Phil’s Week 6 College Fantasy Picks
It has been a good year for these players of the week with just one 2-3 week in the bunch and the rest all winning weeks including 7-2-1 the last 2 weeks. This week there are a LOT of great choices and it was tough to leave some of these off the table as just honorable mention selections! Don’t just stop at the player of the week but check out all of the honorable mentions as well! Keep in mind these are NOT the obvious picks. I do not take the nation’s leading passer facing a weak secondary and pick him as my QB of the Week. These are mostly SURPRISE projections and I tell you why.
Here are my picks for top QB (with reasoning), RB, WR and Defenses of the Week plus an Upset Special. I also give you reasoning on several Others to Watch. Keep in mind these are NOT the obvious picks. I do not take the nation’s leading passer facing a weak secondary and pick him as my QB of the Week. These are mostly SURPRISE projections and I tell you why.
First a recap of last week’s selections and I grade them win, loss or push.
QUARTERBACKS:
MY PICK: Omar Clayton, UNLV and Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
Clayton (shoulder/knee) did not play in last week’s 63-28 loss to Nevada.
Mallett hit 17 of 27 (63%) for 271 yards with a FOUR TOUCHDOWNS in the 47-19 win over A&M – WIN!
Top Honorable Mention performances:
Aaron Opelt, Toledo – Opelt hit 30 of 38 (79%) for 422 yds with FIVE TD’s in the 7 point win over Ball St.
Joe Cox, Georgia – Cox threw for 229 yards with 2 TD’s in the 20-13 loss to LSU.
Tony Pike, Cincinnati – Pike threw for 270 yards with a 2-1 ratio in a 37-13 win over Miami, OH.
RUNNING BACKS:
MY PICK: CJ Spiller, Clemson
Spiller ran for 72 yards (4.0) in the 24-21 loss to Maryland. He also had a 93 yard dazzling kick return for a TD and 7 yards receiving. PUSH
Top Honorable Mentions:
Darius Marshall, Marshall – Marshall ran for 141 yards (5.0) with 2 TD’s in a 21-17 loss to East Carolina.
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St-Thomas ran for 96 yards (3.8) in a 24-23 win over Iowa St.
LaMichael James, Oregon – James ran for 81 yards (6.2) with 2 TD’s in a 52-6 walloping of Washington St.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
MY PICK: AJ Green, Georgia
Green grabbed 5 receptions (19.8) with 1 TD which was a GREAT leaping catch over the defender in the endzone in a 7 point loss to LSU. WIN!
Top Honorable Mentions:
Stephen Williams, Toledo-Williams had 10 rec (23.1) with 2 TD’s in a 37-30 win over Ball St.
Kendall Wright, Baylor- Wright had 9 rec (13.9) but 0 TD in a 31-15 win over Kent St.
DEFENSES:
MY PICK: Ohio State
Ohio St held Indiana to 228 total yards including just 18 yards rushing (0.7) which was their best rush D performance of the season. Indiana came in averaging 398 yards per game and it would have been less than half their average but at the end of the game Ohio St fumbled at their own 40 and Indiana drove 40 yds for a garbage TD on the final play of the game vs the Buckeye backups. WIN!
Top Honorable Mentions:
San Diego St- The Aztecs held New Mexico St to 234 total yards including 88 yards rush (1.9) in their best defensive showing of the season so far. Be honest did you think San Diego St would hold ANY team this year to 234 TOTAL yards in a game?
UPSET OF THE WEEK
MARSHALL OVER EAST CAROLINA – Despite a 306-286 yardage edge and an 18-17 FD edge, the Herd could not pull their 3rd upset in a row. Loss
A solid 3-1-1 record for last week and my surprise picks are 7-2-1 over the last two weeks!
Here are my picks for week 6:
QUARTERBACKS
MY PICK: Bo Levi Mitchell
Mitchell threw for 240 yds vs a tough TCU defense last week on the road! Mitchell is averaging 305 pass ypg (58%) with an 8-10 ratio. This week he goes against East Carolina which has faced just ONE QB that is in the top 60 in pass efficiency (WV’s Brown #20). One of the QB’s EC has faced was starting his first career game (Appalachian St’s Presley) while UCF’s QB Hodges was making his first career road start (2nd start overall). East Carolina is allowing just 321 ypg TOTAL offense and 196 ypg passing in two CUSA games so far this year. My computer predicts that Mitchell will throw for 343 yds vs the Pirates.
Honorable Mentions:
Aaron Opelt, Toledo - Opelt is #4 in the NCAA in total offense leading the NCAA’s #9 offense and the surprise is that no one outside of the MAC has heard of him. He has 2 big time targets in WR Williams (34, 16.5) and frosh Page (37, 15.8) who both rank in the NCAA’s top 10 in receiving yards per game. The offense must be confident after last week’s win over Ball St in which Opelt hit Williams with a 51 yd TD bomb with :27 left to beat the Cardinals 37-31. The Rockets return to the Glass Bowl for the first time since Sept 11th when they had 624 yds and 54 pts vs Colorado and now take on a Western Michigan defense which is allowing 390 ypg.
Colt McCoy, Texas – After a “quiet” start to the season (286 ypg, 71%, 9-5 ratio), McCoy can make some serious noise in the Heisman race the next 4 weeks by establishing himself solidly as the Big 12’s best QB. First up is a Colorado defense which has been shredded on their 2 previous road contests for 515 ypg and 44.5 ppg. In those contests (Toledo and West Virginia) the opposing QB averaged 234 ypg (64%) with a 6-0 ratio. What better way to tune up for next week’s big showdown with Oklahoma?
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas – Mallett had a nice comeback last week throwing for 271 yds with a 4-1 ratio vs Texas A&M one week after a hideous 12 of 35 for 160 yd performance vs Alabama. Mallett is averaging 287 pass ypg (55%) with an 11-2 ratio on the year. This week Arkansas takes on rival Auburn that hasn’t faced a strong passing QB yet. Auburn is only allowing 191 pass ypg (54%) with a 6-8 ratio and is ranked #24 in the NCAA in pass efficiency defense which makes this an upset pick. My computer predicts that Mallett will throw for 320 yds vs Auburn this week and this should be a shootout.
Steven Sheffield, Texas Tech – No one will be picking Sheffield as their QB to watch this week, but I think he will have a big game. After starting QB Potts was injured last week, Sheffield came in and hit 20 of 29 (69%) for 290 yds with a 4-1 ratio vs New Mexico despite the fact that it was the first time he had thrown a pass in a collegiate game. This is the first time in the Mike Leach era at Texas Tech that a backup QB has started! Texas Tech faces Kansas St this week and the Wildcats are only allowing 152 pass ypg (49%) with a 6-5 ratio which ranks #22 in the NCAA pass efficiency defense rankings, but K-St hasn’t faced a passing offense at all this year and certainly not one of Texas Tech’s caliber.
Christian Ponder, Florida St – Ponder has had a solid season averaging 271 ypg (66%) with a 4-1 ratio despite the team’s other troubles. FSU comes into this week’s Georgia Tech game off a loss to BC (2nd ACC loss and 3rd loss overall) with fans screaming for Bowden to step down. Georgia Tech comes into Tallahassee with a 4-1 record and is allowing 228 pass ypg (59%) with a 10-6 ratio which ranks #88 in the NCAA’s pass defense rankings. GT allowed 261 yds and 3 TD to Clemson’s Parker and 270 yds and 3 TD to Miami FL’s Harris and even 278 yds and a TD to Miss St’s QB Lee last week. My computer predicts that Ponder will throw for 290 yds this week. FSU is playing at home with their backs-against-the wall and that is when they excel and Ponder will lead the way.
RUNNING BACKS: (2 Picks This Week)
MY PICKS: Ryan Mathews, Fresno St/Anthony Dixon, Miss St
Ryan Mathews, Fresno St
This one is pretty academic. Matthews is the nation’s 2nd leading rusher averaging 148 ypg (6.8) and takes on a Warrior defense which was just pounded for 352 yds (6.2!) on the ground vs Louisiana Tech last week vs the first true power football team they’ve faced this year. Fresno HC Hill has said he wants to make Matthews his workhorse TB so expect him to saddle up once again on the islands. 200 plus yards from Matthews is a strong possibility.
Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St
Dixon is coming off a 106 yd rush performance vs Georgia Tech last week, but lost 2 fumbles in the span of 6 carries. The first fumble was returned 40 yds for a TD by GT and the 2nd fumble was at the GT 3 yd line meaning a 14 point difference in the gm (11 pt loss). Dixon had 329 consecutive touches including 301 consecutive carries without losing a fumble prior to last week, so that was an aberration. Dixon needs only 181 yds to become MSU’s all-time leading rusher and my computer predicts that MSU will rush for 269 this week vs Houston with the bulk of the carries going to Dixon. Houston is allowing 205 rush ypg (5.3).
Honorable Mentions:
Robert Turbin, Utah St - Here’s a guy with very little press but Turbin is averaging 105 rush ypg (7.0) and has three 100+ yd rush games this year including 148 yds vs Utah and 121 yds vs Texas A&M. He was held to 47 rush yds last week by BYU, but this week takes a big step down in level of competition facing New Mexico St at home. NMSt has allowed 146 rush ypg (4.8) and my computer predicts that Utah St will rush for 228 yds this week.
Toby Gerhart, Stanford – Gerhart is productive week-in and week-out and is averaging 130 rush ypg (5.4) which is #4 in the NCAA. Oregon St is only allowing 87 rush ypg (3.2) but my computer predicts that the Cardinal will double that with 175 rush yds.
Darius Marshall, Marshall – I want to mention this guy every week until he has a bad week because he is someone who doesn’t get a lot of press but is currently leading the NCAA in rushing with 160 ypg (7.0). He has four 100+ yd rushing games in a row (always on this list) and faces Tulane this week. My computer predicts The Herd will rush for 234 yds this week and Darius Marshall has 74% of the team’s carries despite only playing in 4 of the team’s 5 games.
WIDE RECEIVERS
MY PICK: Moe Brown, South Carolina
Brown fumbled on the 2nd play last week and later dropped a pass that would have kept a drive alive in the 1H vs South Carolina St but had 4 receptions in the 3Q including a 40 yd TD rec and a 9 yd TD rec and finished with 6 rec for 100 yds with 2 TD last week. Brown has just 18 rec for 283 yds (15.7) with 2 TD on the year. This week they take on Kentucky which boasts one of the best CB’s in the country, Trevard Lindley. However, Lindley left last week’s game with an ankle injury and UK HC Brooks said he won’t play vs South Carolina and another top CB Paul Warford was out with a bruised thigh last week and is questionable to play this week. Kentucky has a solid pass D allowing just 169 yards per game and 49% completions. With UK future NFL CB Lindley, Brown should keep his momentum going this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Dezmon Briscoe/Kerry Meier, Kansas-The Hawks are fresh off a bye and take on a tired Cyclones team which is on their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and hasn’t won a Big 12 road game since 2005 (13 straight). Briscoe (18, 18.4) leads the league in receiving yds per game while Meier (27, 12.4) is #4 in receptions per game. ISU has yet to face a true passing offense but is #11 in the league in pass efficiency defense allowing 201 ypg (57%) with a 10-6 ratio.
T.Y. Hilton, FIU – Hilton is one of the top all-purpose players in the nation with 4.2 speed, but he doesn’t get a lot of press since he plays in the Sun Belt conference. He is #6 in the NCAA in receptions per game (8.5) with 34 rec (10.7) with 4 TD plus leads the team in PR’s (12.0) and KR’s (34.0) with a TD. Hilton averages 182.3 all-purpose yards per game which is #6 in the NCAA. Hilton had 11 rec for 117 yds with a TD in FIU’s only Sun Belt game this year (last week’s 48-35 loss to ULM). This week FIU faces new Sun Belt member Western Kentucky in a must-win situation. Both teams are 0-4, but FIU has had some close losses while WKU has been mostly blown out. WKU is #46 in the NCAA in pass defense only allowing 199.8 pass ypg, but they have allowed 75% completions with a 10-4 ratio taking on a very weak slate of opposing QB’s including FCS member Central Arkansas and Navy’s triple option offense. Hilton should be all over the field in this one!
Chris McGaha, Arizona St – McGaha set career highs with 15 receptions for 165 yds in ASU’s loss to Oregon St last week. McGaha leads the team with 25 rec (10.5). ASU takes on Washington St this week and they rank #108 in our pass defense rankings allowing 310 pass ypg (67%).
Max Komar, Idaho – Komar is the Vandals’ top receiving threat with 25 rec for 408 yds (16.3) and averages 82 rec ypg. Komar had 12 rec for 152 yds and a TD vs Colorado St last week. Idaho is surprisingly 4-1 with 2 wins over Mountain West teams and takes on San Jose St this week. SJSt ranks #105 in my pass defense rankings allowing 208 pass ypg (60%) with a 4-2 ratio.
DEFENSES
MY PICK: TCU vs Air Force
The Horned Frogs are #1 in the NCAA in rushing defense allowing just 47 ypg (1.76 ypc) and know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yds below their season average the last 3 years as their 4-2-5 defense matches up well with option attacks. Last year I used TCU as my defense of the week and they held Air Force to 161 yds with 111 coming on 2 carries and TCU won 44-10. The Falcons are also off an emotionally draining OT loss on the road to their rival Navy and haven’t scored an offensive TD since the 3Q of its Sept 19th game vs New Mexico (141:15 of football). In fact, the Air Force offense has been grounded the last 2 weeks with just 294 total yds vs San Diego St and 240 yds vs Navy. My computer predicts that Air Force will have 279 total yds this week, but that doesn’t take into account TCU’s solid matchup edge.
Honorable Mentions:
Oklahoma vs Baylor – The disappointed Sooners are off their 2nd one point loss of the season and now face the Bears who were forced to go with their 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB in last week’s win over Kent St. After losing their first game of the season in Texas Stadium, the Sooners bounced back to post back-to-back shut outs in Norman where they are allowing 157 ypg this year. OU will have to refocus their goals on another Big 12 title and the defense will lead the way. My computer calls for 207 yards for Baylor this week.
Virginia vs Indiana – UVA is just 1-3 and though they are off a big upset of North Carolina, Head Coach Al Groh is still on the hot seat. Last year UVA started out 1-3 and then went undefeated in October to save Groh’s job. This week they take on a 3-2 Indiana team that is averaging 364 ypg and 25.4 ppg. Despite their 1-3 record UVA has held opponents to an average of 302 ypg and held North Carolina to just 174 total yds last week on the road! Picking a 1-3 team’s defense against a 3-2 team that is avg 364 ypg is a surprise pick!
Ohio St vs Wisconsin-The Bucks have allowed 32 pts in their last 4 games with the first team defense basically allowing just 2 legitimate TD drives in that span (USC’s first TD came on a 2 yd ‘drive’ after an interception return while Indy scored a TD on the last play of the game vs OSU’s backups). Wisconsin is the only BCS team in the country that is undefeated yet remains unranked but the Bucks will be ready and welcome back All-Big Ten SS Coleman. UW’s Clay is the conference’s top rusher but OSU is #10 NCAA allowing just 83 ypg (2.7) and the strong Buckeyes’ front four should put pressure on inexperienced QB Tolzien who has yet to face a defense of this caliber.
UCLA vs Oregon – UCLA is #20 in the NCAA in total defense allowing 281 ypg but this week takes on Oregon which racked up 514 yds vs Washington St last week. The Ducks are off games in which they have rolled up 524 and 514 yards offense in back to back weeks! My computer predicts that UCLA will hold the Ducks to just 298 total yds this week and Oregon has yet to prove it can move the ball on the road.
Virginia Tech vs Boston College-BC has had 398 and 399 total yds in the last 2 games at home but now must travel to Virginia Tech. BC’s only road game this year was a 25-7 loss at Clemson in which the Eagles were held to just 54 total yds! VT is allowing 340 total ypg but if you take out the Alabama game, the Hokies have allowed just 300 ypg and allowed just 209 total yds in their only ACC home game vs Miami.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
MY PICK: UCLA over Oregon
I used Marshall in each of the last 3 weeks and for most of last week’s game I thought they were going to pull out their 3rd straight outright upset but they came up short. This week we have an unranked UCLA at home off a 24-16 loss at Stanford. We also have an Oregon team that is now #13 in the AP poll and has just rolled their last two opponents by a combined 94-9 margin including a Cal team that was in the Top 10. Oregon finished #10 in the country last year and UCLA was 4-8. Despite those facts, I believe UCLA is the stronger team and they play their best ball at home as they are 40-18 at home this decade and just 21-29 on the road. They did beat SEC member Tennessee in Knoxville this year. Oregon has one of the best homefield edges in football at Autzen stadium and the crowd helped propel them to the “perfect storm” game vs Cal where they dominated a superior opponent. They now travel for the first time in over a month and in their only road game this year they did not get a FD until 7:20 was left in the 3Q vs Boise St. QB Masoli is also not 100% for the Ducks and UCLA pulls the upset.
