Archive

Archive for June, 2011

Who Will Be This Year’s Most Improve Team in Points Scored/Allowed?

June 30th, 2011 No comments

My 2011 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 120 media guides rolled into one.

Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!

I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 324 and 327.

I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the back of the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate. Read more…

Who Will Be This Year’s Surprise Team?

June 29th, 2011 4 comments

Do you think it is easy picking a National Champ prior to the year? Since 1994, only 3 times has the preseason #1 team gone on to win the National Title. In 2008, Georgia was the preseason #1 team but I had FLORIDA to win the title and the Gators delivered for me!! Athlon was the only other source to have Florida #1. In 2007 NO Magazine had LSU or Ohio St #1 (USC was the consensus #1). In 2006, National Champ Florida was not picked #1 by ANY magazine and they were picked anywhere from #4 down to #20. They were #7 in the preseason AP Poll and #8 in the Coaches’ Poll. In 2005 everyone had USC again and no one had the actual Champ, Texas. Only in 1999 (everyone with Florida St), 2001 (two magazines) and 2004 (everyone with USC) did any of the Big 9 preseason magazines correctly pick the National Champ. Read more…

2010 Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: Big 12

June 28th, 2011 1 comment

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the Big 12 teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: Big 12:

 

Baylor 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (1)

TEXAS TECH – The two teams nearly traded score for score in the 1H as the Red Raiders took a 35-28 lead into the break. They extended it to 45-28 after their first two drives of the 2H but BU cut it to 45-38 early 4Q. BU got down to the TT16 with 3:47 left but their 4&15 attempt came short. They got the ball back with :57 left and got to the TT31 but ran out of time.

 

Baylor 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (2)

 

Read more…

My Early Forecasts for the Top 4 Requested Games!

June 27th, 2011 No comments

Today I will take a break from the best case/worst case scenarios. First we are only 65 days away from the start of college football season and today I want to talk about a couple of new features on PhilSteele.com.

First, this past weekend on my Facebook Fans page I took requests for some of my early forecasts for 2011’s top games.  From the hundreds of requests here were the first four games.

Facebook Forecasts

1. Arkansas at Alabama, Sept 24th – Both teams have 1st year starting QB’s but Ark’s Wilson makes his first road start vs the best defense in the country (not ideal situation). In Mallett’s 1st start here (12 of 35 passing) and the Hogs lost 35-7 with just 254 yds offense. Ark Oline also is young and has to replace three 3-yr starters. Both teams are in my Top Ten in my Power Poll but 1st road starts are tough and the Tide wins at home 27-17. Read more…

2010 Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: ACC

June 25th, 2011 No comments

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the ACC teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: ACC:

 

Boston College 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (3)

FLORIDA ST – Montel Harris rushed for 191 yards and BC led this one 19-17 in the 4Q. Harris got 72 and 48 yd runs but they settled for 33 and 37 yd FG’s and led 6-0. FSU had just 51 yds offense until their final drive of the half where a TD with 1:03 left put them up 14-6. BC had a 198-147 yd edge at the half. BC had a 53 yd IR TD called back on an offsides. FSU got a TD with 10:50 left to take the lead. BC punted with 8:04 left and FSU got 3 FD’s incl a 4&1 at the BC33 and were able to run out the clock.

MARYLAND – MD led 24-7 at the end of 3Q. BC got a TD with 11:20 left then after a deflected pass was caught for a 63 yd gain to the 3, they got a TD with 7:10 left, 24-21. BC got to the MD41 but dropped a slant pass on 4&3 (4:12). BC’s last drive they were SOD at their own 44 with 1:13 left.

NEVADA – A key factor here was BC RB Montel Harris who was supposed to return to the lineup, injured himself in pregame and DNP so BC was missing an important part of their offense. BC got a 32 yd FG with 3:52 left. BC forced a punt with 3:06 left and got out to their 42 but on 2&13 was int’d at their own 47.

Read more…

Slipping and Sliding: 2-Year Net Loss!

June 24th, 2011 No comments

Yesterday I blogged about a 2 year net win differential on teams that improved their record after having a record much weaker one season than they had the previous 2 years. I went in depth as to how I came upon that chart and the results. Today I will take a look at the 2 year net loss indicator. For a deeper explanation on how this chart was achieved, go to the blog posted on June 23rd.

When I reviewed the numbers since 1990, it was surprising that team’s with a -4.5 net loss indicator or higher, which was a great sampling than the -7.5 net or higher actually achieved a better percentage. While two teams managed to improve their record at the very top of the chart, none did in 6.5 or 6.0. In fact of teams that had a -6.0 net loss indicator or higher, only 2 managed to improve their record. In 2003 Navy which went from 8-5 to 10-2 and 2000 South Carolina which went from 8-4 to 9-3. The biggest drop offs were 1998 Tulane which had a -7.5 net loss indicator and went from 12-0 to 3-8. Interestingly in 1998 I called for Washington St to go from a Rose Bowl to last place in the Pac-10 – which they did and in the 2 year net loss indicator they were -6.0 and went from 10-2 to 3-8. Others that achieved large drop offs were 2008 Ball St which went from 12-2 to 2-10 with a -6 net loss indicator and 1996 Army which went from 10-2 to 4-7 with a -5.5 net loss indicator. Read more…

Slipping and Sliding College Football

June 23rd, 2011 No comments

2 Year Net Win Differential Success Rates

W
L
T
%
W
L
T
%
+7.5 or higher
1
0
0
100%
or higher
1
0
0
100%
+7
2
0
0
100%
or higher
3
0
0
100%
+6.5
4
0
0
100%
or higher
7
0
0
100%
+6
7
0
0
100%
or higher
14
0
0
100%
+5.5
10
2
2
86%
or higher
24
2
2
93%
+5
22
4
1
81%
or higher
46
6
3
89%
+4.5
24
10
3
73%
or higher
70
16
6
83%
+4
34
8
4
83%
or higher
104
24
10
83%
+3.5
38
14
8
77%
or higher
142
38
18
81%
+3
57
19
2
76%
or higher
199
57
20
79%
+2.5
44
22
2
68%
or higher
243
79
22
77%
+2
60
21
11
77%
or higher
303
100
33
75%
+1.5
75
46
13
66%
or higher
378
146
46
74%

Read more…

Operation: Phil Steele Pass It On! Plus Regionals, NFL and FCS Mag Info

June 22nd, 2011 No comments

OPERATION: PHIL STEELE PASS IT ON

Today I am proud to introduce a new promotion “OPERATION: PHIL STEELE PASS IT ON” for our brave men and women currently serving in the military. Any military personnel who purchases my 2011 College Football Preview Magazine will receive a second copy for one of your comrades absolutely FREE! This is my way of saying thank you for your service to this country.

You can purchase the 2011 College Football Preview for just $13.70 (includes Priority Mail shipping) by calling our office at 1-866-918-7711 and mention “OPERATION: PHIL STEELE PASS IT ON” to get that extra copy for FREE!

This offer is valid only to those with an AE, AP or active military address and you can choose between any of the 11 different covers including our very special Armed Forces Cover (featured below). Read more…

Which Teams Will Go 12-0 or 11-1?

June 21st, 2011 23 comments

If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set? Read more…

Golden Nugget Lines for 2011 Marquee Games!

June 20th, 2011 3 comments

PhilSteele.com is a pure college and pro information site. There is no gambling information on this site. Any mention of the point spread of a game is to let you know who was favored and expected to win when the games were played.

Every year I do about 300 radio shows and a popular question this time of year is “Who do you think will be favored when XXX and XXX meet?” This is asked by callers and the hosts of the radio stations. I can always speculate during June but there is a casino in Las Vegas that is the first to put out some lines on the upcoming games for the 2011 season.

As you know gambling in Las Vegas is legal and the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has had their numbers up for a week or so. Below is a list of all the marquee games that the Golden Nugget has posted for the upcoming year. Open is the opening line that they first put out and the Current has a number in it if it has changed since the open. The HOME TEAM IS IN ALL CAPS. This information is posted for news matter only. Read more…