Week 5 Saturday Thoughts
Make sure to check out the Saturday Results - updated all day Saturday!
I just got around to checking the polls mid-week and I did so after reading a rant by Doug Lesmerises of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He noted that the coaches poll CLICK HERE FOR LATEST POLLS and the Harris poll BOTH had Penn State ranked ahead of Iowa! That is ridiculous as Iowa is unbeaten and beat Penn St AT Penn St and the Lions 3 wins were over creampuffs. Iowa deserves to be in the top 10 and Penn St maybe at the bottom of the top 20. Good call Doug.
Miscellaneous Thoughts:
Heisman – Tebow and McCoy still lead the pack but there are some players that have entered the mix and with injuries to Bradford and now Tebow… so you never know!
NFL – Last year only TWO NFL division champs repeated. This year 5 of last year’s division champs have a combined record of 2-13 after 3 weeks! Carolina, Miami and Tennessee are all 0-3. Pittsburgh and Arizona are each 1-2. It looks like another year of change in the parity driven NFL.
Suspension - Texas Tech suspended star G Brandon Carter last weekend.
Bama – QB Greg McElroy of Alabama completed only 6 of 18 passes in the first half vs Virginia Tech but since then he has hit 57 of 75 (76%) for 844 yards and 7 TD’s and he is #3 in the nation in pass efficiency.
The Upset Poll – The upset poll is off to its usual solid season. Michigan gets the call this week with 50.5% of the vote. Georgia Tech is #2 with 9.9% and Ole Miss is #3 with 7.6% of the vote. Last week the top picks on the PhilSteele.com fan vote were: Iowa, Stanford, Georgia Tech and South Carolina and all 4 were non-ranked teams that UPSET ranked foes!!
The Top 5 Upset Picks
Top 25 teams that will lose to non-ranked teams today:
1. MICHIGAN (50.5%)
2. GEORGIA TECH (9.9%)
3. MISSISSIPPI (7.6%)
4. PENN ST (5.7%)
5. HOUSTON (4.5%)
Now let’s take a look at my computers teams of the month for September. Remember these ranking take into account the yards and points a team accumalated (with garbage yards and points deducted) vs the strength of their opponents and weighing in on the home edge as well. Here are the teams of September and they are ranked 1-120!. The number following the team is their average team individual game grade.
| 1 | FLORIDA | 100.79 |
| 2 | ALABAMA | 99.62 |
| 3 | TEXAS | 98.52 |
| 4 | OKLAHOMA | 95.24 |
| 5 | NEBRASKA | 93.43 |
| 6 | BOISE ST | 92.26 |
| 7 | USC | 90.96 |
| 8 | VIRGINIA TECH | 89.93 |
| 9 | OHIO ST | 89.65 |
| 10 | S CAROLINA | 89.51 |
| 11 | TENNESSEE | 89.24 |
| 12 | CINCINNATI | 88.48 |
| 13 | AUBURN | 87.45 |
| 14 | TCU | 86.08 |
| 15 | HOUSTON | 86.08 |
| 16 | BYU | 85.80 |
| 17 | GEORGIA TECH | 85.39 |
| 18 | MIAMI FL | 85.34 |
| 19 | NC STATE | 84.49 |
| 20 | CLEMSON | 84.36 |
| 21 | NOTRE DAME | 83.81 |
| 22 | OREGON | 83.81 |
| 23 | TEXAS A&M | 83.69 |
| 24 | MISSOURI | 83.67 |
| 25 | PENN ST | 83.53 |
| 26 | WAKE FOREST | 83.12 |
| 27 | UTAH | 82.71 |
| 28 | IOWA | 82.57 |
| 29 | STANFORD | 82.36 |
| 30 | USF | 82.02 |
| 31 | ARIZONA | 81.88 |
| 32 | UCLA | 81.49 |
| 33 | GEORGIA | 81.06 |
| 34 | WASHINGTON | 80.64 |
| 35 | CONNECTICUT | 80.64 |
| 36 | CALIFORNIA | 80.23 |
| 37 | ARIZONA ST | 79.93 |
| 38 | OKLAHOMA ST | 79.89 |
| 39 | FLORIDA ST | 79.82 |
| 40 | MICHIGAN | 79.13 |
| 41 | BAYLOR | 79.11 |
| 42 | WISCONSIN | 78.79 |
| 43 | N CAROLINA | 78.79 |
| 44 | KENTUCKY | 78.38 |
| 45 | PURDUE | 77.62 |
| 46 | WEST VIRGINIA | 77.62 |
| 47 | ARKANSAS | 77.18 |
| 48 | LSU | 77.07 |
| 49 | TULSA | 76.79 |
| 50 | PITTSBURGH | 76.31 |
| 51 | C MICHIGAN | 76.24 |
| 52 | MICHIGAN ST | 75.83 |
| 53 | AIR FORCE | 75.28 |
| 54 | VANDERBILT | 75.21 |
| 55 | BOSTON COLL | 74.80 |
| 56 | COLORADO ST | 74.04 |
| 57 | NAVY | 74.04 |
| 58 | S MISS | 73.59 |
| 59 | KANSAS | 73.29 |
| 60 | MISS ST | 73.29 |
| 61 | TOLEDO | 73.22 |
| 62 | TEXAS TECH | 73.08 |
| 63 | OREGON ST | 73.01 |
| 64 | KANSAS ST | 72.88 |
| 65 | MIDDLE TENN | 72.81 |
| 66 | MINNESOTA | 72.46 |
| 67 | BOWLING GREEN | 71.36 |
| 68 | INDIANA | 70.88 |
| 69 | ILLINOIS | 70.86 |
| 70 | OHIO | 69.64 |
| 71 | UNLV | 69.37 |
| 72 | FRESNO ST | 69.03 |
| 73 | TEMPLE | 68.84 |
| 74 | NORTHWESTERN | 68.82 |
| 75 | IDAHO | 68.82 |
| 76 | N ILLINOIS | 68.68 |
| 77 | TROY | 68.68 |
| 78 | W MICHIGAN | 67.31 |
| 79 | UTAH ST | 67.10 |
| 80 | N TEXAS | 67.03 |
| 81 | LOUISVILLE | 66.92 |
| 82 | FAU | 66.18 |
| 83 | NEVADA | 65.91 |
| 84 | EAST CAROLINA | 65.59 |
| 85 | COLORADO | 65.52 |
| 86 | RUTGERS | 65.38 |
| 87 | LOUISIANA | 65.18 |
| 88 | ARKANSAS ST | 65.18 |
| 89 | SAN DIEGO ST | 65.11 |
| 90 | SMU | 65.08 |
| 91 | BUFFALO | 64.97 |
| 92 | WYOMING | 64.63 |
| 93 | SYRACUSE | 64.49 |
| 94 | ARMY | 64.28 |
| 95 | MARSHALL | 63.94 |
| 96 | VIRGINIA | 63.80 |
| 97 | UAB | 63.75 |
| 98 | MISSISSIPPI | 63.53 |
| 99 | UL MONROE | 63.53 |
| 100 | MEMPHIS | 63.46 |
| 101 | LOUISIANA TECH | 61.94 |
| 102 | MARYLAND | 61.19 |
| 103 | UCF | 60.91 |
| 104 | SAN JOSE ST | 59.13 |
| 105 | E MICHIGAN | 58.48 |
| 106 | AKRON | 58.37 |
| 107 | WASH ST | 58.30 |
| 108 | FIU | 57.84 |
| 109 | RICE | 57.54 |
| 110 | DUKE | 55.83 |
| 111 | UTEP | 54.11 |
| 112 | IOWA ST | 53.42 |
| 113 | TULANE | 53.26 |
| 114 | KENT ST | 52.73 |
| 115 | MIAMI, OH | 52.66 |
| 116 | HAWAII | 52.11 |
| 117 | BALL ST | 52.11 |
| 118 | NEW MEXICO | 50.39 |
| 119 | NEW MEXICO ST | 48.13 |
| 120 | WKU | 33.69 |
THE POWER POLL TOP 25
I have 9 total sets of power ratings. Here are 8 of those power ratings combined into one to make up the ninth in what I call the Power Poll Top 25.
| 1. Florida | ||||
| 2. Texas | ||||
| 3. Alabama | ||||
| 4. Oklahoma | ||||
| 5. USC | ||||
| 6. Ohio St | ||||
| 7. Iowa | ||||
| 8. Boise St | ||||
| 9. Nebraska | ||||
| 10. VA Tech | ||||
| 11. Georgia | ||||
| 12. TCU | ||||
| 13. LSU | ||||
| 14. Miami, Fl | ||||
| 15. Miss | ||||
| 16. Cincinnati | ||||
| 17. California | ||||
| 18. USF | ||||
| 19. GA Tech | ||||
| 20. Penn St | ||||
| 21.S Carolina | ||||
| 22. Houston | ||||
| 23. Kansas | ||||
| 24. Okla St | ||||
| 25. BYU |
FCS FORECASTS:
Check back after 12:30 ET for the latest FCS forecasts.
A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase. You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com.
JOSH’S WK 5 FCS FORECAST
