Most Improved Pass Offense in 2009

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Most Improved Pass Offense in 2009

February 26th, 2010 Phil Steele Leave a comment Go to comments

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in pass offense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Pass Offense 2009

Preseason Projection

Rank	Team
1	New Mexico
2	Syracuse
3	Notre Dame
4	Auburn
5	UCF
6	Hawaii
7	Wyoming
8	Michigan
9	Pittsburgh
10	California
11	Tennessee
12	Kentucky
13	Air Force
14	Stanford
15	SMU

116	Ball St
117	Kansas St
118	Missouri
119	New Mexico St
120	Rice

Final Rankings

Rank	Team	09 Pass Off	08 Pass Def	Diff
9	New Mexico	215.08	131.33	83.75
10	Syracuse	203.83	121.5	82.33
13	Notre Dame	323.5	245.38	78.12
28	Auburn	219.77	165.42	54.35
3	UCF	210.31	116.25	94.06
7	Hawaii	337	251.29	85.71
24	Wyoming	173.23	117.67	55.56
26	Michigan	198.33	143.17	55.16
59	Pittsburgh	211.31	203.38	7.93
36	California	222.69	189.77	32.92
11	Tennessee	226.31	145.83	80.48
96	Kentucky	140.31	171.85	-31.54
60	Air Force	88.38	82.15	6.23
21	Stanford	209.38	152.17	57.21
58	SMU	282	272.92	9.08

118	Ball St.	134.42	258	-123.58
115	Kansas St.	169.42	269.58	-100.16
104	Missouri	285.46	330.36	-44.9
120	New Mexico St.	87.77	301.33	-213.56
119	Rice	195.33	327.23	-131.9

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 6 of the top 13 most improved teams and 10 of my top 15 teams finished #28 or better! 14 of my 15 teams (93.3%) saw their pass offense ypg improve and on avg my top 15 improved their pass offense by 50 ypg in 09!

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in pass offense ypg saw their ppg decrease at least 44.9 ypg in 09 and all 5 of the teams finished 104th or worse! 4 of my projected preseason teams finished in the bottom 6 and on average the 5 teams had a pass offense decrease of 122.82 ypg in 09!

Heading into the season I thought New Mexico would have the most improved pass offense as they were switching to a no-huddle, high tempo, wide open spread offense under new HC Locksley. Despite the 1-11 overall record, the Lobos passing game was a bright spot avg 215.1 ypg in 09 a 83.75 ypg increase!

When my magazine was published in May I had Syracuse as the #2 most improved pass offense and that was before they acquired Duke transfer Greg Paulus in the summer. The Orange would go on to avg 203.8 ypg a 83.75 ypg improvement despite losing WR Williams mid year.

In my bottom 5 all of the teams were either losing a veteran QB or going thru a coaching change. Just like I predicted all of the teams saw their pass offense ypg drop in ’09 and with the exception of Missouri who still finished with a 44.9 ypg decrease, my bottom teams all had their pass offense ypg drop at least 100 ypg in 09!

Overall 19 of the 20 teams (95%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Complete List of all 120 Teams

Rank	Team	09 Pass Off	08 Pass Off	Diff
1	Duke	305	197.67	107.33
2	Idaho	286.69	187.75	98.94
3	UCF	210.31	116.25	94.06
4	Toledo	278.5	187.83	90.67
5	Bowling Green	316.15	225.75	90.4
6	Troy	336.54	246.62	89.92
7	Hawaii	337	251.29	85.71
8	Wake Forest	271.58	186.92	84.66
9	New Mexico	215.08	131.33	83.75
10	Syracuse	203.83	121.5	82.33
11	Tennessee	226.31	145.83	80.48
12	Florida St.	271.85	192.77	79.08
13	Notre Dame	323.5	245.38	78.12
14	Connecticut	216.54	139.69	76.85
15	Washington	236.5	163.83	72.67
16	Northwestern	286.54	216.69	69.85
17	North Carolina St.	272.92	206	66.92
18	Indiana	247.92	181.25	66.67
19	Miami FL	261.92	196.77	65.15
20	Baylor	242.33	180.67	61.66
21	Stanford	209.38	152.17	57.21
22	Michigan St.	269.38	213.31	56.07
23	Cincinnati	308.77	253	55.77
24	Wyoming	173.23	117.67	55.56
25	Miami OH	273.42	217.92	55.5
26	Michigan	198.33	143.17	55.16
27	Virginia Tech	183.92	129.07	54.85
28	Auburn	219.77	165.42	54.35
29	Utah St.	246.75	196.5	50.25
30	Kent St.	213.08	169.67	43.41
31	West Virginia	191.08	150.46	40.62
32	Iowa	222.08	181.69	40.39
33	Louisiana	224.83	185.5	39.33
34	Arkansas	295.54	259.58	35.96
35	Marshall	206.38	172.67	33.71
36	California	222.69	189.77	32.92
37	Colorado	226.42	194	32.42
38	Houston	433.71	401.62	32.09
39	Louisiana Tech	188.08	156	32.08
40	Washington St.	177.92	146	31.92
41	Texas A&M	281.62	252.42	29.2
42	Georgia Tech	126.71	99.23	27.48
43	Army	71.75	46.25	25.5
44	Wisconsin	213.08	188.08	25
45	Florida Atlantic	279.67	254.77	24.9
46	San Diego St.	263.58	239.25	24.33
47	ULM	208.42	184.58	23.84
48	Vanderbilt	146.33	122.62	23.71
49	Ohio St.	173.62	150.23	23.39
50	UCLA	222.77	200.5	22.27
51	Florida	236.07	213.93	22.14
52	Oregon St.	270.77	249	21.77
53	Alabama	187.93	171.14	16.79
54	TCU	217.15	201.08	16.07
55	Navy	75.57	60.92	14.65
56	San Jose St.	207.33	196.17	11.16
57	Boston College	187	176.5	10.5
58	SMU	282	272.92	9.08
59	Pittsburgh	211.31	203.38	7.93
60	Air Force	88.38	82.15	6.23
61	Western Ky.	147.92	142.17	5.75
62	Purdue	255.25	249.58	5.67
63	Kansas	310.33	305.62	4.71
64	Buffalo	241.92	237.57	4.35
65	Maryland	210.67	206.69	3.98
66	South Carolina	226.15	222.46	3.69
67	East Carolina	217.36	214	3.36
68	UNLV	224.42	223.33	1.09
69	UAB	196	197.25	-1.25
70	FIU	216.67	218.25	-1.58
71	Arkansas St.	193.58	195.5	-1.92
72	Mississippi	218.77	221.15	-2.38
73	Louisville	208.92	212.17	-3.25
74	Fresno St.	201.62	204.92	-3.3
75	Arizona St.	215.17	220.33	-5.16
76	Penn St.	237.15	243.08	-5.93
77	Middle Tenn.	235.69	241.67	-5.98
78	Southern Miss.	235	241.08	-6.08
79	UTEP	277.58	284.17	-6.59
80	Memphis	214.83	222.38	-7.55
81	Minnesota	207	219.08	-12.08
82	North Texas	223.42	235.67	-12.25
83	Northern Ill.	150	163.85	-13.85
84	Tulane	207.17	221.25	-14.08
85	Utah	229.23	244.46	-15.23
86	Arizona	225.15	244	-18.85
87	Western Mich.	275.5	294.69	-19.19
88	LSU	181.77	201.31	-19.54
89	North Carolina	174.92	198.77	-23.85
90	Boise St.	264.14	288.54	-24.4
91	Oregon	180.31	204.77	-24.46
92	Clemson	192	217.85	-25.85
93	Texas Tech	386.77	413.15	-26.38
94	BYU	281.46	310.38	-28.92
95	Mississippi St.	144.33	174.33	-30
96	Kentucky	140.31	171.85	-31.54
97	Virginia	170.5	203.17	-32.67
98	Central Mich.	255.5	289.77	-34.27
99	Texas	273.64	308.31	-34.67
100	Ohio	198.14	232.92	-34.78
101	USC	222.31	259.85	-37.54
102	Colorado St.	206.92	248.23	-41.31
103	Tulsa	259.33	301.86	-42.53
104	Missouri	285.46	330.36	-44.9
105	South Fla.	194.69	239.62	-44.93
106	Akron	182.5	231.5	-49
107	Temple	146.46	202.92	-56.46
108	Oklahoma	289.23	349.36	-60.13
109	Oklahoma St.	179.46	242.23	-62.77
110	Iowa St.	184.69	248.42	-63.73
111	Nevada	160.69	230.77	-70.08
112	Illinois	193.08	269.33	-76.25
113	Georgia	201.15	277.69	-76.54
114	Rutgers	191.92	270.38	-78.46
115	Kansas St.	169.42	269.58	-100.16
116	Nebraska	175.71	281	-105.29
117	Eastern Mich.	152.08	269.33	-117.25
118	Ball St.	134.42	258	-123.58
119	Rice	195.33	327.23	-131.9
120	New Mexico St.	87.77	301.33	-213.56