Phil’s Week 6 Top 25 Forecasts
Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 84-20 81% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 14 times. Combined the first five weeks record is 95-29 77%!!
Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!
#1 Florida at #4 LSU
| FLORIDA | 210 | 185 | 29 | 2.1 | •• |
| LSU | 120 | 170 | 17 | 2.3 | – |
My Forecast:
The winner of this game has won the last 3 national titles. UF has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999, but Meyer’s teams are 27-3 with more than a week to prepare. Last year Miles suffered his worst loss in 4 years at LSU, 51-21 (LSU only trailed 20-14 mid-3Q). LSU is off a last minute 20-13 win over Georgia in which they had a 19-11 FD edge and a 368-274 yard edge, but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a questionable celebration penalty. Florida luckily had a bye to get rested and hopefully Tebow will be healthy (concussion vs Kentucky). The dog has 3 outright upsets in this series since 2002. This is the toughest defense by far that LSU QB Jefferson has faced (averaging 184 yards per game, 7-2 ratio). LSU has won 32 consecutive Saturday night games at home, but Florida has edges on offense, defense and special teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 30 LSU 16
#2 Texas vs Colorado
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| COLORADO | 50 | 170 | 12 | 3.9 | – |
| TEXAS | 240 | 315 | 49 | 2.5 | • |
| CLICK HERE for the Last 12 Years Matchups |
My Forecast:
Since UT was upset in the Big 12 Title game in 2001 (knocked from National Title game) they are 5-0 winning by an average of 44-10 versus Colorado. QB McCoy is averaging 286 yards per game (71%) with a 9-5 ratio. Colorado lost to West Virginia last Thursday Night and is on a 3-10 run. QB Cody Hawkins is averaging 261 yards per game (52%) with a 7-7 ratio. Last year Texas had Oklahoma on deck and rolled Colorado in Boulder 38-14.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 45 Colorado 17
#3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| ALABAMA | 141 | 165 | 23 | 2 | • |
| MISSISSIPPI | 129 | 195 | 21 | 2.4 | – |
My Forecast:
The last 4 have only been decided by 3 points per game. Last time in Oxford, a controversial call overturned a Ole Miss completion to the Bama4 with :07 left and Alabama hung on for a 27-24 win. Last year Ole MIss trailed 24-3 at the half but scored 17 consecutive points in the 2H, falling just short 24-20. Nutt has 6 upsets vs Top 10 since 1998 and beat eventual National Champ Florida in the Swamp last year. Ole Miss QB Snead has struggled TY avg only 182 yards per game (51%) with a 9-5 ratio while Bama QB McElroy has excelled avg 217 yards per game (66%) with a 9-1 ratio. I picked Ole Miss to win the West at the start of the year and despite Alabama playing the best ball so far this year, I will call for the upset at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 23 Alabama 20
#5 Virginia Tech vs Boston College
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| BOST COLL | 112 | 120 | 16 | 2.7 | – |
| VA TECH | 188 | 225 | 29 | 1.9 | ••• |
My Forecast:
In their last visit here, Boston College upset #8 Virginia Tech on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. Last year BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 Virginia Tech 28-23 in the regular season at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. Tech QB Taylor is avg 174 yards per game (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Ryan Williams (PS#11) is 8th in NCAA in rushing yards (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 yards per game (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yards (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. While BC has shown progress under Shinskie, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 30 Boston College 13
#9 Ohio State vs Wisconsin
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| WISCONSIN | 95 | 135 | 14 | 3.3 | – |
| OHIO ST | 200 | 225 | 30 | 2.7 | • |
My Forecast:
Last year Ohio State went 80/12pl and QB Pryor scored on an 11 yd run with 1:08 left for the 20-17 win in Madison. Last week Wisconsin trailed 13-10 at the half, but unleashed the conference’s leading rusher Clay (582, 5.2) who had 159 yards and 3 TD’s in the 2H. The Big Ten’s most efficient passer QB Tolzien (209 yards per game, 66%, 9-3 ratio) got his 1st road win last week but now faces his 1st Top 35 defense. OSU won their 16th straight conference road game in a methodical 33-14 win at Indy (OSU 30-11 FD edge). The Bucks allowed their first points in 9Q but Indiana scored the last TD vs the backups with no time left on the clock. Pryor (171 yards per game, 58%, 8-5 ratio) is Ohio St’s leading rusher with 298 (5.4). RB Saine (294, 6.0) had 113 in his first start in place of the injured Herron (233, 3.6). Bucks are #10 NCAA rush D (83, 2.7) but the DL suffered a blow when top DT Larimore (knee out this week) was injured vs Indiana. OSU has huge edges on defense (#4-71) and special teams (#11-70) and hands the Badgers their first loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 33 Wisconsin 16
#10 TCU at Air Force
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| TCU | 170 | 163 | 24 | 2.4 | – |
| AIR FORCE | 221 | 58 | 15 | 1.8 | – |
My Forecast:
The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yards below their season avg the last 3 years! Last year Air Force was held to 161 yards with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10 at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 point 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. Air Force is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 yards per game rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 yards per game (1.8). Last week TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year last week and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot this week. TCU will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Tcu 27 AIR FORCE 13
#11 Miami (FL) vs Florida A&M
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| FLA A&M | 20 | 118 | 11.3 | 1.8 | – |
| MIAMI (FL) | 261 | 338 | 46.6 | 2.3 | – |
My Forecast:
Miami is off their 21-20 upset of Oklahoma, a very even game where each team had 21 FD’s and Miami had a 342-341 yard edge. They have a trip to UCF on deck and will probably suffer some letdown from last week’s win. The Rattlers come in at 4-0 and ranked #22 in the FCS. However, they may want to escape this game as healthy as possible as they have a showdown at #17 South Carolina St on deck in a game which very well could decide the MEAC Champion. Florida A&M is led by former Kentucky transfer Curtis Pulley (PS#17), who leads the MEAC in total offence (284 yards per game).
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 45 Florida A&M 10
#12 Iowa vs Michigan
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| MICHIGAN | 135 | 145 | 19 | 3.2 | – |
| IOWA | 195 | 230 | 26 | 2.7 | – |
CLICK HERE For Last 12 Years Matchups
My Forecast:
Iowa is just 2-10 vs Michigan (last met ‘06). The Hawks have dropped 3 straight conference home openers including getting upset the last 2 years. Iowa’s 5-0 for the 1st time since 1995 (1st time under Ferentz) and Iowa has won 9 straight thanks to a closer than expected win over Arkansas St last week. The Hawks led 21-7 in the 4Q when Stanzi threw a 75 yd pick six. Stanzi (215 yards per game, 59%, 8-7 ratio) has been inconsistent but the banged up offense got welcome news with the return of All-Big Ten LT Bulaga last week. The Hawks (122 rush yards per game, 4.1) haven’t allowed a rushing TD in 31Q’s. After a valiant 4Q comeback, Michigan lost in OT to their rivals Michigan St, 26-20 as the Wolves were out-first-downed 22-14 and outrushed 193-28. Despite a shoulder injury, QB Forcier (179 yards per game, 60%, 9-3) led his third 4Q comeback but he also threw an interception in overtime. After a hot start the Wolves’ ground game has stumbled vs BCS foes (122, 3.2) including just 28 yards last week. Michigan’s D is allowing 153 rush yards per game (4.2) with just 6 sacks TY. Iowa wins their 10th straight at the hands of the young Wolves.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 27 Michigan 20
#13 Oregon at UCLA
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| OREGON | 173 | 125 | 25 | 2.6 | – |
| UCLA | 117 | 215 | 23 | 2.8 | •• |
My Forecast:
UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last year and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 yards per game, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 games with injury. #2 QB, and last year’s starter, Craft (195 yards per game, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. Last year UCLA, on the road, only lost 31-24 as Oregon QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yards (Oregon did rush for 323 yards, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs Washington St a week after their domination of Cal. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yards at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos and Oregon will likely be without QB Masoli.
FORECAST: UCLA 24 Oregon 14
#14 Penn St vs Eastern Illinois
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| E ILLINOIS | -27 | 143 | 2.8 | 1.9 | – |
| PENN ST | 277 | 268 | 41.4 | 2.6 | – |
My Forecast:
Penn St got back on track last week after losing to Iowa as they defeat Illinois 35-17 with a 513-393 yd edge. Penn St is in a Big Ten sandwich as they host Minnesota next week. Last year vs Coastal Carolina the Nittany Lions showed little mercy running up a 66-10 final. Eastern Illinois comes in 4-1 and ranked #25 in the FCS. EIU is off a disheartening loss to OVC rival Eastern Kentucky (#16) in a game they led 24-16 before giving up 3 TD in less then 10 min including an int for a TD. The Panthers finish out the regular season with 5 straight OVC games and will likely just want to get out of town relatively healthy. While Penn St will likely put in the backups in the 2H look for them to put up some big numbers early.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 45 Eastern Illinois 3
#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| OKLA ST | 222 | 208 | 37 | 2.3 | • |
| TEXAS A&M | 159 | 318 | 31 | 2.4 | – |
My Forecast:
Road opener for Oklahoma St who is just 8-16 on the road losing by an avg of 19 points per game. The Cowboys are off a much needed bye (4 starters out two weeks ago). QB Robinson is avg 198 yards per game (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. WR Bryant (missed last game) has 17 rec (19.0) and should be 100%. The Aggies are off their first defeat of the season (first game vs a BCS school) after 3 cupcakes. QB Johnson is avg 327 yards per game (62%) with an 11-0 ratio. A&M comes in ranked #70 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 222 yards per game (56%) with a 5-1 ratio, after Ark’s Mallett shredded them for 4 TD’s last week, while Oklahoma St is #7 (233 yards per game, 56%, 4-4 ratio). Kyle Field is a tough place for opponents but Oklahoma St is ready to start playing up to its talent level.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma St 40 TEXAS A&M 30
#16 Kansas vs Iowa State
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| IOWA ST | 127 | 218 | 19 | 3.1 | •• |
| KANSAS | 169 | 348 | 37 | 1.7 | – |
My Forecast:
Homecoming and Big 12 opener for Kansas. Iowa St is off a loss to Kansas St and has dropped ten straight conference games by an avg of 19 points per game. Kansas is off a bye and is on a 21-1 run versus non-ranked foes, outscoring them by 27 points per game. QB Reesing is avg 284 yards per game (67%) with a 9-2 ratio. Iowa St QB Arnaud is avg 158 yards per game (53%) with a 7-4 ratio. Both teams are running the ball better this year (KU 209 yards per game, ISU 207 yards per game) but Iowa St RB Robinson is suffering from a groin injury (did not play last week after 1Q).
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 38 Iowa St 17
#17 Auburn at Arkansas
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| AUBURN | 168 | 240 | 32 | 2.2 | – |
| ARKANSAS | 152 | 320 | 34 | 2.5 | – |
My Forecast:
Arkansas is just 2-4 vs Auburn and hasn’t beaten Auburn at home since 2001. Ark trailed 20-10 late 3Q last year, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yard edge. Arkansas RB Smith rushed for 176 yards (5.0) in that game. The visitor is 6-1. This is the 2nd straight tough road game for Auburn. Auburn led Tennessee 23-6 in the 4Q and Tennessee scored a TD with no time left to make the game seem closer than it was (26-22). Arkansas crushed Texas A&M 47-19 last week winning. Auburn OC Malzahn was the OC at Arkansas in 2006 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after 2007. Arkansas upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa team last year 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both teams have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 37 Auburn 34
#18 BYU at UNLV
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| BYU | 176 | 300 | 40 | 2.5 | – |
| UNLV | 104 | 240 | 21 | 2.3 | – |
My Forecast:
Last year’s game was tied four times before UNLV allowed a 74/11pl drive with 1:46 left in the 42-35 loss on the road. UNLV HC Sanford’s seat is getting warmer after two straight disappointing losses. Last week the Rebels were actually tied with Nevada late in the 3Q before giving up 35 straight points in a 63-28 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has rebounded after the Florida St game with two straight home wins. BYU does travel well to Vegas and has played 6 games in this stadium the last 4 years including bowls. The Rebs will be fired-up to take on the ranked Cougs in a game that could be similar to last year’s shootout.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Byu 40 UNLV 26
#19 Oklahoma vs Baylor
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| BAYLOR | 89 | 118 | 12 | 3.3 | – |
| OKLAHOMA | 207 | 323 | 41 | 3 | – |
My Forecast:
Oklahoma is 18-0 vs Baylor with the average win by 24 points per game. Last time in Norman Baylor had 450 yards (most vs an Oklahoma squad and about 100 yards over their season average) in a 52-21 Oklahoma win. Oklahoma is off a tough game vs Miami, Fl and has rival Texas on deck. QB Jones is averaging 215 yards per game (60%) with a 10-3 ratio, but Bradford may start here after suffering the shoulder injury in Week 1. Baylor took care of Kent St last week (outgained by 50 yards) with QB Florence (PS#76) making his 1st career start (276 total yards and 2 rush TD) in place of Griffin (ACL) and Szymanski (shoulder injury). If Szymanski starts it will actually will be his 3rd vs Oklahoma (avg 234 ypg, 54% with a 2-4 ratio being sacked 5x’s) or the 1st road start for Florence. Oklahoma has allowed ZERO points and has outgained foes on avg 456-156 in Norman this year and is riding a 26 game home win streak outscoring foes by at least 25 points in 13 of the last 15. Tough spot for the Bears, in an injury letdown game, who have been down this road before after losing a starting QB. An angry Sooner squad off a loss will shows the talent difference between these two teams.
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Baylor 10
#21 Nebraska at #24 Missouri
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| NEBRASKA | 132 | 238 | 28 | 2.1 | •• |
| MISSOURI | 119 | 268 | 23 | 2.5 | – |
This is a big showdown in the Big 12 North. Missouri is better than expected but NU has really impressed and they have not had a bad game all year. They could’ve easily won in Blacksburg with an18-11 FD and 343-277 yard edge. I’ll side with the Huskers on the road.
FORECAST: Nebraska 27 Missouri 20
#22 Georgia Tech at Florida St
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| GA TECH | 263 | 155 | 26 | 2.3 | • |
| FLORIDA ST | 147 | 290 | 28 | 2.7 | – |
My Forecast:
Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to Georgia Tech for the first time since 1975 (12-0 prior). GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). Last year FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the first 15 minutes for -18 yards and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2nd & goal from the 3 but fumbled into the endzone with :45 left losing 31-28. This is Georgia Tech’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Nesbitt is avg 142 yards per game (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yards (3.6). FSU QB Ponder is averaging 285 yards per game (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3. GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons. Florida St has comparable talent to Miami and Miami rolled Georgia Tech on the road 33-17 this year.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 34 Georgia Tech 27
#25 South Carolina vs Kentucky
| Rushing | Passing | Points | TO’s | ST’s | |
| KENTUCKY | 108 | 145 | 16 | 2.7 | •• |
| S CAROLINA | 172 | 200 | 28 | 2.2 | – |
My Forecast:
Last year SC missed 4 FG’s but got an 81 yd blocked FG returned for a TD and an 84 yard kick return to set up another TD to pull out a 24-17 win and held Kentucky to just 218 yards offense. South Carolina has won 9 in a row in this series and Spurrier is 16-0 all-time vs Kentucky. South Carolina is off a 38-14 win over FCS South Carolina St while Kentucky is off 2 losses to #1 Florida and #3 Alabama and could be banged up playing in such physical games. Kentucky allowed 362 rush (7.0) to Florida and 204 (4.9) to Bama but matches up better this week because South Carolina doesn’t have a powerful OL or strong running game. QB Garcia has improved weekly and will have time to throw vs a weak Kentucky pass rush (7 sacks in 4 game) and Spurrier continues his domination of the Wildcats.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 27 Kentucky 13
UPSET SPECIALS:
Illinois over Michigan St
Kent St over Bowling Green
Georgia over Tennessee
