Atlanta at Dallas

		Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
ATLANTA		90	233	24	0	#10
DALLAS		162	310	22	2	#9

This is a tough situation spot for Atlanta who traveled to San Fran 2 weeks ago, faced Chicago on Sunday Night Football and now start a stretch of 4 road games in the next 5 weeks. Dallas on the other hand is rested, revamped (promoting Miles Austin to #2 WR to add speed) and ready. Dallas’ big OL is a huge plus as they averaging 161 yards per game on the ground versus a smaller Atlanta DL giving up 118 yards per game rushing that doesn’t have a real NT to anchor the line due to injuries. Atlanta was outplayed by Chicago last week (outgained 373-253) and realistically should have lost the game if not for the Bears shooting themselves in the foot. Dallas gets a home win versus a good team to add credibility for the team.

FORECAST: DAL 35 ATL 16

Indianapolis at St Louis

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
INDIANAPOLIS	106	315	34	2	#23
ST LOUIS	107	188	5	2	#13

The Colts have the longest win streak in the NFL (12) versus the Rams who have the longest losing streak (16). Indianapolis has won 4 straight after a bye week and will get back SS Bob Sanders here. This has the makings of another New England/Tennessee game as Manning is averaging 326 yards per game (74%) with a 12-4 ratio. St Louis is very thin at WR here and Spagnuolo hinted that he may have to do a rotation at both LT and RT as he searches for the best combo on the line. I don’t think Bulger will get any time here and takes a huge step up from the Jaguars #30 pass defense with a 12-5 ratio to the Colts #9 pass defense that has a 8-19 ratio over the last 21 games.

FORECAST: IND 38 STL 14

New Orleans at Miami

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
NEW ORLEANS	99	268	30	1	#27
MIAMI	135	205	22	1	#14

Miami is in a good spot coming in off a bye versus a non-conf foe that is off a major win and has a Monday Night Football division game on deck. On the other hand their 2 wins have been versus Buffalo and the Jets who have the #25 and #30 passing units this year and they have gone 0-3 versus good passing teams like Atlanta (#15), Indy (#1) and San Diego (#5). New Orleans has yet to play from behind at any point this year and  Brees is averaging 280 yards per game (69%) with a 13-2 ratio. They have only been outgained 1 time this year and that was versus PHI when TO’s gave them great field position. I wouldn’t be surprised to see new Wildcat plays and Miami will try to control the time of possession with the ground game. However they have in the box safeties that struggle versus the pass and 2 rookies at the top 3 CB spots and New Orleans should beat another team by 14 pts here.

FORECAST: NO 30 MIA 13

New England at Tampa Bay

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
NEW ENGLAND	180	263	37	1	#28
TAMPA BAY	100	95	11	2	#4

This is the 3rd year in a row the NFL will play in London. Roger Goodell wants to play 2 games there in 2010 with a team located there eventually and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it be the Jaguars. New England has a massive edge here with the #4 and #6 units (+8 turnovers) versus the Bucs #28 and #27 units (-1 turnovers). The Bucs put in a lot of effort versus Carolina last week, gave up a pair of 100+ yd rushers and won’t get here until Saturday morning meaning they will still be jet lagged (New England here Friday morning). While New England is thin at WR and RB here they have the edge with Brady versus Josh Johnson in his 4th career start and 1st versus a 3-4 defense. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been in the media spotlight so long they’ll treat this as just another “West Coast” road trip while Tampa Bay is outclassed in virtually every aspect here.

FORECAST: NE 31 TB 13

San Diego at Kansas City

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
SAN DIEGO	83	260	25	2	#2
KANSAS CITY	110	220	21	1	#7

San Diego is off a humiliating loss on Monday Night where they gave up 2 special teams TD’s to Denver and the most talented team in the AFC West has basically given away the division. Kansas City basically played a perfect game last week versus Washington (4 penalties) and was helped out by 2 blunders on WAS punts late in the game to give them 2 FG’s and the win. Tomlinson has gotten very old very fast and hasn’t had a 100 yd rushing game in 11 tries and San Diego is only averaging 57.6 yards per game rushing so far this year. The key here is Rivers who has 303 yards per game passing (59%) with a 7-3 ratio versus KC’s #25 pass defense giving up a 10-3 ratio. I think San Diego gets to .500 here versus a Chiefs team that has been outscored 60-19 in the 1st and 3rd quarters combined and has yet to score a rushing TD.

Forecast: SD 24 KC 10

Chicago at Cincinnati

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
CHICAGO	77	228	23	2	#1
CINCINNATI	78	248	21	2	#26

Both teams have been hit with their share of defensive with Chicago missing 2 LB’s here and Cincinnati losing their best pass rusher in Antwan Odom (8 sacks). Cincy was caught flat last week versus Houston as they were off 3 close division wins and were emotionally spent after putting forth a huge effort for DC Zimmer. Chicago outplayed Atlanta statistically last week but turnovers in the red zone and penalties did them in. Cincy has yet to get a 100 quarterback rating game out of Palmer this year while Chicago has gotten 3 out of Cutler. I wouldn’t be surprised to see former Chicago 1st round draft choice Cedric Benson to have a good game here but I think the Bears are an under the radar team with some upside and Cincinnati’s injury situation is a concern.

Forecast: CHI 24 CIN 23

Green Bay at Cleveland

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
GREEN BAY	131	255	21	2	#19
CLEVELAND	113	148	14	3	#6

Cleveland has been wracked by the flu bug this week and just who they’ll have available here is uncertain. They also lost one of their best players on the team with D’Qwell Jackson landing on injured reserve. The long view of 2009 for Browns fans is that this is a 16 game preseason for 2010 as they have a lot of players growing into the system and finding their way. Green Bay beat Detroit 26-0 last week but gave up 5 sacks and they are expected to rest LT Clifton (ankle) to get him ready for the Minnesota game next week. Green Bay has plenty of firepower at QB and WR which are 2 of Cleveland’s weakest areas with 4 offensive TD’s in 12 games, a 3.9 yards per carry, and have been outscored 74-33 in the second half.

Forecast: GB 28 CLE 10

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
MINNESOTA	79	205	27	1	#5
PITTSBURGH	93	320	26	2	#8

Pittsburgh is in a good situation here at home for the 2nd week with a newly re-sodded field that will be exposed to the elements to make it soggy and slow for Minnesota’s #1 pass rush. Minnesota dominated a stout Baltimore team thru the 1st 3 quarters then relaxed up 27-10. Baltimore blasted their way back with two long TD drives and 33 yard drive set up by good special teams/field position play in the 4Q. Pittsburgh has had some Super Bowl hangover as they have struggled without SS Polamalu and the run game has been pretty inconsistent. I think this will be a great battle with Dick LeBeau’s schemes versus Favre’s experience but Minnesota should get enough out of Adrian Peterson to get a late second win.

Forecast: MIN 20 PIT 17

San Francisco at Houston

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
SAN FRANCISCO	99	198	23	1	#22
HOUSTON	53	345	28	2	#3

This game features a pair of polar opposite teams in terms of philosophy and strengths. San Fran has the #29 offense and #15 defense (+5 turnovers) while Houston has the #8 offense and #19 defense (+2 turnovers). San Fran is desperate to get it’s #28 passing game on track as they will start Crabtree to get some vertical separation but I don’t have a lot of faith in his ability to be an impact player here. He will open some space for Gore versus Houston’s #24 rush defense (4.9) but I think Houston took a long look at how Atlanta exposed the San Fran secondary. Schaub is averaging 329 yards per game (67%) with a 14-4 ratio minus the Jets game and San Fran isn’t anything special in the pass rush (#21) or pass defense (#20). I think Houston takes San Fran out of its ball control element early and forces them to pass where they can get in on a QB that has been sacked once every 9 pass attempts.

Forecast: HOU 30 SF 14

NY Jets at Oakland

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
NY JETS	175	145	17	1	#11
OAKLAND	92	168	13	3	#24

This isn’t an ideal situation for the Jets who are off a tough MNF loss to Miami, a Bills loss in poor weather, travel out to the West Coast and have a rematch versus Miami on deck. The Jets turned the ball over 6 times last week versus Buffalo but rushed for 318 yards (8.0) in their loss as OC Schottenheimer admitted to forcing the ball too WR Edwards too much. The Jets took a big hit with the loss of NT Kris Jenkins (knee) and will be without #2 WR Cotchery as well. Oakland surprised Philadelphia with a short passing game on offense and went from man to man to zone coverage on defense. They are still pretty undermanned on the OL and 1 decent game by Russell this year isn’t enough to sell me on a turnaround. I have more faith in a Rex Ryan defense that has been embarrassed the last 3 weeks versus a very inconsistent OAK team.

Forecast: NYJ 24 OAK 6

Buffalo at Carolina

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
BUFFALO	113	105	16	2	#21
CAROLINA	205	121	21	2	#31

The Bills stole a win from the Jets last week thanks to +6 turnovers despite giving up 318 yards rushing (240 yards per game, 5.9 the last 4 weeks). They will start Ryan Fitzpatrick here and he played pretty decently coming off the bench versus the #11 defense. Carolina has plenty of tape to breakdown on him as he started 12 games for Cincinnati last year going 4-7-1 and he’ll be working behind an OL with four first year starters here. Buffalo also had 3 of 4 starters in the secondary miss practice this week. Carolina is getting back to Panther ball as both Stewart and Williams had 100+ yard games last week and they only had 4 players on the injury report this week. Carolina has beaten the #23 and #28 offenses back to back weeks and now gets the #25 offense at home after having played a full OT game.

Forecast: CAR 27 BUF 13

Arizona at NY Giants

	Rush	Pass	Pts	TO	ST
ARIZONA	25	245	23	1	#17
NY GIANTS	112	258	25	2	#29

The Cardinals went 0-5 in the regular season last year on the East Coast and beat Jacksonville 31-17 in week two. They throttled a depleted Seattle team last week and took advantage of an OL that couldn’t handle their speed rushers. They get another injury-depleted defense in the Giants who many say were exposed last week versus New Orleans. The Giants didn’t play a lot of man coverage versus New Orleans last week and were heavy into zones with little blitz pressure. They have had a very up-tempo practice this week and Cardinals WR Boldin is a game time decision due to an ankle injury.

Forecast: NYG 27 ARZ 20