Some News & Notes for Week 5:
I must admit I am pretty pleased with the forecasts from my NFL magazine this year. I will begin charting the accuracy of each of the magazines in the NFL with the same formula that Stassen.com uses for the colleges but here is a quick recap after one fourth of the season.
AFC East – I had New England winning the division and last year’s 11-5 division champs the Dolphins missing the playoffs, GOOD. I had the Jets at 6-10 but the Jets were the consensus pick for the basement in the East so I have some company on that one.
AFC Central - I had Pittsburgh at 12-4 and Baltimore at 10-6. This one is too close to call but I still feel in the end the Steelers will win that division.
AFC South – I had the Colts winning the South and Tennessee which had the best record in the NFL last year finishing 3rd with an 8-8 record. Looks good so far.
AFC West – Every magazine had San Diego winning the West and I still feel they will do just that. I do not believe any magazine had Denver making the playoffs which looks like a strong possibility.
NFC East – I had Philly and the Giants tied for first in the East and they look to be among the top 5 teams in the NFL. While I had the Cowboys in 3rd, I did have them making the playoffs.
NFC North - Chicago was the consensus pick to win the North but I had the Vikings #1 in the North and going to the Super Bowl with the addition of Favre. I had Green Bay and Chicago tied for 2nd and if I could do it all over again after 4 weeks I would make the exact same picks.
NFC South – I am VERY happy with the 4 week results here. The combined magzines had Atlanta winning the South with Carolina #2 and New Orleans way back in 3rd place. I had the Saints winning the South and at this point that looks pretty good.
NFC West – I had the Cardinals in first followed by Seattle and San Fran. The season is way too young to call this race but up to this point San Fran has looked like the top team in the West.
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WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| WASH |
110 |
183 |
14 |
2 |
#9 |
| CAROLINA |
138 |
193 |
16 |
2 |
#32 |
| The Redskins have yet to score 30 points in 20 games under Jim Zorn (not topped 20 in 11 of last 12) & the front office brought in Sherm Lewis to be a consultant. Lewis is a West Coast guru but has been out of football for over 4 years & will be unfamiliar with the current state of the NFL. CAR is in a good spot here as they only have 3 players on the injury report, Fox is a very good coach & used the bye to self-scout & I firmly believe that they will get their ground game back on track. I think Delhomme will be given a lot of low risk plays this week to rebuild his confidence & the CAR defense will rebound with the return of SS Chris Harris who is their defensive QB. Carolina has taken on the 9th toughest schedule and Washington the NFL’s weakest at #32! |
PHIL’S FORECAST : CAR 23 WAS 10
|
ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| ATLANTA |
89 |
208 |
18 |
1 |
#8 |
| SAN FRAN |
135 |
250 |
29 |
3 |
#15 |
| I can’t remember the last time an NFC West team was ranked in the top 10 in overall defense but SF is 6th right now (ATL’s 30th). The 49ers are only allowing 74 ypg rushing (3.1) & ATL RB Turner who dominated last year only has 75 ypg (3.5) so far. SF will once again be without RB Gore but Shaun Hill is 7-0 as a starter for the 49ers at home. There is an adage that offensive oriented teams need a quarter & a half to get back up to speed after a bye & the Falcons could be down by 10 with the 49ers playing ball control & letting the defense handle the workload here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : SF 23 ATL 10
|
MINNESOTA AT ST LOUIS
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| MINN |
130 |
180 |
31 |
1 |
#3 |
| ST LOUIS |
105 |
180 |
6 |
2 |
#20 |
| This is a massive letdown game for the Vikings who are off a last second win vs SF & the big “validation game” on MNF vs GB. Favre was exhausted at the end of the MNF game vs GB & I expect MIN to hold him to under 25 pass attempts here & let Peterson carry the load. MIN is 6-3 after Peterson is held to under 100 yards rushing as a starter & STL is allowing 135 ypg rushing (4.1). The Rams have 7 of 8 units ranked 23rd or lower in my position talent rankings while MIN has 6 units ranked 12th or higher. I think MIN will go up big & then coast in the 2nd half here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : MIN 27 STL 10
|
TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| TAMPA BAY |
80 |
11 |
10 |
2 |
#5 |
| PHILADELPHIA |
153 |
263 |
32 |
2 |
#13 |
| The Eagles are 10-0 after a bye under Andy Reid & get all but 1 player (OG Herremans) back from injury here. McNabb could be rusty here as he’s essentially starting the season all over after missing 3 weeks of football. However, the Eagles get a TB team equivalent in talent to KC who PHI shredded 34-14 with a 420-196 yd edge. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for TB, with Josh Johnson (106 yds, 59%, 1-1 last week) in his 2nd start vs a rested PHI defense. TB has been outscored 56-7 combined in the 1st & 3rd quarters & the 3 teams who fired their OC’s in the preseason (TB, BUF, KC) are a combined 1-11 so far. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : PHI 27 TB 3
|
CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| CLEVELAND |
111 |
145 |
16 |
2 |
#7 |
| BUFFALO |
149 |
218 |
24 |
2 |
#18 |
| This is the 3rd year in a row these teams have met & CLE is 2-0 vs the Bills. The coaches are also very familiar with each other with Mangini having coached the Jets. The Bills are 3-12 since 10/26/08 under Jauron & another loss to a winless team could be the nail in the coffin. The Bills injuries are crippling as they have vertical threat WR’s with an OL that struggles vs 3-4 teams with a poor situation at OT. The Bills are beat up in the secondary & I was surprised they gave up 250 yds (5.6) vs MIA last week. I think this is the best chance the Browns have for a win until Thanksgiving week & Derek Anderson should play well here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : CLE 24 BUF 23
|
PITTSBURGH AT DETROIT
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| PITTSBURGH |
129 |
225 |
28 |
1 |
#11 |
| DETROIT |
74 |
220 |
19 |
1 |
#30 |
| This game is sold out only because a mass of Steelers fans are making the trip here. PIT is off a dominating win vs SD & only has CLE on deck. DET is expected to start Culpepper here as Stafford hasn’t practiced this week due to a dislocated knee. Roethlisberger could have a career day here vs a Lions defense that is allowing 240 ypg (73%) with a 12-2 ratio which is actually worse than last year’s pass defense. PIT has 4 games of tape on Schwartz’s system with the Lions & should dominate for their traveling “home crowd”. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : PIT 31 DET 20
|
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| INDIANAPOLIS |
69 |
333 |
31 |
1 |
#22 |
| TENNESSEE |
130 |
225 |
17 |
2 |
#31 |
| The Colts transition to Jim Caldwell has been seamless but I think the real credit has to go to Tom Moore & Howard Mudd who returned as the OC & OL coach for Manning. Peyton has 4 straight 300 yd games to open the season & the Colts are 13-0 since last Nov. The Titans know how to play the Colts & are not intimidated by Manning or their high powered offense. However, IND gets a TEN defense sorely missing Jim Schwartz & will be without 2 of their top 3 CB’s with the other playing with bruised ribs. The Titans could be 0-6 going into their bye week.. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : IND 25 TEN 21
|
HOUSTON AT ARIZONA
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| HOUSTON |
72 |
255 |
24 |
2 |
#6 |
| ARIZONA |
90 |
320 |
31 |
1 |
#15 |
| I think this will be a rather high scoring game here as both teams have defensive issues. ARZ is giving up 280 ypg passing (60%) with a 7-2 ratio while HOU is allowing 165 ypg (5.5) & that is after they played OAK last week. Whisenhunt has repeatedly stated the need to refocus a rush attack that is only earning 60 ypg (3.2) so far TY in order to reduce the hits that Warner has been absorbing. HOU has been hit by the flu bug this week & DE Mario Williams (bruised shoulder) hasn’t practiced. Schaub is only 3-10 as a starter on the road & with ARZ off a blowout loss to IND at home prior to the bye I think they get back on track here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : ARZ 34 HOU 23
|
NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| NEW ENGLAND |
120 |
230 |
22 |
1 |
#29 |
| DENVER |
113 |
218 |
18 |
1 |
#26 |
| On the surface this looks a matchup between powerhouse teams with NE having the #8 & #7 units vs the Jets, Falcons & Ravens. DEN is 4-0 with the #2 & #7 units but that has been built on lesser quality foes such as OAK & CLE followed by DAL with the #26 defense. Belichick is 5-2 vs former coordinators & has never lost the initial matchup vs them. Both teams will be without their starting RB’s (NE’s Taylor & DEN’s Buckhalter) which makes the quality of the QB’s standout more. Orton is doing a nice job for DEN here (5-0 ratio, 7.7 ypa) but NE is rapidly rounding into elite form & I’ll side with the more experienced head coach here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NE 20 DEN 10
|
DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| DALLAS |
142 |
258 |
26 |
1 |
#10 |
| KANSAS CITY |
92 |
220 |
18 |
4 |
#4 |
| DAL has a huge edge statistically on offense despite how last week’s game ended with the #4 offense vs the Chiefs #31 unit. You are what your record says they are & the Cowboys are 12-12 the last 24 now while the Chiefs have lost 27 of their last 29 games. DAL is expected to be without SS Sensabaugh, RB Jones & Roy Williams is very doubtful with 3 bruised ribs. KC has lost yardage on 1 of every 5 offensive plays thru the 1st 4 games, outscored 47-13 in the 1st & 3rd quarters & held to under 200 yds in 3 of 4 games. DAL has a bye on deck & should easily handle the Chiefs but I am a little wary of their injury situation here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : DAL 28 KC 7
|
OAKLAND AT NY GIANTS
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| OAKLAND |
51 |
43 |
5 |
3 |
#24 |
| NY GIANTS |
182 |
223 |
25 |
2 |
#28 |
| This is a huge letdown spot for the Giants here as they became the 8th team to sweep a 3 game road trip since 1990 & they have another road game vs NO on deck. OAK is coming cross country after a road blowout vs HOU & compounding matters is that this will be a 10 am start for them. Eli Manning (bruised heel) practiced Friday & I expect him to play until the game gets out of hand. In 16 games as HC, Tom Cable’s Raiders have 19 more yards than the 2006 Art Shell Raiders. The Giants have 6 units ranked 10th or higher in my position rankings & OAK has 5 units ranked 29th or lower. The Giants should have an easy time as long as they remain focused. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NYG 33 OAK 10
|
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| CINCINNATI |
50 |
203 |
18 |
2 |
#25 |
| BALTIMORE |
138 |
258 |
28 |
1 |
#17 |
| The Ravens are in a foul mood here after some horrible officiating & a blatant dropped pass by WR Clayton cost them last week’s game vs NE. CIN is 3-1 but all 4 games have been decided in the final 2 min of the game. Minus his 4 go ahead drives Palmer only has 624 yds (56%) with a 4-5 ratio. The Ravens are playing explosive & violent football & I am impressed by their #3 offense at this point. Facing the an angry Ravens team after struggling to put away the Browns doesn’t make me confident. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : BAL 28 CIN 20
|
JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| JACKSONVILLE |
126 |
198 |
23 |
1 |
#23 |
| SEATTLE |
104 |
283 |
24 |
2 |
#19 |
| The Jaguars are off a lucky win vs HOU & a dominating win vs TEN with Garrard passing for 537 yds (67%) with a 3-0 ratio. However, they have to make the 2nd longest flight possible in the NFL (2440 miles) here. SEA expects to have QB Hasselbeck back here & Jim Mora was thrilled to only have 5 starters expected to miss here. While SEA has had 10 starters miss 23 games so far this year the good news is that only LT Jones is in danger of landing on IR (6 players IR this time last year). I think the Seahawks & Qwest Field will be recharged with their QB at the helm vs a JAX team in their 1st true West Coast trip since Wk 1 2005. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : SEA 23 JAX 17
|
A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase. You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com.
JOSH’S WK 6 FCS FORECAST
