Phil’s Week 8 Fantasy College Picks
Last week was an excellent week for my players of the week. I will grade it 7-2 and that means the last 4 weeks the record is 17-6-2 which pretty great for making mostly surprise picks!
First a recap of last week’s selections and I grade them win, loss or push.
QUARTERBACKS:
MY PICKS: Jevan Snead, Ole Miss and Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan.
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss - Snead threw for 240 yards (68%) with 3 TD’s in a 48-13 win over UAB. WIN!
Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan – LeFevour threw for 238 yards (60%) with 2 TD’s with 76 yards rushing (5.1) and another TD in a 34-23 win over Western Michigan. WIN!
Top Honorable Mention performances:
Diondre Borel, Utah St – Borel threw for 353 yards with 3 TD’s while also leading the team with 48 rush yards (2.3) in a 3 point loss to Nevada.
Daryll Clark, Penn St – Clark threw for 287 yards with 1 TD in a 20-0 win over Minnesota.
Nick Foles, Arizona - Foles threw for 415 yards with 3 touchdowns in a 43-38 win over Stanford.
RUNNING BACKS:
MY PICKS: MiQuale Lewis, Ball St and Andre Anderson, Tulane
MiQuale Lewis, Ball St – Lewis rushed for 115 yards (6.4) but did not see the endzone in a 31-17 loss to Bowling Green. I will count this as a win because Lewis came in averaging just 43.8 ypg and 3.3 ypc and this was Lewis’ best game of the year and only his second 100+ yd game in ‘09. WIN!
Andre Anderson, Tulane – Anderson ran for 108 yards (6.0) but zero TD’s while also pulling in 4 receptions (9.5) in a 44-16 loss to Houston. This was only the second 100+ yd game for Anderson in ‘09 and the other 100+ yd game was vs FCS McNeese St. In most fantasy football leagues you receive points when your player rushes for over 100 yds in a game, so I will count Anderson as a WIN!
Top Honorable Mentions:
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St – Thomas ran for 91 yards (5.1) with FOUR touchdowns in a 62-14 throttling of Texas A&M.
DeMaundray Woolridge and Princeton McCarty, Idaho - These two combined for 170 yards rushing (5.2) with Woolridge scoring FOUR touchdowns in a 35-23 win over Hawaii.
Daniel Porter, Louisiana Tech – Porter ran for 132 yards (6.9) but had zero touchdowns in a 45-7 win over New Mexico St.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
MY PICKS: Scott Long, Louisville and Stanley Morrison, Utah St
Scott Long, Louisville – Long grabbed 5 receptions for 58 yards (11.6) but had zero TD’s in a 38-25 loss to Connecticut. Loss
Stanley Morrison, Utah St - Morrison grabbed 5 receptions for 51 yards (10.2) but had 0 TD’s in a 35-32 loss to Nevada. Loss
Top Honorable Mentions:
Jeremy Williams, Tulane - Williams grabbed 6 receptions for 63 yards (10.5) while also rushing for 45 yards (5.6) but did not find the endzone on the ground or through the air in a 44-16 loss to Houston.
DEFENSES:
MY PICKS: Temple and Alabama
Temple vs Army – Temple allowed just 256 total yards in a 27-13 win over Army. WIN
Alabama vs South Carolina – Alabama allowed 278 total yards, but just 64 rushing (2.4) vs South Carolina. South Carolina came in averaging 27.3 ppg and was held to 6 total points here! WIN
UPSET OF THE WEEK
KANSAS ST OVER TEXAS A&M – Kansas St upset Texas A&M 62-14. Not too shabby. This was the biggest margin of victory for any underdog this year as Kansas St was an underdog and led 56-0 late in the 3Q. WIN!!!!!
Now on to my surprise picks for Week 8
Here are my picks for week 8:
QUARTERBACKS (Four picks this week)
MY PICKS: Darryl Clark, Penn St, Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan, Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU and Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Daryll Clark, Penn St
Clark is the Big Ten’s most complete QB and now takes on the Lions’ nemesis Michigan who have beaten PSU the last 5 meetings in Ann Arbor. Clark is #2 in the conference in pass efficiency averaging 236 ypg (62%) with a 13-7 ratio and he should be able to take advantage of a suspect Wolverines’ defense which is allowing 435 ypg and 31 ppg vs BCS conference foes. Clark just needs 1 TD to tie Zack Mills’ career record of 52 and he’ll set the new standard vs the Wolverines. Even though Clark is one of the Big Ten’s best QB’s, his name isn’t thrown out there much nationally and that makes him a surprise pick vs an improved Michigan team.
Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
LeFevour has been a favorite of mine and I selected him as my QB of the week vs Akron (accounted for 6 TD’s) and last week vs Western Michigan (238 pass yds, 75 rush yds, 3 TD’s). LeFevour still is only averaging 221 pass ypg but has completed 69.7% of his passes and has a 14-4 ratio plus is the team’s top rusher with 394 yds (4.4) and 9 TD’s! BG is #86 in the NCAA in total defense allowing 386 ypg including 204 rush ypg (5.8)! BG’s defense has only 8 sacks this year, so LeFevour should have plenty of time to throw or pass and should have another big game this week.
Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU
Mitchell is averaging 235 ypg with a 6-2 ratio the last 3 weeks and should continue to benefit from an improved running game. He will be facing a Houston team that he scorched for 365 yds (74%) & 4 TD’s a year ago as a true freshman. SMU led UH 35-23 into the 4Q last year before falling 44-38. Houston is #55 in my pass D rankings, allowing 226 (62%) with a 6-4 ratio but allowed 250 yds (65%) to a relatively weak Tulane pass offense last week. SMU HC Jones feels like Mitchell is close to taking his game to the next level and we should see evidence of that this week. Picking a young QB facing the #17 team on the road is a surprise pick!
Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Jones is forced into action again this week after Sam Bradford re-injured his shoulder last week vs Texas. Jones hit 25 of 37 for 336 yds with a 6-2 ratio vs Tulsa and just 18 of 30 for 188 yds with a 1-0 ratio vs Miami’s tough D in his 2 starts vs FBS teams this year. Kansas’ defense has allowed 410 ypg and 33 ppg in the last 3 games and has faced a very soft slate. Bradford threw for a school record 468 yds vs Kansas last year and Jones has a great shot at a 300+ yd game this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Thaddeus Lewis, Duke – Picking any player from Duke should count as a surprise pick. Duke has actually made some strides this year and is off a huge upset at NC St and a bye and has a 3-3 record this week heading into a home game against Maryland. Lewis is averaging 267 pass ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio which places him #2 in the ACC in pass ypg. My computer predicts that he will throw for 330 yds vs Maryland’s weak pass defense which ranks #103 in my pass D rankings allowing 219 ypg (58%) with a 12-3 ratio.
Andrew Luck, Stanford – Luck threw for a career best 423 yds and 3 TD’s vs Arizona last week on the road and had 443 yds of total offense which was #2 in school history. On the year Luck is only averaging 227 pass ypg (58%) with a 9-3 ratio, but Luck will be forced to step it up this week with RB Toby Gerhart questionable with an ankle injury. Although Arizona St ranks #18 in my pass defense rankings allowing 190 ypg, they allowed 279 yds to Washington’s Jake Locker last week and most of the other QB’s they have faced are not very strong passers. Luck should have a big week vs a team near the top of the pass D rankings.
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame – After a strong start to 2008 Clausen suffered a meltdown last year against the Eagles tossing a career high 4 interceptions killing drives at the BC 11, in the end zone and at the BC 9. The fourth errant toss was returned 76 yds for a TD in a 17-0 loss. This year the Eagles’ pass defense is ranked #55 in the NCAA allowing 212 ypg (61%) with a 7-7 ratio compared to ‘08’s 177 (56%) with a 9-26 ratio. Clausen is currently #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency (301 pass ypg, 65%, 14-2 ratio) and my computer forecasts that he’ll throw for 375 yds vs the Eagles. Picking a QB who threw 4 int vs a team to have a great game the following year is a surprise pick.
Levi Brown, Troy – Brown certainly isn’t a household name but he is averaging 280 pass ypg (65%) with a 9-4 ratio and has led the Trojans to a 4-2 record (3-0 in Sun Belt play). Last year vs North Texas Brown hit 40 of 50 for 391 yds and 2 TD’s in Troy’s 45-17 win. Can’t get much better than that! North Texas is only allowing 210 pass ypg (54%) with a 6-2 ratio, but they allowed 308 yds and 3 TD’s to FAU’s Smith and 269 yds and 2 TD to Middle Tennessee’s Dasher, and most of the other opponents are rush-first offenses. Brown should have a big game vs the Eagles again this year.
Riley Skinner, Wake Forest – Wake Forest is one of those teams that plays solid and gets little respect. Skinner is having a solid season averaging 254 pass ypg (67%) with a 15-9 ratio, but doesn’t get a lot of hoopla. Wake Forest faced Navy twice last year, and the regular season outing was a train wreck with Skinner throwing 4 int in a 24-17 loss. Skinner made up for that in the bowl hitting 11 of 11 passes which set an NCAA bowl record in their 29-19 win in the EagleBank bowl. Navy is only allowing 199 pass ypg (60%) but ranks #91 in my pass D rankings due to facing a soft slate of opposing QB’s.
Taylor Potts/Steven Sheffield, Texas Tech – Potts missed the Kansas St game 2 weeks ago with a concussion and Sheffield had a huge game in his first start throwing for 490 yds (81%) with a 7-1 ratio. Potts dressed for last week’s game at Nebraska, but didn’t play and Sheffield had another solid game (but un-Texas Tech like numbers) with 234 yds (72%) with a 1-0 ratio. In fact, TT had just 259 TOTAL yards last week on the road vs a tough Nebraska D, but came home with a 31-10 win. Head Coach Leach keeps injuries and starting decisions under wraps, so either guy might go this week vs Texas A&M. My computer predicts that Texas Tech will throw for 438 yds this week vs A&M’s defense that is only allowing 227 pass ypg (59%), so that qualifies as a solid surprise pick.
Colt McCoy, Texas – McCoy entered the ‘09 season as one of the favorites for the Heisman, but hasn’t had a breakout game this year and is only averaging 256 ypg (70%) with just an 11-7 ratio. Last year vs Missouri, McCoy hit 17 straight passes and on the day hit 29 of 32 (91%) for 337 yds with 4 TD’s (2 pass, 2 rush). MU is only allowing 210 pass ypg (58%) with a 7-2 ratio this year. If McCoy has an outing similar to last year’s, he will put himself back on the Heisman map and I think he’s more than capable.
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina – Garcia is a surprise pick because he is only averaging 212 pass ypg (58%) with a 9-4 ratio and is coming off a tough trip to Alabama in which he hit only 44% of his passes for 214 yds with no TD’s and 1 int and was sacked 5 times. The int he threw last week was returned 77 yds for a TD early in the 1st quarter and gave the Tide momentum in the game. SC has been upset by Vanderbilt in each of the last 2 years, but Garcia didn’t see action vs the Commodores last year. Vanderbilt comes in banged up and at 2-5 they are most likely out of bowl contention. Vandy’s pass defense looks good as they are allowing just 134 pass ypg (52%) with a 6-9 ratio, but they have faced a weak slate of opposing QB’s including Army’s option and last week Vandy allowed 399 total yards to a struggling Georgia offense. Although Garcia’s no Tim Tebow, Vandy hasn’t faced a QB playing as well as Garcia is so far this year.
RUNNING BACKS:
MY PICKS: Jahvid Best, Cal
Best is having a good year, but not a great year, yet. Last year he led the Pac-10 in rushing with 1,580 yds (8.1) despite missing a game with injury. So far in ‘09, Best has 616 yds (6.1) with 9 TD’s which averages out to 103 rush ypg (#3 in the Pac-10). Last year vs Washington St, Best rushed for 200 yds (14.3) with 3 TD’s and this year Washington St’s banged up defense (10 lost starts including 3 DL starters who missed the last game) is allowing 200 rush ypg (5.4). After putting up just 3 points vs Oregon and USC, Cal’s offense erupted last week for 45 pts and 494 yds vs a solid UCLA defense and Best rushed for 102 yds (5.7). Best could have another 200 yd rush game vs the Cougars this year.
Honorable Mentions:
Evan Royster, Penn St – After a slow start while the Lions worked out the kinks on their OL, Royster has heated up the last 3 games averaging 112 ypg (7.0) including a season high 137 yds (6.0) in the snow vs Minnesota last week. As the weather turns colder the Lions will need Royster as their workhorse if they want to play in a BCS bowl. Royster should have room to run vs a Michigan defense which is allowing 158 rush ypg (4.3) vs BCS conference foes this year.
Darius Marshall, Marshall - Marshall is #2 in the NCAA averaging 137 rush ypg (6.0), despite being held under 100 yds the last 2 weeks (Tulane, WVU). He set his career high this year with 186 yds vs Bowling Green, which he then broke the following week with 203 yds vs Memphis. This week he faces a UAB team that is #73 in the NCAA in rush defense allowing 148 ypg (4.3). The Herd’s big, physical OL should wear down a young Blazers defense, so expect Marshall to have a big day, especially in the 2nd half.
Keith Toston/Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St – Kendall Hunter has missed the last 4 games due to an ankle injury while the senior Toston has stepped up with 2 big games as the Cowboys have opened 2-0 in Big 12 play. Toston had over 200 total yds vs Texas A&M and 141 vs Missouri and now takes on a Baylor defense which is #100 in the NCAA rush defense rankings allowing 183 ypg (4.3). Hunter has practiced the last 2 weeks and may return to action with Texas on deck, but even if he doesn’t Toston has proven that he’s a more than capable backup.
WIDE RECEIVERS (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss, Randall Cobb, Kentucky
DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss
Brown (PS#7) was a Freshman AA last year with 67 receptions (16.7) & 12 TD’s, but has yet to break out this year after returning from a broken leg suffered in the bowl game. He has just 23 rec (14.6) & 2 TD’s in 6 games (missed UAB game). Brown (6-6, 230) had a solid outing last week vs Memphis with 5 receptions for 83 yds including a 28 yd TD catch. He & QB Young (2nd start) seemed to develop some chemistry as the game progressed. This week he faces a Tulane squad that is banged up in the secondary and ranks #117 in my pass D rankings allowing 72% completions with an 8-3 ratio. Look for Brown to hit his stride in the 2nd half of the season, and I think Brown and Southern Miss are due for a surprise breakout game this week.
Randall Cobb, Kentucky
This guy is a game-changing player no matter what position he’s playing. Cobb is technically a WR, but also plays QB in the Wildcat formation. Last week he ran for 109 yds (9.1) and a TD mostly on direct snaps and led the game winning TD drive in UK’s upset of Auburn. Cobb has 24 rec (13.4) and 239 rush yds (7.5) with 7 TD’s total on the year. Cobb is the team’s top offensive threat and will be relied on heavily with QB Hartline out and RB Locke questionable with knee injuries this week. True freshman QB Newton (PS#13) had a bit of a rough time on the road last week (5 of 13 for 39 yds) vs Auburn’s tough D but should have more success vs ULM this week at home. ULM is allowing 356 ypg (#60 in the NCAA), but Cobb should have a large percentage of UK’s offense this week no matter which position he is playing.
Honorable Mentions:
Mike Williams, Syracuse – Williams is one of the best WR’s that you’ve never heard of and the offensive highlight of a 2-4 Orange team. Williams has 45 receptions for 712 yds with 6 TD’s and averages 119 rec ypg this year. Williams had monster games vs USF (13-186 with 2 TD) and Northwestern (11-209, 2 TD). Backup QB Ryan Nassib has more downfield passing ability than starter Greg Paulus and Nassib took over at halftime in the last game and completed a 50 yd pass to Williams. Nassib figures to see more action this week and Williams will benefit.
Ryan Whalen, Stanford – Whalen is #2 in the Pac-10 averaging 79.1 receiving ypg on 32 rec’s with an average of 17.3 ypc. He has two 100+ yd receiving games this year vs 2 solid defenses (Wake Forest & UCLA). This week Stanford is off back-to-back road losses in Pac-10 play and returns home to play Arizona St. RB Toby Gerhart is questionable for this game with a sprained ankle which means the Cardinal will be forced to go to the passing game. Arizona St is only allowing 190 pass ypg (53%) with an 8-13 ratio, but my computer predicts that Stanford will throw for 263 yds this week and that doesn’t even account for a questionable Gerhart.
Antonio Brown, Central Michigan – Brown is one of the top all-purpose players in the nation (#5) averaging 191 ypg but doesn’t get the publicity that other guys like CJ Spiller of Clemson or Dezmon Briscoe of Kansas get. Brown leads CM with 43 receptions (11.1) and 6 TD but is also the team’s #2 rusher (after QB LeFevour) with 233 yds (11.1). My computer predicts CM will have 431 total yds this week vs BG and Brown and LeFevour account for 78% of CM’s total offense.
Vincent Brown, San Diego St – This is another guy that’s really having a great season but is mostly under the national radar. Brown is #3 in the NCAA in receiving ypg with 129.7 on 45 receptions for 778 yds (17.3) and 6 TD’s. He accounts for a little over half of SDSt’s receiving yds this year. This week they face Colorado St which ranks #80 in my pass D rankings allowing 254 ypg. Brown has five 100+ yd receiving games this year (out of 6), and should easily have another big week at Colorado St.
DEFENSES (Two picks this week)
MY PICKS: Notre Dame and South Carolina
Notre Dame vs Boston College
HUH? Why would I pick Notre Dame’s defense which ranks #104 in the NCAA in total defense allowing 420 ypg? The Irish are allowing 25.5 ppg which ranks #71 in the NCAA, but I think they will have one of the best defensive performances of the week, and I know you are surprised with this pick! Boston College is averaging 326 ypg and 30.9 ppg, but has struggled in their 2 previous road games this year averaging just 10.5 ppg and incredibly just 109 total ypg. Notre Dame’s defense shutout a solid Nevada offense in the opener, and they are getting tired of all the negative publicity and will answer the critics this week.
South Carolina vs Vanderbilt
ASC outgained Vandy 325-225 last year but was upset 24-17 and in 2007, SC held Vandy to 269 total yds and 12 first downs but lost 17-6. SC’s defense has been strong particularly at home where they have allowed just 14 ppg in the last 11 home games. SC LB Norwood made my First Team Midseason AA list with 6 sacks and 2 int and is very disruptive every week. Vandy’s offense is struggling this year averaging just 7.2 ppg and just 226 ypg in SEC play. SC is off a loss and playing with revenge and should have no problem shutting down Vandy’s one-dimensional offense this week. My computer calls for Vandy to get 213 yards and just 4 points.
Honorable Mentions:
Ohio St vs Minnesota-Last year I used the Buckeyes as my Defense of the Week vs the Gophers and they allowed 119 yds going into the 4Q before putting in the backups with a 34-6 lead. The Gophers stayed with their starters and racked up 149 yds and 2 garbage time TD’s on their final 2 drives. OSU has a proud defense which will want to atone for last week’s performance in the loss to Purdue in which their bend-but-don’t-break defense was finally broken for 2 big 3Q TD passes. Minny in the meantime has struggled in their transition from the spread to a power offense and last week they had just 7 FD and 138 total yds vs a comparable defense in Penn St. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 23.1 ppg and 294 ypg, but my computer calls for the Gophers to have just 8 pts and 170 total yds including just 20 on the ground and I think the Buckeyes won’t be as quick to put in the backups this year.
Boise St vs Hawaii-The Broncos are up to #5 in the BCS standings and need to impress the pollsters with blowouts from here on out as they are unlikely to face any ranked teams the rest of the way. The Broncos face a Warriors offense which is led by QB Bryant Moniz who is making his 3rd career start in the place of Greg Alexander (knee) who was knocked out for the season vs Louisiana Tech. Moniz is averaging 321 ypg (57%) with a 3-3 ratio in his 2 starts but expect those numbers to shrink vs a Broncos defense allowing 178 pass ypg (55%) with a 7-9 ratio. BSU has just 10 sacks on the season but expect those numbers to rise vs an inexperienced QB with an OL which ranks #110 in the NCAA with 19 sacks allowed.
Oklahoma vs Kansas-Oklahoma’s D is #3 in the NCAA allowing just 9.7 ppg and #8 in total defense allowing just 258 total ypg. Kansas comes in #2 in the NCAA in total offense averaging 503 ypg and #5 in scoring offense averaging 38.8 ppg. Something’s got to give, and I think Oklahoma will prove me right by holding Kansas well below their season averages. My computer predicts that Kansas will have 347 total yds in the game which is 156 yds below their average and the Sooners should take out their frustrations on the Jayhawks this week.
Florida vs Mississippi St-It’s no secret that Florida has a great defense and the Gators are #2 in the NCAA in total defense allowing 228 ypg and #1 in the NCAA allowing just 8.7 ppg. Mississippi St Head Coach Mullen was Urban Meyer’s OC at Florida last year and has tried to replicate the Gators offense at MSU (but with far less talent and depth). Normally this could be a tough spot for the Gators on the road with rival Georgia on deck, but after last week’s last minute escape, expect full effort from the Gators in this one. My computer predicts 10 pts and 269 total yds for the Bulldogs, but the Gators could get a shutout here.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
MY PICK: Washington
I doubt this will match last week’s blowout win with Kansas St leading Texas A&M 59-0 in the 3Q, but I will go with Washington over Oregon. Look at the Huskies body of work at home this year. They played an LSU team that is currently #9 in the polls at 5-1 and Washington had a 478-321 yard edge losing by 8 at home. They played a USC team that is currently #7 in the polls at 5-1 and the Trojans who won AT Ohio St and AT California and AT Notre Dame, lost to the Huskies here in Seattle 16-13. They took on #22 Arizona and pulled the upset 36-33! That is 3 ranked teams at home with two of them in the top 10 and they have two upsets and their one loss they outgained their foe by 157 yards! Jake Locker is now atop some draft experts’ boards at the QB position. For all that Washington has accomplished they are 3-4 and this is a must win.
