Home Records Past Decade
About a month ago I analyzed each teams conference records this past decade. Now lets take a look at home records this decade. First lets get to the chart and then some analysis.
Home Records Past Decade
|82||San Jose St||29||23||55.77%|
|105||New Mexico St||25||31||44.64%|
|110||San Diego St||24||33||42.11%|
It is no surprise that Boise St is atop the list as their blue uniforms blend in with the blue turf giving them a unique advantage. Only one team has beaten them at home during the regular season and that was way back in 2001 when a Wash St team that finished 10-2 and #10 in the polls beat them 41-20. Their other home loss was in a bowl game vs Boston College 27-21 in 2005. While Boise has an incredible home record it must be factored in that they have played just 6 BCS conference schools at home this decade and are 4-2 in those games. That makes Oklahoma’s record of 61-2 even more remarkable. Almost all of their home games have been vs BCS foes and ironically one of their two home losses was to a non-BCS school when TCU beat them in 2005. Their other loss came when they were a 4 TD favorite to beat rival Oklahoma St which came into the game just 3-7 and that was the game that put Les Miles on the map. Oklahoma was caught looking ahead to their Big 12 title game vs Colorado the next week but that loss knocked them out of the game.
Seven teams have single digit losses at home this decade. Texas (4), Troy (5), Ohio St (9), TCU (7), USC (8) and Florida (9) have all lost less than 1 game at home per year. Here are some schools that rank near the top that the casual college football fan probably would not expect. Texas Tech is 53-11 at home this decade with Lubbock an out the way location with a loud home crowd. Despite having one of the smallest stadium capacities (44,500) for BCS schools, Boston College is 51-13 at Alumni. Louisville is off three straight disappointing seasons but is still 49-13 in Papa Johns. With three very successful seasons top close the decade, Cincinnati is a surprising 46-13 at home the past 10 years. Northern Illinois is one of the loudest places to play despite the small capacity and they are 42-15 at home.
Is there an advantage to playing at home?
The 120 FBS teams have a combined home record of 4593-2651 which means that they win 63.4% of their home games. Also there are 93 of the 120 teams that have a record of .500 or better at home and just 27 teams that have a losing record at home this decade.
Let me take a closer look at the teams at the bottom of the list. All 27 teams listed above that had losing records at home have losing records overall this decade. There are 8 BCS conference schools on the list in Kentucky, Indiana, Miss St, Stanford, Arizona, Baylor, Vanderbilt and Duke. When Duke wins opposing players usually say they were lulled to sleep by the high school sized crowds and they have pulled some upsets like upsetting Clemson in 2004 and Georgia Tech in 2003 but 5 of their 12 wins at home this decade have been vs FCS or 1AA foes so they are actually 7-47 at home vs FBS teams this decade.
That got me thinking of how many times a team has been an underdog at home this decade. Is there any team in the country that has not been an underdog even once at home? The answer is yes and it is Texas which has been favored in all 54 home games this decade and has lost 4 of those. Florida has been a home dog just once in the “Swamp” and that was vs Florida St a game they did lose 38-34. Oklahoma was actually a dog once at home this decade and they beat Nebraska in 2000 31-14. Vegas linesmakers knew what they were doing with Boise St as they have been a home dog just twice this decade and those were their two home losses.
It probably does not surprise you that Duke has been a home dog 46 times this decade which is the most of any school.
That got me looking at two more scenarios. First of all which teams have been overrated at home. I took the amount of times a team was expected to lose at home (an underdog) and subtracted the amount of actual losses they suffered at home. There are 8 teams who lost 9 games (or more) than the amount of games they were expected to lose at home and the list is a little surprising. Florida St lost 17 games (11 in L/4 yrs) at home but were only a dog 4 times which puts them at the top of the list with 13. Here are the 8 teams that lost 9+ more games at home than was expected. 1. Florida St 13 2. Southern Miss 12 3. Middle Tennessee 10 Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Purdue and BYU all had 9.
Now lets take a look at the underrated home teams from this decade. I know Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. They are 43-21 at home and just 19-35 when playing on the road. It surprises me that they have been expected to lose (underdog) 27 times at home this decade and yet they have lost just 21 times. That is 6 full games better than expected and that is the best in the FBS. As you would expect the numbers are a lot lower for teams who actually have less losses at home than games they were expected to lose. There are only 21 teams that made this list so let me list them all below. Virginia 6 Tied with 5 are Northwestern, Rice and Tulane. Tied with 4 are Nevada, Cincinnati and Maryland. Tied with 3 are Utah St, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Baylor and Indiana. Tied with 2 are Hawaii, Stanford, South Carolina. Finally Kansas, Washington, San Jose St, Buffalo, Central Michigan and Troy.
Tomorrow I take a look at the best road teams this decade.
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