SEATTLE at MINNESOTA

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
SEATTLE	84	233	20	1	#23
MINNESOTA	127	280	32	1	#5

This is a tough spot for SEA who are in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & have another road game vs STL on deck. They are rather unbalanced offensively (#27 run, #13 pass) & will be without #1 RB Jones (bruised lung) here. While MIN had a 492-297 yd edge vs DET last week they were sloppy to start the game & I noticed they put some unusual plays on tape in the game to force other teams to prep for them burn practice time. Favre lost in SEA 13-3 last year with the Jets in the snow but he’s got a better team with him now, a healthy arm & in ideal conditions. MIN is chasing NO for the #1 seed in the NFC & I side with a physical power team vs a speed oriented NFC West team on the road.

FORECAST: MINNESOTA 38 Seattle 20

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
NY JETS	140	155	14	2	#30
NEW ENGLAND	118	350	34	2	#16

The Jets pulled a major upset in the 1st meeting as they beat NE 16-9 & held Brady to 66 yards (40%) in the 2H. Things are vastly different this time as Brady has his mechanics (349 ypg, 73%, 13-4 the last 4 weeks), Moss who struggled with a back injury last time is healthy, WR Welker & LB Mayo will start after missing the 1st meeting, the Jets will be without NT Jenkins & RB Washington & Belichick has plenty of tape on Sanchez. NE will be focused & livid after last week’s loss to IND & I believe Belichick’s call on 4th & 2 was the right play as they put the game in the hands of Brady & not a rebuilding defense. I firmly believe that the Patriots will show the Jets just who is in charge of the AFC East here.

FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 NY Jets 10

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
INDIANAPOLIS	76	273	23	1	#25
BALTIMORE	124	238	22	1	#6

The Colts simply matchup well vs the Ravens winning 6 straight by a 26-11 avg score. The bad news for BAL is that DE/OLB Suggs (3.5 sacks) will miss but they will get NT Ngata back for this game. I wasn’t impressed by BAL’s 16-0 win vs CLE on MNF as they didn’t dominate one of the worst offensive teams I’ve seen in a long time. Manning (312 ypg, 71%, 16-5) faces a BAL secondary who’s weaknesses at CB have been masked by a favorable schedule the last 2 weeks. The Ravens have struggled vs good QB’s TY giving up 24 points per game to Rivers, Brady, Palmer (twice) & Favre. Locking up the AFC South isn’t the goal for the Colts the #1 seed in the AFC is & I think the Colts win big vs a beat up BAL defense.

FORECAST: Indianapolis 24 BALTIMORE 10

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
ATLANTA	130	140	24	2	#4
NY GIANTS	160	263	27	2	#19

The bye week did wonders for the Giants as not only did PHI & DAL lose the roster got a lot healthier & they had 53 players practice on Thursday. ATL comes in on their 4th road game in 5 weeks & will start RB Norwood who has missed the last 4 games over Turner (high ankle sprain) who will miss. ATL’s #25 defense is smallish & has several rookies & 1st year players at key spots who are starting to wear down & are giving up 391 ypg & 27 ppg on the road. I think the Giants finally go with their run game here (Jacobs doesn’t have a 100 yd game yet) & wear down the Falcons for the win.

FORECAST: NY GIANTS 28 Atlanta 10

CLEVELAND at DETROIT

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
CLEVELAND	104	140	13	2	#2
DETROIT	168	225	19	2	#31

This is actually an important game for the NFL as the loser will likely get the #1 pick in the 2009 Draft & take Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh. Browns QB’s have a 3-29  ratio over the last 15 games, have only scored 5 offensive TD’s vs 28 by the 1999 Browns & their special teams took a huge blow with P Zastudil landing on IR & Cribbs is unknown right now. Quinn needs to rebound after the MNF game vs the Lions #32 pass defense allowing a 20-6 ratio to prove he can make it in the league & I wouldn’t be surprised if Mangini is let go if the Browns get blown out. This is one of the few times DET will have better playmakers & matchups & I think Calvin Johnson dominates here.

FORECAST: DETROIT 17 Cleveland 13

BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
BUFFALO	104	188	20	2	#9
JACKSONVILLE	193	238	23	2	#18

The Bills let go Dick Jauron who has a great reputation as a person & a DC in the NFL but his Head Coaching stints have been less than successful. They will go with DC Perry Fewell who started out under Jauron as a secondary coach. Fewell is going to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick who had 162 yds (68%) with a 2-1 ratio with CIN vs the Jags last year. BUF has 11 players on IR & had 8 players who missed part of practice on Thursday. JAX got a nice win vs the Jets last week as they turned the tables on them & blitzed their OL to disrupt Sanchez. The Jags will be without 3 defensive starters here (DT Stroud, CB Mathis & S Alexander) & while I think BUF will bring more offensively here (Jauron is notoriously conservative) they won’t be able to stop Jones-Drew (133 ypg, 5.6) here.

FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 34 Buffalo 13

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
PITTSBURGH	142	225	25	1	#24
KANSAS CITY	57	198	11	1	#11

PIT faces the former Cardinals OC & DC that they beat in the Super Bowl last year. PIT enters with massive stat edges here with the #9 & #2 units (-4 TO’s) vs KC’s #30 & #27 units (+2 TO’s) who has allowed 400 yards offense in 6 games this year. PIT Head Coach Tomlin is very upset with his team as they have given up a return of some sort in each of the last 7 games. They will be in a foul mood after losing to CIN at home last week & are fighting for a Wildcard spot barring a CIN collapse right now. KC lost their best playmaker WR Bowe (33 rec 14.1) for 4 games with a suspension. KC is overmatched in the trenches on both sides fo the ball (30th sacks allowed & by) & the Steelers will have lot of fans for this game here.

FORECAST: Pittsburgh 41 KANSAS CITY 10

SAN FRAN at GREEN BAY

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
SAN FRANCISCO	59	190	16	3	#14
GREEN BAY	111	243	24	0	#29

GB is off their best game of the year vs DAL as they shook off the 2 losses to MIN & the embarrassing loss to TB. However they gave up 4 sacks (41 this year) vs DAL & their starting center Wells (concussion) is very questionable & GB could field their 7th different OL here. SF only has 6 sacks in the last 5 games but I am reminded of how they overloaded the A-gaps vs IND & kept Manning off balance. SF has 3 extra days rest & I’m not too sure if the 49ers can run on GB who’ve held teams to 75 ypg (3.2) over the last 6 weeks. SF also doesn’t have the WR’s to challenge GB’s great CB tandem of Harris & Woodson. I think the Packers will get the win here but it will be tough here.

FORECAST: GREEN BAY 23 San Francisco 17

WASHINGTON at DALLAS

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
WASHINGTON	86	173	11	2	#15
DALLAS	130	206	24	1	#3

DAL owns the #13 & #8 units (+1 TO’s) the last 4 weeks vs the Redskins’ #22 & #4 units (-4 TO’s). WAS KO’d Orton last week & then held DEN to 36 yds total in the entire 2H for the win. They now take on a DAL team that was embarrassed at GB last week just when everyone started to believe in them. DAL lost RT Columbo (broken leg) for the year & will be without SS Hamlin here as well. I like how the Redksins offense looked with RB Betts at the helm last week as they had 174 yds (4.4) on the ground. While HOU LB Cushing is the front runner for Def Rookie of the Year, Brian Orakpo (32 tackles, 7 sacks) could have a big game vs RT Doug Free who is playing in his 1st start & 10th game overall. Records mean nothing in this rivalry & while Haynesworth (ankle) is a gametime decision I think the Redskins can keep this fairly close.

FORECAST: DALLAS 24 Washington 14

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
NEW ORLEANS	167	253	35	2	#22
TAMPA BAY	110	215	22	2	#1

NO owns the #2 & #27 units vs TB’s #28 & #23 units the last 4 weeks. While TB is just 1-8, I have to commend them for starting Josh Freeman when they did & he’s basically saved the season & given Bucs fans something to look forward too in 2010. TB won’t be intimidated by the Saints offense as they’ve seen it the last 2 years & while they don’t matchup talent wise they won’t be shell-shocked. NO has tied an NFL record for 13 giveaways while winning 4 straight but their talent level & the play of Brees in the clutch has kept them undefeated. NO has a huge game on deck vs NE & could be looking ahead here. NO will only have 4 healthy starting CB’s here with 1 being the just signed Chris McAllister & they may rest Reggie Bush (knee). I think TB has a chance to keep this closer than expected but I don’t think they pull an upset.

FORECAST: New Orleans 23 TAMPA BAY 16

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
ARIZONA	109	258	28	2	#7
ST LOUIS	132	238	12	2	#21

STL found itself in a good situation last week as they were off a bye with extra time to plan & rest. Reggie Bush noted afterwards they were very energized to play them & they were caught by surprise a bit. RB Jackson had a great day with 176 (5.0) total yards but I think ARZ has a much better grasp of the STL keys than NO does. ARZ has been solid on the road TY going winning all 4 by a 31-15 margin. STL’s top 3 DE’s sat out practice on Wed/Thur but I think they’ll play & support a Rams secondary that will play together for the 1st time since opening week. I think the Cardinals are the better team & they know the best way to neutralize Jackson is to go up big early & Warner is 25-4 in STL.

FORECAST: Arizona 28 ST LOUIS 10

CINCINNATI at OAKLAND

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
CINCINNATI	160	200	24	1	#17
OAKLAND	94	138	3	3	#20

CIN is atop the AFC North after back to back wins vs BAL & PIT & are primed for a letdown as they travel out to the West Coast. The Bengals have a huge talent edge on offense but the Raiders do have playmakers on defense & they led the upset of PHI not too long ago. OAK finally had enough of Russell & benched him for the year for Bruce Gradkowski who makes his 13th career start. This is his 1st start since last year’s season final for CLE vs PIT where he had 1.0 QBR in a 31-0 loss. OAK does need to find out if its the QB or the talent surrounding them for their 2-7 season & Cable has nothing to lose at this point. I think CIN gets the win but the Raiders could be a dangerous team here.

FORECAST: Cincinnati 20 OAKLAND 13

SAN DIEGO at DENVER

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
SAN DIEGO	86	213	26	1	#10
DENVER	101	248	21	1	#27

Kyle Orton has missed all of the practice sessions this week but McDaniels is holding out hope that he’ll be able to start here. In DEN’s 6 game win streak they had a 368-263 yd edge (+7 TO’s) with a 22-11 avg score. After the bye week DEN shortcomings in the intermediate passing game were exposed & DEN has been outgained 352-249 (-4 TO’s) & outscored 28-11. SD has accepted it is a pass to set up the run team & Rivers has been solid since the DEN loss avg 239 ypg (67%) with a 9-3 ratio & has only been sacked 5 times vs 15 in the 1st 5 games. If Orton was playing this would be the game of the week but I really don’t have a lot of confidence in Simms (13 yds, 23%, 1 int last week) even with a full week of snaps here. SD has the momentum here & their pass rush is starting to get in gear (16 sacks the last 4 weeks) & the Chargers get the win.

FORECAST: San Diego 27 DENVER 20

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO

	Rushing	Passing	Points	Overs	Teams
PHILADELPHIA	94	255	25	2	#26
CHICAGO	87	230	20	2	#13

CHI was flat out embarrassed vs SF as Cutler threw 5 ints but he had 300 yds passing & had the team in position to win the game when he was int’d on in the end zone of the final play. PHI is a very beat up team defensively as they are expected to go to their 6th different starting LB unit & their secondary also has issues. Westbrook is expected to miss the next 3 games due to a concussion & his career could be over. This game is going to come down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes & both defenses will be under a lot of pressure here.

FORECAST: Eagles 24 Bears 21