Week 9 Top 25 Forecasts

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 120-19 (86%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#3 OKLAHOMA ST VS BAYLOR

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BAYLOR 203
265
32
3.7
-
OKLAHOMA ST
207
440
56
1.5
•••
OSU has dominated winning 14 of 15. LY OSU had a schl record 725 yds in a 55-28 blowout (led 27-0 half) in what was supposed to be a B12 South showdown. Since their 3-0 Top 15 non-conf start the Bears have lost 2 of 3 in B12 play with the D allowing 39 ppg and 487 ypg in conf play. Two of the FBS’s best pitch-catch combos are on display in BU’s Griffin (#7 pass eff w/325, 78%, 22-2, 295 rush) to Wright (#5 FBS w/55, 13.8, 9 TD) and OSU’s Weeden (#17 pass eff with 348, 72%, 19-7) to Blackmon (61 rec, 10.9). BU is #78 pass eff D (240, 57%, 18-6). OSU won their 10th straight outside of Stillwater 45-24 over Missouri. HC Gundy said OSU could’ve had 40 by HT if not for the many dropped balls but the Cowboys feasted on 4 2H TO’s from MU QB Franklin which set up 3 TD’s for the win despite missing WR’s Blackmon (concussion) and Anyiam (OFY foot) in the 2H but RB Randle (690, 5.7, 12 TD) has continued to shine. The Cowboys have forced 22 TO in the L/5 gms. OSU has big edges on D (#39-88) and ST (#23-92). OSU is now my pick at this point to play Bama in the national title gm and since BU upset them in ‘05, OSU has won by 42, 31, 28, 27 and 27 and that trend continues here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 59 BAYLOR 38

#4 STANFORD AT #20 USC

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 147
253
37
2.2
USC
164
283
25
2.2
-
Stanford’s nation’s longest win streak (15) is still intact after their 65-21 win over Wash, a gm in which they rolled up a schl record 446 rush yds. USC is off a nice win of their own at ND, but was aided by some crucial Irish TO’s in the 2H incl a 14 pt swing when ND fmbl’d near the Trojan goaline which was picked up by USC and taken for a TD. Stanford has pulled an upset in 4 of the 6 trips to the Coliseum. USC played SU tough LY as they converted on 4&1 and 3&8 and got a 3 yd TD run with 1:08 left to take a 35-34 lead (1:08) but SU drove and got a 30 yd FG on the final play. In Kiffin’s 1st year USC did not play well at home going 3-3 but they are 4-0 this year. Stanford however has had a tendency to keep teams (SJSt, Duke, AZ, UCLA, WSU) in games early on TY and break away in the 2H. USC has much better talent than the previously mentioned group and a slip up by Stanford early could very well cost them in the end.

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 31 USC 30

 

#6 CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEMSON 203
210
39
1.6
•••••
GEORGIA TECH
282
125
31
2.6
-
A couple of weeks ago this game was circled as the showdown in the ACC. LY CU snapped a 4 gm GT series win streak. CU was seeing GT’s option for the 3rd time in 2Y and held the Jackets to 242 yds rushing, almost 100 yds fewer than their avg and their season low. Clemson dominated NC 59-38 LW. The Tigers showed they had more than one weapon (Watkins) as QB Boyd threw TD’s to 5 diff receivers with RB Ellington banged up. UM fans chanted “overrated” in the 4Q as GT lost to Miami LW 24-7. GT is off 4 unimpressive ACC gms dropping the L/2. The Jackets pass threat has disappeared and the ST’s play has been awful. Clemson has a huge ST’s edge (#11-102) and has played the tougher sked (#42-96). Both are playing a 9th straight week and both have a bye on deck. The GT defense has played very well but Clemson has too many weapons for the Jackets to defend. Tigers are 8-0 for the 1st time in 11 yrs and continue their winning ways.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 38 GEORGIA TECH 28

 

# 7 OREGON VS WASHINGTON ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON ST 87
250
16
2.3
-
OREGON
358
250
54
1.9
•••
Oregon has won the L/4 by 40 ppg with a 262 ypg edge. In the last trip to Eugene, WSU was hammered 52-6 being outFD’d 31-4. Despite being w/o QB Thomas and RB James, the Ducks destroyed Colorado (led 35-0 at HT w/a 359-144 yd edge). The Cougs on the other hand may have seen their realistic shot at a bowl game go up in flames LW when they lost to the Beavers 44-21 (outgained 551-315) and potentially lost QB Tuel in the process for a 2nd time TY w/inj. Despite a crucial road trip on deck that features Wash and Stanford, the Ducks (QB Thomas should return, James ?) have enough focus to light up the scoreboard here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 52 WASHINGTON ST 17

 

#8 ARKANSAS AT VANDERBILT

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARKANSAS 98
308
32
2.2
••
VANDERBILT
218
163
24
2.5
-
LY VU did build a 14-6 lead after 1Q w/7 of 8 FD’s (88%) and 140 of their 153 yds (92%) gained. Ark scored 43 unanswered dominating the rest of the way. This is only Ark’s 2nd B2B SEC road trip since ‘09 (lost 2nd 30-17) while Vandy is home for their 3rd straight. Ark LW fell behind 17-0 early to Ole Miss but came back and pulled out 29-24 win as they had a 438-370 yd edge. QB Wilson is avg 287 ypg (63%) with a 12-3 ratio while the ground gm has come to life the past 2 weeks avg 191 ypg (6.4). Vandy made the switch to Rodgers LW (Aaron’s little bro) and while he had just 186 (37%) with a 1-2 ratio he has displayed surprising mobility running for 96 yds (5.3) in Vandy’s 44-21 win over Army and RB Stacy had a career high 198 yds (9.4). While the D’s are even, Ark has big off (#17-79) and ST’s (#20-65) edges and should be more focused than usual here after LW’s scare and Vandy sitting with a 4-3 record.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 30 VANDERBILT 13

 

#9 MICHIGAN ST AT #13 NEBRASKA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN ST 132
198
27
1.9
-
NEBRASKA
204
158
25
1.8
••••

NU is 5-0 and Pelini is 1-0 vs MSU as he was the interim HC for the ‘03 Alamo Bowl beating the Spartans 17-3. In ‘96 (last visit from MSU) NU won 55-14 rolling up 666 yds (331 yd edge). Under Dantonio MSU is 1-6 on the road/neutral sites vs ranked tms. The Spartans got a 44 yd Hail Mary TD on the gm’s last play to upset #4 Wisconsin. After falling behind 14-0 early 2Q MSU’s ST set up a safety (P inside 5), blk’d a 30 yd FG and rec’d a blk’d P for a TD which made it 23-14 at HT. Wisky had 23-18 FD and 443-399 yd edges in the thriller as they tied the gm with 1:26 before MSU’s gm winning drive. With a reshuffled OL the Spartans are last in the B10 in rushing (138, 3.7) but QB Cousins (230, 67%, 11-4) has stepped up along with WR Cunningham (48, 15.1). Spartans are #8 FBS rush D (89, 2.8) and get back DE Gholston after LW’s susp. A crowd stocked 2/3 in Red watched NU demolish hapless Minn 41-14 with 27-11 FD and 515-254 yd edges. RB Burkhead (752, 5.8) has had 96+ in the L/5 gms which has taken the pressure off of QB Martinez (168, 55%, 7-6, 636 rush). NU still hasn’t been awarded Blackshirts allowing 163 rush ypg (4.3). Huge ST (#4-90) and situational edges to NU as MSU is off emotional B2B wins over Mich and Wisky while Neb is off a bye and a trip to Minny.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 24 MICHIGAN ST 21

 

#10 KANSAS ST VS #11 OKLAHOMA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA 88
355
31
2.5
-
KANSAS ST
167
155
26
2.0
-
OU has won 4 straight in the series but LW OU’s BCS dreams got a rude awakening from TT who ended the Sooners’ 39 gm home win streak in a 41-38 loss (trailed 31-7 3Q). OU missed 2 FG’s and fmbl’d at the TT27 but were outFD’d (27-24) and outgained (572-536) as they were without 3 D st’rs who were called out by LB Lewis after the gm. QB Jones’ Heisman campaign took a major hit but he’s still #18 pass eff (370, 72%, 19-7) with the NCAA’s all time rec leader Broyles (67, 13.4) at his disposal. Sooners allow 117 rush ypg (3.1). KSU KO’d their rival Kansas LW to move to 7-0. The Cats all’d a TD with :01 left to finish with a 466-286 yd edge. Tough guy QB Klein doesn’t have pretty numbers (133, 59%, 8-3, 670 rush) but he’s the heart and soul of the offense. Improved Cats are #49 pass eff D (243, 61%, 10-10). KSU has the ST edge (#27-37) with KR TD’s from Lockett in B2B wks. Stoops usually has his Sooners extremely focused after a loss but Kansas St naturally has plenty to play for here as well. This should be a great game!

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 31 KANSAS ST 24

 

#12 WISCONSIN AT OHIO STATE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 174
168
27
1.7
-
OHIO ST
222
1443
21
2.0
••

LY UW led 21-0 but OSU cut it to 21-18 (4Q) before a 73/10pl clinching TD drive as Wisc knocked off the #1 Bucks. OSU had been 3-0 in the previous 3. LTH (‘09) OSU won 31-13 despite being outFD’d 22-8 and outgained 368-184 thanks to 3 D/ST TD’s. From ‘05-’10 OSU lost 5 B10 gms and the next ssn they’ve gotten revenge all 4 times. Prior to the bye OSU turned 3 Illini TO’s into 12/1pl and 22/3pl TD drives in a 17-7 win in which they were outgained 285-228 and outFD’d 18-14. OSU had their 1st W S/’61 with just 1 completion as they stayed on the ground while welcoming back susp’d RB Herron (114, 5.0) with Fr QB Miller getting his 2nd road start. The D also got back susp/inj’d DE Thomas vs IL which freed Simon and Hankins to make plays. Bucks allow 117 rush ypg (3.5). Huge schedule edge to OSU off a bye while Wisky is off a draining Hail Mary TD loss to MSU. After an early 14-0 deficit the Spartans used their ST’s (P which set up a safety, blk’d FG and blk’d P TD) to take a 23-14 HT lead. QB WIlson tied the gm at 31 with 1:39 left which set up the final play heroics. Wilson is #2 FBS pass eff (254, 73%, 16-3) with support from the B10’s all purpose leader RB Ball (768, 6.1). UW allows 121 rush ypg (3.5). OSU has D (#11-28), ST (#7-38) and sked (#33-86) edges and gets revenge.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO STATE 24 WISCONSIN 23

#14 SOUTH CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SOUTH CAROLINA 127
198
24
2.0
-
TENNESSEE
104
228
20
2.9
-

Interesting series as Tenn has covered 2 straight and won 15 of 18 BUT they’ve been outgained 8 straight times. LY’s gm was tied 24-24 early 4Q before UT allowed a 70 yd TD pass and a 92/8pl TD drive. Brutal Tenn schedule as this is the final game of 4 str vs my top 4 SEC teams while SC is off a bye. Tenn LY at home vs Oreg, Florida and Bama at HT were tied, down 4 and down 3 but a lack of 2H depth led to them getting overrun in the 2H. The same thing has held true TY as they were tied 6-6 at HT to UGA ( lost 20-12) and were down just 17-7 to LSU 2 wks ago but were outscored 21-0 in the 2H. LW was no different as a spirited Vols squad was tied 6-6 at HT to Bama on the road but were outgained 280-41 in the 2H being outscored 31-0. Matt Simms is avg just 93 ypg (38%) and an 0-3 ratio in his 2 sts filling in for Bray but that was vs my #1 and 2 D’s (LSU/Bama). The Vols run gm which avg’d -15 ypg (-0.7) vs UF/UGA has avg’d a respectable 101 (3.2) vs those two elite D’s. SC still has the tie-breaker edge in the SEC East over UGA but lost their MVP in RB Lattimore (OFY knee) before the bye and will use a RB-by-committee to try and replace his 818 (5.0) production. QB Shaw will also carry more on his shoulders but after throwing for 311 yds (67%) with a 4-0 ratio vs UK he had just 155 yds (71%) with a 1-2 ratio in his 1st road start at Miss St. South Carolina has survived with 3 wins by 3 pts or less and while both teams have lost key ply’rs, no player in the SEC may be more important than RB Lattimore. The Vols pull the upset!

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 19 SOUTH CAROLINA 16

#15 VIRGINIA TECH AT DUKE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA TECH 199
235
30
1.0
-
DUKE
76
280
18
2.0
-
VT is 7-0 vs Duke outgaining them by 234 ypg (all’g 10 ppg). LTH VT led only 20-16 early 4Q. Duke scored w/:25 left but the onside K failed and they lost 34-26. LW Duke trailed 17-0 1H, before taking the lead but couldn’t hold on losing 24-23 to Wake. Duke is avg just 100 rush ypg (3.0) with inj’s to the RB’s and OL but LW used mobile QB Boone (2 TD) to take the pressure off QB Renfree (256 ypg, 68%, 6-4). VT started slowly for the 2nd str wk trailing BC 7-3 in the 1H. Wilson (6 carries 1H) found the RB coach at HT and told him they had to run the ball more and VT defeated BC 30-14. QB Logan has avg 286 ypg (56%) with a 6-0 ratio since the Clem gm. Wilson leads the ACC w/1,037 yds (6.3). VT has a huge def edge (#13-89) incl the #17 pass eff defense and is #10 FBS w/25 sks. Beamer will have VT focused as they need to run the table to return to the ACC Title gm.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 38 DUKE 16

 

#16 TEXAS A&M VS MISSOURI

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI 152
273
25
1.6
-
TEXAS A&M
209
308
35
2.0
MO is 4-1 in series. LY A&M was at home and MO won 30-9. MO’s Wes Kemp said, “In our offense, we say, ‘Pray for Cover 2.’” LW after pulling out to a 30-7 3Q lead A&M all’d 2 scoring drives but stopped the Cyclones’ last gasp drive at the Ags6 with 4:02 left. Ags QB Tannehill (286, 65%, 15-6) has the B12’s best backfield tandem in Michael (707, 6.4) and Gray (646, 4.8). A&M is #5 FBS rush D (80, 2.4). All 4 of MO’s losses TY have come vs ranked tms as the Tigers lost 45-24 to then-#6 OSU. OSU never trailed and had a 533-463 yd edge but was greatly aided by QB Franklin’s 4 2H TO’s which set up 3 TD drives. Franklin (239, 60%, 11-7, 445 rush) and Josey (855, 8.6) lead the B12’s #1 rush off. MU is #43 pass eff D (241, 64%, 10-7). The Ags have too many weapons and get their revenge after LY’s embarrassment.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 41 MISSOURI 27

#17 MICHIGAN VS PURDUE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PURDUE 158
135
17
2.2
•••••
MICHIGAN
232
255
33
2.1
-
PU pulled upsets in ‘08 and ‘09 (only win at Ann Arbor in 19 gms). LY UM was without 2 top D players but held PU without a TD and had a 395-256 yd edge on the road (27-16). UM is off a bye and after their 1st loss of the yr to rival MSU. In the L/3 ssns UM has had a record of 15-0 going into the Spartans gm and 3-13 after and are looking to avoid a similar slump. QB D-Rob (193 ypg, 52%, 11-10) leads the B10 in rushing (716, 6.4) but after leaving the previous 2 gms with inj’s there are renewed ?’s about his durability and passing ability (B10’s most int’s). 6’4” Gardner has seen increased duty and the staff has said that he’s a better passer. Improved Wolves D is allowing 145 rush ypg (4.6). The Boilers upset IL as they led 21-0 at the half with a 224-138 yd edge. IL rallied for 2 4Q TD’s to gain the yd (366-304) and FD (21-15) edges. Boilers stuck with QB TerBush (161, 62%, 8-4) after rotating with Marve the previous 4. Boilers are allowing 315 ypg and 18 ppg in B10 play. The Boilers have a huge ST edge (#14-111) although the Wolves have the off (#15-75), D (#33-48) and sked (#53-92) edges.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN 34 PURDUE 24

 

#18 HOUSTON VS RICE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 177
455
52
1.3
-
RICE
183
205
23
3.0
••
Played for the Bayou Bucket. The home team has won 4 straight despite the fact they are just 6 miles apart (same city). Rice has pulled the upset 3 times incl LY but LTH UH won 73-14 (only 4th highest ydpg total for ssn, 684). UH did have a bye 2 wks ago and is playing with legit revenge as with a bkp QB they had a 28-19 FD edge but lost 34-31 LY. LW Rice lost to Tulsa but after 3 TO’s QB McHargue was benched in favor of Fanuzzi (may have have concussion 2W ago) UH is 17-0 at home with Keenum (LW became NCAA’s all-time career leader in ttl off yds) starting, avg win 52-20. Rice has dropped 10 str CUSA road gms being outgained 495-355 and outscored 47-24 (allowed 40+ 8x’s). Rice has not beat a ranked foe since 1997 (‘91 on the road) and are on a 0-19 run with a avg loss by 32 ppg. Cougars have a huge edge with their #5 off vs the Rice #100 def and look to match their best start in school history at 8-0 (‘79 and ‘90) while the Owls are in danger of a 3rd str losing season under HC Bailiff (4 of 5).

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 52 RICE 23

 

#19 TEXAS TECH VS IOWA STATE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS TECH 209
383
45
2.3
IOWA ST
162
173
24
2.6
-
Rhoads was the DC at Auburn in ‘08 when Tuberville was the HC. The home team is 5-1 with TT 3-0 at home. TT has outgained ISU in all 7 B12 gms by 165 ypg. LY TT trailed 24-0 but tied it at 24 late 3Q but Iowa St pulled the upset 52-38 so TT is playing with legit revenge. TT has never dropped B2B gms in this series. The Raiders are off of their biggest win in the Tuberville era knocking off the cch’s #1 OU 41-38 handing the Sooners their 1st home loss S/’05. OU missed 2 FG’s and fmbl’d at the TT27 but also trailed 31-7 mid-3Q before rallying with late 2 TD’s. TT QB Doege (373, 70%, 22-4) is having a solid ssn (#21 pass eff) despite being overshadowed by bigger names. The Raiders are #105 rush D (205, 4.8). ISU hung in vs A&M 33-17 despite being outFD’d (30-17) and outgained (510-305). Rhoads benched QB Jantz after 3 series (int’d on 1st pass) and Barnett (16-36-180) QB’d the rest of the way and is exp to get his 1st start here. Cyclones are #53 pass eff D (234, 57%, 12-3). TT is in a large Okla/Texas sandwich but Iowa St is on their 3rd road gm in 4 wks.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 45 IOWA ST 23

 

#21 PENN ST VS ILLINOIS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PENN ST 155
180
19
1.7
•••
ILLINOIS
125
170
12
2.8
-
IL’s Scheelhaase became the first Fr starting QB in B10 history to win in Happy Valley. Prior to LY’s win the Illini had never been within double digits of the Lions at PSU going 0-6. Multiple Lions defenders either missed or left the game due to inj’s. PSU has only 6 home losses in 6Y but is just 1-3 the yr after (this 1st time that B2B are at home). PSU trailed NW 24-20 late 2Q before shutting down the Cats 34-24 in Paterno’s record tying 408th win. QB McGloin went the distance in his 1st start of the yr hitting 17-26-192 and 2 TD. RB Redd (869, 5.3) now has 4 straight 100 yd gms in B10 play. Lions D are #5 FBS in scoring (13 ppg) and #8 (282) in ttl D. After a 6-0 start the Illini lost their 2nd straight 21-14 to Purdue. IL trailed 21-0 at HT before getting 2 4Q scores including 1 with :54 left to have the yd (366-304) and FD (21-15) edges. QB Scheelhaase (203, 65%, 11-5, 412 rush) has been cooled the L/2 (193, 56%, 1-2, 65 rush). Boilers became 1st FBS tm to shut down NCAA’s top sacker DE Mercilus (10). This is the Illini’s 2nd straight away and 3rd in 4W while PSU is playing with legit revenge and has a bye next week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 23 ILLINOIS 13

 

#22 GEORGIA VS FLORIDA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 120
195
26
1.5
-
FLORIDA
130
190
24
2.9
••
Jacksonville. UF has won 3 str and 18 of 21. LY UGA trailed 21-7 at HT and 21-10 into the 4Q. UGA forced OT with a 21 pt 4Q. In OT, UGA was int’d at the UF7 and lost on a 37 yd FG. LY was the 1st time S/’79 in which both tms were unranked. FL had a bye prior (and the tm with the bye advantage is 12-2 in the series S/’95) and TY both are off byes. Muschamp is a ‘94 grad of UGA playing safety from ‘91-’94. Both tms should be as healthy as they have been since the start of the ssn with UF probably getting QB Brantley (188 ypg, 65%, 5-3) and RB Demps (324, 8.3) back and UGA getting back LB Ogletree. UGA will be playing w/out NG Geathers and S Williams for the 1H serving a susp for their actions vs Vandy two wks ago but they have solid ply’rs to fill their spots incl NG Jenkins. The Bulldogs have won 5 straight since their 0-2 start and they are led by QB Murray who is avg 236 (61%) with a 16-7 ratio while true frosh RB Crowell leads with 608 (4.8). The Bulldogs in several gms have beaten tms far worse than what the final score indicates but breakdowns in ST’s have kept their opp in it. UF’s off has taken a nose dive w/out Brantley avg just 210 ypg and 9 ppg in their L/3 gms (albeit all vs ranked tms) and big physical tms (which UGA is) have worn down their front 7 as Bama/LSU each ran for 225+ yds. With SC (beat UGA earlier TY) losing their all-star RB Lattimore for the yr, the Bulldogs have their sights firmly squared on the SEC Title gm and with a slight edge on off (#19-37) and a vastly more exp’d HC they take a big step towards Atlanta here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 30 FLORIDA 13

 

#23 ARIZONA ST VS COLORADO

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA ST 172
310
43
1.5
•••
COLORADO
73
192
12
2.5
-
These two met in ‘06 and ‘07 with ASU dominating both. Colo is now on the road for the 3rd time in 4 wks and still riding their 21 consec AG losing streak (outgained 407-289 away TY). The Buffs were overmatched LW vs the Ducks as they continue to be plagued by numerous inj’s at key positions on the off and def (could be missing their starting QB, RB and top WR here). ASU is fresh off a bye, getting healthier on defense (‘10 P10 Frosh DPY Onyeali returns here from inj) and LY in a similar situation vs WSU shutout the Cougs 42-0). Expect this to be a statement game for the Sun Devils as they push forward for the P12 South Title, especially if the Buffs are forced to insert a QB making his 1st career start in the desert (Hirschman 8-18-71 LW vs Oregon).

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA ST 45 COLORADO 10

 

#25 WEST VIRGINIA VS RUTGERS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 80
333
29
3.3
-
RUTGERS
131
228
30
2.4

LW WV was outdone in every facet of the gm at Syracuse in a 26 pt loss (outgained 443-408, QB Smith 2 int). The Knights had some opportunities at L’ville but 3 int’s, 2 short missed FG’s and an easy TD pass dropped in the 4Q (WR 10 yds behind coverage) cost them in a 2 pt defeat to the Cardinals. WV has won 16 straight in the series. LTH WV led by 18 in the 2H, but up only 3, needed an int at their 35 w/1:59 left to seal it. LY WV dominated with a season high 523 yds (Smith 352 pass) but fmbl’d 3x inside the RU15 and RU got a garbage TD with 2:02 left but WV still won 35-14. RU has gone just 1-3 the L2Y when allowing 300+ pass yds (WV QB Smith avg 357 ypg TY) but Rutgers has the D (#31-64) and ST’s (#62-86) edges to make this one close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 28 RUTGERS 27

Upsets of the Week: 1-0 LW
OREGON ST OVER UTAH
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  • david

    thank you with your picks. do you pick against the spread.?