Week 5 Surprise College Fantasy
Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.
This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 4-3-2 including both of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 19-13-7 on the picks so far this season.
My QB’s of the Week: Keith Price, Washington and Nate Isham, Louisiana Tech
Keith Price, Washington-What if I told you right now Keith Price is a better college quarterback than Jake Locker was? Don’t believe me? Last year in Locker’s 4th season as the starter he avg just 174 ypg (55%) with a 17-9 ratio. This year’s replacement Keith Price has been solid if not spectacular so far avg 246 ypg (67%) with a 14-3 ratio. This week Price goes up against a Utah defense that is allowing 263 pass ypg. I think Price continues his surprising start to the season and may lead the Huskies to an upset win.
Nate Isham, Louisiana Tech-Yes Isham had two costly mistakes last week vs Mississippi St which prevented them from the outright upset but the surprising frosh is avg 232 pass ypg with a 63.2 % comp rate. This week he takes on a Hawaii pass defense that has allowed 215 ypg and 9 td’s. My computer calls for 268 pass yds for the Bulldogs and I think Isham has another solid performance and leads them to a key conference win
My RB’s of the week are: Malcolm Brown, Texas and Marc Tyler, USC
Malcolm Brown, Texas-I picked PS#1 Brown on my preseason All-Big 12 team despite him not having a single college carry. Right now he easily leads the Horns with 264 rush yds (5.1) and 1 td and in his last game had his first 100-yd game vs UCLA. This week he takes on a Iowa St rush D that is allowing 158 ypg and my computer calls for 195 rush yds for the Horns with Brown having a solid shot at eclipsing the 100-yard mark for a second straight game.
Marc Tyler, USC-Tyler has been running wild after the one-game suspension with 303 yds (5.0) and last week ran for 149 yards (6.8) vs Arizona St. This week he takes on a Arizona defense that has allowed 236 rush ypg (6.3) and last week gave up an astounding 415 yds (8.8) to Oregon. My computer calls for 239 rush yds and I think Tyler tops the 100-yd mark again.
My WR’s of the week are: Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee and Jordan White, Western Michigan
Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee-Tennessee’s best WR Justin Hunter is OFY with an ACL injury so Rogers now becomes QB Bray’s go-to-guy. He already has 20 rec (13.1) and 4 td’s for the Vols in just 3 games and this week takes on a Buffalo defense that is just #96 in my pass eff D ratings. I’ll call for Rogers to have a 100-yd game here.
Jordan White, Western Michigan-If you have not heard of White yet you should. White leads the country with 43 rec (11.5) and last week against Illinois the defensive coaches admitted after the game that they were running out of coverages to defend White. I’ll call for White to have a 100-yd game here even against a BCS opp in Connecticut.
My Top Defenses of the Week: Louisville, Virginia, Texas and Virginia Tech
Louisville vs Marshall-Charlie Strong has brought a toughness to the Cards defense since becoming the HC last year. Strong’s D has been “strong” this year allowing less than 293 yds in every game this year (17 ppg) and now take on a Marshall offense that is avg just 287 ypg and 14 ppg. My computer calls for just 11 pts and 253 yds for Marshall which means a 4th straight strong performance by Louisville.
Virginia vs Idaho-The UVA defense has been pretty avg this season allowing 316 ypg but this week they take on a Idaho offense that has been poor this season with under 285 yds in each of their games vs FBS teams. My computer calls for just 17 pts and 233 yds for the Vandals and that would be considered a win for the UVA defense.
Texas vs Iowa St-The Longhorns defense has not missed a beat losing DC Muschamp to Florida and this year are giving up just 259 total ypg and 15 ppg in their 3-0 start. This week they take on a Iowa St team that is also 3-0 and is avg 381 total ypg. My computer calls for just 13 pts and 224 yds for the Cyclones and I think Texas gets revenge for last year’s upset loss.
Virginia Tech vs Clemson-Yes I am going against an offense that is avg 506 ypg and 38 ppg but this week will be a different story for the tigers on the road. I think Clemson QB Boyd will struggle in his first road start while VT DC Bud Foster will have his troops ready to play as he was passed over for the Clemson HC job by current CU HC Swinney. My computer calls for just 322 yards and 21 points for Clemson, which would easily be their lowest total on the season.
UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Boston College over Wake Forest
BC is 4-0 vs WF and WF struggled on the road LY getting outgained by 144+ yds in each (241 ypg). Both teams are off wins over FCS opponents. RB Harris returned (miss 1st 3) for BC as they rolled over UMass 45-17 LW. Prior to UMass BC was avg’g just 81 ypg rush (3.1) but looked to have found confidence. WF is off a bye after a 48-5 win over G-W 2 weeks ago. LTH WF scored 2 TD’s in the final 5:07 incl w/:11 to force OT but fmbl’d on 1&gl after BC had kicked a FG. LY RB Harris accounted for 63% (188) of BC’s yds and all 3 TD’s. BC has the def edge (#33-73) and has played the tougher sked (#39-117). After a disappointing 0-3 start (worst start S/’91) Spaz’s young team looks to turn the corner and get a much needed home win.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 5
A very interesting Week four is in the books and it is now time to look ahead to the fifth week of the college football season and the “sneaky” plays it has in store for fantasy owners. Here is a look at some guys who might fill in nicely for owners in need of a potential diamond in the rough.
Tevin Washington QB vs. NC State:
Fantasy owners are all well aware of the potent Georgia Tech rushing attack, but this year they also boast an adequate passing game to boot. Washington has shown his ability to throw the ball and already has over 800 yards and eight touchdowns through the air. He could find much a lot of success both on the ground and through the air this week against an NC State defense that ranks 93rd overall in the country. Expect a few scores from Washington this week for sure.
Logan Kilgore QB Middle Tennessee State vs. Memphis:
This sophomore quarterback had a huge game last week against Troy, throwing for over 400 yards and a whopping 5 scores. He should be salivating at the prospect if facing a horrible Memphis pass defense that allows almost 330 yards per game. Kilgore could post excellent numbers this week and savvy fantasy owners can reap the rewards.
Keith Price QB Washington vs. Utah:
This talented sophomore has been a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners this season. He has 14 touchdown passes through four games and just under 1000 yards. He could continue his hot start this week against a weak Utah pass defense. Another week of 250 yards and two or three scores are well within reach for Price.
Corey Robinson QB Troy vs. UAB:
Robinson posted almost 350 yards and three touchdowns last week versus Middle Tennessee State. He faces a very bad UAB secondary that ranks 111th in the country and gives up almost 285 yards per game. This game could be very high scoring and Robinson should be right in the thick of it. Look for Robinson to shred the UAB defense and post over 300 yards once again.
John Hubert RB Kansas State vs. Baylor:
Many thought super recruit Bryce Brown would be the main guy in the Kansas State backfield in 2011, but Hubert seems to have taken that spot so far. He is coming off a 166 yards and one score performance against Miami and appears to have solidified his spot at the top of the depth chart. The Baylor rush defense is suspect and Hubert should see a healthy dose of carries as the Wildcats try to grind the clock and keep the high powered Baylor offense off the field. Another 100-yard game with a score is quite possible.
Malcolm Brown RB Texas vs. Iowa State:
This highly touted freshman is starting to contribute and appears to be on the verge of breaking out. He has seen his carries steadily increase during the first three games and is coming off his first 100-yard game against UCLA. Brown could have a big day against an Iowa State rush defense that ranks 75th in the country and may get worn down against Texas this week. Look for a second straight 100-yard effort from this youngster and a touchdown or two for good measure.
Alfred Morris RB Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana Lafayette:
Morris has struggled mightily in his first three games with only 122 yards rushing during that span, but part of the struggles have been because of the schedule. He has faced Florida, Michigan State, and Auburn, so it’s not too surprising that he has yet to get on track. This week’s match up is much kinder with La Lafayette on the slate. This could be the week for Morris to get going and crank out his first 100-yard game of the season.
Javonti Greene RB Eastern Michigan vs. Akron:
Greene has been productive early in the season with two 100-yard games in his first four. He is getting a steady dose of carries and should find some room to run this week against Akron. The Zips rush defense is less than adequate and ranks 100th in the country while giving up almost 200 yards per game. It looks like a big day on the ground for Greene and the Eastern Michigan offense this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
Eric Ward WR Texas Tech vs. Kansas:
Ward has really come over the past two games, accounting for 14 receptions and four touchdowns. He may be even more heavily involved this week with the uncertain injury status of Darrin Moore. The Kansas pass defense has been atrocious and comes in ranked 102nd in the country against the pass. Look for another score from Ward in Week five, and even better numbers if Moore misses the contest.
Derek Moye WR Penn State vs. Indiana:
Moye has turned it on over the past two weeks and has 177 yards and two scores over that period. While he is not flashy, Moye is dependable and the top option when Penn State takes to the air. The Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball on Indiana and Moye should figure prominently in the passing attack. A game with 80 yards and a score are a reasonable expectation for Moye this week.
Sancho McDonald WR Middle Tennessee State vs. Memphis:
McDonald has been very consistent this season averaging 4.5 receptions per game and has scored in all three contests. This week he takes aim at a horrendous Memphis pass defense that ranks 118th and gives up almost 330 passing yards per game. He could find himself in the end zone for the fourth straight game this week and that is always what fantasy owners like to see.
James Rodgers WR Oregon State vs. Arizona State:
Rodgers was on the field for the first time last week since suffering a devastating knee injury last season. He looked surprisingly good and hauled in five receptions for 76 yards. Mr. Rodgers has been a very productive fantasy receiver in the past and may just get there again. Barring any setback, expect Rodgers to become more involved in the offense and post solid fantasy numbers.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington vs. Utah:
This true freshman is becoming an integral part of the Washington offense and is coming off a game in which he snared two touchdown grabs. He faces a Utah pass defense that has had trouble stopping teams and ranks 100th in the country. Look for some decent yardage and possible another score from this athletic freshman in Week five.
Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio
Tennessee vs. Buffalo
Maryland vs. Towson
Virginia vs. Idaho
Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman
Oklahoma vs. Ball State
There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck this week!
For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:
- Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
- Injury Reports
- Player Stock Reports
- Player Rankings
- Sneaky Plays of the Week
- Waiver Wire Reports
CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2011 college fantasy football content! Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 5 Player Rankings
|QUARTERBACKS||RUNNING BACKS||WIDE RECEIVERS|
|1||Denard Robinson||MICH||1||Marcus Lattimore||SCAR||1||Ryan Broyles||OKLA|
|2||Case Keenum||HOU||2||Bernard Pierce||TEMP||2||Robert Woods||USC|
|3||Robert Griffin III||BAY||3||Lance Dunbar||NTEX||3||Kendall Wright||BAY|
|4||Geno Smith||WVU||4||Doug Martin||BOISE||4||Tavon Austin||WVU|
|5||Landry Jones||OKLA||5||Giovanni Bernard||UNC||5||Sammy Watkins||CLEM|
|6||Bryant Moniz||HAW||6||Eric Stephens||TTECH||6||Mohammed Sanu||RUTG|
|7||Kellen Moore||BOISE||7||Montee Ball||WISC||7||Royce Pollard||HAW|
|8||Chandler Harnish||NIU||8||Robbie Rouse||FRESN||8||Lance Lewis||ECU|
|9||Seth Doege||TTECH||9||Trent Richardson||ALAB||9||Nick Harwell||MIA-OH|
|10||Andrew Luck||STAN||10||Zach Line||SMU||10||Darick Rogers||TENN|
|11||Austin Davis||SMISS||11||John White||UTAH||11||Dwight Jones||UNC|
|12||Nick Foles||ARIZ||12||David Wilson||VTECH||12||TJ Graham||NCST|
|13||Brock Osweiler||AZST||13||Davin Meggett||MARY||13||Darius Johnson||SMU|
|14||Dominique Davis||ECU||14||Isaiah Pead||CIN||14||Marquess Wilson||WAZZU|
|15||Corey Robinson||TROY||15||Bobby Rainey||WKU||15||Patrick Edwards||HOU|
|16||Zach Collaros||CIN||16||Lennon Creer||LTECH||16||Eric Page||TOLEDO|
|17||Russell Wilson||NCST||17||Cameron Marshall||AZST||17||Juron Criner||ARIZ|
|18||Ryan Aplin||ARKST||18||Cyrus Gray||TXAM||18||Michael Floyd||ND|
|19||Matt Barkley||USC||19||Ray Graham||PITT||19||Jordan White||WMU|
|20||Tevin Washington||GTECH||20||Stepfan Taylor||STAN||20||Deon Long||NMEX|
|21||Tyler Bray||TENN||21||Vick Ballard||MSST||21||Tyler Shoemaker||BOISE|
|22||Taylor Martinez||NEB||22||Cierre Wood||ND||22||Quiton Patton||LTECH|
|23||BJ Daniels||USF||23||Silas Redd||PSU||23||Jeff Fuller||TXAM|
|24||Tyler Wilson||ARK||24||Isaiah Crowell||UGA||24||Alshon Jeffery||SCAR|
|25||Tajh Boyd||CLEM||25||Rodney Stewart||COLO||25||Josh Boyce||TCU|
|26||M. Lobbestael||WAZZU||26||Robert Turbin||UTST||26||Markus Wheaton||ORST|
|27||GJ Kinne||TULSA||27||Tauren Poole||TENN||27||Derek Moye||PSU|
|28||Tyler Tettleton||OHIO||28||Michael Hayes||HOU||28||Kamar Jorden||BG|
|29||Ryan Tannehill||TXAM||29||Mike James||MIAMI||29||Eric Ward||TTECH|
|30||Colin Klein||KSTATE||30||Michael Dyer||AUB||30||Kelvin Bolden||SMISS|
|31||N. Scheelhaase||ILLINI||31||Chris Polk||WASH||31||Stedman Bailey||WVU|
|32||Keith Price||WASH||32||Dominique Whaley||OKLA||32||Taveon Rogers||NMST|
|33||Logan Kilgore||MTSU||33||Brandon Rutley||SJST||33||Nick Toon||WISC|
|34||Kriss Proctor||NAVY||34||Ben Cunningham||MTSU||34||DJ Woods||CINC|
|35||Alex Carder||WMU||35||James White||WISC||35||Chris Owusu||STAN|
|39||Danny O’Brien||MARY||36||Jasmin Hopkins||NIU||36||Conner Vernon||DUKE|
|37||Aaron Murray||UGA||37||Malcolm Brown||TEXAS||37||Kevin Dorsey||MARY|
|38||Jordan Wynn||UTAH||38||Terrance Ganaway||BAY||38||Stephen Hill||GTECH|
|36||Tyler Hansen||COLO||39||Mike Ball||NEV||39||Aaron Pflugrad||AZST|
|40||Tommy Rees||ND||40||Rex Burkhead||NEB||40||Jalen Saunders||FRESN|
|41||Matt Schilz||BG||41||Marc Tyler||USC||41||Paul Richardson||COLO|
|42||Matt Christian||NMST||42||Spencer Ware||LSU||42||Emory Blake||AUB|
|43||Tyler McHargue||RICE||43||Ryan Boykin||OHIO||43||Eric Thomas||TROY|
|44||Tim Jefferson||AFA||44||Kedrick Rhodes||FIU||44||Keith Sconiers||AKRON|
|45||Derek Carr||FRESN||45||Bryce Beall||HOU||45||Kenny Stills||OKLA|
|46||Stephen Garcia||SCAR||46||Pat Shed||UAB||46||TY Hilton (INJ)||FIU|
|47||Mike Glennon||NCST||47||Alfred Morris||FAU||47||Jeremy Ebert||NW|
|48||Nate Isham||LTECH||48||Kevin Parks||UVA||48||Eugene Cooper||BG|
|49||Jacory Harris||MIAMI||49||Javon Chisholm||AKRON||49||Malcolm Mitchell||UGA|
|50||Corey Pachall||TCU||50||Kenny Turner||NMST||50||Chris Givens||WAKE|
|1||Tyler Eifert||ND||1||D. Alleman||LSU||1||LSU|
|2||Orson Charles||UGA||2||T. Bitancurt||WVU||2||Miami (FL)|
|3||Zach Ertz||STAN||3||J. Williamson||STAN||3||Penn State|
|4||Jacob Pederson||WISC||4||D. Hrapmann||SMISS||4||Maryland|
|5||Crockett Gillmore||CSU||5||A. Jones||BAY||5||Alabama|
|6||Dwayne Allen||CLEM||6||B. Walsh||UGA||6||Stanford|
|7||Vance McDonald||RICE||7||R. Randolph||UVA||7||Tennessee|
|8||Evan Rodriguez||TEMP||8||M. Bonani||USF||8||Oklahoma|
|9||Ryan Deehan||COLO||9||K. Fitzpatrick||TULSA||9||Notre Dame|
|10||A. Seferian-Jenkins||WASH||10||N. Ferrara||MARY||10||Louisville|
|11||Ryan Griffin||CONN||11||D. Dimke||ILLINI||11||Boise State|
|12||Ladarius Green||ULL||12||M. Hogan||HOU||12||Michigan State|
|13||Josh Chichester||LOUIS||13||A. Gendreau||MTSU||13||Michigan|
|14||Nick Provo||SYRA||14||M. Weller||OHIO||14||Texas|
|15||M. Furstenburg||MARY||15||Z. Hocker||ARK||15||TCU|
|16||Coby Fleener (INJ)||STAN||16||D. Teggart||CONN||16||Cincinnati|
|17||Luke Willson||RICE||17||B. Maher||NEB||17||South Carolina|
|18||Mychal Rivera||TENN||18||T. Miliano||CINC||18||Wisconsin|
|19||Ryan Otten||SJST||19||J. Wooten||SCAR||19||UL-Lafayette|
|20||Cooper Helfet||DUKE||20||B. Davis||ARKST||20||Ohio State|
|21||Kyle Efaw||BOISE||21||R. Bullock||TXAM||21||Virginia Tech|
|22||Hubie Graham||PITT||22||M. Taylor||TROY||22||South Florida|
|23||Jake Stoneburner||OHIOST||23||D. Carona||TTECH||23||Connecticut|
|24||Dion Sims||MICHST||24||S. Te||RUTG||24||West Virginia|
|25||Drake Dunsmore||NW||25||C. Journell||VTECH||25||FIU|
|Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:|
|4 points per passing touchdown|
|6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown|
|25 passing yards = 1 point|
|10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point|
|1 interception = -2 point|
|1 reception = 0.5 points|