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The BCS National Championship

January 7th, 2010 Leave a comment Go to comments

Each day during this past bowl season in my daily blog, I gave you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts included my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

With the bowl season finishing up tonight my bowl forecasts have gone 21-12 (63.6%) and 11-3 (78.6%) the last 14 games!

Make sure check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on the bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and box scores of the bowl games.

The BCS National Championship

Texas vs Alabama

Team Rush Pass Points TO’s ST
Texas 70 235 26 2.3 ••
Alabama 145 155 22 2.2 –

Gametime Projected Weather: 62° Clear Wind: WSW 2 mph

This figures to be a tight low scoring contest.  Colt McCoy has faced 2 top defenses this year and struggled in each game. Against Oklahoma he was 21 of 39 (54%) for just 127 yards with a 1-1 ratio.  Then in the Big 12 Championship game against Nebraksa he was sacked 9 times and threw 3 interceptions. He will face an even tougher defense in this game as Alabama has my #1 defense. The Tide like to run the ball avg 216 rush ypg but will be facing the #1 rush defense as the Longhorns give up just 60 ypg (2.0 ypc). These two teams fully deserve to be here and they are clearly two of the best teams in the country.  It should be an excellent title game and I’ll call this to be a tight low scoring game decided by a late score.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 21 TEXAS 17

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS Conference Records
OVERALL vs BCS CONF
W L % W L %
MWC 4 1 80% 2 0 100%
BIG EAST 4 2 67% 2 2 50%
BIG 12 4 3 57% 4 2 67%
BIG 10 4 3 57% 4 3 57%
SEC 5 4 56% 4 4 50%
WAC 2 2 50% 0 0 0
SUN BELT 1 1 50% 0 0 0
ACC 3 4 43% 3 4 43%
C USA 2 4 33% 0 2 0%
PAC 10 2 5 29% 1 3 25%
MAC 1 4 20% 0 2 0%
INDEP 1 0 100% 1 0 100%

The MWC lost its first game of the bowl season on Monday in their most important bowl with Boise St beating TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. The Big East will finish the bowl season a respectable 4-2 but did get trounced in their BCS game. The Big 12 and SEC have had similar bowl seasons with the Big 12 having a slight advantage in win % and are 4-2 vs BCS conference teams. The National Title game tonight between Alabama (SEC) and Texas (Big 12) will decide which conference had the better post season. The Big 10 had their best bowl season in years winning four games over AP Top 15 teams capped off by last nights Iowa win over #9 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Coming into this season the Big 10 was just 9-20 in bowl games from 2005-08 including 1-6 last year. Finally the MAC saw its 14 game bowl losing streak snap last night with Central Michigan beating Troy 44-41 in 2OT in the GMAC Bowl.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Congratulations to Don Seebold who will win the 2010 Bowl Confidence Contest regardless of tonights National Title game!! Don needed Central Michigan to win last night and they came through in 2OT. Had Troy won Rusty Moreno would have led the contest going into the final game. It should be noted that Don has been so dominant in this contest that his most confident pick (Alabama 34) has not played yet!

If Alabama wins tonight Gary Osborne will finish in 2nd with 457 points and Rick Perk will finish in 3rd with 452 points. Even though Rick has Alabama for eight points, he should be rooting for the Longhorns because with a Texas win tonight Rick will finish in 2nd with 444 points. Rusty Moreno has the Longhorns for 1 point and will finish in 3rd if they win.

Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank Name Pts Won Pts Lost Win % % Rank Pts Left Max Score
1 Don Seebold 474 87 84% 1 34 508
2 Rick Perk 444 143 76% 3 8 452
3 Rusty Moreno 440 154 74% 5 1 441
4 Gary Osborne 434 138 76% 2 23 457
5 Clyde Rardin 425 165 72% 11 5 430
6 Marc Ostrom 423 165 72% 13 7 430
7 Donnie Holmann 419 156 73% 7 20 439
8 Patrick Hilt 417 145 74% 4 33 450
8 Donald Huggins 417 174 71% 20 4 421
10 Jeremy Ackerman 416 152 73% 6 27 443
10 Ben Brin 416 164 72% 16 15 431
10 Mike Bambrick 416 178 70% 23 1 417
13 Jerry Villela 413 167 71% 17 15 428
13 Kevin Demitt 413 181 70% 25 1 414
15 Jason Bellinger 412 159 72% 10 24 436
16 Gary Magnus 410 153 73% 8 32 442
17 Pat Fleming 409 181 69% 28 5 414
17 Dick Rosser 409 185 69% 36 1 410
17 Jeremy Zinn 409 185 69% 35 1 410
20 John Tsuji 408 153 73% 9 34 442
21 Lorin Dickinson 406 187 68% 38 2 408
22 Frances Ward 405 180 69% 30 10 415
23 Jim Martindale 404 157 72% 12 34 438
23 Bobby Welles 404 158 72% 14 33 437
23 Gary McQuain 404 158 72% 15 33 437
26 Courtney Moeller 403 191 68% 45 1 404
27 Joe Russo 401 178 69% 29 16 417
28 Austin Huggins 400 164 71% 18 31 431
28 Kristen Domonkos 400 168 70% 21 27 427
30 Chris Metz 399 190 68% 48 6 405
30 Al Nagy 399 191 68% 49 5 404
32 Mike Magee 398 175 69% 26 22 420
32 Jack Hawn 398 182 69% 37 15 413
32 Dean Duff 398 193 67% 50 4 402
35 Blake Ali 396 165 71% 19 34 430
35 Rob Vanier 396 178 69% 34 21 417
35 Robert Hood 396 188 68% 46 11 407
38 Tim Johnston 395 167 70% 22 33 428
38 Art Hartman 395 177 69% 33 23 418
38 NY Gator 395 182 68% 39 18 413
41 Troy Brown 394 192 67% 52 9 403
41 Sam Orha 394 197 67% 62 4 398
41 John Roberts 394 200 66% 67 1 395
44 Roy Hiyama 393 194 67% 60 8 401
44 Michael Mancini 393 201 66% 70 1 394
46 Jerry McHugh 392 182 68% 41 21 413
47 Bernie Lin 391 170 70% 24 34 425
47 Jeff Enzell 391 175 69% 32 29 420
47 Dan Dale 391 186 68% 47 18 409
50 Chris Haynes 390 180 68% 40 25 415
50 Mike Swerline 390 182 68% 42 23 413

The Top 50 in Win %

Name Pts Won Pts Lost Win % % Rank Pts Left Max Score
Don Seebold 474 87 84% 1 34 508
Gary Osborne 434 138 76% 2 23 457
Rick Perk 444 143 76% 3 8 452
Patrick Hilt 417 145 74% 4 33 450
Rusty Moreno 440 154 74% 5 1 441
Jeremy Ackerman 416 152 73% 6 27 443
Donnie Holmann 419 156 73% 7 20 439
Gary Magnus 410 153 73% 8 32 442
John Tsuji 408 153 73% 9 34 442
Jason Bellinger 412 159 72% 10 24 436
Clyde Rardin 425 165 72% 11 5 430
Jim Martindale 404 157 72% 12 34 438
Marc Ostrom 423 165 72% 13 7 430
Bobby Welles 404 158 72% 14 33 437
Gary McQuain 404 158 72% 15 33 437
Ben Brin 416 164 72% 16 15 431
Jerry Villela 413 167 71% 17 15 428
Austin Huggins 400 164 71% 18 31 431
Blake Ali 396 165 71% 19 34 430
Donald Huggins 417 174 71% 20 4 421
Kristen Domonkos 400 168 70% 21 27 427
Tim Johnston 395 167 70% 22 33 428
Mike Bambrick 416 178 70% 23 1 417
Bernie Lin 391 170 70% 24 34 425
Kevin Demitt 413 181 70% 25 1 414
Mike Magee 398 175 69% 26 22 420
Tom Guertin 389 172 69% 27 34 423
Pat Fleming 409 181 69% 28 5 414
Joe Russo 401 178 69% 29 16 417
Frances Ward 405 180 69% 30 10 415
Samuel Brown 388 173 69% 31 34 422
Jeff Enzell 391 175 69% 32 29 420
Art Hartman 395 177 69% 33 23 418
Rob Vanier 396 178 69% 34 21 417
Jeremy Zinn 409 185 69% 35 1 410
Dick Rosser 409 185 69% 36 1 410
Jack Hawn 398 182 69% 37 15 413
Lorin Dickinson 406 187 68% 38 2 408
NY Gator 395 182 68% 39 18 413
Chris Haynes 390 180 68% 40 25 415
Jerry McHugh 392 182 68% 41 21 413
Mike Swerline 390 182 68% 42 23 413
Don Armstrong 382 179 68% 43 34 416
Marsha Realgood 382 181 68% 44 32 414
Courtney Moeller 403 191 68% 45 1 404
Robert Hood 396 188 68% 46 11 407
Dan Dale 391 186 68% 47 18 409
Chris Metz 399 190 68% 48 6 405
Al Nagy 399 191 68% 49 5 404
Dean Duff 398 193 67% 50 4 402
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