As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season.

Listed below are the rankings from the NFL for the 2010 season for the toughest schedule. They are based on the 2009 records of the opponents they will face this year. While this method is decent in determining how tough an opponent’s schedule is for the next season it does have a flaw as not all teams are the same strength they were last year. For example, I think Washington who struggled through a disappointing season will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL & is a surprise contender for the NFC East. They are only counted as being a 4-12 team in this method.

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (NFL Method)

Now I have compiled my list of toughest schedules based on my preseason Power Ratings of each team, and again this year I have added a portion of the formula to incorporate the NFL’s statistical model. I feel this method is much more accurate because injuries, offseason personnel & coaching changes are not factored into the NFL ratings while they are in my rankings. My list of who will face the toughest schedules for the 2010 season uses my FIVE sets of Power Ratings with the records for last year only counting for about 20% of the grade. Here is my list:

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (My Method)

Let’s take a look at some of the major discrepancies between the NFL’s toughest schedule and my rankings. Jacksonville is listed as playing the #5 toughest schedule while my rankings list them at #16. Some of the factors for the difference are that they play Philadelphia who went to the playoffs last year but I expect to have a losing season and they also play the weak AFC West, which I expect to have a down year.

I believe my way of rating the schedules has proved to be most accurate but that is not the only way we analyze schedules. At the end of the year I took my final power ratings for half the grade, and the final win-loss record for the year for the other half of the toughest schedule grade, and came up with my POST 2009 toughest schedules. Here is that list.

Post 2009 Toughest Schedules

According to the NFL’s way of figuring the toughest schedule New Orleans went into 2009 with the 8th most difficult schedule. Their opponents had a .557 win %. The Saints started the season 13-0, before losing their final 3 regular season games after locking up the #1 NFC seed vs the #21 schedule overall. On the opposite end the Ravens had the NFL’s #28 schedule but in reality had the #3 schedule. Last year the NFL method had Miami playing the TOUGHEST schedule & my rankings also had the Dolphins at #2 and they actually faced the #2 schedule.

This year I will look at teams whose schedule has changed by 18 or more spots in comparison to the post 2009 schedule. Here are teams that should IMPROVE their record due to facing a softer slate: New York Jets (18 spots easier) and Tampa Bay (18). Last year Cincinnati went from 4-11-1 to winning the AFC North after a 26 spot schedule switch.

Here are teams that face much tougher schedules this year and will probably see their records drop some. The Packers go from having the #31 schedule to now having the league’s #11 ranked schedule (20 spots). Others with much tougher slates are Washington (22), Philadelphia (18), Chicago (12), Detroit (12), Cincinnati (10) Houston (10) and Buffalo (10). Last year Tampa Bay, which was 9-7 in ’08, was inlcuded in this article and went 3-13.

In the last four years 34 teams have been included in my schedule analysis and of the 14 teams that had much easier schedules twelve have improved their record (85.7%) and 16 of 20 with much tougher scedules had weaker records with 3 teams having the same record as the year before (95%).

Can the strength of schedule make a difference? In 2002, Tampa Bay drew an easy schedule by playing in a soft division. That would brighten their playoff hopes and they won the Super Bowl. In 2005, Seattle had the #31 schedule helping them withstand injury losses to QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander while the Bears used the #32 ranked schedule in 2006 to roll to the Super Bowl with a 13-3 regular season mark. In 2007 Cleveland faced the #31 schedule and had the improbable run from 4-12 to 10-6. In 2008 Miami used the #28 schedule to their advantage & won the AFC East in one of the best turnarounds in NFL history. Last year Cincinnati went from facing the #2 toughest schedule to #15 and improved from a half game ahead of the last place Browns to winning the AFC North Title.

Make sure to pick up Phil Steele’s NFL Preview on a newsstand near you for just $7.95. If you cannot find the magazine you can always order online at the PhilSteele.com Store. The cost is just $12.70 which inlcudes priority shipping.

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