Week 4 Surprise College Fantasy Picks
Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.
This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 6-2-2 for the second week in a row including all three of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 15-10-5 on the picks so far this season.
My QB’s of the Week: Dominique Davis, East Carolina and JJ McDermott, SMU
Dominique Davis, East Carolina-Vs two solid defenses Davis has completed 61% of his passes for 387 yds with a 4-2 ratio but now takes on a UAB defense that has allowed 526 ypg and should easily put forth his best performance of the season.
JJ McDermott, SMU-This is a name you my not be familiar with but McDermott has taken over for Kyle Padron and his completing 58% of his passes for 776 yards and a 1-2 ratio. This week he takes on a Memphis defense that is allowing 319 pass ypg and my computer calls for 373 pass yards which would be the best performance to date for McDermott.
My RB’s of the week are: Darrell Scott, USF and Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma
Darrell Scott, USF-Scott was a PS#1 coming out of HS and after a disappointing start of his career at Colorado transferred here and now leads the Bulls with 261 yds (7.5) and 4 rush td’s. This week he takes on a UTEP defense that allowed only 16 yds last week but look for Scott to have a shot at topping the 100-yd mark.
Dominque Whaley, Oklahoma-Whaley has come out of no where to lead the Sooners with 202 yds (5.2) and 4 td’s. The former walk-on now takes on a very good Missouri defense that is allowing just 68 rush ypg (2.1) but this week my computer calls for 163 rush yds for the Sooners and you have to feel Whaley will have the majority of it.
My WR’s of the week are: Russell Shepard, LSU and Emory Blake, Auburn
Russell Shepard, LSU-The Tigers all-everything player Shepard is back from suspension this week and there is talk that he will be included in ST’s as well as in the receiving game. Shepard is a PS#1 and despite the suspension has been practicing with the team all along and don’t be surprised if he doesn’t come on to the scene with something to prove this week.
Emory Blake, Auburn-Blake has been the go-to guy for QB Trotter as he leads with 11 rec (21.7!) and 3 td’s. Blake has caught a td pass in each game this year and it would not surprise me if he had a 100-yd receiving day and another td for the Tigers against a pass defense that is allowing 69.1% completions and 259 yards.
My Top Defenses of the Week: USF, SMU, Virginia Tech and Auburn
USF vs UTEP-After giving up 508 yards to Notre Dame, the Bulls defense gave up just 225 yards and 7 points to Ball St and 17 points and 181 yards to Florida A&M last week. This week they take on a UTEP QB that will be making his first road start and my computer calls for just 7 points and 218 yards for UTEP making it one of the more dominating performances of the weekend by a defense.
SMU vs Memphis-When you think SMU you think June Jones’ pass-happy offense but their defense has performed well so far this season and last week vs FCS Northwestern St allowed just 126 yards. This week they take on a Memphis offense that is avg just 15 ppg and my computer calls for just 246 yards and 12 points for Memphis which would be another solid performance by the SMU defense.
Virginia Tech vs Marshall. Bud Foster’s D is back! A year after having a sub-par performance defensively allowing 362 ypg, VT has allowed its 2 FBS opponents a combined 381 yards this year! My computer is projecting just 7 points and 259 yards for a Marshall offense that is avg just 15 ppg and 299 yards. Another good performance by Bud Foster’s D should be in the cards.
Auburn vs Florida Atlantic-Picking a defense that has allowed 534 ypg and 37 ppg so far this season is a surprise no matter who the opponent is but this week the Tigers take on a FAU offense that is avg just 2 ppg and 93 ypg. My computer calls for 255 yards and 13 points for FAU, which would be a good performance by a defense that has been one of the worst in the country so far.
UPSET OF THE WEEK: 5-3 run
Toledo over Syracuse
Orange are 2-0 vs the Rockets and in the L/meeting (‘03) won 34-7. Both teams were manhandled by ranked foes last week as Toledo lost 40-15 to Boise St and Syracuse lost 38-17 to USC. However, Syracuse had to travel to SoCal on Saturday night while Toledo played Friday at home. Both have their conference openers on deck. While the defenses are close, Toledo has an offensive edge (#52-87). UT LY beat Purdue 31-20 and in their last road game nearly upset Ohio St, losing 27-22. The Rockets have been using a 2 QB system and avg 282 ypg through the air while the Orange are allowing 269 ypg. Toledo’s top rusher RB Thomas leads with 227 yds (6.1) just 3 yds less than the whole Syracuse team and his 3 rush TD’s is 1 more than the SU team. Orange are just 1-4 vs FBS teams at home under Marrone and that continues here.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 4
A very interesting Week 3 is in the books and it is now time to look ahead to the third week of the college football season and the “sneaky” plays it has in store for fantasy owners. Here is a peek at some guys who might fill in nicely for owners in need of a potential diamond in the rough.
BJ Daniels QB South Florida vs. UTEP: Daniels is coming off a monster game in which he tallied 402 total yards and five total scores against Florida A&M. While the level of competition level was suspect, the production level was not. Daniels should be salivating at the prospects of facing a suspect UTEP defense in Week four. Expect another nice outing from this multi-threat quarterback.
Trent Steelman QB Army vs. Ball State: Steelman is not much of a passer and has yet to crack 90 yards passing in a game thus far, but that has not stopped him from posting excellent fantasy numbers the last two weeks. During that span, he has rushed for 265 yards and six touchdowns. Up next is a date with Ball State and their 72nd ranked rush defense. It is highly likely that this Army QB will rack up another 100 yard day on the ground to go along with a score or two.
Sean Renfree QB Duke vs. Tulane: Renfree is fresh off an outstanding performance against Boston College in which he threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns. It is apparent that Duke cannot run the ball, so Renfree will be called upon to throw early and often most weeks. This weeks match up versus Tulane looks to be very enticing and should provide the springboard for another 300-yard effort from the Duke signal caller.
Mike Glennon QB NC State vs. Cincinnati: This lanky gunslinger has been hot recently, throwing for 589 yards and seven touchdowns over the past two games. He has a nice match up this week against a Cincinnati pass defense which has struggled and ranks 94th in the country against the pass. Expect Glennon to throw the ball a lot in this contest to keep up with the Bearcats offense.
Davin Meggett RB Maryland vs. Temple: Meggett has been very solid in his two games this season, averaging 102 yards per game on the ground a four receptions per game. He is getting a steady diet of carries and seems to be the focal point of the Maryland offense. While the Temple rush defense has been good, it is still a good bet that Meggett will grind out some decent yardage and perhaps a score.
Eric Stephens RB Texas Tech vs. Nevada: Stephens has been quietly putting up decent numbers for fantasy owners over his first two games. He is averaging 105 yards per game and has scored three times so far. Stephens showed he is adept at catching the ball out of the backfield with seven grabs last week against New Mexico. This week he gets to run all over a Nevada rush defense that ranks a lowly 104th in the country this season. Fantasy owners can expect another excellent outing for Stephens in Week four.
Isi Sofele RB Cal vs. Washington: This diminutive back is averaging around 19 carries per game and is coming off a 105 yard and two score performance last week. The Cal rushing attack may not be what fantasy owners are accustomed to, but it is starting to crank up a bit. Sofele could find more success this week against a mediocre Washington rush defense. Another 100-yard game is certainly within reach for Sofele this Saturday.
Bradley Randle RB UNLV vs. Southern Utah: This sophomore got 19 carries last week against Hawaii and responded with almost 80 yards and a score. He should be able to build upon his performance this week against Southern Utah. Randle could find the end zone a couple of times this week against a weaker opponent.
WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
Billy Foster WR Memphis vs. SMU: Foster filled in for the injured Jerrell Rhodes last week and responded with 180 total yards and one score. The beauty about Foster is that he has WR eligibility on most sites and could see a bunch more carries this week if Rhodes is out again. Foster could post decent numbers against SMU, both rushing and receiving.
Alec Lemon WR Syracuse vs. Toledo: Lemon has been anything but this year, averaging 8 receptions per game and posting solid yardage totals as well. He must be grinning ear to ear knowing that Toledo and their 105th ranked pass defense is up on the docket. Look for Lemon to continue his hot start and torch Toledo this weekend.
TJ Graham WR NC State vs. Cincinnati: See above for Glennon as to why Graham is on this list. He has been the top target for Glennon and has back-to-back 100 plus yard games with a score in each. Graham could find himself open often against Cincy and their porous pass defense. A third straight 100-yard effort could be in the cards for Graham this week.
Reuben Randle WR LSU vs. West Virginia: Randle has put together two solid fantasy games in a row and is the top target in the LSU passing game. He is a tough match up in the red zone and is target often there. This Tiger could have a very productive game against West Virginia in what could be a high scoring affair. Look for a third straight quality fantasy game from Randle in prime time.
Crockett Gillmore TE Colorado State vs. Utah State: This big sophomore has been a consistent target for Colorado State and is worth a look this week. He had 84 yards receiving and a touchdown in last week’s game versus Colorado. Any TE catching four or five balls per week is worth a look and Gillmore is no exception.
Penn State vs. Eastern Michigan
Boston College vs. UMass
Air Force vs. Tennessee State
Wisconsin vs. South Dakota
Northern Illinois vs. Cal Poly
UConn vs. Buffalo
Auburn vs. Florida Atlantic
Baylor vs. Rice
Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech
Houston vs. Georgia State
Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas
There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck this week!
For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:
- Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
- Injury Reports
- Player Stock Reports
- Player Rankings
- Sneaky Plays of the Week
- Waiver Wire Reports
CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2011 college fantasy football content! Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 4 Player Rankings
|QUARTERBACKS||RUNNING BACKS||WIDE RECEIVERS|
|1||Case Keenum||HOU||1||LaMichael James||OREG||1||Justin Blackmon||OKST|
|2||Robert Griffin III||BAY||2||Marcus Lattimore||SCAR||2||Darrin Moore||TTECH|
|3||Dominique Davis||ECU||3||Montee Ball||WISC||3||Ryan Broyles||OKLA|
|4||Chandler Harnish||NIU||4||Zach Line||SMU||4||Lance Lewis||ECU|
|5||Landry Jones||OKLA||5||Trent Richardson||ALAB||5||Patrick Edwards||HOU|
|6||Darron Thomas||ORE||6||David Wilson||VTECH||6||Robert Woods||USC|
|7||Ryan Aplin||ARKST||7||Robbie Rouse||FRES||7||Kendall Wright||BAY|
|8||Taylor Martinez||NEB||8||Doug Martin||BOISE||8||Nick Harwell||MIA-OH|
|9||Denard Robinson||MICH||9||Michael Dyer||AUB||9||Michael Floyd||ND|
|10||Seth Doege||TTCH||10||Cyrus Gray||TXAM||10||Jordan White||WMU|
|11||Russell Wilson||WISC||11||Vick Ballard||MSST||11||Eric Page||TOL|
|12||Bryant Moniz||HAW||12||Joseph Randle||OKST||12||Cole Beasley||SMU|
|13||Brandon Weeden||OKST||13||Lamar Miller||MIAMI||13||Juron Criner||ARIZ|
|14||Zach Collaros||CIN||14||Ronnie Hillman||SDSU||14||Kenny Stills||OKLA|
|15||Corey Robinson||TROY||15||Bernard Pierce||TEMP||15||Darius Johnson||SMU|
|16||Kellen Moore||BOISE||16||Robert Turbin||UTST||16||Dwight Jones||UNC|
|17||Matt Barkley||USC||17||Chris Rainey||FLOR||17||Josh Boyce||TCU|
|18||James Franklin||MIZZ||18||Eric Stephens||TXAM||18||Marvin McNutt||IOWA|
|19||Jeffrey Godfrey||UCF||19||Ray Graham||PITT||19||TY Hilton||FIU|
|20||Nick Foles||ARIZ||20||Adonis Thomas||TOL||20||Alshon Jeffery||SCAR|
|21||N. Scheelhaase||ILLINI||21||Terrance Ganaway||BAY||21||Jeff Fuller||TXAM|
|22||Casey Pachall||TCU||22||Marcus Coker||IOWA||22||DJ Woods||CIN|
|23||Tommy Rees||ND||23||Michael Hayes||HOU||23||AJ Jenkins||ILLINI|
|24||Tim Jefferson||AFA||24||Rex Burkhead||NEB||24||BJ Cunningham||MCHST|
|25||Trent Steelman||ARMY||25||Matthew Tucker||TCU||25||Mohammed Sanu||RUTG|
|26||Marqueis Gray||MINN||26||Chris Polk||WASH||26||Conner Vernon||DUKE|
|27||Aaron Murray||GEO||27||James White||WISC||27||Aaron Plugrad||AZST|
|28||Brock Osweiler||AZST||28||Spencer Ware||LSU||28||Demarlo Belcher||IND|
|29||Matt Schilz||BG||29||Isaiah Crowell||GEO||29||Marcus Wheaton||ORST|
|30||Zach Maynard||CAL||30||Reggie Bullock||ECU||30||Eugene Cooper||LTECH|
|31||Mike Glennon||NCST||31||Davin Meggett||MARY||31||Nick Toon||WISC|
|32||Alex Carder||WMU||32||Isaiah Pead||CIN||32||Kamar Jorden||BG|
|33||Chuckie Keeton||UTST||33||Cierre Wood||ND||33||Royce Pollard||HAW|
|34||Ryan Nassib||SYRA||34||Dominique Whaley||OKLA||34||Emory Blake||AUB|
|35||Keith Price||WASH||35||Jason Ford||ILLINI||35||Ryan Swope||TXAM|
|36||Tino Sunseri||PITT||36||Silas Redd||PSU||36||Kevin Dorsey||MARY|
|37||JJ McDermott||SMU||37||Lance Dunbar||NTEX||37||Quinton Patton||LTECH|
|38||Ryan Tannehill||TXAM||38||Rodney Stewart||COLO||38||TJ Graham||NCST|
|39||Barrett Trotter||AUB||39||Jahwan Edwards||BALL||39||Theo Riddick||ND|
|40||BJ Daniels||USF||40||Jasmin Hopkins||NIU||40||Sammy Watkins||CLEM|
|41||Sean Renfree||DUKE||41||Andre Williams||BC||41||Michael Bowman||ECU|
|42||Austin Davis||SMISS||42||Darrell Scott||COLO||42||Jalen Saunders||FRES|
|43||E. Wright-Baker||IND||43||Orleans Darkwa||TULAN||43||Derek Moye||PSU|
|44||Logan Thomas||VTECH||44||Branden Oliver||BUFF||44||Keenan Davis||IOWA|
|45||Zac Dysert||MIA-OH||45||Cameron Marshall||AZST||45||Philip Payne||UNLV|
|46||Bryn Renner||UNC||46||Lennon Creer||LTECH||46||Paul Richardson||COLO|
|47||Danny O’Brien||MARY||47||Eddie Lacy||ALAB||47||Tavon Austin||WVU|
|48||Chris Relf||MSST||48||De’Anthony Thomas||OREG||48||Tyler Shoemaker||BOISE|
|49||Tahj Boyd||CLEM||49||Darriet Perry||FIU||49||Terrance Williams||BAY|
|50||Tevin Washington||GTECH||50||Kedrick Rhodes||FIU||50||Tyron Carrier||HOU|
|1||Jacob Pederson||WISC||1||Dustin Hopkins||SMISS||1||TCU|
|2||Tyler Eifert||ND||2||B. Maher||NEB||2||Wisconsin|
|3||Crockett Gillmore||CSU||3||Quinn Sharp||OKST||3||Penn State|
|4||Orson Charles||GEOR||4||Caleb Sturgis||FLOR||4||Boise State|
|5||Nick Provo||SYRA||5||Blair Walsh||GEO||5||USF|
|6||Gavin Escobar||SDST||6||Dan Conroy||MCHST||6||Virginia Tech|
|7||Kyle Efaw||BOISE||7||D. Alleman||LSU||7||FIU|
|8||M. Furstenburg||MARY||8||M. Bonani||USF||8||Michigan State|
|9||Dwayne Allen||CLEM||9||Mike Meyer||IOWA||9||Iowa|
|10||Jake Stoneburner||OHST||10||J. Shelley||ALAB||10||Florida|
|11||Ryan Griffin||CONN||11||David Ruffer||ND||11||Alabama|
|12||Michael Egnew||MIZZ||12||Jimmy Stevens||OKLA||12||Georgia|
|13||Vance McDonald||RICE||13||M. Barbour||ECU||13||Miami|
|14||Cooper Helfret||DUKE||14||R. Randolph||UVA||14||Ohio State|
|15||Colt Lyeria||ORE||15||R. Bullock||TXAM||15||LSU|
|16||Adam Nissley||UCF||16||C. Journell||VTECH||16||Nebraska|
|17||Joseph Fauria||UCLA||17||Derek Dimke||ILLINI||17||Minnesota|
|18||Evan Rodriguez||TEMP||18||M. Hogan||HOU||18||South Carolina|
|19||P. Lutzenkirchen||AUB||19||Eric Folk||WASH||19||Ole Miss|
|20||Hubie Graham||PITT||20||Aaron Jones||BAY||20||Houston|
|21||Luke Willson||RICE||21||D. Hrapmann||SMISS||21||Arkansas State|
|22||Ted Bolser||IND||22||Ross Evans||TCU||22||Air Force|
|23||Dion Sims||MCHST||23||Kyle French||WISC||23||NIU|
|24||Justin Thompson||KENT||24||T. Miliano||CIN||24||Boston College|
|25||Anthony Miller||CAL||25||San San Te||RUTG||25||Baylor|
|Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:|
|4 points per passing touchdown|
|6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown|
|25 passing yards = 1 point|
|10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point|
|1 interception = -2 point|
|1 reception = 0.5 points|