First I want to wish everyone a Happy and Safe New Year! I also would like to thank everyone who has been using and reading PhilSteele.com this year. Your support and comments have helped us improve the site tenfold the past couple of years and with your help we will make PhilSteele.com even better in the upcoming year!

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

Outback Bowl

Northwestern vs Auburn

Team	Rush	Pass	Points	TO’s	ST
Northwestern	102	240	20	1.6	–
Auburn	218	235	36	2.8	–

Gametime Projected Weather: 63° Light Rain Wind: WNW 20 mph

It will be rainy and Auburn does have some depth problems on defense. Northwestern is a constant overachiever under Fitzgerald as the Wildcats have 8 upsets in 13 roles as an underdog. Northwestern QB Mike Kafka is underrated at QB and the Wildcats will take it down to the final gun.

PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 28 NORTHWESTERN 25

Gator Bowl

Florida St vs West Virginia

Team	Rush	Pass	Points	TO’s	ST
Florida St	137	305	29	3.1	•
West Virginia	223	185	27	2.3	–

Gametime Projected Weather: 50° Few Showers early then Partly Cloudy Wind: NNW 15 mph

On paper West Virginia should win by 14 as they have the much better defense (#26-79). However Florida St QB EJ Manuel is healthier and expect the Seminoles to be motivated to send out coach Bobby Bowden on a winning note like Wisconsin did for Barry Alavarez and Alabama for Bear Bryant. I’ll call for the Seminoles to play their best game of the year and rise up and knock off the Moutaineers.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 35 WEST VIRGINIA 28

Capital One Bowl

LSU vs Penn St

Team	Rush	Pass	Points	TO’s	ST
LSU	82	170	15	1.6	•••••
Penn St	143	215	18	1.4	–

Gametime Projected Weather: 64° Thunderstorms early then Cloudy Wind: WNW 9 mph

LSU has actually been outgained by 17 ypg this season and the Tigers are in the bottom of the NCAA in total offense despite their 9-3 record. The Tigers do have a big special teams edge but Penn St has the edges where it counts on offense (#26-57) and defense (#8-12). Nittany Lion LB’s Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee are both healthy which hasn’t been the case for most of the season. Paterno knows a thing or two on how win bowl games with a 23-11-1 record as I’ll call for the Nittany Lions to win by 10.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 24 LSU 14

Rose Bowl

Oregon vs Ohio St

Team	Rush	Pass	Points	TO’s	ST
Oregon	157	170	26	2.8	•
Ohio St	178	150	25	1.7	–

Gametime Projected Weather: 70° Mostly Cloudy Wind: NW 4 mph

Ohio St has an excellent athletic defense and they did have time to prepare for Oregon’s spread offense. The Ducks have not been great away from Autzen this season and have actually been outgained 382-380 on average. Ohio St is thrilled to be playing in the Rose Bowl and are motivated to end their 3 game bowl losing streak. The Buckeyes will embrace the underdog role and pull the upset here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 31 OREGON 24

Sugar Bowl

Cincinnati vs Florida

Team	Rush	Pass	Points	TO’s	ST
Cincinnati	79	240	23	2	–
Florida	221	235	33	1.3	–

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in the Super Dome.

First Brian Kelly left and then interim coach Jeff Quinn took the head job at Buffalo but the Cincinnati players are well motivated to have a good showing here. Florida is clearly the more talented team and will give an all out effort similar to the Florida St game which was Tebow’s final home game. Urban Meyer’s situation made this game a little tougher to look at with him first resigning then deciding to take just a leave of absence after the bowl. Bottom line is both teams are motivated but expect the Gators to come out with a win in Tebow’s final game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 40 CINCINNATI 20

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS ConFerence Records
	OVERALL			vs BCS CONF
	W	L	%	W	L	%
MWC	4	0	100%	2	0	100%
BIG EAST	2	0	100%	1	0	100%
INDEP	1	0	100%	1	0	100%
SUN BELT	1	0	100%	0	0	0
BIG 12	3	2	60%	3	1	75%
BIG 10	1	1	50%	1	1	50%
WAC	1	1	50%	0	0	0
ACC	2	3	40%	2	3	40%
C USA	2	3	40%	0	1	0%
SEC	1	2	33%	1	2	33%
PAC 10	2	4	33%	1	2	33%
MAC	0	3	0%	0	1	0%

The MWC picked up another win yesterday with Air Force beating Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl. TCU is the only MWC team yet to play and if they can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl the conference will finish the postseason a perfect 5-0! The Big East is 2-0 so far but that record will be tested today as Cincinnati plays heavily favored Florida in the Sugar Bowl and West Virginia plays Florida St in the Gator Bowl in Bobby Bowden’s last game as coach. Missouri was disappointing in the loss to Navy yesterday but the Big 12 won their other two bowl games with Oklahoma beating Stanford and Iowa St upsetting Minnesota.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

After 20 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the ninth day in a row with 315 points won and a 69% win %. Ben Brin had a great day yesterday and moved up to 2nd with 283 points while Michael Mancini is in 3rd with 281 points. Don Seebold is 1st in win % with 79%.

I now have 179 points and there are still 14 bowl games left including 10 in the next two days! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank	Name	Pts Won	Pts Lost	Win %	% Rank
1	William J Meleski	315	139	69%	23
2	Ben Brin	283	124	70%	21
3	Michael Mancini	281	175	62%	85
4	Gary Cotton	278	121	70%	19
5	Richie Thomas	275	126	69%	25
6	Lyell Marks	272	218	56%	236
7	Patrick Hilt	270	91	75%	4
8	Jason Bellinger	267	106	72%	11
8	Pete Mackin	267	157	63%	66
10	Don Seebold	266	70	79%	1
10	Mitchell Sanpei	266	150	64%	57
12	Jerry Applegate	256	108	70%	15
13	John Roberts	255	108	70%	16
14	Marc Ostrom	251	101	71%	12
14	Sherry Shoup	251	233	52%	407
14	Bruce Drennan	251	239	51%	451
17	Gary Grodin	250	140	64%	54
18	Bobby Welles	247	84	75%	5
18	Tony Orioli	247	148	63%	71
18	Goran Mili	247	173	59%	141
21	Marsha Realgood	246	114	68%	26
22	Jeff Hamilton	245	68	78%	2
22	Rusty Moreno	245	118	67%	34
22	Dick Rosser	245	145	63%	68
25	Jeremy Zinn	244	136	64%	52
26	Adam Muscat	243	125	66%	43
26	David Fingado	243	150	62%	82
28	Steve MacDonald	242	81	75%	3
28	Gene Winters	242	214	53%	344
30	Dave Klaehn	241	196	55%	252
31	Chuck Kreiner	240	134	64%	53
32	Frances Ward	239	114	68%	31
32	Craig Zeroski	239	141	63%	67
34	Jerry Chieffalo	236	121	66%	42
35	Gary McQuain	235	85	73%	8
35	Nick McKloskey	235	152	61%	103
37	Matt Schupp	234	103	69%	22
37	Bob Siciliano	234	126	65%	48
39	Dan Maurer	233	83	74%	7
39	Rick Perk	233	112	68%	33
39	Scott Boyce	233	139	63%	70
39	Lance Ivy	233	190	55%	255
39	Carroll Bragg	233	240	49%	536
44	Jeremy Ackerman	232	115	67%	37
44	Joe Smatana	232	134	63%	60
44	Michael Ward	232	148	61%	96
44	James Bigley	232	175	57%	185
48	Mike Guzzo	229	100	70%	20
48	Carl Ciaramitaro	229	175	57%	195
50	Brian Dereng	228	147	61%	101
50	Andy Mickley	228	180	56%	220
50	Larry Goodwin	228	186	55%	256

The Top 50 in Win %

Name	Pts Won	Pts Lost	Win %	% Rank
Don Seebold	266	70	79%	1
Jeff Hamilton	245	68	78%	2
Steve MacDonald	242	81	75%	3
Patrick Hilt	270	91	75%	4
Bobby Welles	247	84	75%	5
Jim Martindale	185	64	74%	6
Dan Maurer	233	83	74%	7
Gary McQuain	235	85	73%	8
Donnie Holmann	213	79	73%	9
Anthony Marcello	204	79	72%	10
Jason Bellinger	267	106	72%	11
Marc Ostrom	251	101	71%	12
Gary Osborne	210	86	71%	13
Austin Huggins	205	84	71%	14
Jerry Applegate	256	108	70%	15
John Roberts	255	108	70%	16
Jeffrey Gans	179	77	70%	17
Jonathan Willard	151	65	70%	18
Gary Cotton	278	121	70%	19
Mike Guzzo	229	100	70%	20
Ben Brin	283	124	70%	21
Matt Schupp	234	103	69%	22
William J Meleski	315	139	69%	23
Mike Magee	214	98	69%	24
Richie Thomas	275	126	69%	25
Marsha Realgood	246	114	68%	26
Gregory Ewers	143	67	68%	27
Jason Fry	177	83	68%	28
Bernie Lin	226	107	68%	29
Richard Bidnick	223	106	68%	30
Frances Ward	239	114	68%	31
Bob Knight	215	103	68%	32
Rick Perk	233	112	68%	33
Rusty Moreno	245	118	67%	34
Rob Vanier	183	89	67%	35
Timothy Zelek	184	91	67%	36
Jeremy Ackerman	232	115	67%	37
Ray Wenrich	160	80	67%	38
Matthew Anderson	223	112	67%	39
Don Armstrong	222	113	66%	40
Mike Connors	227	116	66%	41
Jerry Chieffalo	236	121	66%	42
Adam Muscat	243	125	66%	43
Tom Guertin	139	72	66%	44
Jerry Holcombe	198	103	66%	45
Blake Ali	220	115	66%	46
Donald Huggins	181	97	65%	47
Bob Siciliano	234	126	65%	48
K. McAbier	205	111	65%	49
Jim Merriman	217	120	64%	50