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Week 5 Selections for Every College Game!!

September 30th, 2011 2 comments

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For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…

Week 5 Surprise College Fantasy

September 29th, 2011 1 comment

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 4-3-2 including both of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 19-13-7 on the picks so far this season.

QUARTERBACKS:

My QB’s of the Week: Keith Price, Washington and Nate Isham, Louisiana Tech Read more…

Week 5 Top 25 Forecasts

September 28th, 2011 3 comments

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 76-9 (89%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU VS KENTUCKY

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KENTUCKY 35
125
6
3.5
-
LSU
245
195
41
1.5
-

LSU is off its 3rd AG in 4W and 3rd game vs a ranked opp already. The key to this game might be when it was announced LW that the game will kickoff at 11:21 am locally and keep in mind under Miles, at home, LSU is 28-1 in night gms while they are just 8-4 in day gms. UK has been shutout in its L/2 trips to Death Valley (‘00 and ‘06, avg score 42-0, -131 ypg). In the last gm (‘07) #1 LSU had a 4 gm series win streak snapped losing in 3OT on the road. LW LSU finished up their impressive month of Sept with a 47-21 win over WV as they scored the final 20 pts but did get outgained 533-366. QB Lee has made everyone forget about Jefferson avg 156 ypg (64%) with a 6-1 ratio. UK is off to a poor 2-2 start being outgained by an avg of 366-281. QB Newton is avg 148 ypg (54%) with a 5-6 ratio and the big problem has been the run gm avg just 123 (3.6). LSU has a big game vs Florida on deck but it will be tough seeing the Cats offense moving vs our #2 defense.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  LSU 38 KENTUCKY 10 Read more…

Week 4 News and Notes Part 2

September 27th, 2011 No comments

Auburn HC Chizik talked about a sense of urgency to get better but had a poor 1H vs a Florida Atl team that came in avg 98 ypg. The first play of the game Auburn was int’d and FAU got a FG. Later, FAU’s woeful offense went 51/13pl for a 43 yd FG to get within 10-6 after Auburn had scored on 60 and 46 yd drives for a TD and FG. AU punted their next 2 drives then on 4&2 were SOD at the FAU41 and only led 10-6 at the half. AU threatened to blow it open in the 3Q as they got a 25 yd IR TD then after FAU was SOD at the AU34, 5pl later AU got a 51 yd screen pass to McCalebb for a TD, 24-6. FAU was int’d and ret’d to the 19 but AU settled for a 31 yd FG then AU went 41/11pl and settled for a 37 yd FG and led 30-6 after 3Q’s. FAU amazingly drove 78/11pl to get a TD and 2 pt conversion with 9:26 left on what would be their very first TD of the entire season, 30-14 and Aub missed a 47 yd FG on their next drive. Read more…

Week 4 Top 25 Team Performances Plus News and Notes Part 1

September 26th, 2011 1 comment

During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.

As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.

With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them. Read more…

Week 3 Pro Selections

September 26th, 2011 1 comment

SAN FRANCISCO AT CINCINNATI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 80
170
22
2.3
#6
CINCINNATI 92
265
24
2.3
#16

Harbaugh has had the benefit of 2 home games to ease his team into his new schemes. CIN isn’t expected to have much of a crowd edge as Dalton’s home opener will be their 5th straight non-sellout. CIN was in a good spot LW vs a DEN team off a MNF loss that was severely injury depleted. The Bengals didn’t get off to a good start getting outFD 13-4 and outgained 169-93 in the 1H. CIN adjusted at halftime as Dalton put up 332 yds (66%) with 2 TD’s in a losing effort. SF failed to take advantage of an injury depleted DAL defense travelling on the 2nd straight week losing in OT. SF was outgained 472-206 at home and Smith has failed to stretch the field at this point (152 ypg 71% 2-1) and Gore has been ineffective with 106 yds total (2.5) as SEA and DAL stacked the line. CIN will only get better as the year goes on and I’ll call for them by 3 in their home debut.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 17 SAN FRANCISCO 14 Read more…

Week 4 Selections for Every Game

September 23rd, 2011 2 comments

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…

Week 4 Surprise College Fantasy Picks

September 22nd, 2011 No comments

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 6-2-2 for the second week in a row including all three of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 15-10-5 on the picks so far this season.

QUARTERBACKS:

My QB’s of the Week: Dominique Davis, East Carolina and JJ McDermott, SMU Read more…

Week 4 Top 25 Forecasts

September 21st, 2011 1 comment

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 20-3 (87%) and so far this season I am 59-7 (89%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 OKLAHOMA VS MISSOURI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI 102
190
18
2.6
-
OKLAHOMA
163
365
35
2.0

Mizzou hasn’t won in Norman S/’66 dropping 17 str trips. Oklahoma is playing with legitimate revenge as they had 3 trips inside the MO15 result in 0 pts and allowed a KR TD as ESPN Gameday was on hand for the night game that sent the #1 team down. LW OU proved their mettle at #5 FSU by shaking off a 56 yd TD pass which tied the gm with 9:32 left and promptly driving 83/8pl for a TD and adding an insurance FG with 2:01 left to beat the Seminoles. QB Jones (287 ypg, 72%, 2-2) has a weapon in the nation’s #2 rec Broyles (21 rec) but an improved run gm has been the difference spearheaded by walk-on Whaley (202, 5.2). Aggressive Sooners D has 9 sks and has forced 6 TO’s in 2 gms. MO a school record 744-44 yd and 30-1 FD edges in their 69-0 annihilation of FCS W IL. 3rd string TB (1st 2 out) Josey ran for 263 yd (18.8) in the 1H as the Tigers roared out to a 42-0 HT lead. DE Jacquies Smith (out L/2 with elbow inj) may return TW. OU has big edges (#3-28 off, #3-22 D and #12-51 ST) all around and I think the Sooners get their revenge in relatively easy fashion.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  OKLAHOMA 45 MISSOURI 17

 

Read more…

Week 3 News and Notes Part 2

September 20th, 2011 No comments

In 2 of the first 3 series Fresno St got an 86 yd TD pass and 52 yd TD pass to jump out to a 14-0 lead. North Dakota pulled within 21-9 at the half and had a 6-5 FD edge. In the 2H ND took the lead on a TD with :09 left in the 3Q, 22-21. FSU answered with a 71/12pl drive getting a TD with 9:14 left for the lead, 27-22. ND got 3 FD’s but at the FSU42 opted to punt on 4&15 and went 31 yds to the 11 with 3:14 left. FSU got 1 FD but ND had a shot on 3&12, Robbie Rouse ripped off an 18 run and FSU took a knee.

When I first looked at the boxscore of Oklahoma St/Tulsa it looked like OSU got out to a huge lead then just let up. They did get a major break early in the game. Tulsa’s QB GJ Kinne ran 23 yards for a FD to the 50 and was hit late. That drew a 15 yd penalty but unfortunately they lost Kinne for the rest of the game. His backup, Kalen Henderson rushed 13 times for 5 yards and hit 6-20-104 with 3 int’s. OSU had 3 TD drives off TO’s. Surprisingly OSU only finished with 32-27 FD and 543-482 yd edges although TU did gain 82 yards on their final 2 drives and their final drive ended on an int in the EZ from the 17. This was an extremely odd game as well as it was orig supposed to start at 9:10 but it was delayed until 12:16 am and didn’t finish until 3:35 am! Coach Gundy said “there comes a certain point in the middle of the morning that your body is not functioning”. Read more…