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Most Improved Offensive Points 2009

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in offensive ppg heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Offensive Points 2009

Pre-Season Projection

Rank Team
1 Michigan
2 UCLA
3 Washington
4 SMU
5 Colorado
6 Notre Dame
7 Illinois
8 Arkansas
9 Hawaii
10 San Diego St
11 Texas A&M
12 Wyoming
13 Auburn
14 Miami, FL
15 Tulane
116 Ball St
117 Texas Tech
118 Oregon
119 Tulsa
120 Rice

Final Rankings

Rank Team 09 PPG 08 PPG Diff
1 Auburn 33.31 17.33 15.98
2 Arkansas 36 21.92 14.08
4 Washington 26.08 13.25 12.83
11 Michigan 29.5 20.25 9.25
14 SMU 29.23 21.33 7.9
15 Texas A&M 32.85 25 7.85
22 Wyoming 18.31 12.67 5.64
23 Notre Dame 30.08 24.69 5.39
35 UCLA 22 17.67 4.33
38 San Diego St 23.33 19.25 4.08
42 Miami, FL 30.31 27.08 3.23
50 Colorado 22.25 20.17 2.08
71 Tulane 16.08 16.67 -0.59
76 Hawaii 22.77 24.64 -1.87
91 Illinois 24.17 28.67 -4.5
96 Oregon 36.08 41.92 -5.84
101 Texas Tech 37 43.77 -6.77
117 Ball St. 19.17 34.93 -15.76
118 Tulsa 29.25 47.21 -17.96
120 Rice 18.25 41.31 -23.06

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 6 of the top 15 most improved teams (40%) and 12 of my projected top 15 improved their ppg in 2009 (80%)! Michigan who was my #1 Most Improved Team went from 20.25 ppg in ’08 to 29.5 ppg in ’09 (9.25)!

Washington who was my #3 team finally had QB Jake Locker healthy for the entire season and finished #4 with a 12.83 ppg improvement. Auburn and Arkansas who finished as the #1 and #2 most improved teams in ’09 both appeared in the top 15 in my preseason projection.

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in offensive ppg saw their ppg drop at least 5.84 ppg in 09! All 5 of the teams including Rose Bowl bound Oregon finished 96th or worse and 3 of the teams in my preseason bottom 5 actually finished in the bottom 5!

Coming into the season despite their 10-3 record in ’08 I thought Rice would struggle and have their 6th losing season in 8 years. I also projected the Owls to be the least improved team in the country in offensive points as they avg 41.31 ppg in ’08. In ’09 they struggled offensively and averaged only 18.25 ppg which was a 23.06 ppg decrease and ranked #120 exactly like I projected!

Overall 17 of the 20 teams (85%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ppg or lower ppg just as I projected!

Full List of Most Improved Offensive Points 2009

Rank Team 09 PPG 08PPG Diff
1 Auburn 33.31 17.33 15.98
2 Arkansas 36 21.92 14.08
3 Idaho 32.69 19.58 13.11
4 Washington 26.08 13.25 12.83
5 Cincinnati 38.62 25.86 12.76
6 Tennessee 29.31 17.33 11.98
7 Mississippi St. 25.58 15.25 10.33
8 Virginia Tech 31.85 22.07 9.78
9 UCF 26.15 16.58 9.57
10 Georgia Tech 33.79 24.38 9.41
11 Michigan 29.5 20.25 9.25
12 Stanford 35.46 26.25 9.21
13 Middle Tenn. 32 22.83 9.17
14 SMU 29.23 21.33 7.9
15 Texas A&M 32.85 25 7.85
16 Toledo 29.67 22.42 7.25
17 North Carolina St. 30.33 23.46 6.87
18 North Texas 26.58 20 6.58
19 Connecticut 31.15 24.92 6.23
20 Temple 29.54 23.42 6.12
21 Clemson 31.14 25.15 5.99
22 Wyoming 18.31 12.67 5.64
23 Notre Dame 30.08 24.69 5.39
24 Wake Forest 26.33 21 5.33
25 Duke 25.17 20.08 5.09
26 Utah St. 29.08 24 5.08
27 Pittsburgh 32.08 27.08 5
28 UAB 27.75 22.75 5
29 TCU 38.31 33.62 4.69
30 Michigan St. 29.69 25.08 4.61
31 Boise St. 42.21 37.62 4.59
32 Louisiana Tech 29.17 24.62 4.55
33 Northern Ill. 28.62 24.15 4.47
34 Central Mich. 33.93 29.54 4.39
35 UCLA 22 17.67 4.33
36 Wisconsin 31.77 27.46 4.31
37 Fresno St. 33.85 29.62 4.23
38 San Diego St. 23.33 19.25 4.08
39 East Carolina 27 23.43 3.57
40 Kentucky 26.08 22.62 3.46
41 Virginia 19.33 16.08 3.25
42 Miami, FL 30.31 27.08 3.23
43 Purdue 27.83 24.67 3.16
44 Syracuse 21.17 18.08 3.09
45 Indiana 23.5 20.5 3
46 Air Force 29.69 26.77 2.92
47 Western Kentucky 20.42 17.67 2.75
48 Florida Atlantic 27.42 25.08 2.34
49 Southern Miss. 32.92 30.62 2.3
50 Colorado 22.25 20.17 2.08
51 Alabama 32.07 30.14 1.93
52 La.-Monroe 25.58 23.67 1.91
53 West Virginia 26.15 24.54 1.61
54 Houston 42.21 40.62 1.59
55 Northwestern 25.92 24.38 1.54
56 Ohio St. 29 27.62 1.38
57 Marshall 21.77 20.5 1.27
58 BYU 35.46 34.23 1.23
59 Oregon St. 31.46 30.54 0.92
60 Troy 33.69 32.77 0.92
61 Navy 28 27.15 0.85
62 Bowling Green 28.46 27.67 0.79
63 Ohio 24.79 24.08 0.71
64 Nevada 38.23 37.62 0.61
65 Army 15.33 14.75 0.58
66 Boston College 24.77 24.71 0.06
67 Rutgers 28.85 29 -0.15
68 South Carolina 20.62 20.77 -0.15
69 Maryland 21.33 21.77 -0.44
70 Arizona St. 22.33 22.83 -0.5
71 Tulane 16.08 16.67 -0.59
72 Washington St. 12 12.69 -0.69
73 UNLV 24.83 25.58 -0.75
74 South Fla. 26.46 27.62 -1.16
75 FIU 22.92 24.67 -1.75
76 Hawaii 22.77 24.64 -1.87
77 Minnesota 20.92 23.23 -2.31
78 Georgia 28.92 31.46 -2.54
79 Mississippi 29.54 32.08 -2.54
80 Vanderbilt 16.33 19.15 -2.82
81 Miami, OH 15.58 18.42 -2.84
82 Texas 39.29 42.38 -3.09
83 UTEP 29.83 32.92 -3.09
84 Florida St. 30.08 33.38 -3.3
85 Colorado St. 21.67 25.15 -3.48
86 California 29.08 32.62 -3.54
87 North Carolina 23.77 27.69 -3.92
88 Western Mich. 24.67 28.62 -3.95
89 Kansas 29.42 33.38 -3.96
90 Arkansas St. 22.67 27 -4.33
91 Illinois 24.17 28.67 -4.5
92 New Mexico 16.33 21.08 -4.75
93 Iowa St. 20.54 25.33 -4.79
94 San Jose St. 13.75 18.67 -4.92
95 Memphis 21.83 27.15 -5.32
96 Oregon 36.08 41.92 -5.84
97 LSU 24.85 30.92 -6.07
98 Buffalo 24.08 30.29 -6.21
99 Kent St. 19.25 25.67 -6.42
100 Louisville 18.08 24.67 -6.59
101 Texas Tech 37 43.77 -6.77
102 Utah 29.85 36.92 -7.07
103 Iowa 23.15 30.31 -7.16
104 Baylor 20.75 28 -7.25
105 Florida 35.86 43.64 -7.78
106 Arizona 27.38 36.62 -9.24
107 Eastern Mich. 16.42 25.75 -9.33
108 Penn St. 28.85 38.92 -10.07
109 Nebraska 25.14 35.38 -10.24
110 New Mexico St. 11.46 22.17 -10.71
111 Akron 19.25 30 -10.75
112 La.-Lafayette 22.17 33.08 -10.91
113 USC 26.46 37.54 -11.08
114 Kansas St. 23 34.92 -11.92
115 Oklahoma St. 28.38 40.77 -12.39
116 Missouri 29 42.21 -13.21
117 Ball St. 19.17 34.93 -15.76
118 Tulsa 29.25 47.21 -17.96
119 Oklahoma 31.08 51.14 -20.06
120 Rice 18.25 41.31 -23.06
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