a tough travel week for IND as they are off LW’s SNF game vs MIA & haven’t played in ARZ since 1990. I am worried about their defense as they were on the field for 84 snaps on MNF. IND usually works with 9 or 10 drives vs an NFL avg 12 drives a game though. Warner showed that he was just out of sync in Wk 1 as he sent an NFL record by hitting 24 of 26 pass att’s & have 4 units in my top 10 for positions. IND is 42-15 on the road but face a tough test with a Cardinals home crowd that will be electric in a SNF game vs a quality foe.
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A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.
You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com.
JOSH’S WK 4 FCS FORECAST
