Phil’s Week 7 College Fantasy Picks
Last week was a good but not great week. I will grade it 3-2-1 and that means the last 3 weeks the record is 10-4-2 as I went 3-1-1 in week 5 and 4-1 in week 4! I’m looking to bounce back for another big week and I found so many good surprise candidates this week that I have 2 picks in each category.
Here are my picks for top QB (with reasoning), RB, WR and Defenses of the Week plus an Upset Special. I also give you reasoning on several Others to Watch. Keep in mind these are NOT the obvious picks. I do not take the nation’s leading passer facing a weak secondary and pick him as my QB of the Week. These are mostly SURPRISE projections and I tell you why.
First a recap of last week’s selections and I grade them win, loss or push.
QUARTERBACKS:
MY PICK: Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU - Mitchell threw for 266 yards (59%) with 2 TD’s in a 28-21 win over East Carolina. Not overwhelming numbers and there were some close calls this week. Since he guided an upset of the defending league champ and had good numbers, I will call it a WIN.
Top Honorable Mention performances:
Steven Sheffield, Texas Tech – Sheffield threw for 490 yards (81%) with SEVEN TD’s in his first career start last week and Texas Tech pummeled Kansas St 66-14.
Christian Ponder, Florida St – Ponder threw for 359 yards (72%) with 5 TD’s in a 5 point loss to Georgia Tech.
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas - Mallett threw for 274 yards (65%) with 2 TD’s and added another TD rushing in last week’s 44-23 win over Auburn which ousted Auburn from the ranks of the undefeated teams.
RUNNING BACKS:
MY PICKS (Two Choices): Ryan Mathews, Fresno St & Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St
Ryan Mathews, Fresno St – Mathews ran for 148 yards (6.2) with 1 TD in last week’s 42-17 win over Hawaii. WIN
Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St – Dixon ran for 134 yards (6.4) with 2 TD’s in a 31-24 loss to Houston. WIN
Top Honorable Mentions:
Robert Turbin, Utah St – Turbin ran for 184 yards (7.7) in a 3 point loss to New Mexico St.
Toby Gerhart, Stanford – Gerhart “only” rushed for 96 yards (4.8) but had 2 TD’s on the ground in a 10 point loss to Oregon St.
Darius Marshall, Marshall-Marshall ran for 98 yards (4.9) with 2 TD’s in a 31-10 win over Tulane.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
MY PICK: Moe Brown, South Carolina -Brown only had 3 rec’s for 33 yards with no TD’s in a 2 point win over Kentucky, but opened the door for true freshman Alshon Jeffery who caught 7 rec of 138 yds and 3 TD’s, still I will count it as a Loss.
Top Honorable Mentions:
Dezmon Briscoe/Kerry Meier, Kansas – Briscoe and Meier combined for 328 yards (11.7) with 4 TD’s in a 41-36 win over Iowa St.
DEFENSES:
MY PICK: TCU vs Air Force – The Horned Frogs held an Air Force offense that was averaging 373 total yards per game to just 287 in a 3 point win. While holding a team almost 100 yards below their season average is a solid performance, it is not the type of dominating performance I expected so PUSH.
Top Honorable Mentions:
Virginia Tech vs Boston College-VT held Boston College to 163 total yards including 45 yards rushing (1.6 yards per carry) in a 48-14 win. In their 2 losses this year, BC has only averaged 109 total yards per game!
Virginia vs Indiana – UVA held Indiana to 272 yards including 82 yards rushing in a 40 point win. Indiana came in averaging 25.4 points per game and 364 yards per game prior to last week’s game!
Oklahoma vs Baylor – The Sooners held Baylor to just 268 total yards including SIX yards rushing in a 33-7 win.
UCLA vs Oregon – UCLA allowed 303 total yards (just 82 yards passing) in a 14 point loss to Oregon
UPSET OF THE WEEK
UCLA vs Oregon – The Ducks trailed 3-0 at the half but got a KR TD to open the 3Q, an interception return TD on the next play and a few plays later a short drive for a TD after a fumble. 22 yards of offense and 21 points in the first 4 minutes of the 2nd half=Loss.
On to my picks for Week 7 and I’m expecting a big comeback with a strong list of candidates.
Here are my picks for week 7:
QUARTERBACKS (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: Jevan Snead, Ole Miss/Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss
Snead came into the ‘09 season with great expectations as Ole Miss was ranked #8 in the preseason AP poll and Snead was mentioned as one of the top QB’s for the 2010 draft. Unfortunately a season that started out slowly, now has gone totally off course and Snead has been one of the most maligned QB’s in the country the last couple of weeks. In the last 3 games the team is 1-2 and Snead has averaged just 161 pass yards per game (42%) with a 4-7 ratio with those 7 interceptions coming the in the last 2 games. This week Snead takes a huge step down in level of competition facing UAB’s #96 pass defense which is allowing 309 yards per game (66%) with an 11-5 ratio. This is just what the doctor ordered to rebuild Snead’s confidence before heading back to the SEC wars. Last year Snead played much better in the 2nd half of the year after the team upset #4 Florida and he averaged 280 pass yards per game in the final 3 games. Picking a QB with a 3-7 ratio the last 2 weeks is certainly a surprise pick.
Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
LeFevour is only averaging 219 pass yards per game, so he is a perfect candidate as a surprise pick for my list. Digging deeper I see that LeFevour is completing 72% of his passes with a 12-4 ratio and is also the team’s top rusher with 319 yds (4.2) and 8 TD’s. Last year when Central Michigan met their rival Western Michigan, LeFevour was out and backup QB Brunner faced a veteran WM defense and threw for 346 yds (71%) in their 38-28 win and Brunner was named MAC Offensive Player of the Week. This year WM returned just 3 defensive starters and must take on the MAC’s Tim Tebow. I used LeFevour as my QB of the week 3 weeks ago and he accounted for 6 TD’s vs Akron, and I expect another big game from him this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Diondre Borel, Utah St - This is certainly an unfamiliar name for most folks and a surprise pick since the Aggies are facing one of the better WAC teams, Nevada, this week. Borel has averaged 228 pass yards per game (57%) with a 6-1 ratio and has 175 rush yds (2.4) with 4 TD’s. My computer predicts that Borel will throw for 273 yds this week and Nevada has allowed 268 pass yards per game (59%) with an 11-1 ratio which ranks them #89 in my pass defense rankings.
Daryll Clark, Penn St – The Lions return to Big Ten play and face an inconsistent Minnesota defense which has allowed 435 yards per game and 33 points per game in the 2 opponents they have played in Penn St’s class this year (Cal and Wisconsin). The Lions have run for 623 yds in the last 2 games behind a shuffled OL but may want to work on the pass game with a trip to Ann Arbor on deck. Clark leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency and gets back into the groove vs the Gophers.
Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU – Mitchell is averaging 297 yards per game (58%) on the season in Head Coach June Jones’ Run-and-Shoot offense and has limited his mistakes the last 2 weeks (3-1 ratio) vs solid D’s (TCU, East Carolina). He is facing a Navy defense that has yet to play a passing team and is on the 2nd game of back-to-back road games in Texas. Navy is #112 in our pass D efficiency rankings, allowing almost 200 yards per game (64%) to a weak slate of opposing QB’s. We expect Mitchell’s maturation to continue vs the Midshipmen.
Aaron Opelt, Toledo – Opelt is averaging 297 pass yards per game (60%) with a 14-5 ratio despite being forced out of last week’s game in the 2Q with a shoulder injury to his throwing shoulder. He is listed as probable for this week’s game. Last year UT was off their upset win over Michigan when they faced Northern Illinois, but 2 years ago in the Glass Bowl Opelt hit 22 of 28 for 387 yds with 4 TD’s in a 70-21 win over the Huskies. Toledo set a MAC record with 812 yds of offense in the game. Northern Illinois is only allowing 212 pass yards per game but allows 63% completions, so they rank #73 in my pass defense rankings. My computer predicts Opelt will throw for 303 yds as long as he is healthy.
Nick Foles, Arizona – Foles is only averaging 184 pass yards per game but is completing 72% of his passes with a 6-2 ratio. He threw for 384 yds last week vs Washington. My computer predicts Foles will throw for 255 yds vs Stanford this week and The Cardinal is allowing 224 pass yards per game (63%) with a 5-3 ratio.
RUNNING BACKS: (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: MiQuale Lewis, Ball St/Andre Anderson, Tulane
MiQuale Lewis, Ball St
Last year Lewis led the MAC with 1,736 rush yds (5.4) and was 1st Team All-MAC. This year with an inexperienced OL and QB he has struggled with just 43.8 rush yards per game and a poor 3.3 yards per carry. Finally they take on a defensive front 7 as inexperienced as the Ball St OL. BG has allowed over 200 yds rushing per game in each of the last 4 weeks including yards per carry’s of 6.6, 7.6, 6.2, and 6.5! Ball St is at home and desperate for a win and it is time to saddle up a player that was a consensus 1st Team All-MAC player heading into the year. Lewis should have his best game of the year!
Andre Anderson, Tulane
Anderson is averaging just 89.2 rush yards per game with 5 TD’s in 5 games, but has returned to form the last 3 weeks averaging 120 rush yards per game. He accounts for 61% of his team’s rush yards and this week he faces a weak rush defense in Houston. My computer predicts Tulane to have 206 rush yards vs the Cougars, who have allowed 3 straight 100-yd rushers. Houston has allowed 635 (6.9!) rush yards (318 rush yards per game) in the last 2 games and is on the road for a 3rd straight week. Tulane will want to pound the ball to keep the Houston offense off the field. Anderson didn’t play vs Houston last year and Tulane was crushed 42-14. Picking any player from a 2-3 Tulane team facing #23 ranked Houston is a surprise!
Honorable Mentions:
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St - K-St got shredded by Texas Tech on the road last week, but now returns home to face A&M and HC Snyder will want to keep his defense off the field as much as possible by running the ball and using a ball control offense. Thomas (PS#25) is averaging 96.3 rush yards per game (4.6) with three 100+ yard rush games this year. Texas A&M has my #78 ranked defense overall and allows 154 rush yards per game (4.2), and Thomas should have a huge game.
DeMaundray Woolridge and Princeton McCarty, Idaho - The Vandals are a surprise team starting off their season 5-1 which is their best start since 1994. Woolridge leads the team with 449 rush yds (6.0) and McCarty has 331 yds (6.1) and together they average 130 rush yards per game. This week they face Hawaii’s rebuilt defense which has allowed a boatload of rushing yards to the tune of 202 yards per game (4.7) with three 100+ yards rushers allowed in 5 games.
Chris Garrett, Ohio – Here’s a guy that’s not near the top of the MAC rushing leaders and certainly not a name people recognize nationally, but I expect him to have a great week. Garrett has only 341 rush yds (4.9) in 6 games which leads Ohio, but only averages 56.8 rush yards per game (#7 in MAC). Last year vs their rival Miami OH, Garrett rushed for 222 yds (9.7) on the road and set a school single game record for all-purpose yds with 321. Last year Miami’s defense had 8 starters back while this year’s only has 5 and is allowing 165 rush yards per game (4.4).
Daniel Porter, Louisiana Tech – Porter only rushed for 134 yds total in the first 3 games, but in the last 2 games vs WAC opponents, he has rushed for 259 yds (130 yards per game) averaging 7.2 yards per carry. New Mexico St has been gashed on the ground this year and allowed 258 rush yds last week to Utah St. Porter finished the ‘08 season as the #2 RB in the WAC with 1,164 yds (5.2), but currently ranks just #6 in the WAC among RB’s in rush yds. I expect Porter to have a 200+ yard game this week and start climbing in the rush rankings.
WIDE RECEIVERS (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: Scott Long, Louisville/Stanley Morrison, Utah St
Scott Long, Louisville
This is certainly no gimme picking a player from a 2-3 Louisville team facing a 3-2 Connecticut team that has 2 losses by a total of 5 points. Long leads UL with 410 receiving yds and 17.8 yards per carry. Last year vs a tough Connecticut D that only allowed 168 pass yards per game, Long had 146 yds and a TD. Adam Froman is making his third start at QB this week and gained more rapport with Long last week with 146 yds and a 29.2 yards per carry with a TD vs Southern Miss. Connecticut is allowing only 185 pass yards per game this year, but hasn’t faced a tough slate of pass offenses, so they rank just #79 in my pass defense rankings. Everyone will be surprised when Long has a big day, but I am expecting it.
Stanley Morrison, Utah St
Morrison is another guy few have heard of outside of the WAC and he’s the Aggies’ big play receiver. Morrison only has 15 rec but is averaging an outstanding 20.7 per catch and 62.2 rec yards per game. Nevada has allowed three 100+ yard receivers in their 5 games and is allowing 268 pass yards per game which ranks #89 in my pass defense rankings.
Honorable Mentions:
Jeremy Williams, Tulane – Williams accounts for 63% of the Green Wave’s pass offense with 34 rec (17.0) & 3 TD’s. He is a threat to go the distance every time the ball is thrown his way. He is facing a Houston defense that has been susceptible to the big play. Tulane would like to control the clock, but will also take some shots downfield and Williams is by far their top target.
Chris McClover, Middle Tennessee – I know you are saying who is that?? McClover leads Middle Tennessee in receiving yds with 227 on 15 receptions with 15.1 yards per carry. He is 6’4” 208 and faces Mississippi St’s starting CB’s who are both just 5’10”. My computer projects that Middle Tennessee will throw for 300 yds vs Mississippi St this week and last week Miss St allowed Houston to throw for 434 yds with 4 TD’s. It would be a huge surprise if McClover had a big day vs an SEC defense, and I think he will.
Darvin Adams, Auburn – Adams is probably an unfamiliar name to most but he leads Auburn in receiving with 25 receptions for 387 yds (15.5) with 5 TD’s. Though Auburn is a run-first team, they will be able to take advantage of Kentucky’s banged up secondary this week. UK’s top 2 CB’s missed the SC game last week, and top CB Lindley is out again this week while CB Warford is doubtful.
DEFENSES (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: Temple/Alabama
Temple
Temple has a strong front seven and the Owls have allowed just 90.4 rush yards per game (2.9) this year. They only allowed 186 rush yds vs Penn St this year which was 117 yds less than last year. Army may still be celebrating their huge upset of SEC team Vanderbilt, and may not be fully focused for this one. Last year Temple held Army to 210 rush yds (3.6) and 284 total yds in the ‘08 opener and since that time has improved with 9 defensive starters returning in ‘09 and is one of the MAC’s best defenses overall. Andre Neblett is the best defensive lineman you never heard off and look for him to disrupt the Army option.
Alabama
Alabama is #2 in the NCAA in total defense allowing just 221 yards per game, but this week takes on #22 ranked South Carolina which has started out 5-1. SC has made huge strides on offense this year after finishing ‘09 only averaging 94 rush yards per game, they now average 129 rush yards per game. Plus QB Garcia who was easily rattled last year, has developed more patience and is averaging 211 pass yards per game with a 9-3 ratio after finishing ‘08 with a 6-8 ratio. Though SC isn’t an offensive juggernaut, they are ranked #22 with their only loss to a UGA team that they outgained 427-308. This is the toughest defense by far that they have faced this year and they must travel to Tuscaloosa where the crowd won’t be kind to Garcia. South Carolina is #22 and averages 372 yards per game on offense but my computer shows them with just 173 yards which is less than half their season average this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Ohio St vs Purdue-The Bucks have one of the nation’s deepest and most talented DL’s which was on display last week when they decimated a Wisconsin OL which had allowed just 2 sacks in the first 5 games of the season. OSU had 6 sacks, harassed QB Tolzien into throwing 2 pick sixes and held one of the nation’s top RB’s in John Clay to 59 yds (3.0). OSU now takes on a Purdue offense which leads BCS teams in TO’s lost (20). Purdue has scored one garbage time TD vs Ohio St in their last 2 meetings and look for that trend to continue vs a Bucks defense which has allowed 1 meaningful TD drive in their last 4 games. Purdue comes in averaging 402 yards per game and the Buckeyes will hold them to a season low in yards here.
Florida vs Arkansas-I’m sure you are saying, what’s the surprise factor in picking the #1 team with a great defense? In my defense, Arkansas is averaging 452 total yards per game which is #15 in the NCAA. Florida is #1 in the NCAA allowing just 203 total yards per game. With Florida’s offense still running pretty conservatively this week until Tebow gets back to full-strength, look for the defense to lay the hammer down and be the star for the 2nd straight week. The Gators held LSU to just 162 total yds last week in Death Valley and now return to the Swamp. My computer predicts that Arkansas will have just 250 total yds which is almost half of their season average. Michael Smith the Hogs top RB is very questionable for this as well.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
MY PICK: Kansas St over Texas A&M
Many people will be surprised by this pick especially if you just glance at the results of Kansas St’s last game, a 66-14 trouncing at the hands of Texas Tech. However, that was on the road and now K-St is at home and faces a young (16 true freshmen playing) Texas A&M squad. A&M is playing in their first true road game this week, and that is a huge factor for such a young team. I expect K-St to use their ball-control offense and superior defense to slow down the Aggies and control the game. With a tough slate coming up, K-St is in a must-win situation if they want to get back to a bowl.
