Week 6 NFL Selections
Good News! Check out the NFL team pages. Do you see the average grade listed weekly? That will be up here for all 120 college teams on a daily basis so you will not have to wait until Saturday for them!!!
We will have the college converted to that format by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Now here are my selections for Week 6!
NY GIANTS AT NEW ORLEANS
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| NY GIANTS |
115 |
208 |
20 |
2 |
#29 |
| N ORLEANS |
108 |
174 |
27 |
2 |
#28 |
| New Orleans is 0-4 after a bye week including playoffs & in an interesting move Payton gave the team 5 days off to rest them here. New Orleans has been very lucky facing teams with weak or inexperienced QB’s to start the season. This will be the best Offensive line their #6 defense has faced this year. The Giants have some injury problems but I am impressed with how GM Reese put the team together in terms of depth. The Giants are one of the best road teams in the NFL at 19-4 including playoffs on the road & have the veteran leadership to pull out a close one. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NYG 24 NO 23
|
KANSAS CITY AT WASHINGTON
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| KANSAS CITY |
79 |
108 |
13 |
1 |
#7 |
| WASH |
124 |
268 |
22 |
1 |
#15 |
| The Redskins are under a ton of pressure here being just 2-3 with an offense that’s stuck in neutral despite having faced 4 straight winless teams. Things are only going to get worse here as LT Samuels could be forced to retire due to a neck stinger which will force who I think is their best player on offense in TE Chris Cooley to stay in & block. KC took DAL to limit last week & a really bad OL Cassel has a 7-2 ratio here. WAS is paying the price for not investing in the offense & I think the Chiefs make this another close game in what is likely to be bad weather conditions. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : WAS 17 KC 14
|
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| CLEVELAND |
65 |
128 |
9 |
1 |
#6 |
| PITTSBURGH |
155 |
248 |
24 |
2 |
#9 |
| The Steelers are 11-0 vs the Browns & will get SS Polamalu back here. Unfortunately they lost DE Aaron Smith who is one of the best 3-4 DE’s in the NFL. Cleveland has moved the ball well on the ground the last 2 weeks with 171 & 146 yds but Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 26 games. Anderson isn’t as bad as his 2 completetions on 17 attemtps last year as he had 9 drops also. However, the Steelers are livid over the fact they’ve given up more points in the 4Q (55) than in the 1st 3 quarters combined (43). Tomlin has challenged the team to close out games & they deliver here vs a Cleveland team with 15 total points in 3 road games this year. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : PIT 33 CLE 10
|
ST LOUIS AT JACKSONVILLE
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| ST LOUIS |
140 |
205 |
10 |
2 |
#14 |
| JACKSONVILLE |
131 |
228 |
28 |
2 |
#17 |
| St Louis has lost 15 straight games, are the lowest scoring offense in the NFL at 6.8 ppg with just 4 TD’s in 5 games this year & have been outscored by 64-3 combined in the 1Q & 3Q. The Jags were shutout Last week 41-0 as they were caught in a bad travel situation vs a Seattle team supercharged with the return of Hasselbeck. In 5 games Jones-Drew has only avg’d 66 ypg (4.4) but I think he’ll have a great shot here vs a Rams defense giving up 126 ypg (4.0). Bulger (4-26 L30 starts) is expected to return here & it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a higher scoring game as the Jags get the win at home. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : JAX 27 STL 17
|
PHILADELPHIA AT OAKLAND
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| PHILADELPHIA |
133 |
228 |
30 |
2 |
#21 |
| OAKLAND |
71 |
150 |
9 |
3 |
#25 |
| This game features a rested PHI team that is 5-0 on the West Coast in their 1st road game since Week One. OAK is off their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, are 9-31 at home & are the 1st team since 1960 to be held to less than 200 yds in 4 straight games. Russell has avg’d 100 ypg (43%) with an 0-2 ratio the L4W & had 3 fumbles last week. He now faces a PHI team that has blitzed on 71 of 150 pass plays with a backup LG & RT here. I expect PHI to come in, get a big lead & then rest like the Giants did in the 2nd half last week. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : PHI 31 OAK 10
|
BUFFALO AT NY JETS
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| BUFFALO |
82 |
111 |
10 |
2 |
#22 |
| NY JETS |
160 |
103 |
20 |
2 |
#11 |
| The good news for the Bills is that they get MLB Posluzny & SS Whitner back here. The bad news is that they will have 3 rookies starting on the OL, another player who didn’t take a snap in 2008 & catch a Jets defense that its seething after getting embarrassed on MNF. On the surface the Jets only have 4 sacks this year but they blitz heavily & get a lot of pressure as teams use more 3 step drops & max protections now after the NE game. BUF is junking their no-huddle offense & I think they will try to slow the game down with Marshawn Lynch & Fred Jackson. Bad weather is expected here but I like the Jets defense, OL, run game & attitude here & expect them to back up their swagger here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NYJ 27 BUF 10
|
TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| TENNESSEE |
89 |
200 |
14 |
2 |
#32 |
| N ENGLAND |
102 |
283 |
31 |
1 |
#27 |
| NE has the #9 & #11 units (+3 TO’s) vs TEN #17 & #24 units (-5 TO’s). NE is the 2nd team since the 1970 merger to face 4 straight undefeated foes not including Week 1. While weather is expected to be a factor the Titans face the Patriots at a bad time here. TEN could very well be without 4 of 5 starters in the secondary (nickel DB’s get 50-60% snaps in a game) here & Belichick has been railing the offense for being 1 of 4 teams without a pass play of 40 yds TY. I called for the Titans to drop in the win column in my 2009 Pro Magazine but I have to admit they are 0-5 & NE should get right here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NE 28 TEN 10
|
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| DETROIT |
95 |
200 |
21 |
2 |
#30 |
| GREEN BAY |
124 |
263 |
33 |
0 |
#16 |
| The Lions haven’t won in Lambeau since 1991 & face a Packers team that is 6-2 after a bye including playoffs. Detroit sorely needs the bye that’s on deck for them & will be very short handed here. They are likely to be without QB Stafford & start WR Calvin Johnson here. Making things worse is that Green Bay gets LT Clifton back here & the Lions will be without 3 of 4 DL starters here. DET has allowed 245 ypg passing (73%) with a 15-3 ratio. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : GB 34 DET 17
|
HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| HOUSTON |
77 |
253 |
21 |
1 |
#3 |
| CINCINNATI |
136 |
265 |
29 |
2 |
#26 |
| The Texans blasted Cincinnati 35-6 as Houston dominated every phase of the game with a 384-253 yd edge, scored on a 73 yd PR & scored 21 unanswered points in the 2H. Houston dropped to 3-11 on the road failing to punch it in for the 2nd time in 3 games vs ARZ LW. Cincinnati could be emotionally spent here with all 5 games decided in the final minute, 3 straight wins by 3 pts vs division foes & the passing of DC Zimmer’s wife. One of the bigger surprises for 2009 is the fact that after 5 games Cedric Benson leads the NFL with 487 yds (6 more than Adrian Peterson) & he gets to face a Houston team allowing 141 yds rushing (5.2). I look for Cincinnati to get another win in a higher scoring game. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : CIN 31 HOU 24
|
BALTIMORE AT MINNESOTA
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| BALTIMORE |
87 |
220 |
21 |
2 |
#13 |
| MINNESOTA |
92 |
255 |
28 |
1 |
#4 |
| Favre is 5-0 for the 1st time in his career but now takes a big step up after facing St Loius last week. The Ravens have the #5 & #10 units here (+2 TO) vs MIN #18 & #14 units (+8 TO’s). BAL has lost 2 straight winnable games as the defense has made some mental errors & I have noticed 5 different players have been shuffled into Bart Scott’s former spot trying to find a replacement. Baltimore has really been airing it out This year (185 pass att’s) but RB Ray Rice & TE Todd Heap lead the team in rec’s showing the quality of WR’s. I like the matchup of my early Defensive MVP Jared Allen (6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles 1 safety) vs rookie LT Michael Oher with a loud home edge as the Vikings stay undefeated. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : MIN 23 BAL 16
|
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| CAROLINA |
149 |
183 |
22 |
1 |
#31 |
| TAMPA BAY |
122 |
156 |
18 |
2 |
#5 |
| Carolina got their 1st win of the year last week as they rallied from a 17-2 deficit vs Washington. The Panthers -9 TO’s is a huge concern as nothing gives a bad team life like takeaways. Fox noted after Thursday’s practice that both RB’s Stewart & Williams will be 100% for the 1st time this year & the Bucs are allowing 153 ypg (4.7) on the ground. This is actually the 1st home start for Josh Johnson but WR Bryant is very questionable here. I think Carolina has an excellent shot of getting to .500 the next 2 weeks as they are finally healthy & get an overmatched division foe here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : CAR 27 TB 17
|
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| ARIZONA |
43 |
250 |
19 |
0 |
#19 |
| SEATTLE |
130 |
283 |
26 |
1 |
#20 |
| Seattle is simply a different team at home especially with Hasselbeck at QB as he knows the offense inside & out. While they are likely to start their #3 LT here the Cardinals defense isn’t the same as last year’s (#27 now) without Clancy Pendergast who was very adept at shifts & disguises. Seattle is slowly getting healthier on defense as they expect their #1 pass rusher in Patrick Kerney to return to a unit that is 3rd with 14 sacks. ARZ is only avg 57 ypg (3.1) on the ground & pass defense (9-3 ratio 7.8) could struggle vs a surprisingly deep WR unit here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : SEA 28 ARZ 20
|
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| CHICAGO |
99 |
225 |
25 |
2 |
#1 |
| ATLANTA |
113 |
283 |
30 |
1 |
#10 |
| Chicago had a 20-19 lead last year with :11 left on a 17 yd TD pass. CHI squib kicked but ATL took over at their 44 & Ryan threw a 26 yd pass with the WR being pushed out of bounce with :01 left. This set up a game winning 48 yd FG. Ryan is 9-1 as a starter at home with the 1 loss coming against Jay Cutler last year 24-20. The Bears return from their bye week & very pleased with Cutler who minus the GB game has avg’d 208 ypg (71%) with a 7-1 ratio. Atlanta throttled the 49ers 45-10 LY as the 49ers were overaggressive defending the pass & surprisingly undisciplined for a Singletary team. Both teams have rising stars at QB & this looks to be a very entertaining game. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : ATL 24 CHI 21
|
