Week 6 Top 25 Forecasts

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 14-4 (78%) and so far this season I am 90-13 (87%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU VS #17 FLORIDA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA 95
165
19
2.9
LSU
145
190
29
1.8
-
LY when LSU faked a 53 yd FG w/:35 left down 3. The holder tossed the ball over his head and K Jasper caught it after it hit the turf (review upheld) and ran 5 yds for a FD. Four plays later LSU scored the GW TD w/:06 left. Despite needing that lucky play for the win LY LSU did have a 385-243 yd edge in the Swamp. Will Muschamp spent 2001-’04 as the DC/LB cch at LSU. Gators are off a big HG vs Bama in which they were dominated after their first play from scrimmage (65 yd TD pass). The key play happened late in the 1H with the Gators trailing 24-10 and driving when QB Brantley was hurt (knee). Bkp Driskel came in but the UF off did not cross midfield from that point forward. The duo of Rainey/Demps who came in avg 275 all-purpose ypg were held to 8 yds rush (0.6 combined). LSU dominated UK and all’d only 55 yds until the Wildcats final two drives. QB Lee continues his efficient play avg 159 ypg (59%) with a 7-1 ratio. LSU S/’60 is 220-60-4 in night gms (28-1 under Miles) and just 25-25-3 in day games (9-4 UM). With UF’s uncertainty at QB and the possibility of a true frosh making his first career start, the Tigers get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  LSU 27 FLORIDA 13

 

#2 ALABAMA VS  VANDERBILT

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VANDERBILT 30
35
0
2.5
-
ALABAMA
235
235
34
2.1
The Tide has dominated this series going 43-2 S/’60 w/20 str wins by 16 ppg. In the last gm (‘07) UA won 24-10 (in Nashville) w/a 371-232 yd and 22-13 FD edge (Saban’s 1st yr). Bama is coming off a road trip to the Swamp where they dominated the LOS with a 226-15 rush yd edge and had overall 21-9 FD and 366-222 yd edges in the 38-10 win. RB Richardson is now firmly in the Heisman race after running for a career high 181 yards (6.2) and 2 TD’s and now ranks #9 in the NCAA with 622 (6.5) and 10 TD’s. QB McCarron continues to be a “game-manager” avg 184 ypg (63%) with a 4-2 ratio while the Bama D has all’d just 192 ypg. Vandy used the bye week to heal up QB Smith (neck) who is avg just 103 ypg (58%) with a 3-3 ratio. RB Stacy has filled in nicely for the inj’d Norman and leads with 280 (7.8). The Vandy D does lead the NCAA w/14 int’s in 4 gms and has ret’d 3 of them for TD’s. This is the Tide’s “C” game for October however, Vandy was held to just 77 yds in their L/gm vs SC (#14 D) and now must face easily the best D in the country as the Tide pitch their 2nd shutout of the season.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  ALABAMA 38 VANDERBILT 0

 

#3 OKLAHOMA VS #11 TEXAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA 120
325
32
2.6
••
TEXAS
145
215
23
2.5
-
Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. In the L/6Y UT has held OU to 88 rush ypg (2.5) and in the L12Y the tm with the rush yd edge has won the gm. LY OU blew some big leads and held on for a 28-20 win with a late Horns fmbl on a punt. UT KO’d target #2 ISU on their revenge tour as they took advantage of Cyclone mistakes (3 TO’s and blk’d P ret’d for a TD) to race out to a 34-0 HT lead before coasting. QB McCoy (7-12 for 110 yd) got his 2nd start but Ash played the majority of the gm hitting 7-12 for 145 yd and 2 TD. Frosh RB Brown (327, 4.9) and WR Shipley (16, 17.5) have been difference makers. Young Horns secondary are #4 pass eff D (178, 52%, 2-6) but this is their 1st big test. Sooners capitalized on three 2Q int’s to balloon a 10-6 early 2Q lead over Ball St to a 38-6 HT advantage. OU had 655-214 yd and 28-10 FD edges in a 62-6 win. QB Jones (362 ypg, 72%, 10-5 ratio) is #14 FBS pass eff and Broyles is #5 rec (38, 12.5). OU allows 129 rush ypg (3.9). The D’s are even but OU has the off (#3-28), ST (#25-78) and exp edges.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  OKLAHOMA 31 TEXAS 24

 

#5 BOISE ST AT FRESNO ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOISE ST 183
285
41
1.1
-
FRESNO ST
77
195
19
3.0
-
Boise is 9-1 vs Fresno. Last time here Boise jumped out to a 24-3 lead mid-3Q then Fresno RB Matthews had 69, 60 and 68 yd runs for TD’s getting to within 41-34 but Boise won 51-34. LY Pat Hill said, “they totally dominated us in every way” and BSU won at home 51-0. Fresno is taking on the highest ranked tm ever to play in Bulldog Stadium but that won’t be enough here.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  BOISE ST 41 FRESNO ST 17

 

#6 OKLAHOMA ST VS KANSAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS 173
150
22
2.9
-
OKLAHOMA ST
222
480
58
1.7
•••
LY OSU trailed 14-10 into the 2Q but scored the gm’s final 38 pts holding KU to just 109 yds and 8 FD’s. LTH (‘07) OSU lost 43-28 vs a #5 ranked Jayhawks tm. The Pokes do have a big game at Texas on deck but are off a bye. Prior to the bye OSU rallied from a 20-3 HT deficit scoring 3 straight TD drives to open the 2H in their win vs A&M. QB Weeden is #1 FBS passing (398 ypg, 74%, 10-6) spreading the ball around more than LY but his top target is still LY’s Biletnikoff winner Blackmon (38, 11.8). The Cowboys have forced 13 TO’s (#7 FBS). KU avg just 208 ypg on the road LY. KU had 191 yd and 3 TD on their 1st 15 plays to roar out to a 20-0 lead over TT but the Raiders answered with 3 straight TD drives in both late 1Q/early 2Q and to open the 3Q to take a 45-27 lead. QB Webb (204 ypg, 68%, 9-3) is #4 FBS pass eff but threw his 1st 3 int of the ssn vs the Raiders which led to 3 TD’s. KU is #119 pass eff (293, 72%, 9-1) and that does not bode well going up against Weeden and Co.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  OKLAHOMA ST 54 KANSAS 23

 

#7 STANFORD VS COLORADO

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
COLORADO 63
220
12
1.9
-
STANFORD
197
295
45
1.3
••
Last game was played here in ‘93 (41-37 Stanford win over #7 Colorado). The Buffs have dropped 13 straight conf AG’s (this is their 1st in the P12) by 18 ppg and haven’t won on the road at all since the 2007 season (19 gms). CU was primed for a win a wk ago vs WSU before they all’d 2 TD’s in the final 3:00 to give the Cougars the come from behind win. The Cardinal are tough at home and last week won 45-19 over UCLA as Heisman hopeful QB Luck padded his stats (227 yds, 85%, 3-0 ratio). Luck should have no problem against a young and inexperienced CU secondary that is hampered by numerous inj’s (7 CB’s missed LW, all’g 11-2 ratio TY). To make matters worse, the Cardinal have solid edges in off (#5-71), def (#14-51) and ST’s (#20-89) while CU has dropped 13 of its L/14 vs Top 10 tms being outscored 38-12.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  STANFORD 38 COLORADO 10

#8 CLEMSON VS BOSTON COLLEGE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOSTON COLLEGE 97
163
11
2.3
-
CLEMSON
184
318
33
2.0
••
LY CU led 10-3 into the 2Q gaining only 193 yds thereafter but only 1 of their L/8 poss ended in a punt (3 TO, 2 missed FG, SOD and end of gm). LTH here (‘09) Clemson and the gm took nearly 5 hours due to lightning delays and BC’s only TD was set up by a TO. BC had MINUS 5 yds at the half! BC is off a loss to Wake LW 27-19. RB Montel Harris (BC car rush leader) made his 1st start (inj’d) rushing for 108 yds (4.9) but behind QB Rettig (210 ypg, 52%, 5-4) and a patchwork OL the offense has struggled to score. CU HC Swinney said it best when he said, “we played just enough offense and a lot of defense” (easily vs VT’s young QB) as the Tigers downed VT 23-3 LW. The D held VT without a TD at home for the 1st time S/’95. CU became the 1st ACC school to defeat 3 consec ranked opponents in Aub, FSU and VT. Coming into LW CU was avg 38 ppg and 506 ypg. Clemson has all the edges here (off #18-90, def #34-49 and ST #29-88). Clemson is a hot team as they return to Death Valley and take care of the Eagles.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  CLEMSON 38 BOSTON COLLEGE 10

 

#9 OREGON VS CALIFORNIA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CALIFORNIA 132
215
24
2.2
-
OREGON
258
255
47
2.0
Five of the L/8 in this series have been decided by a TD or less incl LY when UO was held to ssn lows in FD’s (20) and yds (317, next lowest 447) in the 2 pt victory (Cal missed a late 4Q FG). Cal is playing its 5th game of the ssn in the 5th different location and is still steaming after an 8 pt loss to Wash prior to the bye (inside 5 yd line on final drive). The Ducks are also off a bye and have returned to their rapid offensive pace avg 600 ypg since the ssn opening loss to LSU.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  OREGON 44 CALIFORNIA 23

 

#10 ARKANSAS VS #15 AUBURN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUBURN 197
163
25
2.5
ARKANSAS
159
383
40
1.9
-
LY Ark led 43-37 w/14:09 left but imploded all’g 28 unanswered (L/3 TD’s on a 47 yd FR and 2 int’s). Ark QB Mallett was knocked out of the gm in the 2Q with a concussion and bkp QB Wilson threw for 332 yds and 4 TD. LY’s 108 total pts was the highest scoring non-OT SEC game ever. Aub has won 3 of its L/4 trips to Fayetteville but LTH lost 44-23 as they trailed 34-3 mid-3Q. LW Ark rallied after trailing 35-17 at HT to beat A&M for a 3rd str year, 42-38. The Hogs pass gm was firing on all cylinders as QB Wilson threw for a school record 510 yds (303 ypg, 65%, 10-3) and WR Wright had a school record 281 rec yds (21.6). Aub also had a key win away from home LW beating SC, 16-13. The Tigers ran 40 more plays than SC and had a 358-289 yd edge. RB Dyer leads with 567 (5.5) and 7 TD’s while QB Trotter is avg 179 ypg (60%) with a 9-5 ratio. Aub’s much-maligned D did have their best performance LW but still are all’g 440 ypg. Aub’s young tm is gaining experience weekly but the Hogs have a bye on deck while they are just part of a brutal Oct schedule for Auburn.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  ARKANSAS 44 AUBURN 27

 

#12 MICHIGAN AT NORTHWESTERN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 246
220
35
2.6
-
NORTHWESTERN
184
240
21
2.2
Mich’s travels after 5 str. NW is 4-27 vs UM with the 4 wins by just 4 ppg. NW did win the last meeting 21-14 in ‘08 despite a ssn low 257 yds and 14 FD’s as UM was in the midst of a 3-9 ssn. In his 1st action since LY QB Persa staked NW to a 28-10 3Q lead with a career high 4 TD passes before a foot inj KO’d him for the final 2 series as the Cats completed their meltdown 38-35 to rival IL. The Cats are allowing 175 rush ypg (4.1) and though they contained mobile QB Scheelhaase on the ground LW (35, 1.8), he threw for a career high 391 yd and 3 TD. The Wolves dominated the downtrodden Gophers 58-0 with 580-177 yd and 32-8 FD edges. B10’s #1 rusher QB Robinson (557, 8.1) had his best passing gm (15-19-169 and 2 TD) and his fewest carries (6-51) of the ssn as RB’s Toussaint (108, 9.8) and Smith (1st FBS RB with TD rush, pass, rec S/’09) handled the ground duties. Wolves have all’d just 5 TD in 4 gms but are taking on better competition herethan what they faced in 4 of their 5 gms and are on the road for the first time.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  NORTHWESTERN 31 MICHIGAN 30

 

#13 GEORGIA TECH VS MARYLAND

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MARYLAND 118
165
22
2.1
-
GEORGIA TECH
342
185
39
2.1
-
First road gm for MD. GT is 7-3 vs MD and did lose the last gm in ‘07, 28-26. GT had a 3&10 at the MD25 (potential 42 yd FG) but holding was called and the 52 yd att sailed wide right w/:54 left. GT is 5-0 for the 1st time S/’90 (Nat’l Champ) after defeating NCSt LW, 45-35 (led 42-14 4Q). Misleading final as NCSt scored 14 pts in the final :34. Since MD defeated Mia (8 susp) in the opener they have had 2 tough losses to WV and Temple. LW, despite being outgained 378-335, MD defeated Towson 28-3 (7-3 1H). MD’s defense is banged up incl losing its top tkl’r. GT has outgained MD in 9 of the L/10 by an avg of 423-300. Edsall was the DC at GT in ‘98 but the last time he took on Johnson’s offense was in ‘06 and Navy beat Conn 41-17! UC had the #10 D but was shredded for 606 yds (464 rush, 8.3). After the Temple loss Edsall said MD is in transition. Johnson is 18-4 at home and GT will continue to show off their more balanced triple option.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  GEORGIA TECH 41 MARYLAND 20

 

#14 NEBRASKA VS OHIO STATE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OHIO ST 157
133
19
2.0
-
NEBRASKA
189
173
25
2.4
Last met in ‘56. First B10 HG ever for Neb. The Bucks were 21-3 the L/6Y with the avg win by 20 ppg but that was under Tressel. NU HC Pelini is an OSU grad. Both teams come in after humbling results as OSU scored with just :19 left to avoid their 1st home shutout S/’82. MSU dominated the LOS holding the Bucks to just 110 yds until their final drive while piling up 9 sks. The Spartans were SOD at the OSU36, fmbl’d at the OSU25, int’d at the OSU6 and 20 and also missed a 51 yd FG in a misleading final. HC Fickell said after the gm the QB competition will be open in practice TW to all 4 schlrshp QB’s after true Fr Miller struggled (5-10-56 with 1 int) while Bauserman hit 7-14-87 and 1 TD while QB’ing the entire 4Q. OSU allows 94 rush ypg (3.2). After NU took a 14-7 early 2Q lead the Badgers scored 6 TD on their final 8 poss to roll to a 48-17 win in which they had a 486-335 yd edge. NU QB Martinez was contained by UW throwing 3 int although he’s still #4 B10 in rush (482, 5.8), he’s fallen to #11 pass eff (165, 50%, 4-5 ratio). NU had their D’s Big 3 (DT Crick, LB David and CB Dennard) on the field for the 1st time TY but the Blackshirts are allowing an alarming 27 ppg. OSU will put forth a better effort on offense this week but it won’t be enough here.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  NEBRASKA 27 OHIO STATE 17

 

#16 WEST VIRGINIA VS CONNECTICUT

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CONNECTICUT 102
158
19
2.5
•••
WEST VIRGINIA
114
413
40
2.5
-
WV is 6-1 vs Conn but lost LY. The Mountaineers led 10-0 into the 2Q and never trailed until the Huskies hit a 27 yd GW FG in OT that was set up by 1 of 4 WV fumbles which in turn cost WV a trip to the Fiesta Bowl. After going with a QB-by-committee approach for the 1st 4 gms, McEntee was given the job LW vs WM and played well with 299 yds (4 TD). The problem for Conn in the 7 pt loss to the Broncos was a pass defense which all’d 479 yds. WV has legitimate revenge and should be focused after a rout of BG where they finally found a run game (RB Garrison 291 rush yds, 233 of it came in the 1H) and have a bye on the horizon. Their large edge in offense (#14-99) should be too much for the visiting Huskies.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  WEST VIRGINIA 44 CONNECTICUT 20

#18 SOUTH CAROLINA VS KENTUCKY

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KENTUCKY 77
118
11
3.4
SOUTH CAROLINA
199
193
31
2.5
-
Revenge. LY SC was off its huge upset of Bama and the situation greatly favored UK as the loss snapped SC’s 10 gm series win streak. SC blew leads of 14-0 and 28-10 as UK went on a 68/12pl GW TD drive w/1:15 (SC was int in EZ w/:04). It was the first time ever that a UK squad beat a Spurrier cch’d team (1-17). RB Lattimore was injured and missed the 2H (212 ttl yds in 1H). The Gamecocks had been living on the edge all year and LW their bubble burst as they were upset 16-13 at home to Auburn. QB Garcia is avg just 169 ypg (52%) and leads the FBS in int’s thrown (9) and QB Shaw will start here. RB Lattimore has been one of the few bright spots on an off that is avg just 372 ypg as he leads with 677 (5.5) and 9 TD’s. As bad as SC’s off has been UK’s has been worse avg just 256 ypg and LW vs LSU gained 100 (65%) of their 155 yds on their final two drives. QB Newton (129 ypg, 50%, 6-6) has been pulled several times and the Wildcat run gm has been non-existent avg 116 ypg (3.3). This is SC’s 4th straight HG while UK is off Fla and a road gm at LSU but does have a bye on deck. UK has not won SU here since ‘99 and you have to believe SC will want to atone not only for LY’s loss but also LW’s disappointing performance.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  SOUTH CAROLINA 35 KENTUCKY 10

 

#19 ILLINOIS AT INDIANA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ILLINOIS 221
235
33
2.4
-
INDIANA
94
240
20
2.4
-
Misleading final LY as IL was outgained by 99 yds but took advantage of 5 Indy TO’s resulting in 24 pts incl 2 IR TD. Illini are just 2-7 in true road openers. IL had to rally from a 28-10 3Q deficit to beat their rival 38-35 LW as QB Scheelhaase had a 1 yd TD run with :18 left and have OSU on deck. Despite being banged up Scheelhaase’s passing has been the difference TY as he’s #8 FBS pass eff (206, 69%, 7-3) incl a career high 391 yd vs the Cats. WR Jenkins is #6 FBS in rec ypg (633, 40, 5 TD) incl a school rec’d 268 yds and 3 TD’s vs NW. Thanks to PSU mistakes (2 TO inside the Hoosiers 2) Indy actually went down to the wire and had a Hail Mary knocked away at the 5 with no time left. PSU had a 464-256 yd edge as QB Kiel, in his 1st career start for an inj’d Wright-Baker, went the distance (22-45-184 and 1-1 ratio). IU was missing 3 off st’rs altogether incl RB Roberts (concussion) and WR Wilson (back). Indy has all’d 13 sks TY which is more than they all’d all of LY (12) while IL leads the conf in sks (17). Hoosiers allow 190 rush ypg (4.3) and that does not bode well going up against Ill’s rush off.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  ILLINOIS 34 INDIANA 17

 

#20 KANSAS STATE VS MISSOURI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI 173
255
29
1.8
-
KANSAS ST
177
170
23
1.9
-
KSU has lost the L/5 (avg by 18 ppg). LY KSU trailed 38-14 early 4Q before 2 late TD’s but the Cats had 4 TO’s incl a fmbl at the MU1 and 53 yd FR TD. Mizz is off a bye after the loss at OU which dropped them to 2-2 for the 1st time S/’05. They’ve had plenty of firepower in their losses (517 ypg vs ASU and OU) but their D couldn’t get off the field (542 ypg with just 1 sk). QB Franklin’s numbers (246 ypg, 61%, 7-1 ratio, 260 rush) are better than #1 DC Gabbert’s were at this time LY. RB Josey leads the FBS in ypc (533, 12.4!). Tigers allow 87 rush ypg (2.5). KSU upset #15 Baylor LW. KSU got the 1st int of Heisman hopeful QB Griffin of the ssn and turned it into a GW FG before stopping the Bears on downs on their final series. QB Klein (120 ypg, 55%, 6-2, B12’s #4 rusher 423) has stepped up with B2B big gms as the Cats have pulled 2 straight upsets outright. KSU’s imp’d D ranks in the FBS’s top 20 in scoring (16.5), rush (88, 2.9) and total (292) D. Tigers have a big edge on off (#16-79) but KSU has the D edge (#24-27) and is on a roll.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  KANSAS ST 30 MISSOURI 23

 

#21 VIRGINIA TECH VS MIAMI, FL

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI, FL 109
158
17
2.5
-
VIRGINIA TECH
212
203
21
1.7
The Hokies have owned the Canes (11-5) and the Canes have topped 17 pts just once S/’03. In UM’s last visit to Blacksburg they came in ranked #9 (VT #11) and had ssn lows in pts (7), FD (12) and yds (209). QB Harris DNP LY and in ‘09 was just 9-25-150 with an 0-1 ratio (-28 rush yds). TY VT’s sked offered time for QB Thomas to mature as the Hokies relied on defense and rode the back of one of the best RB’s in the ACC Wilson (128 ypg, 5.9). While both did their part (CU avg’d 38 ppg) LW Thomas was exposed as an inexp’d QB (125, 56%, 0-1) and along with an un-Beamer-like ST unit and penalties (12.0 KR, 29.4 punt) proved too costly losing 23-3 to Clemson. The loss snapped a 14 gm ACC win streak and the 3 pts were the 2nd lowest at home under Beamer. UM defeated Bethune-Cookman 45-14 despite being outgained 422-335 and outFD’d 24-15. B-CU dominated UM on both sides in the 1Q (139-39 yd edge) and had a 7-0 lead (trailed 14-7 1H). The Canes have struggled against the run giving up 174 to OSU, 265 to K-St and 219 LW. This is a gut check for both teams and I’ll go with the better coach in Blacksburg.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  VIRGINIA TECH 27 MIAMI, FL 13

 

#22 ARIZONA ST AT UTAH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA ST 92
248
26
3.1
UTAH
119
263
23
2.9
Sun Devils last visit to Salt Lake City was in ‘77, a 47-19 win (ASU has won 7 straight vs Utah). Utah was blasted in its 1st P12 HG vs Wash and will come into this matchup w/o starting QB Wynn (182 ypg, 57%, 6-2 ratio) who was inj’d in the 2H, which gives Hays his 1st career start (10-16-156 LW). ASU was able to overcome three 1Q TO’s (trailed 13-0) to outscore OSU 35-7 down the stretch as the Beavers (388-367 yd edge) had 5 TO’s of their own. Utah is home for a 3rd straight wk heightening their altitude edge. The Sun Devils do have a solid edge in off (#25-78) while the Utes’ 2-2 record doesn’t necessarily reflect their level of play as they narrowly outgained Mont St 292-258, lost at USC (outgained 416-319), were aided by 7 TO’s in the win over BYU and coughed up 5 TO’s of their own against the Huskies LW.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  ARIZONA ST 27 UTAH 13

 

#23 FLORIDA ST AT WAKE FOREST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA ST 105
283
31
1.4
•••
WAKE FOREST
101
208
24
1.8
-
LY FSU and they had a 485-185 yd edge and delivered a 31-0 win. WF has been shutout two other times S/’96 and got revenge w/18 and 10 pt wins. LTH QB Manuel made his 1st career start (265 ttl yds) as FSU went up 31-7 late 2Q never relinquishing the lead. FSU should be much healthier off a bye as Manuel DNP in their 35-30 loss to Clemson. LW Wake snapped a 4 gm losing streak to BC holding on for a 27-19 win (led 24-9 4Q). QB Price is much improved TY avg 280 ypg (63%) with a 7-2 ratio but now faces an FSU D which held OU’s Landry Jones to 199 yds. Wake’s undersized DL (247 lbs) has all’d just 100 rush ypg (2.5) but has just 3 sks and now faces an FSU OL weighing in at 314 lbs with a mobile QB. FSU has huge edges across the board (off #39-64, def #9-67 and ST’s #2-77) with a much tougher sked (#47-117). The Noles are on a mission to regain ACC dominance.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  FLORIDA ST 34 WAKE FOREST 20

 

#24 TEXAS A&M AT TEXAS TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS A&M 242
278
36
2.7
-
TEXAS TECH
124
338
29
1.7
-
LTH A&M snapped a 7 gm road series losing streak winning 52-30. RB’s Gray and Michael each topped 120+ rush yds. LY A&M QB Tannehill had a school rec’d 449 pass yds (1st career QB st) as A&M won 45-27. TT did fmbl into the EZ twice or it would have been a lot closer (the 1st would have put TT up 14-0). After a Top 10 start to the ssn A&M has blown 17+ pt HT leads in 2 straight gms becoming the 1st FBS to do so since 2005. The Ags have been outscored 52-12 in the 2H vs OSU and Ark and many have questioned their conditioning. A&M could not stop QB Wilson (510 pass yd) or WR Wright whose 281 rec yds were #2 all-time in SEC play. A&M still has the B12’s top backfield duo of RB’s Michael (408, 7.2) and Gray (363, 4.5). A&M is #120 FBS pass D (337, 66%, 6-2). TT spotted Kansas a 20-0 lead after their 1st 3 series before roaring back for a 45-34 win. QB Doege (329 ypg, 73%, 14-1) is #12 FBS pass eff despite throwing his first int LW. Young TT D is allowing 229 rush ypg (5.0) and that’s not good news going up against a powerful A&M rush off.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  TEXAS A&M 38 TEXAS TECH 34

 

#25 BAYLOR VS IOWA ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IOWA ST 141
210
25
2.2
BAYLOR
199
350
42
2.6
BU is 2-5 vs ISU and lost 24-10 in ‘09 (L/meeting) as BU QB Griffin DNP (inj). ISU dropped its L/trip to Waco (‘08), 38-10 (Griffin was QB). After undefeated starts both tms ret’d to earth in the B12 opener as KSU kicked a 31 yd FG with 3:10 to beat the Bears who were SOD at their own 35 on their final series. Heisman hopeful Griffin (#1 FBS pass eff 327 ypg, 82%, 18-1) has 18 TD vs 20 incompletions on the ssn but his 1st int set up KSU’s GW kick. WR Wright is #1 FBS rec ypg (40, 621, 15.5). Young Bears D allows 29 ppg and 167 rush ypg (4.4). After 3 comeback wins to open the ssn ISU finally found a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of as UT took advantage of several Cyclone mistakes (3 TO’s, missed 29 yd FG and blk’d P ret’d for a TD) to blaze out to a 34-0 HT lead and won 37-14. Despite his late gm heroics QB Jantz is #100 FBS pass eff (229, 57%, 7-7). ISU is #37 pass eff D (219, 50%, 6-1) but top cover CB Johnson (CS) was carted off the field after a scary collision vs Texas and the Cyclones haven’t seen a pass gm in the same stratosphere as the Bears.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  BAYLOR 44 IOWA ST 27

 

Upsets of the Week: 2-1 LW!
SOUTHERN MISS OVER NAVY
ULM OVER ARKANSAS ST
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  • Soonerxii

    “PHIL’S FORECAST:  CHECK BACK FRIDAY AT 5:00 PM EST”

    don’t bother, they don’t ever update

  • Jaytown

    Yo, 5pm est and still no oregon forecast?? what gives?