USF (7-5) VS CLEMSON (6-6)

There was great anticipation at USF after Holtz took over in January. The Bulls played 6 games decided by a TD or less (3 wins incl 2 in OT) and captured their 1st ever win over Miami. One sore spot all year was the erratic play of QB Daniels. He has suffered numerous injuries TY (missed finale) but is probable here. Daniels threw 7 of his 12 int vs FL and WV, both games that were closer than the final suggests. Overall USF is #89 on offense and #41 on defense. LB Williams leads the team in tackles and tfl. USF is #55 in my pass D rankings all’g 188 ypg (59%) with a 16-13 ratio vs a very soft slate of opposing QB’s. USF is #60 in my ST rankings with a low net punt avg (34.4, last in BE) but strong ret specialists with KR Lindsey #2 in the BE in avg and PR Mitchell #4. PK Bonani ret’d from a severe inj TY and was nearly perfect inside the 50 (16-17).

Clemson began the season 3-3 for the 9th time S/’95 and 3rd year in a row. After two easy wins, they faced their toughest test in the entire month of Sept when they traveled to Auburn. After punching the Tigers in the mouth, CU all’d a comeback and fell in OT, which started a streak of 3 straight losses. The offense comes in rated #64. Colorado Rockies #1 DC QB Parker struggled with int TY but mended his rift with Swinney after being benched vs South Carolina and will start the last gm of his career here. The DL (6’4” 290) totaled 25.5 of the tm’s 28 sks, led by ACC DPY/Nagurski winner Bowers (15.5). The secondary ranks #20 all’g 192 ypg (52%) with a 16-14 ratio. The D is ranked #13 overall while the ST’s come in at #9 led by Ray Guy semifinalist P Zimmerman (only ACC P in final 10).

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ARMY (6-6) VS SMU (7-6)

EAST CAROLINA (6-6) VS MARYLAND (8-4)

East Carolina’s success TY can be solely credited to their offense (#26) led by JC transfer Davis who broke Jeff Blake’s school TD pass record with 36 as EC avg’d 38 ppg and 445 ypg. The defense is ranked #119 all’g 43 ppg and an FBS worst 479 ypg on the year including dismal performances vs Navy (76 pts, 521 rush) and Rice (62 pts, 639 yds). The secondary all’d 258 ypg (60%) with a 30-9 ratio placing them #102 in my pass D rankings. EC also has my #98 ST unit.

Many MD fans were up in arms when backup QB O’Brien saw the field vs Navy (fmbl’d his 1st college att). Now those same fans are singing his praise. O’Brien was thrust into the spotlight vs FIU and remained the starter even after option runner Robinson ret’d from injury. The top receiver, Smith, is the first 1,000 yd receiver here S/’92. The Terps have scored 6 non-off TD’s TY and 4 have come by the #44 rated D. MD ranks #24 in my pass eff D all’g 221 ypg (53%) with a 15-17 ratio and MD has my #5 ST’s unit with PR Logan finishing #3 NCAA and avg nearly as much as the top KR. MD is also +4 in the punt block department.

EC has been one-dimensional as they have my #119 D and have allowed 40+ pts 9 of 12 games but MD is not an offense that sustains long drives. EC’s offense has been dynamic and they have topped 32 pts in their L/8 gms and this game should feature a lot of points but the Terps might have the emotional edge sending their coach off with a win in his final game after a pretty successful tenure. Read more…

NC STATE (8-4) VS WEST VIRGINIA (9-3)

WV’s season has been a little rocky and ultimately disappointing as they narrowly missed out on a BCS Bowl due to B2B losses to Syr and a 16-13 loss in OT to Connecticut. After those 2 losses fans were calling for HC Stewart to be ousted, but the Mountaineers were able to regroup on their bye week and won their L/4 gms. However that was not good enough as they introduced former Ok St OC Dana Holgorsen as their new HC (will take over in 2012) just a few days ago but he was not part of the bowl preparations. QB Smith had great stats overall in his 1st year as a st’r but had some rough outings in the tm’s 2 losses with a 1-3 ratio vs Syr and Conn (WV -6 TO’s in those 2 gms). Star RB Devine was hampered by a foot inj all yr and his production fell drastically (-581 yds) but he managed to play in every gm. WV’s (#4) defense is vastly underrated as they are #2 in the nation in rush D allowing just 85 ypg and have only all’d 3 rush TD’s (#1 in NCAA). WV is #59 in my ST rankings finishing #3 in the BE in net punting (37.4) but having just avg numbers on returns.
West Virginia imploded with a couple poor mid-season performances but since then have demonstrated just how talented they are beating 3 of their L/4 opps by 21+ pts. The D has not all’d any opp to top 21 pts (only team in the NCAA) while the offense has topped 35 in 3 of the L/4 gms. NCSt has trailed at HT in 4 of their L/6 gms and have been fortunate in several of their wins. Offenses are almost even, but a huge defensive edge to WV.

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GEORGIA TECH (6-6) VS AIR FORCE (8-4)

While GT is likely disappointed with the season as a whole, as after winning the ACC Title LY, they’ve fallen to 6-6. AF, however is thrilled, after going 8-4 TY beating BYU and winning the CIC Trophy for the 1st time since 2002. The Jackets have taken on the tougher sked (#58-81) but remember that AF travelled to Oklahoma and gave them a scare, only losing by 3. This is a long distance from both schools but AF has the edge with military bases located nearby and the Bowl offering up a Military Ticket Initiative to donate to local bases. While AF ended its season earlier (11/18, GT done 11/27), this is the offense each team takes on daily, so extra prep time weighs no benefit to either.

GT comes in with my #51 offense but there is a question at QB. Against VA Tech, st’r Nesbitt broke his arm while trying to make a tkl. He was aiming to return here, but currently is doubtful. His bkup Washington has thrown for 97 ypg (63%) with a 2-1 ratio while adding 289 rush (4.4) in his 3 starts. HC Johnson called out RB Allen at times throughout the season and he responded by earning 1st Tm ACC and finished #2 in the conference in rushing. Johnson had some issues with the OL and was forced to alter the rotation due to injuries throughout the season (5 different starting combos used). Their #65 defense has not had the same inj issues as they’ve missed 1 start due to inj this entire year. The special teams come in with just my #105 ranking and this could be a problem area for the Jackets tonight.

On the other side Air Force’s #43 offense is led by QB Jefferson. While AF is definitely a run first offense (699 rush att, 145 pass TY), Jefferson went over 100 yds pass 7x’s incl a ssn high 201 vs Utah. Three of AF’s top 5 rushers are underclassmen led by Jr Clark. AF was thin at FB after losing Tew vs SDSt but Walker stepped up and rushed for 264 (5.0) in the L/3. Tew is expected to return and that should bolster AF’s run offense that ranks #2 in the NCAA and the Falcons are 20-4 when a player goes over 100 rush yds in a gm. AF’s D has been known for TO’s under HC Calhoun as into TY they were +46 in his tenure! While they’ve forced 20 fmbl’s TY, they’ve only recovered 7 and on the season they’re just +1 TO. LY the run D all’d zero 200 yd rush gm, but TY 6 have gone over that number (incl 377 all’d to TCU). They do rank #21 in my pass eff D all’g 157 ypg (56%) with a 10-11 ratio. The #12 ST’s unit is led by KR Warzeka who had a 100 yd KR TD. The unit has blk’d at least 1 kick every year since ‘90 and has 3 TY.

Air Force, as all service academies do, prepares well for the bowls and this year they see a new venue after having been to the Armed Forces Bowl three straight years. Georgia Tech, with 6 wins, is disappointed at being here but, of course, does not have to spend the time most teams do prepping for this opponent. The Yellow Jackets have dropped 4 of their last 5 gms, all by a TD plus and I feel that it’ll be tough for them to be motivated plus Johnson’s bowl performances the past two years have left a lot to be desired. Read more…

FIU (6-6) VS TOLEDO (8-4)

TULSA (9-3) VS HAWAII (10-3)

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL
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LOUISVILLE (6-6) vs SOUTHERN MISS (8-4)