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Week 5 Surprise College Fantasy

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 4-3-2 including both of my QB’s topping having big days! I am currently 19-13-7 on the picks so far this season.

QUARTERBACKS:

My QB’s of the Week: Keith Price, Washington and Nate Isham, Louisiana Tech

 

Keith Price, Washington-What if I told you right now Keith Price is a better college quarterback than Jake Locker was? Don’t believe me? Last year in Locker’s 4th season as the starter he avg just 174 ypg (55%) with a 17-9 ratio. This year’s replacement Keith Price has been solid if not spectacular so far avg 246 ypg (67%) with a 14-3 ratio. This week Price goes up against a Utah defense that is allowing 263 pass ypg. I think Price continues his surprising start to the season and may lead the Huskies to an upset win.

Nate Isham, Louisiana Tech-Yes Isham had two costly mistakes last week vs Mississippi St which prevented them from the outright upset but the surprising frosh is avg 232 pass ypg with a 63.2 % comp rate. This week he takes on a Hawaii pass defense that has allowed 215 ypg and 9 td’s. My computer calls for 268 pass yds for the Bulldogs and I think Isham has another solid performance and leads them to a key conference win

RUNNING BACKS:

My RB’s of the week are: Malcolm Brown, Texas and Marc Tyler, USC

 

Malcolm Brown, Texas-I picked PS#1 Brown on my preseason All-Big 12 team despite him not having a single college carry. Right now he easily leads the Horns with 264 rush yds (5.1) and 1 td and in his last game had his first 100-yd game vs UCLA. This week he takes on a Iowa St rush D that is allowing 158 ypg and my computer calls for 195 rush yds for the Horns with Brown having a solid shot at eclipsing the 100-yard mark for a second straight game.

Marc Tyler, USC-Tyler has been running wild after the one-game suspension with 303 yds (5.0) and last week ran for 149 yards (6.8) vs Arizona St. This week he takes on a Arizona defense that has allowed 236 rush ypg (6.3) and last week gave up an astounding 415 yds (8.8) to Oregon. My computer calls for 239 rush yds and I think Tyler tops the 100-yd mark again.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

My WR’s of the week are: Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee and Jordan White, Western Michigan

 

Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee-Tennessee’s best WR Justin Hunter is OFY with an ACL injury so Rogers now becomes QB Bray’s go-to-guy. He already has 20 rec (13.1) and 4 td’s for the Vols in just 3 games and this week takes on a Buffalo defense that is just #96 in my pass eff D ratings. I’ll call for Rogers to have a 100-yd game here.

Jordan White, Western Michigan-If you have not heard of White yet you should. White leads the country with 43 rec (11.5) and last week against Illinois the defensive coaches admitted after the game that they were running out of coverages to defend White. I’ll call for White to have a 100-yd game here even against a BCS opp in Connecticut.

DEFENSES:

My Top Defenses of the Week: Louisville, Virginia, Texas and Virginia Tech

 

Louisville vs Marshall-Charlie Strong has brought a toughness to the Cards defense since becoming the HC last year. Strong’s D has been “strong” this year allowing less than 293 yds in every game this year (17 ppg) and now take on a Marshall offense that is avg just 287 ypg and 14 ppg. My computer calls for just 11 pts and 253 yds for Marshall which means a 4th straight strong performance by Louisville.

Virginia vs Idaho-The UVA defense has been pretty avg this season allowing 316 ypg but this week they take on a Idaho offense that has been poor this season with under 285 yds in each of their games vs FBS teams. My computer calls for just 17 pts and 233 yds for the Vandals and that would be considered a win for the UVA defense.

Texas vs Iowa St-The Longhorns defense has not missed a beat losing DC Muschamp to Florida and this year are giving up just 259 total ypg and 15 ppg in their 3-0 start. This week they take on a Iowa St team that is also 3-0 and is avg 381 total ypg. My computer calls for just 13 pts and 224 yds for the Cyclones and I think Texas gets revenge for last year’s upset loss.

Virginia Tech vs Clemson-Yes I am going against an offense that is avg 506 ypg and 38 ppg but this week will be a different story for the tigers on the road. I think Clemson QB Boyd will struggle in his first road start while VT DC Bud Foster will have his troops ready to play as he was passed over for the Clemson HC job by current CU HC Swinney. My computer calls for just 322 yards and 21 points for Clemson, which would easily be their lowest total on the season.

UPSET OF THE WEEK:

Boston College over Wake Forest

 

BC is 4-0 vs WF and WF struggled on the road LY getting outgained by 144+ yds in each (241 ypg). Both teams are off wins over FCS opponents. RB Harris returned (miss 1st 3) for BC as they rolled over UMass 45-17 LW. Prior to UMass BC was avg’g just 81 ypg rush (3.1) but looked to have found confidence. WF is off a bye after a 48-5 win over G-W 2 weeks ago. LTH WF scored 2 TD’s in the final 5:07 incl w/:11 to force OT but fmbl’d on 1&gl after BC had kicked a FG. LY RB Harris accounted for 63% (188) of BC’s yds and all 3 TD’s. BC has the def edge (#33-73) and has played the tougher sked (#39-117). After a disappointing 0-3 start (worst start S/’91) Spaz’s young team looks to turn the corner and get a much needed home win.


A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 5

CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Sneaky Plays – Week 5
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com

A very interesting Week four is in the books and it is now time to look ahead to the fifth week of the college football season and the “sneaky” plays it has in store for fantasy owners. Here is a look at some guys who might fill in nicely for owners in need of a potential diamond in the rough.

QUARTERBACKS

Tevin Washington QB vs. NC State:
Fantasy owners are all well aware of the potent Georgia Tech rushing attack, but this year they also boast an adequate passing game to boot. Washington has shown his ability to throw the ball and already has over 800 yards and eight touchdowns through the air. He could find much a lot of success both on the ground and through the air this week against an NC State defense that ranks 93rd overall in the country. Expect a few scores from Washington this week for sure.

Logan Kilgore QB Middle Tennessee State vs. Memphis:
This sophomore quarterback had a huge game last week against Troy, throwing for over 400 yards and a whopping 5 scores. He should be salivating at the prospect if facing a horrible Memphis pass defense that allows almost 330 yards per game. Kilgore could post excellent numbers this week and savvy fantasy owners can reap the rewards.

Keith Price QB Washington vs. Utah:

This talented sophomore has been a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners this season. He has 14 touchdown passes through four games and just under 1000 yards. He could continue his hot start this week against a weak Utah pass defense. Another week of 250 yards and two or three scores are well within reach for Price.

Corey Robinson QB Troy vs. UAB:
Robinson posted almost 350 yards and three touchdowns last week versus Middle Tennessee State. He faces a very bad UAB secondary that ranks 111th in the country and gives up almost 285 yards per game. This game could be very high scoring and Robinson should be right in the thick of it. Look for Robinson to shred the UAB defense and post over 300 yards once again.

RUNNING BACKS

John Hubert RB Kansas State vs. Baylor:
Many thought super recruit Bryce Brown would be the main guy in the Kansas State backfield in 2011, but Hubert seems to have taken that spot so far. He is coming off a 166 yards and one score performance against Miami and appears to have solidified his spot at the top of the depth chart. The Baylor rush defense is suspect and Hubert should see a healthy dose of carries as the Wildcats try to grind the clock and keep the high powered Baylor offense off the field. Another 100-yard game with a score is quite possible.

Malcolm Brown RB Texas vs. Iowa State:
This highly touted freshman is starting to contribute and appears to be on the verge of breaking out. He has seen his carries steadily increase during the first three games and is coming off his first 100-yard game against UCLA. Brown could have a big day against an Iowa State rush defense that ranks 75th in the country and may get worn down against Texas this week. Look for a second straight 100-yard effort from this youngster and a touchdown or two for good measure.
 
Alfred Morris RB Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana Lafayette:

Morris has struggled mightily in his first three games with only 122 yards rushing during that span, but part of the struggles have been because of the schedule. He has faced Florida, Michigan State, and Auburn, so it’s not too surprising that he has yet to get on track. This week’s match up is much kinder with La Lafayette on the slate. This could be the week for Morris to get going and crank out his first 100-yard game of the season.

Javonti Greene RB Eastern Michigan vs. Akron:
Greene has been productive early in the season with two 100-yard games in his first four. He is getting a steady dose of carries and should find some room to run this week against Akron. The Zips rush defense is less than adequate and ranks 100th in the country while giving up almost 200 yards per game. It looks like a big day on the ground for Greene and the Eastern Michigan offense this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

Eric Ward WR Texas Tech vs. Kansas:
Ward has really come over the past two games, accounting for 14 receptions and four touchdowns. He may be even more heavily involved this week with the uncertain injury status of Darrin Moore. The Kansas pass defense has been atrocious and comes in ranked 102nd in the country against the pass. Look for another score from Ward in Week five, and even better numbers if Moore misses the contest.

Derek Moye WR Penn State vs. Indiana:
Moye has turned it on over the past two weeks and has 177 yards and two scores over that period. While he is not flashy, Moye is dependable and the top option when Penn State takes to the air. The Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball on Indiana and Moye should figure prominently in the passing attack. A game with 80 yards and a score are a reasonable expectation for Moye this week.

Sancho McDonald WR Middle Tennessee State vs. Memphis:
McDonald has been very consistent this season averaging 4.5 receptions per game and has scored in all three contests. This week he takes aim at a horrendous Memphis pass defense that ranks 118th and gives up almost 330 passing yards per game. He could find himself in the end zone for the fourth straight game this week and that is always what fantasy owners like to see.

James Rodgers WR Oregon State vs. Arizona State:
Rodgers was on the field for the first time last week since suffering a devastating knee injury last season. He looked surprisingly good and hauled in five receptions for 76 yards. Mr. Rodgers has been a very productive fantasy receiver in the past and may just get there again. Barring any setback, expect Rodgers to become more involved in the offense and post solid fantasy numbers.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington vs. Utah:
This true freshman is becoming an integral part of the Washington offense and is coming off a game in which he snared two touchdown grabs. He faces a Utah pass defense that has had trouble stopping teams and ranks 100th in the country. Look for some decent yardage and possible another score from this athletic freshman in Week five.

SNEAKY DEFENSES

Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio
Tennessee vs. Buffalo
Maryland vs. Towson
Virginia vs. Idaho
Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman
Oklahoma vs. Ball State

There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck this week!

More…

For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:

  • Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
  • Injury Reports
  • Player Stock Reports
  • Player Rankings
  • Sneaky Plays of the Week
  • Waiver Wire Reports

 

CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2011 college fantasy football content!  Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!

 


A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 5 Player Rankings

QUARTERBACKS RUNNING BACKS WIDE RECEIVERS
Rank Name School Rank Name School Rank Name School
1 Denard Robinson MICH 1 Marcus Lattimore SCAR 1 Ryan Broyles OKLA
2 Case Keenum HOU 2 Bernard Pierce TEMP 2 Robert Woods USC
3 Robert Griffin III BAY 3 Lance Dunbar NTEX 3 Kendall Wright BAY
4 Geno Smith WVU 4 Doug Martin BOISE 4 Tavon Austin WVU
5 Landry Jones OKLA 5 Giovanni Bernard UNC 5 Sammy Watkins CLEM
6 Bryant Moniz HAW 6 Eric Stephens TTECH 6 Mohammed Sanu RUTG
7 Kellen Moore BOISE 7 Montee Ball WISC 7 Royce Pollard HAW
8 Chandler Harnish NIU 8 Robbie Rouse FRESN 8 Lance Lewis ECU
9 Seth Doege TTECH 9 Trent Richardson ALAB 9 Nick Harwell MIA-OH
10 Andrew Luck STAN 10 Zach Line SMU 10 Darick Rogers TENN
11 Austin Davis SMISS 11 John White UTAH 11 Dwight Jones UNC
12 Nick Foles ARIZ 12 David Wilson VTECH 12 TJ Graham NCST
13 Brock Osweiler AZST 13 Davin Meggett MARY 13 Darius Johnson SMU
14 Dominique Davis ECU 14 Isaiah Pead CIN 14 Marquess Wilson WAZZU
15 Corey Robinson TROY 15 Bobby Rainey WKU 15 Patrick Edwards HOU
16 Zach Collaros CIN 16 Lennon Creer LTECH 16 Eric Page TOLEDO
17 Russell Wilson NCST 17 Cameron Marshall AZST 17 Juron Criner ARIZ
18 Ryan Aplin ARKST 18 Cyrus Gray TXAM 18 Michael Floyd ND
19 Matt Barkley USC 19 Ray Graham PITT 19 Jordan White WMU
20 Tevin Washington GTECH 20 Stepfan Taylor STAN 20 Deon Long NMEX
21 Tyler Bray TENN 21 Vick Ballard MSST 21 Tyler Shoemaker BOISE
22 Taylor Martinez NEB 22 Cierre Wood ND 22 Quiton Patton LTECH
23 BJ Daniels USF 23 Silas Redd PSU 23 Jeff Fuller TXAM
24 Tyler Wilson ARK 24 Isaiah Crowell UGA 24 Alshon Jeffery SCAR
25 Tajh Boyd CLEM 25 Rodney Stewart COLO 25 Josh Boyce TCU
26 M. Lobbestael WAZZU 26 Robert Turbin UTST 26 Markus Wheaton ORST
27 GJ Kinne TULSA 27 Tauren Poole TENN 27 Derek Moye PSU
28 Tyler Tettleton OHIO 28 Michael Hayes HOU 28 Kamar Jorden BG
29 Ryan Tannehill TXAM 29 Mike James MIAMI 29 Eric Ward TTECH
30 Colin Klein KSTATE 30 Michael Dyer AUB 30 Kelvin Bolden SMISS
31 N. Scheelhaase ILLINI 31 Chris Polk WASH 31 Stedman Bailey WVU
32 Keith Price WASH 32 Dominique Whaley OKLA 32 Taveon Rogers NMST
33 Logan Kilgore MTSU 33 Brandon Rutley SJST 33 Nick Toon WISC
34 Kriss Proctor NAVY 34 Ben Cunningham MTSU 34 DJ Woods CINC
35 Alex Carder WMU 35 James White WISC 35 Chris Owusu STAN
39 Danny O’Brien MARY 36 Jasmin Hopkins NIU 36 Conner Vernon DUKE
37 Aaron Murray UGA 37 Malcolm Brown TEXAS 37 Kevin Dorsey MARY
38 Jordan Wynn UTAH 38 Terrance Ganaway BAY 38 Stephen Hill GTECH
36 Tyler Hansen COLO 39 Mike Ball NEV 39 Aaron Pflugrad AZST
40 Tommy Rees ND 40 Rex Burkhead NEB 40 Jalen Saunders FRESN
41 Matt Schilz BG 41 Marc Tyler USC 41 Paul Richardson COLO
42 Matt Christian NMST 42 Spencer Ware LSU 42 Emory Blake AUB
43 Tyler McHargue RICE 43 Ryan Boykin OHIO 43 Eric Thomas TROY
44 Tim Jefferson AFA 44 Kedrick Rhodes FIU 44 Keith Sconiers AKRON
45 Derek Carr FRESN 45 Bryce Beall HOU 45 Kenny Stills OKLA
46 Stephen Garcia SCAR 46 Pat Shed UAB 46 TY Hilton (INJ) FIU
47 Mike Glennon NCST 47 Alfred Morris FAU 47 Jeremy Ebert NW
48 Nate Isham LTECH 48 Kevin Parks UVA 48 Eugene Cooper BG
49 Jacory Harris MIAMI 49 Javon Chisholm AKRON 49 Malcolm Mitchell UGA
50 Corey Pachall TCU 50 Kenny Turner NMST 50 Chris Givens WAKE
TIGHT ENDS KICKERS DEFENSES
Rank Name School Rank Name School Rank Team
1 Tyler Eifert ND 1 D. Alleman LSU 1 LSU
2 Orson Charles UGA 2 T. Bitancurt WVU 2 Miami (FL)
3 Zach Ertz STAN 3 J. Williamson STAN 3 Penn State
4 Jacob Pederson WISC 4 D. Hrapmann SMISS 4 Maryland
5 Crockett Gillmore CSU 5 A. Jones BAY 5 Alabama
6 Dwayne Allen CLEM 6 B. Walsh UGA 6 Stanford
7 Vance McDonald RICE 7 R. Randolph UVA 7 Tennessee
8 Evan Rodriguez TEMP 8 M. Bonani USF 8 Oklahoma
9 Ryan Deehan COLO 9 K. Fitzpatrick TULSA 9 Notre Dame
10 A. Seferian-Jenkins WASH 10 N. Ferrara MARY 10 Louisville
11 Ryan Griffin CONN 11 D. Dimke ILLINI 11 Boise State
12 Ladarius Green ULL 12 M. Hogan HOU 12 Michigan State
13 Josh Chichester LOUIS 13 A. Gendreau MTSU 13 Michigan
14 Nick Provo SYRA 14 M. Weller OHIO 14 Texas
15 M. Furstenburg MARY 15 Z. Hocker ARK 15 TCU
16 Coby Fleener (INJ) STAN 16 D. Teggart CONN 16 Cincinnati
17 Luke Willson RICE 17 B. Maher NEB 17 South Carolina
18 Mychal Rivera TENN 18 T. Miliano CINC 18 Wisconsin
19 Ryan Otten SJST 19 J. Wooten SCAR 19 UL-Lafayette
20 Cooper Helfet DUKE 20 B. Davis ARKST 20 Ohio State
21 Kyle Efaw BOISE 21 R. Bullock TXAM 21 Virginia Tech
22 Hubie Graham PITT 22 M. Taylor TROY 22 South Florida
23 Jake Stoneburner OHIOST 23 D. Carona TTECH 23 Connecticut
24 Dion Sims MICHST 24 S. Te RUTG 24 West Virginia
25 Drake Dunsmore NW 25 C. Journell VTECH 25 FIU
Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:
4 points per passing touchdown
6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown
25 passing yards = 1 point
10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point
1 interception = -2 point
1 reception = 0.5 points
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  • Guest

    I really can’t wait until Clemson takes all these doubters and finishes it off with another win.  Love how no one yet has taken into account the several offense tricks Morris hasn’t used yet in his books waiting for this match-up.  I think Clemson is going to yet AGAIN surpise a bunch of people…yet still not be respected as they should be with the record they have so far…a win against 2 last year conference Champs, a win again last years National Champs, a win against the predicted ACC leader….think VT is going to be another name added to the list come Saturday.