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NFL Draft: Which Teams Will Lose the Most?

After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect.

Today’s blog will give you the first look at which teams will be losing the most players to this year’s draft and which teams might suffer from the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect that appears in my magazine every year.

While the draft is not until April and several players could move up or down on draft boards, I think this early edition will give you a first look to see which teams will be losing the most players to the draft and it maybe a precursor for trouble for many college programs.

For the system I have created, 7 points are awarded if a player was picked in the 1st round. A 2nd round pick garners 5 points, a 3 round pick four, 4th round three and a 5th round two.  In the NFL there’s not much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and a high quality undrafted free agent signee so I award 1 point to a 6th or 7th round pick. If you need more information please refer to pg 308 in last year’s College Preview magazine. 

Here are the teams that could lose the most possible points in this years draft and again these numbers could change over the next 6 weeks. The numbers in each column represent the number of players being projected right now in each round.

Team Total  1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd 4th Rd 5th Rd 6th or 7th Pts 09 Win 09 Loss
Florida 9 3 3 1 1 1   45 13 1
USC 8 2 2 2 1 1   37 9 4
Oklahoma 7 3 2     1 1 34 8 5
Texas 7 2 1 2 1 1   32 13 1
Alabama 9 1 2 1 2   3 30 14 0
Tennessee 7 2   1 1 1 2 25 7 6
South Florida 6 1 1 2 1   1 24 8 5
Georgia Tech 5 1 3       1 23 11 3
LSU 10   2     5 3 23 9 4
Iowa 7 1   1 2 2 1 22 11 2
Oklahoma St 4 2 1       1 20 9 4
Notre Dame 5 2       2 1 19 6 6
Clemson 5 1 1 1     2 18 9 5
Penn St 4 1 1 1   1   18 11 2
California 4 1   2   1   17 8 5
Mississippi 6   1 1 2   2 17 9 4
Virginia Tech 7   1 1   2 3 16 10 3
Rutgers 4 1 1     1 1 15 9 4
Georgia 4   1 1 1 1   14 8 5
Michigan 4 1   1     2 13 5 7
Illinois 3 1   1   1   13 3 9

Florida is #3 overall in the SEC in draft picks the last 10 years with 50 (Georgia #1 with 55). Florida’s 9 draft picks in ’07 led the nation and were the most in UF history in the 7 round draft. This year the Gators have a chance to break that record with three likely 1st-rounders in CB Joe Haden, OC Maurkice Pouncey and DE Carlos Dunlap.  QB Tim Tebow, TE Aaron Hernandez and LB Brandon Spikes will likely all get drafted in the 2nd round. WR Riley Cooper and DE Jermaine Cunningham also will be drafted this year as the Gators will easily have the most draft day points come April.

USC has now had 60 players rafted over the last 10 years ranking them #1 in the Pac-10. The Trojans have had more 1st round draft choices than any other school (74) including 14 during the Pete Carroll era. This year will be no different as USC could lose as many as 8 players to the draft including 2 possible 1st rounders in DE Everson Griffen and S Taylor Mays.  RB Joe McKnight, WR Damian Williams, TE Anthony McCoy and OT Charles Brown will all likely be drafted in the 2-3 rounds giving the Trojans the 2nd highest number of points.

Oklahoma has had eight 1st round DC’s in the Stoops’ era but has only had 2 players chosen in the Top 10 (Roy Williams, #8 in 2002 and Adrian Peterson, #7 in ’07).  That will change this year as QB Sam Bradford and DT Gerald McCoy will both likely be selected in the Top 10. The Sooners will also lose OT Trent Williams, TE Jermaine Gresham and CB Dominique Franks in the 1st-2nd rounds.

Every year Mack Brown loads up with some of the top HS recruits and with that in mind it is surprising that the Longhorns have had only 39 players in the draft over the the last ten years (avg of “only” 4 players a year). That ranks 3rd in the Big 12. However that number has been rising with Texas producing NINE 1st rounders in the last six years! Texas will likely lose two more 1st rounders this year in DE/OLB Sergio Kindle and CB Earl Thomas.  QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, DT Lamarr Houston and OLB Roddrick Muckelroy will all likely be drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds and as many as 7 Longhorns could get drafted.

Last year OT Andre Smith was Alabama’s first 1st round draft choice since 2000 when OT Chris Samuels was the 3rd overall pick & RB Shaun Alexander was the 18th overall pick. That number will continue to rise this year as LB Rolando McClain will get selected in the 1st round.  The Crimson Tide will also lose DT Terrence Cody, OG Mike Johnson, TE Colin Peek and CBs Kareem Jackson and Javier Arenas to the 2nd-4th rounds. Overall Alabama could lose as many as nine players this year.

Tennessee is #2 in the SEC in overall draft picks the last 10 years with 54, but is only #5 in the SEC the last 5 years with 18 including just 1 last year (Robert Ayers , #18 Denver). This year the Vols could get as many as 7 players drafted including two likely 1st rounders in S Eric Berry and DT Dan Williams. RB Montario Hardesty will probably be selected in the 3rd-4th rounds while QB Jonathan Crompton could go as high as the 4th round.

South Florida has had 11 draft picks in their 12-year history but could see as many as 6 players taken in this years draft! DE Jason Pierre-Paul will likely become only the 2nd player in Bulls history to be drafted in the 1st round (CB Mike Jenkins 25th 2008). FS Nate Allen, DE George Selvie and WR Carlton Mitchell could all be selected in the 2nd-3rd rounds giving the Bulls their most draft points ever!

Georgia Tech has had 22 players drafted in the last ten years which ranks them 8th in the ACC. This year that number could significantly change as the Yellow Jackets could lose as many as 5 players to the draft including highly regarded WR Demaryius Thomas and DE Derrick Morgan who both have the opportunity to get drafted in the 1st round this year.  RB Jonathan Dwyer will probably go in the 2nd round while FS Morgan Burnett will probably go in the 3rd round easily giving the Jackets their most points in over a decade!

In 2007, LSU set a school record with 4 first round selections including the #1 pick overall, QB JaMarcus Russell. This year LSU will probably not have anyone selected in the 1st round however the Tigers could lose as many as 10 players.  WR Brandon LaFell and S Chad Jones will get selected in the 2nd-3rd rounds and LSU has as many as 8 players that are being projected to be drafted in the 4-7th rounds.

Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz was an OL coach in the NFL prior to arriving in Iowa City so it shouldn’t be surprising that eight Hawkeye OL have been drafted in the last 7 years. This year will be no different as the Hawkeyes will lose OT Bryan Bulaga who likely will be the highest draft pick from Iowa since Robert Gallery, #2 in 2004.  Another OT Kyle Calloway will likely be selected in the 3rd-4th round. Overall the Hawkeyes could lose as many as 7 players to the draft including TE Tony Moeaki, OLB AJ Edds and CB Amari Spievey who all look to be 3rd-4th round picks.

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