Every week this season I posted my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

The Regular season finished up with the Top 25 Forecasts going 212-62 77.4% picking the winners of each game.That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. I also listed some Upset Specials, which pulled the upset 17 out of 36 times this season. Combined the regular season record is 229- 81 73.9%!!

This week there are no games involving Top 25 teams so  similar to the last two weeks, I will include my forecasts for the FCS/Division IAA Playoffs as well as the Army/Navy game.

ARMY VS NAVY

Philadelphia. The 110th meeting between these rivals. Navy leads the series 53-49-7 and have won a series record 7 straight by a combined 274-71. Navy looks to win the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for a record 7th straight time as they have won a record 14 straight service academy games. Those number include a 16-13 OT win over an Air Force team which beat Army 35-7 this year. While Navy already has their bid to the Texas Bowl on Dec 31st, Army is playing for their first bowl bid since 1996 and with a win here will play in the EagleBank Bowl on Dec 29th. Navy has the offensive (#91-119) and defensive (#70-85) edges but is allowing 4.2 yards per carry rushing while Army is allowing 3.9. Navy had a bye week after a long trip to Hawaii against another team that needed to win to keep their bowl hopes alive. Navy was outgained 428-336 and was tied 17-17 at the half but they allowed Hawaii a 3^rd quarter TD, which was the only 2^nd half scoring. Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who is playing with a knee injury that will require surgery after the season, is averaging 76.4 yards per game (52.4%) with a 4-2 ratio and leads Navy with 924 yards (3.7 ypc) rushing and an NCAA QB record tying 23 rush TD. Fullback Vince Murray is the #2 rusher with 884 yards (5.6 ypc) and slot back Marcus Curry is #3 with 442 yards (6.9 ypc). The Hawaii game was the first time since the SMU game on Oct 17th that all 3 of Navy’s top rushers all played. Army has had 3 weeks to prepare for Navy after their come-from-behind win over North Texas scoring a TD with 1:43 left to win 17-13, despite being outgained 447-287. Army’s true freshman quarterback Trent Steelman is averaging 50.9 yards per game (52.2%) with a 3-1 ratio and leads with 690 rush yards (3.6 ypc). The #2 rusher is slot back Patrick Mealy with 625 yards (6.4 ypc) and the #3 is fullback Kingsley Ehie with 445 yards (4.2 ypc). Army’s 7 game drought was under 4 different head coaches and head coach Rich Ellerson will try to avoid becoming the 5th.

PHIL’S FORECAST: † Navy 23 Army 13

FCS/Div IAA Football Championship – Semifinals

APPALACHIAN ST VS #1 MONTANA

These teams have met just once, in the 2000 semifinals, when Montana won 19-16 at home. Appalachian St’s reward for beating #4 seed and reigning Champ Richmond is a 2250+ mile trip to Montana. Appalachian St had a 444-347 yard edge but trailed 24-14 in the 4^th quarter. ASU scored 2 unanswered TD’s for a 28-24 lead and forced a Richmond punt, but ASU’s punt returner had the ball literally taken out of his hands and returned for a TD with 3:26 left to put Richmond back into the lead 31-28. Then senior quarterback Armanti Edwards did what he has done for 4 years, drive 70 yards for the game-winning TD with :10 left. Montana, after an amazing 1st round win over South Dakota St in which they came back from 27 points down with 41 unanswered had an easy 51-0 win over Stephen F. Austin. They had 22-12 first down and 474-280 yard edges but the main reason for the blowout was a 10-1 turnover edge including one as Stephen F. Austin’s wide receiver fumbled at the Montana 2 yard line when he was about to score. Montana is trying to make their 2nd straight championship game and 7th overall. While Appalachian St is trying make their 4th overall, all in the last 5 years. ASU’s win at Richmond was their 1st road playoff win since 2000 but Montana has won 16 straight at home. However, their last loss here was in the 2007 playoffs to Wofford. Look for Edwards to pull it out one more time.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  Appalachian St 35 MONTANA 34

WILLIAM & MARY VS #2 VILLANOVA

William & Mary leads the series 14-12-1 but has lost the last 5 including a 28-17 loss this year despite 27-15 first down and 472-283 yard edges (1 TD in 5 redzone trips).  William & Mary is trying to become the 3rd straight team that finished #3 in the CAA South to make the championship game. If they do it will be because of a defense that has allowed just 3 points in their 2 playoff games. William & Mary gave head coachJimmye Laycock his 200th win in its 1st playoff road win ever, handing #3 seed Southern Illinois their only FCS loss this year.  William & Mary was outgained 102-2 in the 1^st quarter and trailed 3-0 but scored 24 unanswered and ended with 22-11 first down & 373-187 yard edges. They held Southern Illinois’s  running back  Karim, who came in averaging 139 yards per game rushing to just 27 yards. Villanova repaid New Hampshire for an earlier loss this year with a 46-7 win in the snow. They got a fumble return TD on New Hampshire’s 1st play from scrimmage and never looked back as they had a 387-84 yard edge including 343-(-66) rush edge. They say defense wins championships and I will call for William & Mary to be the 2nd CAA team to repay an earlier loss.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  William & Mary 21 VILLANOVA 20

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