A quick note – While originally I said that I would post the bowl forecasts the day before the game, we have been SWAMPED with Bowl Confidence Contest entries (are you entered yet? CLICK HERE for details and make sure you enter to win the cash prizes). Look for my forecast for the New Orleans Bowl to go up Sunday morning and also check out Monday’s blog when the Bowl Confidence Contest leader board will be updated!

Here are my selections for this week’s NFL action:

Dallas at New Orleans

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
DALLAS	96	268	18	2	#7
NEW ORLEANS	109	368	30	2	#26

The Cowboys are hanging onto the #6 seed in the NFC by a fingernail and their December problems are well known (19-33 since 1997). The Saints are going for 16-0 and barring any injuries which will put Payton in rest mode I think they get it. Romo has played well the past 2 games with 321 (71%) with 5 TD’s and hasn’t thrown an interception since the Redskins game. He’ll face a Saints crowd that will be very loud after “preparing” all day for the game but NO is very thin at CB. DeMarcus Ware is a gametime decision but this should be a very entertaining game for the lucky few that have access to the NFL Network.

FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 31 Dallas 24

Cincinnati at San Diego

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Spec Tms
CINCINNATI	109	160	14	2	#21
SAN DIEGO	85	258	27	2	#17

This is a tough game to review as the Bengals have a lot on their plate with the unfortunate death of Chris Henry and their emotional state is unknown. CIN only has 5 TD’s in their last 63 drives and they haven’t been able to push the ball downfield since Henry had landed on IR. They get a Chargers team that is 16-0 in December who with a win would take the #2 seed in the AFC. Over the last 4 weeks SD has been playing at a high level with the #7 and #9 units (+6 TO’s) vs CIN’s #23 and #4 units (-2 TO’s). SD is a bit suspect in stopping the run (#21 117 ypg 4.3) which plays to the Bengals strength right now (#6 133 ypg, 4.0). I think CIN will come out strong to start the game but the fact they are without their best run stuffer (DT Peko) will let the SD OL control the game and protect Rivers who continues to impress.

FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 34 Cincinnati 17

Minnesota at Carolina

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Spec Tms
MINNESOTA	124	218	24	2	#11
CAROLINA	133	180	15	2	#32

This is the 4th meeting in 5 years with a 3-0 record by the home team. MIN got back into the win column last week beating the Bengals as they recommitted to the run with 37 attempts. Even with the Arizona loss the Vikings have a great statistical edge with the #3 and #2 units (+3 TO’s) vs the Panthers #25 and #22 units (+4 TO’s) over the last 4 weeks. The play style of the Panthers #4 rush attack plays into the hands of Minnesota’s #4 rush defense as they lack the QB or WR’s in the passing game to threaten here. MIN also has a great matchup edge vs CAR’s OL that is minus both starting OT’s with Geoff Schwartz a 2nd year 7th RD DC getting his 1st start here at RT. This will be the Panthers playoff game here and the players will do whatever they can for Fox. MIN learned its lessen by thinking they could just walk into Arizona a few weeks ago and will not make that mistake again.

FORECAST: Minnesota 28 CAROLINA 10

Atlanta at NY Jets

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Spec Tms
ATLANTA	75	139	15	2	#8
NY JETS	168	215	25	2	#25

Both teams could get their young QB’s back here as both Sanchez and Ryan practiced this week. Weather is expected to be a factor here with 20 mph winds and it may be snowy. This will be Sanchez’s 1st NFL game in below 40˚ weather and he’s going to have braces on both knees which will limit his mobility. I fully expect Rex Ryan to keep him on a short leash and just feed the ball to Thomas Jones who heads up the #1 rush offense (4.6 ypc). The Jets have allowed just 497 yds and 22 total points the last 3 weeks and are 1st in forcing 3 and outs (52) this year. I really like the matchup of CB Darrelle Revis vs Roddy White here and the Falcons are in for a tough time in their 1st road game in almost a month.

FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Atlanta 10

Tampa Bay at Seattle

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
TAMPA BAY	100	193	15	2	#1
SEATTLE	129	213	22	1	#18

Both teams were humiliated last week getting beat by a combined 60-10. Mora openly challenged his teams toughness especially on the OL who despite the same starting 5 have allowed 15 sacks the last 5 weeks. Morris admitted the Jets “flat out beat our butts” and Freeman who had 3 interceptions last week was confused all day. I think Morris is way over his head as a HC and now has to take a very young team with nothing to play for all the way up to the Pacific Northwest. Its supposed to rain all game and #2 WR Mark Clayton and TE Kellen Winslow are expected to miss here. SEA is allowing 117 total yards, 61 rushing yards and 16 pts less per game at home than on the road this year. SEA’s DC Casey Bradley was TB’s LB coach the last 2 years and was highly recommended to SEA by Monte Kiffin and Aaron Curry will play here. Look for SEA’s 12th Man to be very loud here with Ken Griffey Jr is raising the flag here.

FORECAST: SEATTLE 23 Tampa Bay 7

Green Bay at Pittsburgh

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
GREEN BAY	120	230	25	1	#31
PITTSBURGH	120	203	20	2	#28

The Packers have won 5 straight and coincidentally Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 265 ypg (69%) with a 9-2 ratio behind an OL that has had the same starting 5 in the span. PIT has lost 5 straight and while Bruce Arians has come under blistering fire for having abandoned the run game the Steelers have a 136-166 run/pass ratio in the span. PIT’s issues lie in the fact they have a very average group of CB’s that aren’t that effective without Polamalu to help out and the pass rush misses DE Aaron Smith. I fully expect the Steelers to put forth an intense effort here and go to the run but GB is allowing 72 ypg (3.4) over their last 10 games. I project GB to take the #5 seed and they simply have better matchups right now than the Steelers do.

FORECAST: Green Bay 27 PITTSBURGH 21

Miami at Tennessee

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
MIAMI	127	183	19	2	#6
TENNESSEE	153	230	27	2	#23

With the Jaguars loss this is a playoff game for both teams. I am impressed with Chad Henne who has won 4 of his last 5 starts being sacked 4 times after being sacked 16 times in his 1st 5 starts. I also like how the Dolphins have modified their offense going away from the Wildcat due to fit Henne’s strengths. TEN expects to have Vince Young here after he left last week with a strained right hamstring. TEN comes in playing at a higher level the last 4 weeks with the #2 7 #7 units (+1 TO’s) vs MIA with the #13 and #18 units (-4 TO’s). The key to this game will be if the Dolphins can contain Chris Johnson who has a very realistic chance of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. I lean with the Titans here due to their home field advantage as MIA has been very lucky with their wins vs the Jets, Bucs, Patriots and Jags.

FORECAST: TENNESSEE 20 Miami 17

New England at Buffalo

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
NEW ENGLAND	164	238	22	2	#24
BUFFALO	106	205	13	2	#4

The Patriots have won 12 straight in the series and are one game behind the Colts domination over the Texans. Buffalo put a lot into the season opener and played a perfect game despite being outgained 441-276. They would have won if not for a fumble on a KR at the end of the game that NE recovered to set up the game winning TD. NE has been playing it close to the vest this week as despite beating CAR 20-10 last week, Randy Moss has been taking a beating by the media. Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week but looking at KC’s #30 and #30 units (0 TO’s) on the year I’m not very impressed with the quality of victory. Weather could be a factor here but I trust Brady over Fitzpatrick who has passed for 184 total yards with a 4.28 ypa the last 2 weeks.

FORECAST: New England 20 BUFFALO 13

Arizona at Detroit

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
ARIZONA	127	303	34	2	#2
DETROIT	100	260	13	2	#29

A week after beating up on the Vikings on Sunday Night the Cardinals were beat up by the 49ers on Monday Night turning the ball over 7 times. Injuries have taken their toll on a Detroit roster that didn’t have a lot of talent to begin with. Schwartz was livid with how his team gave up 308 yds (7.7) rushing last week. He has admitted that his pass defense has been bad (10 new CB’s have played since 9/4) he thought the run defense was something to build on. Detroit lost Kevin Smith (ACL) who was just getting back into the groove after a shoulder injury last week and I have no confidence in Culpepper who is 0-9 as a starter for Detroit. I believe Arizona has a huge “get right win” here and Warner posts his 8th game of 100+ QBR vs a defense that has already given up 9 this year.

FORECASTS: Arizona 34 DETROIT 13

San Francisco at Philadelphia

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
SAN FRANCISCO	58	223	16	2	#10
PHILADELPHIA	110	285	29	1	#27

I was impressed with the 49ers win on Monday Night as Singletary is developing a strong reputation for having his team rise up vs better talented foes. I noted prior to the SEA/SF game that it wouldn’t be long before Gore (167 yds, 6.7) tore thru a defense once teams started backing the extra safety out with the 49ers spread offense taking hold. PHI is going to have a day and a half of extra rest over SF who has to fly cross country and play in a 10 AM Pacific game in poor weather conditions. PHI controls its own fate atop the NFC East and McNabb has been solid at home passing for 248 ypg (64%) with an 8-3 ratio. SF is allowing 275 ypg (64%) with a 10-3 ratio on the road this year and this is the farthest East they have traveled in over a year. The Eagles have too many edges here to ignore and should be able to contain Gore.

FORECASTS: PHILADELPHIA 28 San Francisco 17

Chicago at Baltimore

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
CHICAGO	110	119	8	2	#12
BALTIMORE	190	213	25	2	#5

The Ravens rolled the Lions last week 48-3 as they put the ball in Ray Rice’s hands and outrushed them 308 (7.7) to 103 (2.2). Harbaugh has pretty much let it be known that he is sticking to the run game the rest of the way and they get a good matchup here. CHI is already looking forward to 2010 as the players have openly wondered who on the coaching staff will return. CHI is allowing 122 ypg (4.1) on the road this year and their aging OL doesn’t matchup well vs the Ravens front 7. Cutler has an 8-17 ratio on the road and isn’t expected to have Devin Hester (calf strain) here. Baltimore is 5-0 vs that currently have a losing record while CHI is 1-7. Weather could be a factor here but I like the Ravens who control their own playoff destiny with the Jags loss to the Colts as they are the more physical team.

FORECAST: BALTIMORE 28 Chicago 13

Cleveland at Kansas City

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
CLEVELAND	161	155	20	2	#3
KANSAS CITY	121	203	15	4	#9

This will be the 1st game blacked out in the KC area in 156 games which is no surprise as its between the only 2 teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs in the AFC. The Browns come in with extra rest after a very impressive win vs PIT last Thursday. Cleveland blitzed from every angle they could and I really liked how their defenders held up against Holmes/Ward/Miller though the weather did help out. While I’m not sold on Brady Quinn yet, he hasn’t thrown an Int in 4 games and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had another good game vs the #24 pass defense (22-9 ratio). The Chiefs self-destructed again last week vs Buffalo as Cassel had 4 interceptions and they have given up 400 yds in 9 games this year. This is one of the few times this year Cleveland has the talent edge in the trenches even with their injuries on defense and they get a 2nd straight win as they wait for Mike Holmgren to decide if he wants to be their new GM.

FORECASTS: Cleveland 24 KANSAS CITY 23

Houston at St Louis

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
HOUSTON	108	253	29	2	#14
ST LOUIS	126	188	11	2	#13

This could be the biggest blowout of the week. The Texans ship righted itself last week vs SEA as Schaub put up 365 yds (74%) with a 2-1 ratio and tied their season high of 34 pts. St Louis came into last week’s game without their best defensive player in FS Otogwe (shoulder) and were forced to start rookie 6th RD DC Keith Null from West Texas A&M. St Louis was “only” outgained 446-240 as Null threw 5 interceptions which gave TEN 3 drives in St Louis territory. Things have gone from bad to worse for the Rams for this game. They’ll be without both starting OG’s from last week with Jacob Bell landing on IR and Spags rightly taking a stand and cutting Richie Incognito after he had 2 personal foul penalties in the 1Q. Spags had to cancel Thursday’s practice due to the H1N1 virus and Null could make his 2nd start this week as Kyle Boller (thigh bruise) was thought to have come down with it. The Rams don’t have the skill players to match up with the Texans who pull to .500 here.

FORECASTS: Houston 44 ST LOUIS 13

Oakland at Denver

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
OAKLAND	107	84	12	2	#22
DENVER	177	223	25	2	#16

Its safe to say that JaMarcus Russell’s days are over here after he led an uninspiring effort with 74 yds on 16 attempts last week and was sacked 6 times coming off the bench. I think Tom Cable’s job is safe here as he is being allowed to start Charlie Frye who ran the scout team all year for the Raiders. Frye started 1 game for SEA last year and cobbled together 83 yds (52%) with a 2-2 ratio with a very depleted offense. DEN played a good game vs Indy last week forcing 3 interceptions off Manning and own the #5 seed. DEN is very thin at safety here but OAK could be without TE Zach Miller (50 rec, 13.1) who would be a Pro Bowler on a better team and inconsistent deep threat Heyward-Bey (9 rec, 13.8) here. The benching of Russell tells me that OAK is serious about winning and OAK’s defense should keep this fairly close.

FORECASTS: DENVER 17 Oakland 10

NY Giants at Washington

	Rushing	Passing	Pts	TO	Tms
NY GIANTS	98	263	24	2	#15
WASHINGTON	87	245	30	2	#19

Normally a 4-9 team wouldn’t generate any interest especially for a Monday Night game. The Redskins are arguably the most important team in the NFC right now though as they will determine the fate of the Giants and Cowboys and possibly the playoff seeding vs in the AFC with SD. WAS’s quick move to hire Bruce Allen as their GM was a surprise and one of the worst secrets in the NFL is that Mike Shanahan is coming in to take over. The Giants are off a tough loss to PHI on Sunday Night where Manning had a great game with 391 yds (71%) and 3 TD’s but it was wasted by a defense that has seemingly lost its toughness.

FORECASTS: NY Giants 23 WASHINGTON 20