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Week 4 Surprise College Fantasy Picks

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 6-2-2 for the second week in a row including all three of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 15-10-5 on the picks so far this season.

QUARTERBACKS:

My QB’s of the Week: Dominique Davis, East Carolina and JJ McDermott, SMU

Dominique Davis, East Carolina-Vs two solid defenses Davis has completed 61% of his passes for 387 yds with a 4-2 ratio but now takes on a UAB defense that has allowed 526 ypg and should easily put forth his best performance of the season.

JJ McDermott, SMU-This is a name you my not be familiar with but McDermott has taken over for Kyle Padron and his completing 58% of his passes for 776 yards and a 1-2 ratio. This week he takes on a Memphis defense that is allowing 319 pass ypg and my computer calls for 373 pass yards which would be the best performance to date for McDermott.

RUNNING BACKS:

My RB’s of the week are: Darrell Scott, USF and Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma

Darrell Scott, USF-Scott was a PS#1 coming out of HS and after a disappointing start of his career at Colorado transferred here and now leads the Bulls with 261 yds (7.5) and 4 rush td’s. This week he takes on a UTEP defense that allowed only 16 yds last week but look for Scott to have a shot at topping the 100-yd mark.

Dominque Whaley, Oklahoma-Whaley has come out of no where to lead the Sooners with 202 yds (5.2) and 4 td’s. The former walk-on now takes on a very good Missouri defense that is allowing just 68 rush ypg (2.1) but this week my computer calls for 163 rush yds for the Sooners and you have to feel Whaley will have the majority of it.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

My WR’s of the week are: Russell Shepard, LSU and Emory Blake, Auburn

Russell Shepard, LSU-The Tigers all-everything player Shepard is back from suspension this week and there is talk that he will be included in ST’s as well as in the receiving game. Shepard is a PS#1 and despite the suspension has been practicing with the team all along and don’t be surprised if he doesn’t come on to the scene with something to prove this week.

Emory Blake, Auburn-Blake has been the go-to guy for QB Trotter as he leads with 11 rec (21.7!) and 3 td’s. Blake has caught a td pass in each game this year and it would not surprise me if he had a 100-yd receiving day and another td for the Tigers against a pass defense that is allowing 69.1% completions and 259 yards.

DEFENSES:

My Top Defenses of the Week: USF, SMU, Virginia Tech and Auburn

USF vs UTEP-After giving up 508 yards to Notre Dame, the Bulls defense gave up just 225 yards and 7 points to Ball St and 17 points and 181 yards to Florida A&M last week. This week they take on a UTEP QB that will be making his first road start and my computer calls for just 7 points and 218 yards for UTEP making it one of the more dominating performances of the weekend by a defense.

SMU vs Memphis-When you think SMU you think June Jones’ pass-happy offense but their defense has performed well so far this season and last week vs FCS Northwestern St allowed just 126 yards. This week they take on a Memphis offense that is avg just 15 ppg and my computer calls for just 246 yards and 12 points for Memphis which would be another solid performance by the SMU defense.

Virginia Tech vs Marshall. Bud Foster’s D is back! A year after having a sub-par performance defensively allowing 362 ypg, VT has allowed its 2 FBS opponents a combined 381 yards this year! My computer is projecting just 7 points and 259 yards for a Marshall offense that is avg just 15 ppg and 299 yards. Another good performance by Bud Foster’s D should be in the cards.

Auburn vs Florida Atlantic-Picking a defense that has allowed 534 ypg and 37 ppg so far this season is a surprise no matter who the opponent is but this week the Tigers take on a FAU offense that is avg just 2 ppg and 93 ypg. My computer calls for 255 yards and 13 points for FAU, which would be a good performance by a defense that has been one of the worst in the country so far.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: 5-3 run

Toledo over Syracuse

Orange are 2-0 vs the Rockets and in the L/meeting (‘03) won 34-7. Both teams were manhandled by ranked foes last week as Toledo lost 40-15 to Boise St and Syracuse lost 38-17 to USC. However, Syracuse had to travel to SoCal on Saturday night while Toledo played Friday at home. Both have their conference openers on deck. While the defenses are close, Toledo has an offensive edge (#52-87). UT LY beat Purdue 31-20 and in their last road game nearly upset Ohio St, losing 27-22. The Rockets have been using a 2 QB system and avg 282 ypg through the air while the Orange are allowing 269 ypg. Toledo’s top rusher RB Thomas leads with 227 yds (6.1) just 3 yds less than the whole Syracuse team and his 3 rush TD’s is 1 more than the SU team. Orange are just 1-4 vs FBS teams at home under Marrone and that continues here.


A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 4

CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Sneaky Plays – Week 4
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com

A very interesting Week 3 is in the books and it is now time to look ahead to the third week of the college football season and the “sneaky” plays it has in store for fantasy owners. Here is a peek at some guys who might fill in nicely for owners in need of a potential diamond in the rough.

QUARTERBACKS

BJ Daniels QB South Florida vs. UTEP: Daniels is coming off a monster game in which he tallied 402 total yards and five total scores against Florida A&M. While the level of competition level was suspect, the production level was not. Daniels should be salivating at the prospects of facing a suspect UTEP defense in Week four. Expect another nice outing from this multi-threat quarterback.

Trent Steelman QB Army vs. Ball State: Steelman is not much of a passer and has yet to crack 90 yards passing in a game thus far, but that has not stopped him from posting excellent fantasy numbers the last two weeks. During that span, he has rushed for 265 yards and six touchdowns. Up next is a date with Ball State and their 72nd ranked rush defense. It is highly likely that this Army QB will rack up another 100 yard day on the ground to go along with a score or two.

Sean Renfree QB Duke vs. Tulane: Renfree is fresh off an outstanding performance against Boston College in which he threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns. It is apparent that Duke cannot run the ball, so Renfree will be called upon to throw early and often most weeks. This weeks match up versus Tulane looks to be very enticing and should provide the springboard for another 300-yard effort from the Duke signal caller.

Mike Glennon QB NC State vs. Cincinnati: This lanky gunslinger has been hot recently, throwing for 589 yards and seven touchdowns over the past two games. He has a nice match up this week against a Cincinnati pass defense which has struggled and ranks 94th in the country against the pass. Expect Glennon to throw the ball a lot in this contest to keep up with the Bearcats offense.

RUNNING BACKS

Davin Meggett RB Maryland vs. Temple: Meggett has been very solid in his two games this season, averaging 102 yards per game on the ground a four receptions per game. He is getting a steady diet of carries and seems to be the focal point of the Maryland offense. While the Temple rush defense has been good, it is still a good bet that Meggett will grind out some decent yardage and perhaps a score.

Eric Stephens RB Texas Tech vs. Nevada: Stephens has been quietly putting up decent numbers for fantasy owners over his first two games. He is averaging 105 yards per game and has scored three times so far. Stephens showed he is adept at catching the ball out of the backfield with seven grabs last week against New Mexico. This week he gets to run all over a Nevada rush defense that ranks a lowly 104th in the country this season. Fantasy owners can expect another excellent outing for Stephens in Week four.

Isi Sofele RB Cal vs. Washington: This diminutive back is averaging around 19 carries per game and is coming off a 105 yard and two score performance last week. The Cal rushing attack may not be what fantasy owners are accustomed to, but it is starting to crank up a bit. Sofele could find more success this week against a mediocre Washington rush defense. Another 100-yard game is certainly within reach for Sofele this Saturday.
 
Bradley Randle RB UNLV vs. Southern Utah:
This sophomore got 19 carries last week against Hawaii and responded with almost 80 yards and a score. He should be able to build upon his performance this week against Southern Utah. Randle could find the end zone a couple of times this week against a weaker opponent.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

Billy Foster WR Memphis vs. SMU: Foster filled in for the injured Jerrell Rhodes last week and responded with 180 total yards and one score. The beauty about Foster is that he has WR eligibility on most sites and could see a bunch more carries this week if Rhodes is out again. Foster could post decent numbers against SMU, both rushing and receiving.

Alec Lemon WR Syracuse vs. Toledo: Lemon has been anything but this year, averaging 8 receptions per game and posting solid yardage totals as well. He must be grinning ear to ear knowing that Toledo and their 105th ranked pass defense is up on the docket. Look for Lemon to continue his hot start and torch Toledo this weekend.

TJ Graham WR NC State vs. Cincinnati: See above for Glennon as to why Graham is on this list. He has been the top target for Glennon and has back-to-back 100 plus yard games with a score in each. Graham could find himself open often against Cincy and their porous pass defense. A third straight 100-yard effort could be in the cards for Graham this week.

Reuben Randle WR LSU vs. West Virginia: Randle has put together two solid fantasy games in a row and is the top target in the LSU passing game. He is a tough match up in the red zone and is target often there. This Tiger could have a very productive game against West Virginia in what could be a high scoring affair. Look for a third straight quality fantasy game from Randle in prime time.

Crockett Gillmore TE Colorado State vs. Utah State: This big sophomore has been a consistent target for Colorado State and is worth a look this week. He had 84 yards receiving and a touchdown in last week’s game versus Colorado. Any TE catching four or five balls per week is worth a look and Gillmore is no exception.

SNEAKY DEFENSES

Penn State vs. Eastern Michigan
Boston College vs. UMass
Air Force vs. Tennessee State
Wisconsin vs. South Dakota
Northern Illinois vs. Cal Poly
UConn vs. Buffalo
Auburn vs. Florida Atlantic
Baylor vs. Rice
Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech
Houston vs. Georgia State
Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas

There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck this week!

More…

For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:

  • Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
  • Injury Reports
  • Player Stock Reports
  • Player Rankings
  • Sneaky Plays of the Week
  • Waiver Wire Reports

 

CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2011 college fantasy football content!  Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!

 


A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 4 Player Rankings

QUARTERBACKS RUNNING BACKS WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank Name School Rank Name School Rank Name School
1 Case Keenum HOU 1 LaMichael James OREG 1 Justin Blackmon OKST
2 Robert Griffin III BAY 2 Marcus Lattimore SCAR 2 Darrin Moore TTECH
3 Dominique Davis ECU 3 Montee Ball WISC 3 Ryan Broyles OKLA
4 Chandler Harnish NIU 4 Zach Line SMU 4 Lance Lewis ECU
5 Landry Jones OKLA 5 Trent Richardson ALAB 5 Patrick Edwards HOU
6 Darron Thomas ORE 6 David Wilson VTECH 6 Robert Woods USC
7 Ryan Aplin ARKST 7 Robbie Rouse FRES 7 Kendall Wright BAY
8 Taylor Martinez NEB 8 Doug Martin BOISE 8 Nick Harwell MIA-OH
9 Denard Robinson MICH 9 Michael Dyer AUB 9 Michael Floyd ND
10 Seth Doege TTCH 10 Cyrus Gray TXAM 10 Jordan White WMU
11 Russell Wilson WISC 11 Vick Ballard MSST 11 Eric Page TOL
12 Bryant Moniz HAW 12 Joseph Randle OKST 12 Cole Beasley SMU
13 Brandon Weeden OKST 13 Lamar Miller MIAMI 13 Juron Criner ARIZ
14 Zach Collaros CIN 14 Ronnie Hillman SDSU 14 Kenny Stills OKLA
15 Corey Robinson TROY 15 Bernard Pierce TEMP 15 Darius Johnson SMU
16 Kellen Moore BOISE 16 Robert Turbin UTST 16 Dwight Jones UNC
17 Matt Barkley USC 17 Chris Rainey FLOR 17 Josh Boyce TCU
18 James Franklin MIZZ 18 Eric Stephens TXAM 18 Marvin McNutt IOWA
19 Jeffrey Godfrey UCF 19 Ray Graham PITT 19 TY Hilton FIU
20 Nick Foles ARIZ 20 Adonis Thomas TOL 20 Alshon Jeffery SCAR
21 N. Scheelhaase ILLINI 21 Terrance Ganaway BAY 21 Jeff Fuller TXAM
22 Casey Pachall TCU 22 Marcus Coker IOWA 22 DJ Woods CIN
23 Tommy Rees ND 23 Michael Hayes HOU 23 AJ Jenkins ILLINI
24 Tim Jefferson AFA 24 Rex Burkhead NEB 24 BJ Cunningham MCHST
25 Trent Steelman ARMY 25 Matthew Tucker TCU 25 Mohammed Sanu RUTG
26 Marqueis Gray MINN 26 Chris Polk WASH 26 Conner Vernon DUKE
27 Aaron Murray GEO 27 James White WISC 27 Aaron Plugrad AZST
28 Brock Osweiler AZST 28 Spencer Ware LSU 28 Demarlo Belcher IND
29 Matt Schilz BG 29 Isaiah Crowell GEO 29 Marcus Wheaton ORST
30 Zach Maynard CAL 30 Reggie Bullock ECU 30 Eugene Cooper LTECH
31 Mike Glennon NCST 31 Davin Meggett MARY 31 Nick Toon WISC
32 Alex Carder WMU 32 Isaiah Pead CIN 32 Kamar Jorden BG
33 Chuckie Keeton UTST 33 Cierre Wood ND 33 Royce Pollard HAW
34 Ryan Nassib SYRA 34 Dominique Whaley OKLA 34 Emory Blake AUB
35 Keith Price WASH 35 Jason Ford ILLINI 35 Ryan Swope TXAM
36 Tino Sunseri PITT 36 Silas Redd PSU 36 Kevin Dorsey MARY
37 JJ McDermott SMU 37 Lance Dunbar NTEX 37 Quinton Patton LTECH
38 Ryan Tannehill TXAM 38 Rodney Stewart COLO 38 TJ Graham NCST
39 Barrett Trotter AUB 39 Jahwan Edwards BALL 39 Theo Riddick ND
40 BJ Daniels USF 40 Jasmin Hopkins NIU 40 Sammy Watkins CLEM
41 Sean Renfree DUKE 41 Andre Williams BC 41 Michael Bowman ECU
42 Austin Davis SMISS 42 Darrell Scott COLO 42 Jalen Saunders FRES
43 E. Wright-Baker IND 43 Orleans Darkwa TULAN 43 Derek Moye PSU
44 Logan Thomas VTECH 44 Branden Oliver BUFF 44 Keenan Davis IOWA
45 Zac Dysert MIA-OH 45 Cameron Marshall AZST 45 Philip Payne UNLV
46 Bryn Renner UNC 46 Lennon Creer LTECH 46 Paul Richardson COLO
47 Danny O’Brien MARY 47 Eddie Lacy ALAB 47 Tavon Austin WVU
48 Chris Relf MSST 48 De’Anthony Thomas OREG 48 Tyler Shoemaker BOISE
49 Tahj Boyd CLEM 49 Darriet Perry FIU 49 Terrance Williams BAY
50 Tevin Washington GTECH 50 Kedrick Rhodes FIU 50 Tyron Carrier HOU
TIGHT ENDS KICKERS DEFENSES
Rank Name School Rank Name School Rank Team
1 Jacob Pederson WISC 1 Dustin Hopkins SMISS 1 TCU
2 Tyler Eifert ND 2 B. Maher NEB 2 Wisconsin
3 Crockett Gillmore CSU 3 Quinn Sharp OKST 3 Penn State
4 Orson Charles GEOR 4 Caleb Sturgis FLOR 4 Boise State
5 Nick Provo SYRA 5 Blair Walsh GEO 5 USF
6 Gavin Escobar SDST 6 Dan Conroy MCHST 6 Virginia Tech
7 Kyle Efaw BOISE 7 D. Alleman LSU 7 FIU
8 M. Furstenburg MARY 8 M. Bonani USF 8 Michigan State
9 Dwayne Allen CLEM 9 Mike Meyer IOWA 9 Iowa
10 Jake Stoneburner OHST 10 J. Shelley ALAB 10 Florida
11 Ryan Griffin CONN 11 David Ruffer ND 11 Alabama
12 Michael Egnew MIZZ 12 Jimmy Stevens OKLA 12 Georgia
13 Vance McDonald RICE 13 M. Barbour ECU 13 Miami
14 Cooper Helfret DUKE 14 R. Randolph UVA 14 Ohio State
15 Colt Lyeria ORE 15 R. Bullock TXAM 15 LSU
16 Adam Nissley UCF 16 C. Journell VTECH 16 Nebraska
17 Joseph Fauria UCLA 17 Derek Dimke ILLINI 17 Minnesota
18 Evan Rodriguez TEMP 18 M. Hogan HOU 18 South Carolina
19 P. Lutzenkirchen AUB 19 Eric Folk WASH 19 Ole Miss
20 Hubie Graham PITT 20 Aaron Jones BAY 20 Houston
21 Luke Willson RICE 21 D. Hrapmann SMISS 21 Arkansas State
22 Ted Bolser IND 22 Ross Evans TCU 22 Air Force
23 Dion Sims MCHST 23 Kyle French WISC 23 NIU
24 Justin Thompson KENT 24 T. Miliano CIN 24 Boston College
25 Anthony Miller CAL 25 San San Te RUTG 25 Baylor
Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:
4 points per passing touchdown
6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown
25 passing yards = 1 point
10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point
1 interception = -2 point
1 reception = 0.5 points

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