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Most Improved Pass Defense in 2009

March 1st, 2010 Leave a comment Go to comments

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in pass defense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be impressed with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Pass Defense 2009

Preseason Projection

Rank Team
1 North Texas
2 Texas
3 Central Michigan
4 Temple
5 Iowa St
6 Nevada
7 Indiana
8 LSU
9 Pittsburgh
10 Louisiana Tech
11 Idaho
12 Kansas St
13 North Carolina
14 Florida
15 Notre Dame
116 Oregon St
117 Bowling Green
118 South Carolina
119 Northern Illinois
120 Buffalo

Final Rankings

Rank Team 09 Pass Def YPG O8 Pass Def YPG Diff
7 North Texas 216.75 275.5 -58.75
1 Texas 179.57 259.38 -79.81
4 Central Mich. 221.36 287.23 -65.87
62 Temple 226.38 221.67 4.71
21 Iowa St. 250.15 276.67 -26.52
38 Nevada 297.77 311.62 -13.85
30 Indiana 241.92 260.5 -18.58
28 LSU 194.23 215.38 -21.15
81 Pittsburgh 213 193 20
3 Louisiana Tech 205.5 272.69 -67.19
77 Idaho 278.08 262.42 15.66
20 Kansas St. 234.5 261.42 -26.92
9 North Carolina 174 226 -52
19 Florida 152.79 179.86 -27.07
93 Notre Dame 227.5 195.69 31.81
110 Oregon St. 235.08 180.92 54.16
84 Bowling Green 204 180.83 23.17
59 South Carolina 163 159.23 3.77
103 Northern Ill. 205.54 161.08 44.46
23 Buffalo 210.92 235.21 -24.29

As you can see my projections were fairly accurate. I nailed 5 of the top 10 most improved teams and 10 of my top 15 teams finished #30 or better! 11 of my 15 teams (73.3%) saw their pass defense ypg decrease and on avg my top 15 improved by 25.7 ypg in ’09!

4 of my projected bottom 5 teams in pass defense saw their ypg increase in ’09 and overall the 5 teams had a pass defense increase of 20.3 ypg in ’09!

Coming into the season North Texas had 4 returning starters in the secondary and the backups were experienced as well. I thought the Mean Green would make tremendous strides as HC Dodge thought his secondary “was so much more athletic.” My projection turned to be accurate as North Texas finished as the 7th most improved pass defense with a 58.8 ypg improvement.

In ’08 Texas had to replace 3 starters in the secondary and they went on to allow 259 pass ypg. Last season the Longhorns only lost CB Ryan Palmer and returned six players back with starting experience (3 others with 12+ games).With so much experience returning I called for the Longhorns to have the 2nd most improved pass defense in the country and they didn’t disappoint finishing #1 by allowing nearly 80 ypg less in 09!

Last year Central Michigan returned an amazing 10 players with starting experience in the secondary and I expected a big jump in my pass D rankings as I had them the 3rd most improved team. Again my projection turned out to be nearly right on as the Chippewas finished #4 allowing 66 ypg less in 09!

Overall 15 of the 20 teams (75%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009.

Most Improved Pass Defense 2009

Rank Team 09 Pass Def YPG 08 Pass Def YPG Diff
1 Texas 179.57 259.38 -79.81
2 Oklahoma 179.69 251.5 -71.81
3 Louisiana Tech 205.5 272.69 -67.19
4 Central Mich. 221.36 287.23 -65.87
5 Oregon 207.62 270.23 -62.61
6 Eastern Mich. 150.5 212.25 -61.75
7 North Texas 216.75 275.5 -58.75
8 Nebraska 178.86 233.38 -54.52
9 North Carolina 174 226 -52
10 Mississippi 174.38 221.69 -47.31
11 Air Force 154.31 199.92 -45.61
12 Iowa 152.92 197.31 -44.39
13 Army 152.83 194.42 -41.59
14 Missouri 251.46 286.64 -35.18
15 Louisville 206 239.33 -33.33
16 Oklahoma St. 236.77 267.69 -30.92
17 Kansas 245 273.62 -28.62
18 Baylor 226.83 255.25 -28.42
19 Florida 152.79 179.86 -27.07
20 Kansas St. 234.5 261.42 -26.92
21 Iowa St. 250.15 276.67 -26.52
22 North Carolina St. 222.17 248.69 -26.52
23 Buffalo 210.92 235.21 -24.29
24 UTEP 246.08 270.25 -24.17
25 SMU 230.38 253.92 -23.54
26 Alabama 166 189.36 -23.36
27 Minnesota 217.46 240.31 -22.85
28 LSU 194.23 215.38 -21.15
29 Arizona St. 189 208.67 -19.67
30 Indiana 241.92 260.5 -18.58
31 Marshall 236.92 253.67 -16.75
32 Texas Tech 225.62 242.23 -16.61
33 Kentucky 176.77 193.15 -16.38
34 Hawaii 202.69 218.79 -16.1
35 Akron 195.75 210.42 -14.67
36 Western Mich. 240.5 254.85 -14.35
37 Utah 176 190 -14
38 Nevada 297.77 311.62 -13.85
39 Houston 224.71 238.31 -13.6
40 Colorado 201.83 215.33 -13.5
41 Ohio St. 171.54 183.54 -12
42 TCU 159.46 170.69 -11.23
43 Boise St. 179.86 190.15 -10.29
44 Vanderbilt 164.92 174.92 -10
45 Clemson 162.79 172.54 -9.75
46 Michigan 221.42 230 -8.58
47 Virginia Tech 167.08 175 -7.92
48 South Florida 186.31 192.38 -6.07
49 Penn St. 184.62 186.85 -2.23
50 Utah St. 249.58 251.08 -1.5
51 Fresno St. 199.62 200.85 -1.23
52 Tulsa 250.17 249.64 0.53
53 Virginia 184.58 183.67 0.91
54 Navy 213.07 211.85 1.22
55 Kent St. 218.92 216.5 2.42
56 Miami, OH 190.42 187.17 3.25
57 San Diego St. 216.5 213.25 3.25
58 BYU 218.92 215.62 3.3
59 South Carolina 163 159.23 3.77
60 Ohio 194.79 191 3.79
61 Rice 273.42 269.46 3.96
62 Temple 226.38 221.67 4.71
63 ULM 236.92 232 4.92
64 Middle Tenn. 218.08 212.83 5.25
65 Louisiana 222.42 216.33 6.09
66 Arkansas St. 218.5 211.33 7.17
67 Northwestern 221.85 214.15 7.7
68 Tennessee 169.23 160.42 8.81
69 Syracuse 235.17 225.08 10.09
70 Duke 215.75 205.42 10.33
71 Florida Atlantic 232.58 221.69 10.89
72 Texas A&M 254.69 242.67 12.02
73 West Virginia 209.85 197.31 12.54
74 Rutgers 204.54 191.31 13.23
75 San Jose St. 183.75 170.25 13.5
76 Georgia Tech 208.64 193.23 15.41
77 Idaho 278.08 262.42 15.66
78 Colorado St. 235.67 220 15.67
79 Arizona 201.54 181.92 19.62
80 Purdue 203.17 183.25 19.92
81 Pittsburgh 213 193 20
82 Western Ky. 233.42 212.83 20.59
83 Wisconsin 217.46 195.77 21.69
84 Bowling Green 204 180.83 23.17
85 Cincinnati 230.23 206.93 23.3
86 Georgia 213.23 189.69 23.54
87 UCLA 191.23 167.67 23.56
88 UNLV 235.58 210.08 25.5
89 Maryland 245.5 218.23 27.27
90 Ball St. 234.33 205.21 29.12
91 Washington 240.67 211.17 29.5
92 Wyoming 220.77 189.5 31.27
93 Notre Dame 227.5 195.69 31.81
94 Southern Miss. 261.62 226.31 35.31
95 Stanford 264.77 226.67 38.1
96 Toledo 241.42 203.08 38.34
97 Auburn 218 178.83 39.17
98 New Mexico 253.67 213.5 40.17
99 Miami, FL 207.31 165.62 41.69
100 Mississippi St. 220 176.58 43.42
101 New Mexico St. 202.92 159.42 43.5
102 Arkansas 248.46 204.42 44.04
103 Northern Ill. 205.54 161.08 44.46
104 Tulane 218 172.83 45.17
105 FIU 258.75 212.92 45.83
106 Wake Forest 218.75 172.54 46.21
107 Boston College 224.46 176.93 47.53
108 UAB 311.5 262.92 48.58
109 Illinois 248.83 197.42 51.41
110 Oregon St. 235.08 180.92 54.16
111 Michigan St. 267.62 213.38 54.24
112 UCF 267.77 207.67 60.1
113 East Carolina 258 197.21 60.79
114 Florida St. 230 162.38 67.62
115 Connecticut 235.92 168.23 67.69
116 California 266.85 193 73.85
117 USC 212.31 134.38 77.93
118 Washington St. 275.58 195.77 79.81
119 Memphis 283.42 200.92 82.5
120 Troy 286.77 187.77 99
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  • ConnGator

    Alabama is the Southern Cal of 2010: Overly hyped team that lost 9 defensive starters.

    Watch that passing yards allowed number go up by 75 yards, minimum.

  • ConnGator

    Alabama is the Southern Cal of 2010: Overly hyped team that lost 9 defensive starters.

    Watch that passing yards allowed number go up by 75 yards, minimum.