Week 8 Top 25 Forecasts!!

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 13-4 (76%) and so far this season I am 103-17 (86%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the boDID ttom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU VS #20 AUBURN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUBURN 130
75
7
2.9
-
LSU
210
200
36
1.4
-
HT has won 10 of the L/11 games and Six of the L/7 gms (excluding ‘09) have been decided by a ttl of 26 pts and LSU hasn’t dropped B2B gms in this series S/’99-‘00. LY in the battle of Top 10 tms LSU tied it 17-17 early 4Q but all’d a 70 yd TD run w/5:05 left. LSU was SOD at its 32 and Aub ran out the L/3:20, 24-17. Aub did have a commanding 526-243 yd edge. LSU had outgained Auburn the previous 4 by 146 ypg and LTH won 31-10. This will be another day home gm for the LSU and while they are 9-4 in those gms under Miles, they are just 50% in those gms since 1960. LW LSU beat Tenn 38-7 as they outgained UT 383-289 and the 31 pt margin was the largest ever vs the Vols. While QB Jefferson continues to see more and more action Lee is still getting most of the snaps avg 155 ypg (62%) and a superb 11-1 ratio. LW Aub took adv of the young inexp UF QB’s by holding them to just 194 yds in the 17-6 win. With reg st’r Trotter struggling as of late, 3 diff Tiger QB’s got action incl Moseley who threw for 90 yds. RB Dyer is still the workhorse with 752 rush yd (5.1) and 8 TD’s. This is AU’s 3rd away game in 4 weeks and with a bye on deck for LSU, this will be the final time to make a statement before the showdown with Bama in two weeks vs a QB making his first start.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 34 AUBURN 10

 

#2 ALABAMA VS TENNESSEE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 0
185
6
2.3
-
ALABAMA
270
225
40
0.8
••
LY UT was outscored 28-0 in the 2H after trailing by 3 at half (UA 41-10). UA’s streak of 41 gms w/o allowing a 100 yd rusher did end (Poole 117) and you have to think that will be mentioned during Bama’s prep this week. Last time here UA had to blk 2 FG’s to preserve a 12-10 win. LW the Tide gave up an early TD drive to trail Miss 7-0 but then scored the gm’s final 52 pts. UA outgained UM 615-141 thanks to another outstanding performance by Heisman cand Richardson (career high 183 yd, 4 TD) as the Tide’s 52 pts were their most in an SEC gm S/’90. QB McCarron has now thrown 151 passes without an int (last int in opener) and is avg 197 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio. The Vols meanwhile, without their 2 best off players LW (QB Bray out 4-6W, WR Hunter OFY), lost 38-7 to LSU. QB Simms threw for just 128 yds (30%) with an 0-2 ratio and the Vols were outgained 383-239. The Tide have the edges across the board (off #7-44, def #1-36, ST’s #15-73) and are coming off Vandy and Ole Miss with a bye on deck while Tenn is coming off UGA, LSU and has SC on deck. Roll Tide!

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 38 TENNESSEE 0

 

 #3 OKLAHOMA VS TEXAS TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS TECH 62
255
20
3.0
OKLAHOMA
243
395
54
2.2
-
Second B12 HG for OU and they have won 31 str. LY’s gm was tied 7-7 early 1Q but then the OU D locked down TT all’g 0 pts and 259 yds (3.6 ypp). The Sooners have won the L/3 here vs TT by an avg of 48-17 (+207 ypg). In ‘08 they took on an unbeaten #2 tm and whipped them 65-21. Despite 29-9 FD and 610-252 yd edges OU was unimpressive in a 47-17 win over Kansas as they settled for 4 short FG’s and AA WR Broyles had an unforced fmbl out of the EZ for a TB. Heisman cand QB Jones (363, 68%, 16-6) is #3 FBS passing. RB Whaley (627, 5.6) is the B12’s #3 rusher. Sooners are #3 pass eff D (201, 51%, 5-9). Raiders dominated the stat sheet (32-16 FD and 580-339 yd edges) but lost 4 TO’s and all’d an IR, KR TD’s and a blk’d FG (3 in L/2W) which set up a 46 yd KSU TD drive in a 41-34 loss. QB Doege (361, 71%, 18-4) may now have to shoulder most of the load without RB Stephens (OFY). Raiders are #70 in pass eff D (188, 56%, 7-4). TT is 4-8 after facing the pillow soft D’s of NM (#120) and Kansas (#116) in their 1st 2 AG’s take on my #3 unit.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 51 TEXAS TECH 20

 

#4 OKLAHOMA ST AT MISSOURI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA ST 122
353
38
2.3
MISSOURI
249
283
35
3.0
-
MU is 1-3 in the series. In the L/gm (‘09) MU only trailed 24-17 at HT but was held scoreless with just 80 yds in the 2H (2.9 ypp) and lost 33-17. LTH (‘08) OSU upset #3 MU. OSU FBS’s #6 passer Weeden (350, 73%, 16-6) remains undefeated as a starter outside of Stillwater (9-0) after LW’s 38-26 win at #22 Texas. OSU was actually outFD’d 24-21 but RB Smith ran 30 yd and 74 yds untouched for TD’s. OSU is T-#3 FBS with 20 TO’s forced. MU destroyed ISU 52-17 (33-17 FD, 294-157 rush yd edges) as they scored TD’s on their 1st 4 poss and ISU’s lone non-garbage time TD came on a 78 yd IR. QB Franklin (248, 61%, 10-4, 390 rush) accounted for 6 TD’s in the blowout. B12’s #1 rusher Josey (717) has the FBS’s best ypc (9.7). MO has the D edge (#25-43) and the tricky Tigers could make this one close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 38 MISSOURI 37

 

#5 BOISE ST AT AIR FORCE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AIR FORCE 222
40
14
3.0
BOISE ST
243
335
52
1.5
-
1st meeting. BSU’s 1st MWC HG (bye on deck) and the 1st time they will be facing the option. BSU is off a 63-13 blowout of Colo St behind RB Martin (20-200, 3 TD), “The Surgeon” Moore (26-30-338, 4 TD) and WR Shoemaker (9-180). CSU was only able to score on trick plays and BSU finished with a schl rec’d 742 yds (2nd time ever over 700) outgaining CSU by 511 yds. Moore now avg 288 ypg (76%, #4 pass eff) with a 21-4 ratio. Shoemaker (401, 16.7) is the top rec and Martin has 622 rush yds (5.1). LW a 20-20 late 3Q tie quickly mushroomed as AF all’d SDSt to score on 28/1pl (after fmbl), 77/11pl and 57/1pl on their next 3 drives and AF fell 41-27. QB Jefferson is avg 142 ypg (63%) with an 8-5 ratio and is the #2 rusher (259, 3.5, 5) behind Clark (556, 8.2, 3). This is AF’s 3rd AG in 4W and they’ve all’d 122 pts the L/9Q’s. BSU has avg’d 60 ppg the L/2 gms but this week will be a little closer.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 48 AIR FORCE 20

 

#6 WISCONSIN AT #16 MICHIGAN ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 138
120
29
1.2
MICHIGAN ST
182
220
22
2.4
-
Rare night gm in Spartan Stadium (11th, beat ND in OT LY) with the GameDay crew on hand. The HT has won 6 str by 15 ppg. MSU is avg 319 ypg pass (56%) the L4Y vs the UW secondary. LY the gm was also here and MSU had a 444-292 yd edge and won 34-24 under ex-OC Treadwell as Dantonio was out (heart attack complications). MSU is now 4-0 under Dantonio in the gm foll Mich and Sparty won their 4th str win over rival Mich LW. MSU contained UM’s Robinson (165 ttl yd) and finished with a 213-82 rush yd edge capping the gm with 4:53 left when S Lewis had a 39 yd pick six. QB Cousins (220, 66%, 8-4) has the B10’s #2 rec in Cunningham (42, 14.8). MSU is #2 FBS in ttl (186) and #4 in scoring (10.8). Wisky took adv of 3 TO’s and breezed by Indy 59-7 with a 524-287 yd edge. Heisman cand QB Wilson (260, 74%, 14-1) is #1 FBS pass eff and caught a TD pass LW with #1 WR Toon (447, 17.9) out. Underrated UW is #3 FBS in scoring D (9.7). The marquee matchup will be MSU’s stout DL which is #3 FBS in rush D (67, 2.3) vs Wisky’s ground gm (#7 258, 5.9) led by Ball (653, 6.1) and the Spartans already shut down one Heisman cand LW.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 24 WISCONSIN 20

 

#7 CLEMSON VS NORTH CAROLINA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NORTH CAROLINA 152
193
23
2.2
-
CLEMSON
164
318
36
1.8
••
LY CU never led but went 86/5pl (2ptng) cutting the deficit to 5. NC gained 3 FD’s running out all but :13 and won 21-16. TY Clemson has trailed in 1H vs Troy and Wofford, was down 21-7 to Aub, faced a FSU team w/o QB Manuel, then held a VT team to 3 pts (w/inexp QB in 1st big gm) and then defeated a bad BC team. LW Clem trailed 35-17 in 3Q but escaped the upset with their thrilling 56-45 win over MD. QB Boyd looked out of rhythm early and several times threw directly at MD DB’s (2 drops, 1 TD) but finished with 270 yds and 4 TD while RB Ellington had a car high 212 rush yds (8.8). NC rallied from 24 down and recovered the onside kick but fell short losing to Miami 30-24 LW. NC’s defense played physical vs UM (all’d just 48 2H yds) and their strong DL held RB Miller to just 29 yds (1.8). NC has the defensive edge (#26-45) while Clemson has the offense edge (#12-48) and big ST’s edge (#19-89) featuring their game changer Watkins who broke CJ Spiller’s all-purp rec’d LW with 345 KR yds after an 89 yd KR TD. Last time here (‘06) NC suffered its worst loss in the series’ 54 gm history, 52-7. After their scare last week you have to think Clemson will be more focused this week and they get yet another win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 37 NORTH CAROLINA 23

 

#8 STANFORD VS #25 WASHINGTON

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 133
170
21
1.8
-
STANFORD
172
345
41
2.0
-
Stanford comes with the nation’s longest winning streak (14, schl rec’d). After another slow start (led WSU just 10-7 at HT), SU took over again in the 2H outscoring WSU 34-7 in the 2H led by QB Luck’s 336 pass yds (64%) and 4 TD’s. After LW’s win over Colo, UW has now reached 30+ pts in their 1st 6 gms led by QB Price (244 ypg, 69%, 21-4 ratio) which is also a schl rec’d (scored 50+ pts LW for 1st time S/’01 vs CU). LY SU’s 41-0 hammering of UW marked the biggest MOV for either tm in this series (81 gms). SU all’d just 107 yds which was the 2nd fewest in schl hist. SU has simply dominated the LOS the L/2Y avg 300 rush ypg (6.2) to just 59 rush ypg all’d (2.2) and it will be interesting to see how UW’s inexp LB’s handle the massive presence of SU’s TE’s. SU has outscored its opp by 31 ppg at home the L2Y while UW should be delivering their “A” game after a bye and a home meeting with the Buffs. This is the best team Stanford has faced all year and it will show on the scoreboard as this game will be tight throughout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 34 WASHINGTON 24

 

#9 ARKANSAS AT MISSISSIPPI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARKANSAS 175
308
38
2.2
-
MISSISSIPPI
196
178
24
2.4
•••
LY Miss did have the FD and yd edges but trailed 21-0 never recovering from a fmbl which led to a TD and 97-yd PR TD. RB Davis rushed for 176 yds. Ark is coming off a bye while Ole Miss is off Bama where after getting a 72/5pl TD drive on their opening drive were held to just 69 total yds the rest of the game (outgained 615-141) in the 52-7 loss. QB Mackey has started the L/2 gms and is avg 164 ypg (46%) with a 1-1 ratio. LW HC Nutt susp’d 4 players before the gm incl 2 st’rs and also lost two def st’rs for the year in DL Dorsey and DB Temple which is not a good sign vs the SEC’s #1 off. Ark is much healthier coming off the bye after two big wins vs A&M and Aub. QB Wilson is avg 297 ypg (65%) with a 12-3 ratio. The Rebs are dangerous vs ranked tms and Nutt is 2-1 vs his former tm. Ark has big edges on off (#16-82) and def (#37-78) but Miss has the ST’s edge (#5-21). Nutt is on the hot seat and could use a respectable showing vs his former tm to silent the critics.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 43 MISSISSIPPI 30

 

#10 OREGON AT COLORADO

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 298
195
49
1.7
••
COLORADO
137
280
23
1.9
-
The L/3 meetings have all come in bowls (CU 2-1) incl the most recent in the ‘01 Fiesta with both tms coming into the gm declaring that they should be in the Nat’l Title gm (#3 CU lost 38-16 to #2 UO and was outgained 500-328). In a potential preview to the P12 Title gm, UO overcame an early deficit vs Ariz St to pull out the 41-27 victory as UO rushed for 269 of their 327 yds in the 2H led by bkp RB Barner’s 171 who was filling in for the inj’d James (852, 9.0). The Ducks also lost QB Thomas (250 ttl ypg, 61%, 17-3 ratio) in the ASU gm with an apparent leg inj and he probably will not play here. After an expected loss at Wash LW (outgained 562-269, down 3 TD’s most of gm, 21st consec road loss), the Buffs return home but with the inj’s (RB Stewart out and WR Richardson ??), susp and attrition, another Duck victory, despite the potential absence of their stars, can be expected as they have now won 15 consec P12 gms.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 48 COLORADO 20

 

#11 KANSAS ST AT KANSAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS ST 230
173
39
1.1
KANSAS
141
238
23
2.2
-
Sunflower Showdown. The Cats are 13-4 and LY after being held to a punt and FG on their 1st 2 poss, KSU had 6 str TD drives and an 85 yd FR TD to lead 52-0. LY’s win was their first since ‘02 in Lawrence. Snyder has always placed extra emphasis on the Kan gm (15-4, MOV by 29 ppg) while Gill’s emphasis is on beating Missouri. KSU pulled their 4th str upset 41-34 of TT in Lubbock LW. The Cats had just 94 1H yds but trailed just 28-20 as they had IR and KR TD’s and also ret’d a blk’d FG 30 yds to set up a 46/9pl TD drive. The Raiders outFD’d (32-16) and outgained KSU (580-339) but also lost 4 TO’s (0 for KSU). Gritty Klein (123, 59%, 7-3) is the B12’s #4 rusher (578, 4.2). The Cats have the nation’s MIP run D all’g 97 rush ypg (3.2) after all’g 231 (5.9) LY! KU’s 2H struggles continued as after trailing just 27-17 at the half they lost to Okla 47-17 as OU had 29-9 FD and 610-252 yd edges. QB Webb is #16 FBS pass eff (206, 66%, 11-5). The problem has been on D where KU is dead last in FBS in ttl (565 ypg) and scoring (49 ppg). Snyder knows when to put the hammer down on his rival.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS ST 37 KANSAS 13

#12 VIRGINIA TECH VS BOSTON COLLEGE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOSTON COLLEGE 79
153
9
2.1
-
VIRGINIA TECH
187
273
29
1.6
-
BC is coming off a bye while VT is playing for the 8th str wk. VT is 3-0 winning by 24 ppg. LY VT won 19-0 but the gm was misleading as BC blew 3 easy scoring opportunities in the 1H incl a drive to the 1 yd line as time ran out. BC was hammered 48-14 their last visit to Blacksburg as they trailed 31-0 not getting their initial FD until 12:00 left in the 3Q. BC lost to Clemson on the road 36-14 2 wks ago and the score could have been worse but CU QB Boyd was KO’d of the gm. Take out the UMass win and BC has been outscored 137-72 all’g 441 ypg TY. BC has battled inj’s across the board and looks like they will prepare for next year snapping 12 str bowl appearances. After a slow start LW QB Thomas threw for 2 TD and rushed for 2 in their 38-17 win over WF. RB Wilson has 907 yds (6.1) and the D is all’g 298 ypg. VT has huge edges on off (#37-96) and def (#13-53). The L/2 times BC has been shutout was vs VT (‘98 and LY).

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 38 BOSTON COLLEGE 6

 

#13 NEBRASKA AT MINNESOTA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEBRASKA 236
180
43
1.4
••
MINNESOTA
139
180
21
2.5
-
NU may have saved their ssn prior to the bye with their biggest comeback in history trailing OSU 27-6 in the 3Q before rallying for a 34-27 win. NU changed their off schemes and ran for 195 yds in the 2H after totalling just 37 at HT while the turning point came when LB David’s 3Q FF set up NU’s 1st TD drive of just 23/2pl. OSU’s Miller was KO’d on the next series and NU had a 297-51 yd edge the rest of the way. Beleaguered QB Martinez avg 169 ypg (54%) with a 6-6 ratio and 584 rush yds (5.8). RB Burkhead is B10’s #2 rusher (635, 5.9) underachieving Blackshirts are #75 FBS in rush D (168, 4.5) and now must make do without future NFLer DT Crick (OFY). With a 1-5 start and being outscored 103-17 in B10 play, UM is focused on the future playing a league high 18 true frosh. Gophers QB Gray (125 ypg, 49%, 3-4, #1 rusher 371) should be healthier after the bye (turf toe). UM allows 167 rush ypg (4.8) and are #109 FBS scoring D (35 ppg). NU does have Legends leader Mich St on deck. Expect lots of Red in the TCF crowd.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 45 MINNESOTA 17

 

#15 WEST VIRGINIA AT SYRACUSE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 86
400
39
2.3
-
SYRACUSE
129
205
22
2.1
Both come in off byes with WV 8-1 in the series. LY’s win over WV snapped a series high 8 gm losing streak for the Orange as Syracuse trailed 14-10 but w/:37 left 1Q int’d WV in the EZ (prevented DD lead) and from that point on held WV to just 118 yds and ZERO pts! Syracuse will attempt to repeat that feat here while WV attempts to achieve bowl eligibility.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 40 SYRACUSE 23

 

#17 TEXAS A&M AT IOWA ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS A&M 240
278
43
2.4
IOWA ST
111
278
19
2.1
-
A&M may feel insulted in being ISU’s HC opp. In the L/meeting (‘09), A&M won 35-10 w/a 501-324 yd edge at home. A&M beat Baylor for the 10th str time at Kyle Field 55-28 with 35-24 FD and 681-480 yd edges (266-50 rush). QB Tannehill (290 ypg, 67%, 13-6) threw a schl rec’d 6 TD’s incl 4 to #1 rec Swope (619, 15.5). A&M is the B12’s most balanced off thanks to RB’s Michael (565, 6.1) and Gray (521, 4.6). The Ags’ D ranks #1 FBS in sks (26) but dead last in pass D (361 ypg, 67%, 12-3) with 3 QB’s setting schl passing records vs them TY. ISU lost its 3rd str 52-17 to Missouri as the Tigers who dominated the LOS with 33-17 FD and 583-343 yd edges. The Cyclones only TD’s came on a 78 yd IR and a 4Q garbage drive 52-10. QB Jantz (220 ypg, 55%, 10-8) is the B12’s lowest rated full-time QB st’r (#91 FBS pass eff) and he’s been sk’d 12x in B12 play behind a banged up OL. The Cyclones have been outmanned up front all’g 218 rush ypg (4.5). ISU is 0-3 in B12 play TY being outscored by 27 ppg and the last time they were at home Texas led them 34-0 at the half.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 41 IOWA ST 20

 

#19 HOUSTON VS MARSHALL

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MARSHALL 153
170
15
2.3
-
HOUSTON
162
420
41
2.1
••
UH is off a bye while MU is playing for an 8th str wk. LW. MU got a spark from QB Graham is his first career start (led 17-6 at HT) but needed a Rice fmbl to score late for the win despite being outgained (2 of 3 wins have been outgained). QB Cato did play late and may start TW. MU is 1-6 on the CUSA road but the win was a huge upset. UH has a large off edge (#5-109) as QB Keenum is 16-0 at home as a st’r (avg win 51-20) while MU is on their 3rd road gm in 4W, has dropped 13 str vs ranked foes and is 0-6 in trips to TX losing by 19 ppg.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 51 MARSHALL 20

 

#21 PENN ST AT NORTHWESTERN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PENN ST 136
230
23
2.2
-
NORTHWESTERN
119
265
21
2.3
HC and only HG for NW in 4 gm stretch. PSU has won 4 in a row and has outgained NW by 142 ypg. LY NU led 21-0 late 1H but was outgained 400-119 all’g 35 unanswered in Paterno’s 400th career win. Thanks to ST’s PSU beat Purdue 23-18 as the Boilers missed a FG, an xp and also all’d a 92 yd KR which the Lions turned into 1 of their 3 FG’s. McGloin saw the majority of the action at QB for a 2nd str wk even though Bolden continues to be the st’r. The net result is a pass off which is ranked #81 (208, 51%, 6-6) and will be without their top target WR Moye (485, 17.3) for a 2nd straight wk. RB Redd (705, 4.8) has picked up the slack with 3 str 100 yd gms in B10 play. PSU is #19 pass eff D (161, 51%, 4-11). NW had 29-17 FD and 495-379 yd edges in the 41-31 loss to Iowa but was done in by mistakes incl a 98 yd IR TD in the 1Q. QB combo of Persa and Kolter have been dynamic (224, 70%, 10-3) but the D has been nonexistent in the 4 gm slide allowing 36 ppg and 445 ypg. The Lions have a huge D edge (#9-83) and get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 30 NORTHWESTERN 23

 

#22 GEORGIA TECH VS MIAMI, FL

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA TECH 301
110
28
1.8
-
MIAMI
239
210
35
1.7
••
UM 4-4 vs GT but has won the L/2. LY the Canes won 35-10 with the series largest MOV S/’67. LTH GT was outgained 454-228 being held to a ssn low 2.4 ypc and 95 rush yds (lowest in Johnson era vs FBS team). LTH Miami won 33-17 as they motivated by all’g 472 rush yds in their ‘08 meeting. LW, with 8 in the box, QB Harris looked flawless as Miami gained 263 yds in the 1H and led NC 27-10. In the 2H Mia struggled with just 48 ttl yds but escaped Chapel Hill with a win. GT is off a very disappointing 24-21 loss to VA, where poor offensive play and penalties finally did them in. MD and VA forced QB Washington to beat them taking away his options and vs better DB’s the pass game has been exposed. GT is all’g 177 rush ypg (4.7) incl ssn highs the L/2 wks and the task gets tougher vs Mia’s big OL. This is Golden’s 1st look at the GT option. He faced Johnson twice (Temple vs Navy) and all’d 420 (7.5) and 359 (6.0) rush in those two but fared better vs the option in his last 3 yrs.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 38 GEORGIA TECH 24

 

#23 ILLINOIS AT PURDUE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ILLINOIS 190
183
26
2.2
-
PURDUE
181
158
25
2.0

LY UI won the matchup of Fr QB’s as Scheelhaase had 313 ttl yds (PU’s Robinson 76 ttl yds) as UI led 37-0 into the 4Q. IL threw 4 passes on its final drive capped by a TD pass with 1:36 left. PU HC Hope wasn’t pleased: “I probably wouldn’t have done that. I’m not going to cry about it.” The Illini haven’t won here S/’01 dropping 3 str trips (avg loss by 26 ppg) but did snap their 5 gm losing streak to the Boilers LY. Mistakes doomed the Illini as they dropped their 1st gm of the ssn 17-7 to OSU as they lost 3 TO incl 2 which set up 12/1pl and 22/3pl TD “drives”. IL had 18-14 FD and 285-228 yd edges vs an extremely conservative Bucks off (just 1 comp). Scheelhaase is #15 FBS pass eff (201, 65%, 11-5, #1 rusher w/396). Jenkins (895, 16.6) is #5 FBS rec ypg. Illini are #5 FBS in sks (26) and #18 in rush D (98 ypg, 2.7). The pesky Boilers also had their share of mistakes vs PSU as they missed a 44 yd FG and an xp, had an int with :25 left 1H which set up a Lions FG, were int’d at the PSU27 and all’d a 92 yd KR which set up a FG in a 23-18 loss. QB TerBush (158, 61%, 6-4) hasn’t thrown for over 200 yds since the opener as they’ve relied on the RB tandem of Bolden (370, 5.3) and Shavers (296, 5.2). Boilers are #47 pass eff D (200 ypg, 54%, 7-4). Illini have edges on both sides (#46-69 off, #20-58 D) but the Boilers have an enormous ST edge (#13-117) and pull the upset.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PURDUE 24 ILLINOIS 23

Upset of the Week:
OREGON ST OVER WASHINGTON ST
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  • Jer

    At first when i discovered your site, i couldnt believe your stats after seeing you say what you said! I called my friends and told them how amazing your stats were. Week after week we check your top 25 forecasts, and use them. Well i just looked at what you said you went last week for week 7… And you said you went ( 13-4 )!

    Well i thought theres no way you went 13-4….So i went back and checked every game, spread, and final result of who you picked and your score outcome and you didnt go no 13-4! Thats a joke! Your lying to people~!….You actually went 9-8….and youre upset of Northwestern over Iowa was also wrong making you 9-9!

    I cant believe your lying about your stats! Thats so brutal! Now im gonna go back and compare all your stats for each week since week 1 with the actual final scores and i bet your way the heck below .500…

    103-17 this year? YAAAAA RIGHT! SURE U ARE! AND 205-60 last year? lol Ya ok!

    I knew it was too good to be true for someone to have such insane stats like you were posting!  Absolute JOKEEEEEE

  • http://www.philsteele.com Phil Steele

    Thanks for the response. My records are straight up only and have nothing to do with ATS so please before you go into a tirade next time kindly ask why there are discrepancies in your records compared to mine. Thanks again!