Seattle at Dallas

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
SEATTLE	86	198	19	2	#23
DALLAS	131	268	25	1	#5

Last year Dallas destroyed Seattle 34-9 with a 447-322 yd edge & tallied 7 sacks. The Cowboys are off a win vs a quality foe in the Falcons last week & now get an inconsistent SEA team. Both of Seattle’s wins have been shutouts (St Louis & Jacksonville) but 3 of their 4 losses have been by 13 or more points. In Seattle’s defense they have had no offensive line stability (12 different combos in 22 games) & injuries have hurt them on defense. Dallas’ main advantage here their huge offensive line vs a smaller, faster front 7 that is without their best player on defense in MLB Tatupa. This is a game the Cowboys should & must win as they have Philadelphia & Green Bay on the road next to show they can be a consistent force in the NFC.

FORECAST: DALLAS 34 Seattle 17

San Francisco at Indianapolis

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
SAN FRANCISCO	88	105	14	1	#14
INDIANAPOLIS	102	285	33	1	#24

This game has the Colts #4 & #9 units (+4 turnovers) versus the 49ers #29 & #15 units (+4 turnovers). This is a real bad matchup with Alex Smith in his 1st start in almost 2 years with a new RT on the road vs a Colts defense allowing 80 yards per game rushing (3.9) with an 8-21 ratio the last 22 games. I like Frank Gore as an elite RB but aside from his 200+ yard game vs SEA he only has 66 total yards rushing (1.7) on the year. Indy is clearly not letting up until they get the #1 seed in the AFC & Manning is 22-5 vs the NFC with a 66-17 ratio.

FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 38 San Francisco 17

Minnesota at Green Bay

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
MINNESOTA	99	160	23	2	#3
GREEN BAY	96	283	27	1	#17

Brett Favre returns to Green Bay. Minnesota beat Green Bay 30-23 on Monday night as the Vikings defense pulled in 8 sacks, 1 safety & forced 2 turnovers. Green Bay is off 2 big wins versus 2 of the worst teams in the NFL in Detroit & Cleveland (average 448-144 in yard edges). Their offensive line is still a big question to me as they allowed 5 sacks to Detroit & LT Clifton will be a game-time decision & I expect C Spitz to miss his 3rd straight game. Weather isn’t expected to be a factor & while the Minny defense won’t have crowd noise or turf on its side they are the better unit. Green Bay’s #3 defensive ranking is inflated by Detroit & Cleveland while Minnesota has outplayed 2 tough teams in Baltimore & Pittsburgh. Favre is at his best in emotional situations & I am confident in the Vikings here.

FORECAST: Minnesota 31 GREEN BAY 17

Jacksonville at Tennessee

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
JACKSONVILLE	99	250	25	2	#25
TENNESSEE	157	228	24	3	#31

The Titans are moving to Vince Young for the rest of the season & it makes sense as they have to know if he can indeed be their franchise QB. However, he didn’t get the benefit of a full bye weeks worth of snaps & wasn’t named #1 until halfway thru the Thursday practice session which means Fisher doesn’t have a lot of confidence in him. Both teams have very beat up secondaries & I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a shootout. Garrard is further along & has a reliable set of WR’s to work with finally & I don’t have a lot of faith in a TEN defense that is -10 in turnovers & will be on its 4th return specialist TY.

FORECAST: Jacksonville 28 TENNESSEE 21

Denver at Baltimore

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
DENVER	108	218	19	1	#20
BALTIMORE	115	238	22	1	#13

Denver comes into this game with the #9 & #2 units (+7 turnovers) versus Baltimore #6 & #19 units (+2 turnovers). Baltimore has been seething over the bye week due to 3 straight losses that were all due to mistakes & meltdowns in big situations. What really impresses me for Denver is the fact they lead the NFL in “dead money” paid out to players no longer on the roster & are still 6-0. Denver’s big edge here is with their WR’s vs a shaky set of CB’s & I while I respect the Baltimore pass rush the Denver OL has only given up 1 sack every 22 pass attempts. This will be a very tough & physical game but in the end the Broncos will get the win on a late drive by Orton.

FORECAST: Denver 21 BALTIMORE 17

Cleveland at Chicago

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
CLEVELAND	91	143	13	2	#1
CHICAGO	134	245	27	2	#6

Aside from Josh Cribbs there really isn’t anything going right for the Browns this year & it’s so bad that owner Randy Lerner who shuns the spotlight, had to make a public comment about backing the staff & the direction of the team. Chicago is in a very foul mood here after getting blown out 45-10 vs Cincinnati & Lovie Smith has juggled the OL, LB & CB’s here. Cleveland leads the NFL with 22 dropped passes which helps account for Derek Anderson having a 10.3 QBR on 3rd down & the Browns only having 3 TD’s in 18 quarters since the switch from Quinn. Cleveland has no punch on either side of the ball & 2009 is an extended preseason for them & I think the Bears get things back on track here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 30 Cleveland 10

Houston at Buffalo

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
HOUSTON	90	250	20	2	#8
BUFFALO	109	238	21	2	#9

This is Houston’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks with a road game versus Indianapolis on deck. The injury depleted Bills have stolen their last 2 games vs better teams thanks to being +8 in turnovers. They now face Matt Schaub who leads the NFL in passing TD’s (16) & only has 5 interceptions. Buffalo will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick for the 2nd week & I doubt a Buffalo offensive line with four 1st year starters that has given up 21 sacks this year will have an easy time with Mario Williams. Buffalo only had 1 drive over 30 yards last week & with Andre Johnson (bruised lung) expected to play here this game could get out of hand quickly.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 31 BUFFALO 17

Miami at NY Jets

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
MIAMI	135	165	21	2	#18
NY JETS	158	183	24	2	#16

Miami beat the Jets 31-27 in the 1st meeting just 3 weeks ago with a 413-309 yard edge & the Jets were furious with themselves calling the Dolphins offense a bunch of gadgetry. Since then the Jets have lost NT Kris Jenkins & RB Leon Washington who was one of the better multi-skilled weapons in the NFL. They got right vs OAK last week & became the 1st team since the 1975 Bills to rush for 300 yards in back-to-back games. Miami is off a brutally tough loss to New Orleans where they blew a 21 point lead at home. Henne now has to make his 1st road start vs a Jets team that has traditionally dominated the game & I like how Rex Ryan said he’s “taking this game personally.”

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 20 Miami 9

St Louis at Detroit

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
ST LOUIS	121	180	14	2	#11
DETROIT	132	213	25	1	#30

On the surface this is the least exciting game of the week but this could have historical importance as if the Rams lose here I am not so sure they can win at all in 2009. The good news for Detroit is that they are off a bye, get Stafford back & are a better team than last year. Neither team has a good pass defense & I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a higher scoring game. St Louis has only scored 5 offensive TD’s this year while giving up 5 on returns. The Rams have had as many problems finding a healthy set of WR’s to field this year as they have had trying to get a group of OL. I think the more rested team with extra time to gameplan that has had to deal with a shutout loss for an extra week will come out ahead in the end.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 28 St Louis 20

Oakland at San Diego

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
OAKLAND	80	128	9	3	#26
SAN DIEGO	147	260	34	0	#4

San Diego has won 12 straight over the Raiders. The Chargers took a step in the right direction last week as they dominated the Chiefs with a 37-7 win & 403-203 yd edge. Oakland was shutout 38-0 last week at home & Cable finally benched Russell after the 1H. San Diego has shaken up the defense the last 2 weeks to spur some better play out of disappointing starters & get an Oakland team with shaken confidence. Oakland hasn’t scored 14 points since the season opener, only have 5 offensive TD’s all year & has been outscored 80-20 in the 1st & 3rd quarters combined which means the coaches don’t have a gameplan coming in & don’t make adjustments. San Diego has all the edges here & need a big division win to have any hope to catch up to Denver.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 Oakland 10

Carolina at Arizona

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
CAROLINA	97	205	14	2	#32
ARIZONA	65	220	29	1	#15

I was impressed with how the Cardinals defense out-muscled the Giants offense last week. They kept Eli off balance & forced him into big errors at key times. They now return home vs a CAR defense that has risen from #23 to #4 over the last 3 weeks vs offenses ranked 24th or lower. Turnovers have killed Carolina this year & Delhomme has 3 interceptions for every TD that he has thrown this year. Arizona plays defense with an attacking offense that puts up points on the scoreboard which forces teams to pass more & run less while making mistakes. Arizona is very familiar with Delhomme as this will be the 8th time since 2002 they have met which helps out the Cardinals coaching staff who didn’t get back until early Monday morning after the Sunday Night game & I like the home team here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 30 Carolina 21

NY Giants at Philadelphia

	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	Teams
NY GIANTS	115	208	21	2	#22
PHILADELPHIA	74	240	24	2	#19

The Giants come in off back-to-back losses with Eli hitting just 48% in his last 2 games. The Giants only have 1 win this year vs a foe with a winning record & the media is starting to question if they are as good as they think. The Eagles dominated the Monday Night game vs Washington more than the final score indicated but they could be without RB Westbrook (concussion) here. Westbrook is the key to the offense & while McCoy did a good job last week I don’t have as much confidence in his pass blocking vs the Giants here. The Giants haven’t lost 3 in a row since 2006 & I think they pull out a close one here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY Giants 24 PHILADELPHIA 20