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FBS vs FCS Forecasts for Every Game Week One!!!

MURRAY ST AT LOUISVILLE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MURRAY ST 95
233
21
1.1
-
LOUISVILLE 251
273
1
2.6
-
Louisville is 11-6 vs Murray St winning the last 3 meetings including their last in 2007, 73-10. Louisville is 7-0 vs FCS teams but LY only got by Eastern Kentucky 23-13, Murray St is 0-15 vs FBS teams since 1998 losing by a avg 50-10 but have never been held scoreless in that time. The Cardinals are in the 2nd year under HC Charlie Strong and return just 10 starters and must replace their top 2 QB’s, their top RB and their top 2 receivers. Murray St is led by 2nd year HC Chris Hatcher who led the Racers to their first winning season since 2004. They return 17 starters including QB Casey Brockman (2442 pass yds) and their top 3 rushers. Louisville just made a bowl last year at 6-6 and should give their full attention to in-state MSU. However, the Racers have the talent to make this game interesting.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 44 MURRAY ST 20

SOUTH CAROLINA ST AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SOUTH CAROLINA ST 90
123
19
2.5
-
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 136
288
30
3.0
-
CMU is 10-1 vs FCS foes since 1998 with a shutout in each of the last 2 years including beating MEAC member Hampton 33-0 last year. SCSU has played a total of 6 FBS opponents the last 4 years being shutout twice and losing by an avg 37-5. Last year they lost 41-10 to Geogia Tech but were only outgained 384-272. The Chippewas are off their first losing season since 2004. They return 14 starters and are in the 2nd year under HC Dan Enos. With a game at Kentucky on deck look for CMU to not look past SCSU especially since a 44-14 loss to North Dakota St in 2007 is still in recent memory. SCSU returns just 11 starters and has a big MEAC game on deck vs Bethune-Cookman and may be looking to get out of this game as healthy as possible.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 SOUTH CAROLINA ST 14

VILLANOVA AT TEMPLE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VILLANOVA 166
115
25
2.9
-
TEMPLE 154
300
30
1.5
-
This is the Third year of the Mayor’s Cup game and the teams have split those games with Villanova winning 27-24 in ‘09 and Temple winning 31-24 last year. Temple had a 456-357 yd edge in ‘09 and blew a 10 pt 4Q lead as they were -4 TO’s including a last minute int that allowed Villanova to kick the GW FG as time expired. LY Temple only had a 322-311 yd edge over the reigning FCS Champion. The Owls scored a FG with :03 left to take a 1 pt lead and then returned a missed pitch on Villanova’s KO return for a TD for a 7 pt win. Temple is just 3-3 vs FCS foes (1-2 vs Nova) since 1998. Villanova is 5-8 vs FBS but just 1-5 since ‘05. This will be the Owl’s new HC Steve Addazio’s first game and Temple returns 12 starters including their QB, their top 5 rushers and 7 of their top 8 receivers. Villanova is in a rebuilding year returning just 9 starters and lose their QB, and top 4 rushers including their all-purpose star Matt Szczur. The Owls will be looking to make an impressive start for their HC and look to have the experience edge but this is a local rivalry game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEMPLE 30 VILLANOVA 23

NEW HAMPSHIRE AT TOLEDO

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW HAMPSHIRE 96
160
25
2.2
-
TOLEDO 159
300
24
3.9
-
Toledo leads the all-time series 3-0 but they last met in 1949. While the Rockets are 8-0 vs FCS teams since 1999 they have not faced one since 2007, and in that game just got by Liberty 35-34 despite a 493-282 yd edge as they were -2 TO’s. New Hampshire is 7-3 vs FBS teams since 1998 and last year’s 38-16 loss at Pitt broke a streak of 5 straight wins over FBS opponents including beating MAC Foe Ball St 23-16 in 2009.The Rockets are in their 3rd year under HC Tim Beckman and return 18 starters including 2 experienced QB’s their top 6 rushers and top 7 receivers. New Hampshire is under 13 yr HC Sean McDonnell but returns just 10 starters. While NH has reloaded several times under McDonnell this year they lose their top QB, 3 of their top 5 rushers and 2 of their top 3 receivers. Toledo does have a big game vs Ohio State on deck and has lost 5 straight season openers and 4 of 5 home openers but their last win was opening win was over FCS opp Western Illinois in ‘05. NH is 5-1 in season openers including upsets of Northwestern (‘06) and Army (‘08).

PHIL’S FORECAST: TOLEDO 38 NEW HAMPSHIRE 24

FORDHAM AT CONNECTICUT

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FORDHAM 53
145
7
2.3
-
CONNECTICUT 262
310
43
1.0
-
Fordham leads the series 1-0 but that meeting was in 1915. Fordam was a Major college until dropping football in 1954 (last meeting vs FBS tm). The Rams were full members of their non-scholarship Patriot League from 1990-2009 but in 2010 became a associate member as they began giving scholarships so they could play FBS teams (non-scholarship tms do not count for bowl eligibility). The Huskies are 8-1 vs FCS opponents since moving up to the FBS in 2001. They have won 8 straight by an avg 41 ppg including the last 7 by 32+ pts each. While the Huskies clearly did not look past FCS oppenents under HC Randy Edsell who guided Connecticut in their transition from the FCS to the FBS this will be the first game for new HC Paul Pasqualoni, who was 1-0 vs FCS in his 14Y as HC at Syracuse. LY Fordam largest road crowd was 10,891 while Connecticut’s smallest home crowd was 37,359 so their may be an added awe factor here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CONNECTICUT 52 FORDHAM 7

WESTERN CAROLINA AT GEORGIA TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WESTERN CAROLINA 48
155
9
2.1
-
GEORGIA TECH 427
200
43
2.7
-
GT is 4-0 all-time vs WCU including a 45-26 win in their last meeting in 1994. GT is 8-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 including a 41-10 win over South Carolina St LY. WCU has lost 15 straight vs FBS opponents since 1998 including 6 shutouts and have scored over 10 pts just twice in that period. WCU will have the whole of Fall camp to prepare for the option that 2 of their first 3 oppenents will run (GT & GSU) and held a playoff bound Georgia Southern team to just 28 pts last year. Both teams are under 4th year HC’s and are coming off losing seasons. GT returns just 12 starters and must replace their top 2 rushers including QB Joshua Nesbitt. WCU returns 15 starters including all their top skill players on offense but have averaged under 18 ppg the last 3 seasons. After an early upset loss to Kansas last year, GT will not likely look past anyone including the Catamounts.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 49 WESTERN CAROLINA 7

NC CENTRAL AT RUTGERS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NC CENTRAL -6
113
1
3.0
-
RUTGERS 256
318
45
1.8
-
First meeting. Rutgers is 9-2 since 1998 vs FCS teams and since a 35-24 loss to New Hampshire in ‘04 have won 7 straight by an avg of 44-3 including 4 shutouts. NCCU which is in just their 5th year at the FCS level is 0-2 vs FBS teams since losing 50-14 to WKU in ‘07 and 49-14 to Duke in ‘09. NCCU joins the MEAC this year and Rutgers is 7-0 vs the MEAC including a 31-0 win over Norfolk St last year. Both teams return 14 starters but NCCU is under 1st year HC Henry Frazier while Rutgers HC Greg Schiano returns for his 11th season. Look for Rutgers to show little mercy here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 45 NC CENTRAL 0

MONTANA ST AT UTAH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MONTANA ST 57
243
16
1.9
-
UTAH 234
318
40
2.1
-
Utah leads the series 9-0 but their last game was a 30-12 win in 1982. Utah has played just 2 FCS teams since ‘06 (2-0) including a 37-21 win over Big Sky Member Weber St in ‘08. Montana St is 1-13 vs FBS teams since 1998 but upset Colorado 19-10 in ‘06 and only lost 23-22 to Washington St last year despite a 407-316 yd edge. Utah does have their PAC-12 opener on deck vs conf power USC but should not look past last year’s Big Sky Co-Champ MSU that is coming off their 9th straight winning season. Both teams return just 12 starters but MSU does return co-BSC OPOY QB DeNarius McGhee who threw for 3,163 yds with a 23-6 ratio.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 38 MONTANA ST 17

UC DAVIS AT ARIZONA ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UC DAVIS -17
160
7
1.0
-
ARIZONA ST 237
310
38
3.0
-
ASU won the only previous meeting 21-13 in 1940. The Sun Devils are 7-0 vs FCS teams since 2002 including last year when they beat Portland St 54-9 and Northern Arizona 41-20. UC Davis is 2-7 since 1997 vs FBS foes including beating PAC-10 member Stanford 20-17 in ‘05 and San Jose St 14-13 last year. However, they also lost 52-3 to California last year. ASU finished 6-6 last year but were not bowl eligible as 2 of their wins were over FCS foes. ASU returns 15 starters but lose their QB and top WR. UC Davis returns 16 starters including QB Randy Wright but lose their top 2 receivers. The Sun Devils do have a Friday Night game vs Missouri on deck but can not afford to look past anyone as they try for their first winning season in 4 years.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA ST 38 UC DAVIS 7

YOUNGSTOWN ST AT MICHIGAN ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
YOUNGSTOWN ST 123
155
19
1.1
-
MICHIGAN ST 242
365
47
2.1
-
First meeting. MSU has faced just 2 FCS opponents since 1950, winning 44-3 over Montana St in ‘09 and 45-7 over Northern Colorado last year. YSU is 3-14 vs FBS oppenents since 1997 but have lost 9 straight since beating Kent St 26-20 in 2000. Last year they lost 44-14 to Big Ten member Penn St being outgained 371-264. However those 14 ptS were more than they combined to score in the previous 5 FBS games (shut-out twice). MSU only has a home game vs FAU on deck so should not look past the Penguins. While YSU does return more starters (14) , MSU returns a solid core of 12 including QB Cousins and their top 6 rushers. MSU avg 236 ypg rushing (4.5 ypc) last year while YSU allowed 215 ypg (4.7).

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 52 YOUNGSTOWN ST 14

TENNESSEE TECH AT IOWA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE TECH 75
125
10
1.8
-
IOWA 290
240
39
2.8
-
First Meeting. Iowa has won 10 straight home openers by an avg 40-6. Iowa is 6-0 vs FCS teams since 1997, winning 5 by 24+ pts but just escaped Northern Iowa 17-16 in 2009. They did beat OVC member Eastern Illinois 37-7 last year with a 435-157 yard edge. TTU is 0-19 vs FBS teams since 1997 losing 18 by 24+ pts (allowing 35+ in each) with a 21-7 loss to USF in ‘04 being their only close game. Last year TTU was outgained 519-187 vs Arkansas losing 44-3 and 452-150 by TCU losing 62-7. While TTU returns 18 starters, Iowa returns just 9 but that may mean the starters will play longer to gain experience. Iowa does have rival Iowa St on deck but after their close call in 2009 will not get caught looking past TTU.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 42 TENNESSEE TECH 7

INDIANA ST AT PENN ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANA ST 58
115
10
1.5
-
PENN ST 287
295
44
2.9
-
First Meeting. Penn St has won 9 straight home openers by an avg 28 ppg. Penn St is 4-0 vs FCS teams since 2006 with the closest game being a 44-14 win over MVFC members Youngstown St. Indiana St had just 2 wins from 2005-2009 but went 6-5 LY and only trailed Cincinnati 12-7 at HT before losing 40-7 (only outgained 393-254). The Sycamores are 1-19 vs FBS foes since 1998 with that 1 win coming vs Eastern Michigan 21-14 in 2001. ISU returns 18 starters but Penn St returns 14 of their own. The Lions do have a home game vs Alabama on deck but did not look past YSU last year with a road game vs Alabama on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 45 INDIANA ST 7

APPALACHIAN ST AT VIRGINIA TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
APPALACHIAN ST 79
103
12
2.5
-
VIRGINIA TECH 272
263
38
2.2
-
VT is 3-0 vs Appalachian St but the last game was in 1982 (34-0). While VT is 6-1 vs FCS opponents since 1999 including 4 shut outs but lost 21-16 to James Madison last year coming off a 33-30 loss to Boise St. ASU is 3-15 vs FBS foes but is of course known for their 34-32 defeat of #5 Michigan in 2007. While they came close vs East Carolina (29-24) in 2009 they lost to LSU 41-13 in ‘08 and Florida 48-10 last year being outgained by an avg 503-257 in those two games. VT returns 12 starters and must replace QB Tyrod Taylor and will likely looking to get everything up to speed on both sides of the ball. They only have a road trip to East Carolina on deck and after last years loss to JMU will give the extra reasons to give the Mountaineers their full attention. ASU also returns just 12 starters but are led by AA QB DeAndre Presley, who had 2,631 yds passing and 1,039 yds rushing last year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 42 APPALACHIAN ST 10

SOUTH DAKOTA AT AIR FORCE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SOUTH DAKOTA 118
130
13
1.2
-
AIR FORCE 322
240
36
2.4
-
First Meeting. Air Force is 10-0 vs FCS teams since 1997 by an avg 45-7 including 3 shutouts. Last year they beat Northwestern St 65-21 with a 616-311 yd edge. South Dakota has played just 2 FBS teams since moving up to the FBS. Both were last year when they lost to UCF 38-7 but then shocked Minnesota 41-38 the following week only being outgained 462-444. AF does have TCU on deck but has shown a tendency to go full out in these games as they have scored 41+ pts in 7 of their last 8 vs FCS foes. South Dakota does return 18 starters this year but Air Force’s 14 returning starters are their most in over 7 years. The Coyotes face 2 FBS foes and reigning FCS Champion Eastern Washington in 3 of their first 4 games and must pace themselves for the Great West conferences’ final season.

PHIL’S FORECAST: AIR FORCE 45 SOUTH DAKOTA 10

DELAWARE AT NAVY

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DELAWARE 173
180
23
1.9
-
NAVY 302
140
23
1.5
-
Navy is just 8-7 vs Delaware including just 2-2 vs the Blue Hens since 2003. Navy won the last meeting in 2009 35-18 getting revenge for a 59-52 loss in 2007 despite being out gained 370-320. Navy is 10-2 vs FCS teams since 1997 (both losses to UD) but last year just got by Georgia Southern 13-7 with just a 193-109 yd edge. UD is 2-3 vs FBS teams since 2003 with their last gm vs Navy. Both teams return just 10 starters and will have new QB’s running the offense. UD is coming off a 20-19 loss in the FCS Championship game, while Navy is off a 35-14 bowl loss. The Midshipmen only have a road trip to Western Kentucky on deck, so should be focused here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NAVY 31 DELWARE 21

CHATTANOOGA AT NEBRASKA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHATTANOOGA 22
183
11
2.7
-
NEBRASKA 234
273
43
2.2
First meeting. Nebraska has not lost a home opener since 1985. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 vs FCS teams since 2002 but only beat South Dakota St 17-3 last year. Chattanooga is 0-10 vs FBS foes since 1999 losing by an avg 47-16. Last year the Mocs lost to Arkansas 62-24 being outgained 628-334. Nebraska brings back 12 starters including QB Taylor Martinez, who threw for 1,631 and was the Cornhuskers #2 rusher (965, 6.0) with 12 rushing TD’s. Chattanooga returns 13 starters led by former Tennessee transfer BJ Coleman, who threw for 2,996 with a 26-13 ratio. Nebraska has a home game vs feisty Fresno St on deck but after last year’s game vs an FCS foe was closer than expected look for them to give Chattanooga their full attention.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 45 CHATTANOOGA 10

JAMES MADISON AT NORTH CAROLINA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAMES MADISON 100
68
9
1.9
-
NORTH CAROLINA 151
253
23
2.7
-
North Carolina won the only previous meeting 37-14 in 2007, which was former HC Butch Davis’ first win at NC. NC is 7-0 vs FBS foes since 2004, but did lose to Furman in 1999. However, last year they just got by CAA member William & Mary 21-17 despite a 421-286 yard edge. James Madison is 2-8 vs Current FBS opponents since 1997 including last year’s stunning upset of ACC member Virginia tech 21-16. They also only lost to Maryland 38-35 in 2009. NC returns 13 starters but must replace their top QB and top 3 rushers and of course lost HC Butch Davis. James Madison also must replace their top QB and top 3 rushers but added Kansas St transfer QB Billy Cosh (PS#45) and return 17 starters along with 13th year HC Mickey Matthews. With all the turmoil surrounding the program NC needs an opening win here and with JMU’s win last year the new coaching staff should have little problem motivating the team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 23 JAMES MADISON 9

SE LOUISIANA AT TULANE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SE LOUISIANA 74
235
21
2.1
-
TULANE 226
340
48
1.8
-
Tulane leads the all-time series 5-0 but the last 3 have been decided by a 8 points or less. Last year Tulane won 27-21 and were outgained 266-252 but never trailed and led by DD in the 4Q. Tulane is 8-0 vs FCS foes since 2001 but only 3 of those were by over 10 pts. SE Louisiana is 0-13 vs FBS foes since 2003 and for the 5the time in 6 years will be facing 2+ FBS in the same season. Last year besides their 6 pt loss to Tulane they also only lost to ULM 21-20. Tulane returns 14 starters led by QB Ryan Griffin, who threw for 2,371 last year. SE Louisiana returns just 8 starters and while their lose their starting QB, they add Mississippi transfer QB Nathan Stanley (PS#36). While Tulane is not known for overpowering in state FCS teams this year looks to be their chance to put up some numbers against a team facing a major rebuilding season.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TULANE 44 SE LOUISIANA 20

SACRAMENTO ST AT OREGON ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SACRAMENTO ST 107
178
21
1.3
-
OREGON ST 139
313
35
2.6
-
Oregon St won the only previous meeting 40-7 in 2003. The Beavers are 6-0 vs FCS opponents since 1999 winning the last 5 by and avg 42-10 including a 34-7 win over Big Sky member Portland St. Sacramento St is 0-10 vs FBS foes and besides a 23-20 loss to Colorado St in 2008 has lost each by 21+ pts including 8 by 33+ pts. Last year Stanford manhandled the Hornets 52-17 with a 529-157 yard edge. OSU returns 12 starters led by QB Ryan Katz, who threw for 2,401 but must replace a 1000 yd rusher. Sacramento St returns 14 starters led by QB Jeff Fleming, who threw for 2,044 along with top rusher Bryan Hilliard (883, 4.5). The Beavers have a big road game at Wisconsin on deck and after an easy FCS win last year may look past a much improved Hornets team that had 3 net close losses last year including losing to eventual FCS Champ Eastern Washington by just 4. While Sacramento St may not be up to the outright upset but look for them to keep it closer then expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON ST 38 SACRAMENTO ST 21

IDAHO ST AT WASHINGTON ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IDAHO ST 24
155
14
2.2
-
WASHINGTON ST 141
315
35
3.1
-
First Meeting. Washington St is 5-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 but just got by Big Sky Member, Montana St 23-22 last year and were outgained 407-316. Idaho St is 0-5 vs FBS foes since 1998 including losing to Arizona St and Oklahoma by a combined 114-3 in 2009 and being outgained by a combined 971-81 yards. WSU HC Paul Wulff is a former Big Sky HC, going 5-3 vs ISU. The Cougars return 15 starters including QB Jeff Tuel, who threw for 2,780 yds last year. ISU returns just 11 starters and must replace their top QB and rusher. The Bengals are under new HC Mike Kramer who brought in over 10 transfers in the hope of turning things around quickly. Still Washington St has just 5 combined wins the last 3 years and will not look past anyone.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON ST 41 IDAHO ST 10

LIBERTY AT NC STATE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LIBERTY 43
230
20
2.5
-
NC STATE 192
330
42
1.9
-
First meeting. NC State is 12-0 vs FCS foes since 1999, winning their last 3 by an avg 53-9 outgaining opp by at least 264 ypg in each. Liberty is 2-12 vs FBS foes including a 27-23 win over Ball St last year. NC State has a conference road game at Wake Forest but return just 13 starters, so should be looking to get the team on the same page as they must break in a new starting QB. Liberty also returns 13 starters but are led by the Big South OPOY QB Mike Brown, who threw for 2,956 and rushed for 854 yds. The Flames have the offense to keep them in the game but the Wolfpack returns 8 starters to a defenses that allows just 21.3 ppg last year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NC STATE 48 LIBERTY 20

MONTANA AT TENNESSEE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MONTANA 72
113
11
3.3
-
TENNESSEE 219
263
38
2.8
-
First meeting. Tennessee has faced just 1 FCS opponent since 1984 and that was last year when they beat UT-Martin 50-0. Montana is 4-5 vs FBS opponents but all 4 wins are over Idaho, the last in 2003. They lost their last 2 both vs BCS foes 47-14 to Oregon in 2005 and 41-7 to Iowa in 2006. Tennessee returns 13 starters and AREunder 2nd year HC Derek Dooley. The Grizzlies return 14 starters under 2nd year HC Robin Pflugrad. They are coming off a disappointing 7-4 season that saw their streak of 17 straight playoff appearances come to an end. While Tennessee made a bowl last year they had their 2nd losing season in 3 years and so will not take any game lightly especially vs historical FCS powerhouse Montana.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 45 MONTANA 10

WILLIAM & MARY AT VIRGINIA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WILLIAM & MARY 145
148
22
0.8
-
VIRGINIA 191
268
26
2.4
-
Virginia leads the series 26-6-1 including 6-1 since 1998 but W&M won the last meeting in 2009, 26-14 with a 309-268 yd edge. Virginia is 6-1 vs FCS teams since 1997 including beating CAA member Richmond 34-13 last year (W&M beat UR 41-3 LY). William & Mary is 2-12 vs FBS opponents since 1998 but only lost to North Carolina 21-17 last year but were outgained 421-286. Virginia returns 18 starters and are in the 2nd year under former CAA HC Mike London. W&M returns 12 starters but get back former North Carolina transfer QB Michael Paulus (PS#6), who was lost early in the season last year to injury. Virginia will give W&M their full attention but this should be a close game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA 27 WILLIAM & MARY 23

TEXAS ST AT TEXAS TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS ST 92
138
15
1.6
-
TEXAS TECH 279
348
49
2.3
-
First Meeting. Texas Tech is 17-1 in home openers. TT is 9-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 winning by an avg 61-9 outgaining each by at least 210 yds per game. Lasy year they beat Weber St 64-21 with a 669-459 yd edge. Texas St is 1-11 vs FBS teams since 2000 with their 1 win coming vs ULM 27-7 in 2000. Last year they lost to Houston 68-28 but were only outgained 497-345. TT returns 14 starters and are in the 2nd year under former HC Tommy Tuberville. Texas St returns 12 starters but are in the 1st year under HC Dennis Franchione. TT should have little trouble getting up for an instate school that will be moving up to the WAC next year especially since both HC’s faced each other when both were in the SEC.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 49 TEXAS ST 14

MISSOURI ST AT ARKANSAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI ST 92
103
8
2.2
-
ARKANSAS 219
438
51
1.5
-

Arkansas is 6-0 vs MSU including a 48-10 win in 2009. Arkansas is 8-0 vs FCS teams since 2000 winning by an avg 43-12 including a 44-3 win over Tenn Tech last year. Missouri St is 0-10 vs FBS teams since 2000 including a 48-24 loss to Kansas St last year but they wereonly outgained 496-447 in that loss. The Razorbacks return 13 starters and have to replace QB Ryan Mallett. Missouri St returns just 9 starters and also have to replace their QB. Arkansas only has New Mexico on deck and so should be looking to gain confidence for their new QB.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 56 MISSOURI ST 7

AUSTIN PEAY AT CINCINNATI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUSTIN PEAY 68
40
0
2.0
-
CINCINNATI 257
350
51
3.4
-
Cincinnati is 4-0 vs Austin Peay winning by an avg 42-9 including a 42-10 win in their last meeting in 1993. Cincy is 7-0 vs FCS teams since 2003 including a 40-7 win over Indiana St last year. Austin Peay has faced just 2 FBS opponents since 2003 and both were last year as they lost to Middle Tennessee 56-33 and Wisconsin 70-3 giving up 600+ yds in each game. The Bearcats return 15 starters and are now in the 2nd year under HC Butch Jones. The Governors return 16 starters but were just 2-9 last year. Cincy does have a road game at Tennessee on deck but should be able to get their offense running on all cylinders.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 51 AUSTIN PEAY 0

RICHMOND AT DUKE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
RICHMOND 144
175
23
1.2
-
DUKE 196
340
37
3.2
-
Duke is 9-3 vs Richmond but lost the last 2 meetings 24-16 in ‘09 and 13-0 in ‘06. Duke is 7-2 vs FCS teams including a 41-27 win over Elon last year. Richmond is just 2-9 vs FBS foes since 2000 including a 34-13 loss to Virginia last year. Duke returns 14 starters including QB Sean Renfree, who threw for 3,131 last year. Richmond returns 13 starters led by former USC transfer QB Aaron Corp (PS#9), who was lost after 5 starts last year. The Spiders must deal with the recent resignation of HC Latrell Scott. With that 2009 loss still fresh in their memories look for the Blue Devils to look for some revenge here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DUKE 37 RICHMOND 20

HOWARD AT EASTERN MICHIGAN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOWARD 96
158
25
2.3
-
EASTERN MICHIGAN 185
253
44
4.0
-
Eastern Michigan won their only prior meeting 38-15 in 2007. After not facing an FCS opponent since a 52-0 win over Indiana St in the 2008 opener, the Eagles have 2 this season. Howard is 0-4 vs FBS foes since 2003 losing by an avg 51-9 including a 45-7 loss to Rutgers in 2009. The Eagles return 13 starters including QB Alex Gillett who threw for 1,633 and rushed for a team best 766 yds. They are in the 3rd season under HC Ron English and need to show some improvement after going a combined 2-22 in his first 2 seasons. Howard returns 20 starters but have a new HC and are switching their offense. Eastern Michigan needs to start the season with 2 wins over FCS foes as they then must face Michigan and Penn St in back-to-back weeks.

PHIL’S FORECAST: EASTERN MICHIGAN 49 HOWARD 14

NORTHERN IOWA AT IOWA ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NORTHERN IOWA 175
103
19
1.5
-
IOWA ST 136
238
19
3.3
-
Iowa St leads the series 19-4-3. Last year took revenge for a 2007, 24-13 loss to UNI as they won 27-0 thanks to being +5 TO’s as they were actually outgained 320-210. ISU is 10-1 vs FCS teams since 1999. UNI is 4-11 vs FBS teams since 1997 and only lost to #22 Iowa 17-16 in 2009. Iowa St is in the 3rd year under HC Paul Rhoads but return just 12 starters and must replace their QB, top 2 rushers and top 2 receivers. UNI is returns 18 starters the most here in a long, long time. Their last game was an upset loss at home to Lehigh in the playoffs and so they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. While ISU had rival Iowa on deck they will need to be prepared for a hard fought game as UNI has the talent to pull off the upset here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA ST 23 NORTHERN IOWA 20

MCNEESE ST AT KANSAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MCNEESE ST 150
128
21
1.3
-
KANSAS 216
263
32
1.8
-
First meeting. Kansas is 10-1 vs FCS opponents but lost last year 6-3 to North Dakota St despite a 293-168 yd edge. McNeese St is 3-11 vs FBS teams since 2000 but lost last year to LSU 32-10. Kansas return 15 starters and are in the 2nd year under HC Turner Gill. McNeese St returns just 9 starters and must replace former Tulsa transfer QB Jacob Bower but bring in former North Texas QB Riley Dodge. Kansas can not afford a loss here and should be able to get past a talented but rebuilding Cowboys.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 34 MCNEESE ST 20

EASTERN KENTUCKY AT KANSAS ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
EASTERN KENTUCKY 118
110
17
1.0
-
KANSAS ST 237
285
36
2.4
-
First meeting. Kansas St has won 21 straight home openers. KSU is 10-0 vs FCS teams winning by an avg 42-13 including a 48-24 win over Missouri St last year. Eastern Kentucky is 0-16 vs FBS teams since 1998 but only lost to Indiana 19-13 in ‘09 and to Louisville 23-13 last year. KSU returns 13 starters but must replace their top QB, top RB and top WR. EKU returns 16 starters under 4th year HC Dean Hood. KSU has a bye on deck and should hold nothing back but EKU should be able to give them a good game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS ST 45 EASTERN KENTUCKY 17

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN AT UCF

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 38
85
3
3.9
-
UCF 317
280
56
1.6
-
First meeting. UCF is 14-0 vs FCS teams since 1997 including a 38-7 win over South Dakota last year. CSU is 0-8 vs FBS teams since 2002 including a 66-7 loss to Hawaii and a 49-21 loss to Kentucky last year. UCF returns just 10 starters this year but do return QB Jeff Godfrey and their top 7 rushers. Charleston Southern returns just 11 starters from a team that was just 3-8 last year. The Buccaneers offense returns just 4 starters and must replace their QB, their top 2 rushers and their top 7 receivers. UCF does have a home game vs Boston College on deck but UCF should have little trouble getting their new starters some experience.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UCF 45 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 3

EASTERN WASHINGTON AT WASHINGTON

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
EASTERN WASHINGTON 100
213
22
1.1
-
WASHINGTON 226
323
32
3.2
-
First meeting. Washington has not played a current FCS team since 1951. Eastern Washington is 1-10 vs current FBS teams since 2001 but has lost 10 straight including 49-24 to Nevada last year but were only outgained 553-432. Washington is in the 3rd year under HC Steve Sarkisian and returns 5 starters but must replace QB Jake Locker. Eastern Washington is coming off an FCS Championship season and return 14 starters including former SMU transfer QB Bo levi Mitchell, who threw for 3,496 yds. They do lose their top rusher Taiwan Jones who was a #4 DC but add in Washington transfer Demitrius Bronson (PS#69). Washington is a much improved team and after just making a bowl game at 6-6 last year will be prepared for the in-state reigning FCS Champion.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 34 EASTERN WASHINGTON 17

ELON AT WASHINGTON

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ELON 63
268
22
1.1
-
VANDERBILT 258
243
31
2.4
-
First meeting. Vanderbilt is 11-0 vs FCS teams since 1999 winning by an avg 40-11 including a 16-0 win over Richmond in 2008 and a 45-0 win over Western Carolina in 2009. Elon has faced just 3 FCS teams all since 2007 losing all 3 by an avg 35-16 including a 41-27 loss to Duke last year. Vandy returns 19 starters but were just 2-10 last year and are under a new HC in James Franklin. Elon return just 10 starters and is also under a new HC in Jason Swepson. Vandy does not look past anyone and will be working on establishing their new systems.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VANDERBILT 37 ELON 20

STONY BROOK AT UTEP

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STONY BROOK 140
148
21
1.1
-
UTEP 121
228
24
3.6
-
First meeting. UTEP is 7-1 vs FCS teams since 2001 but faced just one since 2008 winning 31-10 over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last year. Stony Brook has faced just 1 FBS opponent losing 59-14 to USF last year. UTEP returns just 11 starters this year and while they return 9 starters on defense they did allow 184 ypg rushing last year. Stony Brook returns 15 starters including two RB’s who each had a 1000+ yds rushing and get back a 1,000 yd rusher from 2009 who missed last season. SB is our pick to win the Big South this year and could give UTEP a “Run” for their money.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTEP 24 STONY BROOK 21

WEBER ST AT WYOMING

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEBER ST 161
215
22
2.3
-
WYOMING 184
245
28
1.9
-
Wyoming leads the series 3-0 but only won 29-22 in 2009. Wyoming is 10-0 vs FCS opponents since 1997. However, they have only won their last 3 by 8 pts of less including a 28-20 win last year over Southern Utah. Weber St is 0-18 vs FBS teams since 1997 playing 2 in each of the last 3 years. Last year they lost to Boston College 38-20 and Texas Tech 64-21. Wyoming is in the 3rd year under HC Dave Christensen and returns 14 starters but must replace their QB and top 2 receivers. Weber St returns just 13 starters and must replace their QB, top 2 rushers and top 3 receivers. Wyoming only has Texas St on deck and after their close game in ‘09.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WYOMING 30 WEBER ST 20

CAL POLY AT SAN DIEGO ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAL POLY 203
58
18
2.0
-
SAN DIEGO ST 188
368
41
2.5
-
San Diego St only leads the series 13-11 and Cal Poly won the last 2 meetings 29-27 in ‘08 and 16-14 in ‘06. San Diego St is 7-2 vs FCS teams since 2001 including a 47-0 win over Nicholls St last year. Cal Poly is 4-10 vs FBS teams since 1997 with last years 21 pt loss being the biggest margin since 2002. SDSU returns 13 starters including QB Ryan Lindley (3830 pass yds) and RB Ronnie Hillman (1532 rush yds). They bring in a new HC in Rocky Long. Cal Poly returns 14 starters and are in their 3rd season under HC Tim Walsh. With a long trip out east to Army on deck expect SDSU to five their full attention to in-state Cal Poly.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO ST 41 CAL POLY 17

NORTHERN ARIZONA AT ARIZONA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NORTHERN ARIZONA 65
158
13
2.0
-
ARIZONA 136
398
38
1.9
-
Arizona leads the series 10-1 (loss in 1932) including a 34-14 win in their last meeting in 2009. Arizona is 7-0 vs FCS foes since 2002 with 5 of those games vs NAU. Northern Arizona is 0-15 vs FBS foes since 1997 losing the last 6 by an avg 20 ppg but those were all vs BCS teams. Arizona returns just 10 starters but are led by QB Nick Foles, who threw for 3,191 yds last year. Northern Arizona returns just 9 starters and must replace QB Michael Herrick, who threw for 2,061 last year. Arizona does have a trip to Oklahoma St on deck but will need to get their new starters some experience against their in-state foe.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 35 NORTHERN ARIZONA 14

 

College Football Starts Tomorrow!!!

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  • Guest

    Elon at Washington should be Elon at Vanderbilt.

  • Odavida

    What about t Michigan game

  • JEFFREY SKLAN

    LET THE GAMES BEGIN. THANKS, PHIL