Last year only TWO NFL division champs repeated. This year 5 of last year’s division champs have a combined record of 2-13 after 3 weeks! Carolina, Miami and Tennessee are all 0-3. Pittsburgh and Arizona are each 1-2. It looks like another year of change in the parity driven NFL.

Here are my forecasts for the NFL for this week.

OAKLAND AT HOUSTON

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
OAKLAND	126	170	20	3	#17
HOUSTON	137	265	27	2	#6

This is the 5th meeting in 6 years for these teams with the Raiders beating HOU 27-16. Vs a depleted HOU defense Russell had 236 yds passing (72%) with 2 TD’s. Compare that to the 1^st 3 games of 2009 where he has avg’d 126 ypg (41%) with a 1-4 ratio. OAK’s strength is it’s run game (103 ypg 3.9) & get a HOU team that is allowing 205 ypg (6.3) on the ground. OAK does have a good pass defense as well but HOU will have more weapons overall on offense & are going to be very angry after how LW’s game ended vs JAX.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 20 Oakland 13

TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
TAMPA BAY	73	185	7	2	#3
WASHINGTON	155	258	25	2	#8

This is the 7th meeting in 6 years including playoffs but the schemes are vastly different from the last meeting in 2007. It’s disturbing that WAS who was a borderline playoff team before the season, has only put up 9 & 14 points to a pair of teams that are 3-35 the last 2 years. The Redskins not only have to win, they have to win BIG here. TB is switching to 2nd year QB Josh Johnson who was a 5th RD DC in 2008 with no starts under his belt leading a team that earned 86 yards of offense last week at home. I think the Redskins get the win here as the offense looks good for 1 week with Portis getting a nice game.

PHIL’S FORECAST :  WASHINGTON 23 TAMPA BAY 13

NY JETS AT NEW ORLEANS

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
NY JETS	92	168	13	1	#25
NEW ORLEANS	113	248	28	2	#24

The Jets will be without their #2 CB Lito Sheppard & their nickel CB Donald Strickland vs the #1 offense in the NFL. I think the Jets will try to come in & knock Brees out of his comfort zone (working with a #3 LT) much like they did vs NE. However, the Saints will have their entire complement of WR’s back with Moore returning & a massive crowd edge. I admit that I am impressed with NO’s #10 defense but they’ve faced 2 inexperienced QB’s in their 1st starts & Bills QB Edwards working with a patchwork OL in front. Brees has passed for 332 yards per game (68%) with a 29-6 ratio in his last 9 home games & a quick start combined with a great home crowd here will have Sanchez make some mistakes here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEW ORLEANS 30 NY JETS 17

DALLAS AT DENVER

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
DALLAS	126	114	19	2	#12
DENVER	101	220	22	1	#31

DEN finds itself 3-0 with the #9 offense & #1 defense backing up their record. DAL is off a big Monday Nite win with the #3 offense but the #26 defense. DAL has only made 3 sacks in 113 opposing QB pass attempts & has given up 189 yards per game rushing (4.7). DEN has a very good OL for RB’s Buckhalter & Moreno (138 yards per game, 5.4 combined) to work with & Orton has only been sacked 3 times in 88 pass attempts so far. I think DAL will play better on the road but DEN gets a squeaker win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : DENVER 28 DALLAS 27

SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
SAN DIEGO	41	228	18	2	#1
PITTSBURGH	91	245	21	2	#4

The Steelers simply aren’t the same without Polamalu in the lineup. I think he would have made a play on CIN’s final drive to preserve the win much like he did last year in the 11-10 victory. PIT will be without RB Parker here but I think Mendenhall will do just fine here. SD beat MIA at home last week but only after they knocked out Pennington & this is the first road game without Center Hardwick & NT Williams. I like how Rivers has established himself as a top 5-7 QB in the NFL & he is better than his 85.1 QBR & Tomlinson is expected to play here. NBC gets another great game for Sun Nite football.

PHIL’S FORECAST : PITTSBURGH 29 SAN DIEGO 19

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST’s
TENNESSEE	118	218	21	3	#30
JACKSONVILLE	105	230	23	2	#29

The Titans are the best 0-3 team in the NFL. While the loss of Haynesworth & DC Jim Schwartz has set them back their special teams play has really suffered dropping from 11th last year to 30th now. JAX is in the process of switching to a 3-4 scheme & only has 3 sacks in 105 opposing QB attempts. TEN has a very good OL & finally get last year’s #1 receiver TE Scaife (58 rec, 9.7) on the field here. JAX won’t have a home edge here which benefits the Titans who should get their 1st win of the season here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : Tennessee 20 JACKSONVILLE 10

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
CINCINNATI	114	210	24	1	#20
CLEVELAND	97	187	14	3	#18

I think the Bengals took a big step forward by taking advantage of a Steeler defense without Polamalu last week for their last second win. The key here will be if they can handle success & put things away early vs a CLE team (#30 & #32, -7 TO’s) making a QB change to Anderson who only had 30 snaps in preseason. CLE is just looking to be competitive in this game & has only 1 offensive TD in 98 offensive drives. Cedric Benson (293 yds, 4.4) has been a nice addition to the offense & the Bengals have a pass rush (10 sacks) now that should make quick work vs a Browns team with 13 players on the injury report.

PHIL’S FORECAST : Cincinnati 31 CLEVELAND 13

DETROIT AT CHICAGO

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
DETROIT	74	188	15	2	#15
CHICAGO	106	280	29	2	#10

I salute Jim Schwartz for breaking the Lions 19 game losing streak but the talent level is much better than last year’s unit as they have 15 new starters for 2009. After the game Schwartz noted the players were celebrating like a team that won a playoff game which is understandable. CHI struggled after a tough game vs PIT & having to fly cross-country to SEA looking sluggish to start the game. They were a great play by Hester away from losing to a team without 7 starters. I do think CHI will be better with Cutler getting more snaps (242 ypg, 74%, 5-1 ratio the last 2 weeks) but they are beat up on defense & the Lions are believers making this a surprisingly close game.

PHIL’S FORECAST : CHICAGO 24 DETROIT 20

SEATTLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
SEATTLE	108	205	14	1	#14
INDIANAPOLIS	130	310	31	2	#26

For the 2nd week in a row the Seahawks could be without 7 starters but now they have to travel to IND who is off a big win vs the Cardinals. While Brees is getting the publicity for being the best QB in the NFL, I think you have to realize that Manning has led the Colts to 12 straight wins while throwing for 269 ypg (71%) with a 24-5 ratio. IND does have some defensive issues right now with Freeney (quad) expected to miss some time but they have only allowed 7 passing TD’s in their last 19 games. I think the Colts will put this away early in a lower scoring game as Caldwell will want Addai & Brown to get some work vs a SEA defense giving up 139 ypg (5.6!!) on the ground.

PHIL’S FORECAST : INDIANAPOLIS 28 SEATTLE 10

BUFFALO AT MIAMI

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
BUFFALO	72	188	16	2	#19
MIAMI	152	218	20	2	#21

Yes, the Dolphins are starting Chad Henne here but I am not as down on him as many are. He’s a 4 year starter from a major college who knows the MIA system. He also learned from one of the smartest QB’s in Pennington on how an NFL QB is supposed to break down tape. MIA also has a pretty good OL to protect him & a solid run game (161 yards per game, 4.7) vs a BUF defense that will be out 4 starters with 3 in the secondary. Henne also has a better arm which will help MIA take advantage of Ginn’s deep speed. Keep in mind, Flacco, Ryan & Sanchez all won their 1st starts & Stafford did fairly well vs NO in his 1st start as well. It’s expected to be 89 deg in MIA on Sunday & I think the Dolphins run game wears down the Bills.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI 21 BUFFALO 17

ST LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
ST LOUIS	92	188	4	2	#16
SAN FRAN	133	220	30	2	#11

The 49ers will be without Frank Gore for 2 or 3 weeks with a high ankle sprain but Shaun Hill is 6-0 at home as a starter averaging 201 yards per game (69%) with a 9-3 ratio. The Rams will start Kyle Boller here & I think the fact he’s taken less of a pounding behind STL’s porous OL’s is a help. However, he may be without both starting OT’s & the Rams lost #1 WR Robinson (13 rec, 12.8) last week. I really like how Singletary is handling the 49ers by keeping games close & hoping to find a way to win in the 4Q. I feel there will be some letdown after how well they played last week vs MIN with Gore leaving early in the 1Q only to lose on a last second Favre TD & this is a closer than expected game.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  ST LOUIS 23 SAN FRANCISCO 24