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Week 9 Selections for Every Game!!!

October 28th, 2011 1 comment

Now Available in iTunes!  Steele Stats iPhone App!

Phil’s Daily Blog!
FBS College Football – 12 Conferences and 120 College Football Teams!

Live scores, box scores, team schedules, week-by-week schedule, 2011 team and individual game statistics including FBS Power Ratings for the 2011 season!  At your fingertips!

Learn about at www.app-plicable.com/support.html
Or in the iTunes Store under “Steele Stats”

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…

Week 9 Surprise College Fantasy

October 28th, 2011 No comments

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 3. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 8-2 including a perfect 6-0 mark with my QB’s and RB’s for a second week in a row!!! I am currently 46-27-9 on the picks so far this season.

QUARTERBACKS:

 

My QB’s of the Week: Brock Osweiler, Arizona St and Dominique Davis, East Carolina

 

Brock Osweiler, Arizona St-Osweiler is avg 280 ypg (66%) with a 15-8 ratio and this week takes on a banged up Colorado pass defense that ranks just #100 in my pass defense rankings. My computer projects 310 pass yds for the Devils this week as they and Osweiler roll along to a probable appearance in the first Pac-12 game!

Dominique Davis, East Carolina-I took Davis two weeks ago and he delivered for me and I’m kicking myself for not taking him again last week as he set the NCAA-record with 26 straight completions and completed 40 of 45 passes (89%) for 372 yards and a 2-0 ratio in the win over Navy. This week he takes on a Tulane team that has an interim HC and my computer calls for another big day for Davis and Co. Read more…

Guest Editorial: Andrew Luck and the NFL

October 27th, 2011 No comments

Shockingly, we are nearing the midpoint of the 2011-2012 NFL season, which means that division races are starting to take shape, and contenders are emerging. If you have been missing out on the fantastic action thus far this season, you may want to check out tv by direct offerings, so that you can tune in to what has truly been an entertaining spectacle. This season has been full of surprising teams, phenomenal performances, and tight games, and the action should only get better as we near the playoffs. Interestingly enough, however, one of the season biggest storylines may end up revolving around a college superstar. Indeed, with two teams in particular ‚the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins, off to absolutely miserable starts this year, there may actually be something of a race to underachieve in order to pick up Stanford’s extremely highly touted quarterback, Andrew Luck. Read more…

Projections for Tonight’s Game!

October 26th, 2011 No comments
Wednesday, October 26th PHIL STEELE Weekly Poll Computer PTS Computer Yds + / - Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM Connecticut at Pittsburgh Pitt Pitt Pitt Pitt Pitt Pitt Pitt
By 14 93% 24-15 372-243 By 3 By 9.2 By 10

Week 9 Top 25 Forecasts

October 26th, 2011 1 comment

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 120-19 (86%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#3 OKLAHOMA ST VS BAYLOR

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BAYLOR 203
265
32
3.7
-
OKLAHOMA ST
207
440
56
1.5
•••
OSU has dominated winning 14 of 15. LY OSU had a schl record 725 yds in a 55-28 blowout (led 27-0 half) in what was supposed to be a B12 South showdown. Since their 3-0 Top 15 non-conf start the Bears have lost 2 of 3 in B12 play with the D allowing 39 ppg and 487 ypg in conf play. Two of the FBS’s best pitch-catch combos are on display in BU’s Griffin (#7 pass eff w/325, 78%, 22-2, 295 rush) to Wright (#5 FBS w/55, 13.8, 9 TD) and OSU’s Weeden (#17 pass eff with 348, 72%, 19-7) to Blackmon (61 rec, 10.9). BU is #78 pass eff D (240, 57%, 18-6). OSU won their 10th straight outside of Stillwater 45-24 over Missouri. HC Gundy said OSU could’ve had 40 by HT if not for the many dropped balls but the Cowboys feasted on 4 2H TO’s from MU QB Franklin which set up 3 TD’s for the win despite missing WR’s Blackmon (concussion) and Anyiam (OFY foot) in the 2H but RB Randle (690, 5.7, 12 TD) has continued to shine. The Cowboys have forced 22 TO in the L/5 gms. OSU has big edges on D (#39-88) and ST (#23-92). OSU is now my pick at this point to play Bama in the national title gm and since BU upset them in ‘05, OSU has won by 42, 31, 28, 27 and 27 and that trend continues here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 59 BAYLOR 38

Read more…

Week 8 News and Notes Part 2

October 25th, 2011 No comments

California had the situational edge over Utah at home, off a Thurs night loss while the Utes had just travelled to the East Coast and were now on the West Coast. At the half Cal had a commanding 20-0 lead and 223-27 yd edge and it was 34-0 in the 4Q. Utah got a FG and then took over with 3:46 left and got a 64/6pl drive for a garbage TD with 1:06 left which made the stats respectable as Cal had a 389-114 yd edge prior to that drive.

Southern Miss had the situational edge vs SMU as they were off of a bye, at home, in front of a sellout vs an SMU team off a big game with another big game on deck. In the 1H SM only had a 210-174 yd edge but did have a 15-7 FD edge. They scored a TD and a FG in their first 2 poss to lead 10-0 and they were int’d at the SMU15 and fmbl’d at the SMU18 on 2 other drives. It was just 13-3 and SMU had a 3&gl at the 5 when they were int’d in the EZ. Six plays later SM got a 55 yd TD run with 7:30 left and then 2pl later a 41 yd IR TD with 6:54 left to blow it open, 27-3. SM finished with a 28-14 FD edge.

Navy QB Proctor was inj’d early but Miller hit 5-12-126 yds and rushed for 36 on 13 carries. East Carolina’s Dominique Davis broke the single game record with 26 straight compl (23, set in 1998 by Tee Martin of Tenn vs S Carolina and later tied by Aaron Rodgers of Cal vs USC). The first 3 drives of the game were 10, 9 and 15 plays but resulted in 2 missed FG’s and SOD and it was a scoreless 1Q. EC finished with a 32-23 FD edge and EC led 17-7 at the half and 31-21 in the 4Q but Navy got a TD on a 37 yd pass from Miller with 7:51 left to actually lead, 35-31. EC got a 77/15pl drive for a TD with 2:14 left. Navy lined up for the game tying 42 yd FG but instead of OT the FG hit the upright. Read more…

Week 8 Top Team Performances Plus News and Notes Part 1

October 24th, 2011 1 comment

During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.

As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.

With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.

Top 25 Game Grades (Team Performances) Week 7

*Means Garbage Yards/Pts Were Subtracted (Includes all OT Yds/Pts)
OFF OFF OFF DEF DEF DEF Gm
Rank
FOE RUSH PASS PTS RUSH PASS PTS Grade
1
TEXAS TECH AT Oklahoma 162 434 41 127 406 38 110.9
2
STANFORD Washington 446 169 65 162 262 21 110.6
3
USC AT Notre Dame 219 224 31 41 226 17 106.7
4
ALABAMA Tennessee 141 294 37 92 63 6 106.2
5
LSU Auburn 177 219 45 25 139 3 105.6
6
OREGON AT Colorado 371 156 45 98 133 2 104.8
7
OKLAHOMA ST AT Missouri 204 329 45 253 215 24 102.0
8
ARIZONA UCLA 254 319 48 37 286 12 101.8
9
CALIFORNIA Utah 129 255 34 -3 117 3 101.5
10
TCU New Mexico 264 251 69 64 21 0 100.1
11
OREGON ST AT Washington St 175 376 44 83 232 21 96.3
12
S MISS SMU 187 266 27 157 173 3 96.0
13
KANSAS ST AT Kansas 261 205 59 88 169 14 95.4
14
AIR FORCE AT Boise St 271 145 26 142 279 37 94.9
15
CLEMSON North Carolina 75 372 59 64 263 31 94.6
16
FLORIDA ST Maryland 218 264 41 54 214 10 94.3
17
NEBRASKA AT Minnesota 346 169 41 97 68 7 94.1
18
SYRACUSE West Virginia 194 249 49 70 338 23 92.1
19
MICHIGAN ST Wisconsin 108 290 37 223 223 31 92.1
20
WISCONSIN AT Michigan St 223 223 31 108 290 37 91.9
21
TEXAS A&M AT Iowa St 247 263 33 125 180 17 88.6
22
MIAMI FLA Georgia Tech 121 140 24 134 77 7 87.7
23
NC STATE AT Virginia 114 231 28 124 125 14 86.1
24
BYU IDAHO ST 290 282 56 20 231 3 85.8
25
VANDERBILT Army 344 186 44 270 18 21 85.8

Read more…

Week 7 Pro Selections

October 21st, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 49-27 64%

CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 113
223
24
1.4
#2
TAMPA BAY 118
243
17
1.6
#15
This is the 5th year in a row for the London game. TB has a big edge in planning as while they lost to NE 35-7 in Morris’ rookie season in 2009. It was their 3rd road game in 4 Wks and Morris entered into the game with a defeatist attitude after NE had blown out TEN 59-0 prior. Both teams are beat up injury wise with TB expected to be without RB Blount (MCL) and DT McCoy (high ankle sprain) here. TB comes in off a tight physical game vs NO where they converted 4 TO’s into 10 pts. While they gave up 453 yds they held NO to 2 FG’s and an int on 4 drives inside their 20. CHI is off B2B primetime games and their level of interest is uncertain. Cutler has been sacked 70 times since Martz took over and has been behind 4 diff OL’s in 5 weeks prior to LW. The key to this game will be if TB can control Forte who is playing at an MVP level with 785 total yds (7.0) or 49% of the Bears total offense prior to MIN. I’ll call for CHI by a FG.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 17 TAMPA BAY 14 Read more…

Week 8 Selections for Every Game!!!

October 21st, 2011 1 comment

Now Available in iTunes!  Steele Stats iPhone App!

Phil’s Daily Blog!
FBS College Football – 12 Conferences and 120 College Football Teams!

Live scores, box scores, team schedules, week-by-week schedule, 2011 team and individual game statistics including FBS Power Ratings for the 2011 season!  At your fingertips!

Learn about at www.app-plicable.com/support.html
Or in the iTunes Store under “Steele Stats”

For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.

Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…

Picks for Tonight’s Games!

October 20th, 2011 1 comment
Thursday, October 20th PHIL STEELE Weekly Poll Computer PTS Computer Yds + / - Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM UCF at UAB UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF
By 17 87% 23-13 461-316 By 8.5 BY 28.71 By 16.5
9:00 PM UCLA at Arizona UCLA Zona Zona Zona UCLA Zona Zona
By 3 52% 32-31 474-393 By 0.5 By 4.28 By 5