Here are my selections for this week’s NFL Action:

Seattle at Green Bay

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
SEATTLE	89	213	16	3	#18
GREEN BAY	147	310	35	0	#3

Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams. In their last meeting Green Bay went into Seattle and beat them 27-17. Green Bay had a 313-177 yard edge vs a very depleted Seattle team that started its #3 quarterback due to injuries. Seattle had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4^th quarter. Green Bay QB Rodgers had 208 yards (70%) with 2 TD’s. Green Bay’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 yards per game (3.9 ypc) at home this year vs weak Seattle rush attack. Rodgers has averaged 269 yards per game (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home this year and has only been sacked 6 times in the last four games prior to Pittsburgh. Seattle’s #16 pass rush has been balanced this year pulling in 12 sacks on the road but are allowing 290 yards per game (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. Seattle has been outgained by 138 yards per game in the 4 games prior to Tampa Bay as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the offensive line. Green Bay has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to Arizona on deck & Seattle simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win this year being vs a St Louis team that started Boller.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 Seattle 10

Houston at Miami

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
HOUSTON	52	323	20	2	#14
MIAMI	145	228	24	2	#7

This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & last year Houston beat the Dolphins 29-28 at home. Houston did overcame 4 turnovers in the game with a 485-370 yard edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. Houston rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat Seattle 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning 5 of 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 28 MIAMI 24

Buffalo at Atlanta

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
BUFFALO	99	173	12	1	#4
ATLANTA	150	178	18	2	#8

This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road game vs Tampa Bay on deck. Matt Ryan will get the start despite battling a turf toe injury the past few weeks and he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & TE Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted Buffalo LB unit. Atlanta has a poor pass defense/pass rush that could struggle vs Buffalo WR’s. Atlanta head coach Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off back to back home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philadelphia & New Orleans games. The Falcons have played well at home this year and a big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is averaging just 265 yards per game on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs New England & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. Buffalo’s rush defense has surrendered 190 yards per game & 5.2 yards per carry the last 11 games as Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 Buffalo 10

Oakland at Cleveland

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
OAKLAND	148	185	18	1	#20
CLEVELAND	178	143	20	2	#2

This is the 5th meeting in 7 years with the Raiders going 3-1. This however will be the 1st cold weather meeting in the series. Oakland will start QB Charlie Fry who was the QB of the Browns a few years ago while the Browns will start Derek Anderson who replaces the injured Quinn. The Browns deserve credit for a huge Thursday Night win in their last home game as they played without 6 defensive starters and held Pittsburgh to 216 yards and just 3 of 14 on 3rd downs. The difference is that this team now is expected to win this game and have won their last two games. This game will be very close with both backup QB’s playing.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND by 1

Kansas City at Cincinnati

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
KANSAS CITY	76	163	13	2	#15
CINCINNATI	211	210	31	2	#22

Cincinnati beat Kansas City 17-7 last year as the Chiefs with a very young & beat up roster already had the cars packed & ready to go into the offseason. Cincy had a 13-0 lead, 17-2 first down & 239-50 yard edges with a beat up offense at the end of the 1^st half. Cincinnati then played ball control in the 2^nd half & the Chiefs scored on a 91 yd/11play drive on their final possession in garbage time. The Bengals have a massive edge with their #6 run game vs the Chiefs #28 run defense that has allowed 148 yards per game (4.5 ypc). Kansas City has a road game vs Denver on deck while Cincinnati finds itself in a potentially meaningful game next week vs the Jets to find out if they are the #3 or #4 seed. The Bengals have topped 23 points only once in 13 games but their defense is one of the best.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI by 7

Carolina at NY Giants

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
CAROLINA	128	195	24	1	#32
NY GIANTS	121	210	21	3	#17

Last year at this time the talk was about how the Panthers & Giants were competing for the #1 seed in the NFC. Now the Panthers are out of the playoffs due to injuries, poor QB play & a lack of depth & talent in the receiving game. The Giants need to win their final two games and will need Dallas and Philadelphia to lose. Last year the Giants powered their way to a 34-28 win in a game with 40 mph winds. The Giants had a 459-343 yard edge as they put on a rushing clinic with 301 yards (7.3 ypc) vs 158 (4.5 ypc) on the ground. Carolina HC Fox insists his players finish the season properly but the Giants fighting for their playoff lives get the close win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS by 1

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
TAMPA BAY	95	180	14	3	#1
NEW ORLEANS	141	295	31	2	#26

Earlier this season New Orleans was +4 in turnovers which led to a 38-7 Saints win as they finished with a 370-219 yard edge. Tampa is clearly looking ahead to next season going with rookie Freeman at QB while also making a Defensive Coordinator change and Head Coach Morris taking over those duties. Freeman will now be making his 7th start but despite allowing him to throw more he’s struggled reading defense and is completing just 52% in the 1^st half of games completing many throws late with teams in prevent. The QB problems have directly correlated to the scoreboard as they averaged just 8 points per game the last four weeks. With New Orleans off of the Dallas loss and having a road game at Carolina on deck (lost both to Panthers last year) this should be closer than the first meeting but the Saints will still win comfortably as they lock up home field advantage.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS by 17

Jacksonville at New England

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
JACKSONVILLE	94	203	13	2	#21
NEW ENGLAND	125	293	28	1	#27

Including the playoffs this is the 5th meeting in 7 years with New England being 4-0 in the series. Brady has edge with Moss/Welker vs a poor Jags pass defense but Jags have edge with Jones-Drew vs Patriots rush defense. What has always been perceived as the “model franchise” the Patriots are now having to deal with internal strife and player dissension. Winning used to soften those issues but after dropping back to back games to New Orleans & Miami they did rebound vs Carolina and Buffalo but still do not have anything locked up. Jacksonville already failed one test as at home vs the Dolphins and they not only lost but were outgained 354-217 and outfirstdowne’d 22-10. New England meanwhile has beaten just one team (NY Jets) by over 10 points in the last 6 games in the 5 close games they’ve only outgained their opponents by 32 yards per game so this game could be closer than expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND by 10

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
BALTIMORE	105	208	26	1	#6
PITTSBURGH	101	177	18	2	#30

The Steelers got a last second win last week and are still fighting for their playoff lives. Baltimore is off back to back home wins but taking to the division road is another matter. If you look at the Ravens other 2 division road games this year they gained only 274 yards & 14 FD’s in Cleveland while gaining 215 yards & 16 FD’s in Cincinnati. I’ll call for the Steelers by a field goal as they keep their playoff hope alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH by 3

Denver at Philadelphia

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
DENVER	96	198	17	2	#12
PHILADELPHIA	143	214	31	2	#25

Denver had a 2 game win streak snapped at Indianapolis but they did battle finishing with a 357-312 yard edge two weeks ago. They now travel for a 3rd time in 4 weeks and this game is sandwiched between a pair of division home games. Meanwhile Philadelphia can wrap up the division by winning their remaining two games. However, The Eagles are a team which haven’t been able to gel with major injuries on the offensive side of the ball and do have Dallas on deck. Denver continues to play hard for their fiery HC McDaniels and has outgained opponents by 45 yards per game on the road. Pressure in December come playoff time makes teams play more conservatively and I’ll call for Denver QB Orton who has done what has been asked by throwing no interceptions in 7 games and throwing over 1 interception just once this year to be able to keep it within a TD.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA by 7

St Louis at Arizona

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
ST LOUIS	123	160	10	2	#9
ARIZONA	137	260	27	2	#3

The Cardinals keep appearing as the team no one wants to face as their defense continues to improve especially in stopping the run. The Cardinals are off a 2 game road trip and have wrapped up the division but WR Fitzgerald has vowed that they would be more focused than last year where the Cardinals lost to Minnesota & New England by a combined 82-21 in weeks 15 & 16. St Louis was mauled two weeks ago at Tennessee losing 47-7 and have lost 6 straight. The Rams went to Keith Null at QB and may be looking at him here to see if he is a potential backup QB. That would spell trouble against a Cardinals defense that has had at least 3 sacks in 5 straight games & has had 4 or more sacks in 6 games this year. In the last four games the Cardinals have had 100+ yard rushing they are averaging 436 yards per game and they will be able to run over a Rams defense that has allowed 161 yards per game the last 8 weeks. Earlier this year Arizona finished with a 444-314 yard edge against the Rams and get the big win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA by 17

Detroit at San Francisco

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
DETROIT	86	173	11	2	#29
SAN FRANCISCO	139	263	30	2	#13

Detroit were outgained 548-229 against the Ravens two weeks as The Lions lost RB Smith to a knee injury vs and when a losing team that already is without their starting QB sees its top offensive rushing weapon lost for the year it is tough to play motivated football. San Francisco is off a tough 3 game stretch having hosted Arizona and Minnesota then traveling to Philly last week. They are however in their home finale and with Singletary roaming the sidelines the only way for them to finish would be with a win. The first step is to learn to win which they did last year and this season they’ve also become accustomed to winning at home with big wins of 23-10, 35-0 & 20-3. The 49ers should win comfortably here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO by 14

NY Jets at Indianapolis

TEAM	RUSHING	PASSING	POINTS	TO’S	ST
NY JETS	143	175	16	2	#24
INDIANAPOLIS	69	202	27	2	#2

Congrats to the Colts as they now hold the record for consecutive wins. HC Caldwell has said the Colts will go for the 16-0 record but will start sitting players if injuries do occur. The Jets were on a 3 game win streak before the disappointing loss to Atlanta last week at home. The Jets defense has stepped up the blitzing & in an impressive 3 game stretch they held Carolina, Buffalo & Tampa Bay to 8 points per game, 9 FD/game & only 165 yards per game. It doesn’t matter who is playing QB with that type of defensive production. RB Thomas Jones continues to gel with his OL and over the last 8 games he’s averaging 112 yards per game & 4.7 yards per carry getting at least 21 carries in every game. Solid defense & a power rush attack will keep you in every game especially in December but the Colts keep the undefeated season alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS by 1