Home > College Football Picks > Week 5 Picks for Every FBS Game

Week 5 Picks for Every FBS Game

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games. If you check out my daily blogs on July 30th, July 20th, July 15th, etc, you will see that I have developed a new power rating which takes the yards and points gained against an opponent and factors in that opponents grade to give a team an individual game rating.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections for the 5th Saturday of college Football

PHIL STEELE

Computer PTS

Computer Yards

Weekly Poll

+ / -

Vegas

VA Tech at Duke

VT

VT

VT

VT

VT

VT

VT 34-26

by 17

36-13

419-301

97%

by 22

by 16.5

Mich at Michigan St

Mich

Mich St

Mich St

Mich

Mich St

Mich St

MSU 26-20 (OT)

by 4

30-29

429-333

59%

by 1.75

by 2.5

Clem at Maryland

Clem

Clem

Clem

Clem

Clem

Clem

Maryland 24-21

by 24

32-13

383-297

93%

by 16

by 13

Wisc at Minnesota

Minn

Wisc

Minn

Wisc

Minn

Minn

Wisc 31-28

by 1

27-26

422-348

83%

by 5

by 3

UVA at N Car

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

UVA 16-3

by 14

25-10

329-218

90%

by 12.5

by 12.5

USF at Syracuse

USF

USF

USF

USF

USF

USF

USF 34-20

by 24

31-14

396-284

80%

by 13.75

by 6.5

E Car at Marshall

Marsh

Marsh

Marsh

E Car

E Car

E Car

E Carolina 21-17

by 7

23-22

374-353

67%

by 1.5

by 2.5

Tulane at Army

Army

Army

Army

Army

Army

Army

Tulane 17-16

by 7

26-18

346-281

53%

by 11.5

by 6.5

Toledo at Ball St

Toledo

Toledo

Toledo

Toledo

Toledo

Toledo

Toledo 37-30

by 10

34-28

471-344

76%

by 10

by 4.5

N’western at Purdue

Purdue

Purdue

Purdue

Purdue

Purdue

Purdue

N’Western 27-21

by 10

34-22

427-313

69%

by 9

by 7

Arkansas St at Iowa

Iowa

Iowa

Iowa

Iowa

Iowa

Iowa

Iowa 24-21

by 28

34-7

440-200

100%

by 34.25

by 21

Bama at Kentucky

Bama

Bama

Bama

Bama

Bama

Bama

Bama 38-20

by 14

31-16

383-244

97%

by 16.25

by 16

Cincy at Mia (OH)

Cincy

Cincy

Cincy

Cincy

Cincy

Cincy

Cincy 37-13

by 42

46-11

436-384

100%

by 33

by 28.5

Temple at E Mich

Temple

Temple

E Mich

Temple

Temple

Temple

Temple 24-12

by 20

30-22

356-329

57%

by 7

by 6

Kan St at Iowa St

K-St

K-St

K-St

K-St

K-St

Iowa St

K-St 24-23

by 10

28-22

433-344

55%

by 0.5

by 3

LSU at Georgia

Georgia

Georgia

Georgia

LSU

Georgia

Georgia

LSU 20-13

by 7

32-27

427-285

52%

by 6.75

by 3


Penn St at Illinois

Penn St

Penn St

Illinois

Penn St

Penn St

Penn St

Penn St 35-17

by 7

26-20

394-358

93%

by 10.5

by 7

UCLA at Stanford

UCLA

Stanford

Stanford

Stanford

Stanford

Stanford

Stanford 24-16

by 1

24-21

351-311

66%

by 2.5

by 5

Wash at Notre Dame

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND 37-30 (OT)

by 10

31-17

477-313

57%

by 14

by 12.5

Fla St at Boston Coll

BC

BC

BC

Fla St

BC

Fla St

BC 28-21

by 1

24-23

342-318

72%

by 2.25

by 4

NCSt at Wake

WF

WF

WF

NCSt

NCSt

WF

Wake 30-24

by 1

25.4-25

414-358

69%

by 3.5

by 1.5

C  Mich at Buffalo

C Mich

C Mich

C Mich

C Mich

C Mich

C Mich

CM 20-13

by 14

35-21

361-346

90%

by 10.5

by 7.5

Memphis at UCF

UCF

UCF

UCF

UCF

UCF

UCF

UCF 32-14

by 3

23-17

329-308

55%

by 10.75

by 7

Air Force at Navy

Navy

AF

AF

Navy

Navy

Navy

Navy 16-13 (OT)

by 1

26-23

358-349

53%

4.75

by 2.5

W Mich at N Illinois

N ILL

N ILL

N ILL

N ILL

N ILL

N ILL

N Illinois 38-3

by 3

27-20

422-358

53%

by 9.25

by 6.5

N Mex at Tex Tech

TT

TT

TT

TT

TT

TT

TT 48-28

by 46

43-3

535-192

97%

by 42.5

by 35

Florida Int’l at ULM

ULM

ULM

ULM

FIU

ULM

ULM

ULM 48-35

by 10

31-24

411-316

66%

by 4.75

by 6

Ohio at BG

Ohio

Ohio

BG

BG

BG

BG

Ohio 44-37

by 7

25-22

369-361

83%

by 4.25

by 3

Wyom at FAU

FAU

FAU

FAU

Wyoming

FAU

FAU

WY 30-28

by 14

22.1-22

447-325

53%

by 1.5

by 3.5

UNLV at Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada

Nevada 63-28

by 1

32-27

497-353

80%

by 3

by 4.5

#9 Ohio St at Indy

Ohio St

Ohio St

Ohio St

Ohio St

Ohio St

Ohio St

OSU 33-14

by 28

29-8

360-225

90%

by 26

by 17

#21 Miss at Vandy

Miss

Miss

Miss

Miss

Miss

Miss

Miss 23-7

by 17

24-11

346-291

100%

by 15.5

by 8

Oregon St at Ariz St

Az St

Az St

Az St

Oreg St

AZ St

Az St

Oreg St 28-17

by 4

26-16

327-268

59%

by 8.25

by 4.5

Kent St at Baylor

Baylor

Baylor

Baylor

Baylor

Baylor

Baylor

Baylor 31-15

by 35

38-14

492-218

87%

by 28

by 21

S Car St at S Carolina

S Car

S Car

S Car

S Car

S Car

S Car

S Car 38-14

by 28

38-5

526-119

100%

by 39

by 37

GA Tech at Miss St

GT

GT

GT

GT

GT

GT

GA Tech 42-31

by 10

28-21

361-349

90%

by 6

by 5.5

Texas A&M vs Ark

Ark

Tex A&M

Ark

Ark

Ark

Ark 47-19

by 7

35-31

472-423

60%

Even

by 1

Tulsa at Rice

Tulsa

Tulsa

Tulsa

Tulsa

Tulsa

Tulsa

Tulsa 27-10

by 21

41-20

451-326

93%

by 14.25

by 16

Aub at Tenn

Tenn

Tenn

Tenn

Aub

Tenn

Tenn

Auburn 26-22

by 3

33-28

407-305

62%

by 7.5

by 2

UC Davis at Boise

Boise

Boise

Boise

Boise

Boise

Boise

Boise 34-16

by 49

50-3

568-162

100%

by 53

by 43

USC at California

Cal

USC

USC

USC

Cal

USC

USC 30-3

by 3

26-23

370-332

57%

by 3.5

by 4.5

Okla at Miami (FL)

Mia Fla

Okla

Okla

Okla

Okla

Okla

Miaim 21-20

by 1

30-20

378-324

70%

by 18.5

by 7.5

SMU at TCU

TCU

TCU

TCU

TCU

TCU

TCU

TCU 39-14

by 17

37-11

502-250

100%

by 31

by 28

NMSt at SDSt

SDSt

SDSt

SDSt

SDSt

SDSt

SDSt

SDSt 34-17

by 28

31-15

431-236

73%

by 14

by  17

Houston at UTEP

Houston

Houston

Houston

Houston

Houston

Houston

UTEP 58-41

by 3

45-27

548-399

97%

by 16.5

by 15.5

Wash St at  #16 Oreg

Oreg

Oreg

Oreg

Oreg

Oreg

Oreg

Oregon 52-6

by 28

42-11

525-230

97%

by 33.25

by 32.5

Colo St at Idaho

Idaho

Colo St

Colo St

Colo St

Colo St

Colo St

Idaho 31-29

by 3

29-27

371-369

73%

by 5.75

by 3




  • Adam Billings

    What do you think about tonight’s game…..Pitt @ UL

  • Thomas Lewis

    Where is the Pitt/Louisville prediction?

  • Ryan Martin

    Phil,

    I really enjoy looking at your picks each week. I also think your power ratings are some of the most accurate out there. I was just wondering what factors you use to create your power ratings. I know you talk about yards per point. Is that basically how you determine the power ratings, or are there other factors that you consider important? Just curious. Thanks for your weekly updates. Always a good read.

    Thanks,
    Ryan

  • Newman

    Phil, I love this poll and picking games, thanks for all your hard work and your mag! The Vegas lines on your above chart is missing…

  • Name

    where is the section for the Vegas lines?

  • Name

    Phil, your computer's giving the Illini a lot of credit there.

  • docjb

    Phil, where are the running totals for the season for each of these columns?

  • David Slater

    Hi Phil,

    Do you have any analysis for tonights games, Friday night college football games

    Thanks,

  • Sam

    Phil I think you should get up a little earlier in the week and predict the midweek games from now…Just a thought…Love you work

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Great idea. I will have someone update that for next weeks post. Thanks, Phil

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Thanks for pointing that out. It should be all fixed now. Phil

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Thanks for pointing that out. It should be all fixed now. Phil

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Ryan, I currently have nine sets of power ratings that include everything from ypp to injuries, past week stats, garbage yards, etc. They are constantly updated so my computer has a very accurate outlook on the game. Many things factor into the numbers that you see. Thanks for writing, Phil

  • Anonymous

    Phil, what do you think about FSU-BC?

    I was surprised to see you pick BC to win SU. FSU is about as unpredictable as they come, but I don’t think BC is very good. Is there a match-up that you like with BC?

  • http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/notes.php?id=889795365 batteman

    Hey Phil,
    didn’t you pick air force in your upset special in your top 25 picks? you have here navy by 1.. i think this is nevadas week to bounce back and i have them winning by a little more than 1.. i like the idaho pick they have played suprisingly well so far this year.. curious on your thoughts about the Ohio @ Bowling Green game? and the UCLA @ Stanford game? i think bowling green has played decent this year and may have a better shot.. and Prince is still out for UCLA so i like stanford.. thoughts?

  • BJ

    Phil, I’ve e-mailed Debbie 3x, Rolf 2x and left 3 messages with your staff and no one is bothering to answer anything. so, I’ll try this forum.

    On page 314 of your College Football mag you mention “we will track each teams starts lost for the upcoming season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have reamined healthy etc…AND WE WILL UPDATE THEM WEEKLY.”

    I cannot find this page on your website, either one………help!

    thanks

  • jeffstahl

    Phil- I submitted my Indiana football blog a couple days ago to Jessica, it is not up, it is MUCH better than the Ohio St. blog I just read. It has a lot of good stuff. Help please! Thanks :-)

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Jeff, where are you looking at? I went to the Indiana blog http://philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blo… is this not yours?

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    BJ, we are currently working on getting that on the website. Each week our Conference Coordinators will update them and it will be on the “team pages” under start charts/starters lost. Thanks for pointing it out and look for it on the website by next week, Phil

  • jeffstahl

    Phil, sorry, it didn't say “BLOG UP NOW” in red next to Indiana where you can select team pages, I appreciate you putting it up and letting me know, what do you think of the blog? Thanks Phil.

  • Bill hartman

    Phil
    You year after year overate Cal. Let's face it they are a fraud. Tedford can't win the big ones. His reputation as a QB guru is nonsense. Cal hasn't had a decent QB since AAron Rodgers. The last two weeks have been pathetic. What gives

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Quarterbacks have not been Tedford’s strong point over the past few seasons, that is a fair assessment but one thing that has not been pointed out is the production of the Cal running game over the past 5 years as Jahvid Best, Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch have become household names in the Pac-10. Another issue that could be plaguing the QB’s in Berkeley in recent years is the turnover at the OC position which Tedford finally feels is firmly in place with the addition of Andy Ludwig who came over from the undefeated Sugar Bowl Champion Utah Utes this year and has drastically helped QB Kevin Riley with his confidence and technique no matter what happened against Oregon and USC.

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Quarterbacks have not been Tedford’s strong point over the past few seasons, that is a fair assessment but one thing that has not been pointed out is the production of the Cal running game over the past 5 years as Jahvid Best, Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch have become household names in the Pac-10. Another issue that could be plaguing the QB’s in Berkeley in recent years is the turnover at the OC position which Tedford finally feels is firmly in place with the addition of Andy Ludwig who came over from the undefeated Sugar Bowl Champion Utah Utes this year and has drastically helped QB Kevin Riley with his confidence and technique no matter what happened against Oregon and USC.