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Archive for November, 2011

Week 14 Top 25 Forecasts

November 30th, 2011 1 comment

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 100
170
16
2.6
-
LSU
170
145
30
2.3
•••
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20

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Week 13 News and Notes Part 2

November 30th, 2011 No comments

The Buffalo/Bowling Green game was a misleading 72 points. The two combined for just 700 yards offense. It was a very windy day, which effected the punts as there were scoring drives of 30, 66, 39 and 38 yds off punts. Off TO’s there were scores following a 42 yd IR TD, 28 yds and 28 yds (after blk’d punt).

Well, nobody really wanted to win the Pac-12 South this year. When Utah (over a 3 TD fav) lost to Colorado, UCLA clinched the P12. At night Arizona St now had nothing to play for even though it was their home finale and they needed to stop a 3 game losing streak. The Sun Devils were done in by a 4-1 TO deficit and also their D allowed Cal 484 yds. Cal actually had a 27-14 lead when ASU scored a TD on 4&10 with :52 left in the half and rec’d a fmbl’d KO and went 30/3pl for a TD to lead 28-27 at the half. Cal’s big play was a 3&4, 74 yd TD pas with 2:53 left in the 3Q to go up by 10 while ASU pulled within 41-38 after 3Q’s, Cal would get 19 and 30 yd FG’s while ASU turned it over 2x in the 4Q in their 47-38 win. Read more…

Week 13 Top Team Performances Plus News and Notes Part 1

November 28th, 2011 No comments

During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.

As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.

With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.

Top 25 Game Grades (Team Performances) Week 13

*Means Garbage Yards/Pts Were Subtracted (Includes all OT Yds/Pts)

OFF OFF OFF DEF DEF DEF Gm
Rank
FOE RUSH PASS PTS RUSH PASS PTS Grade
1
LSU Arkansas 286 208 41 47 207 17 112.2
2
HOUSTON AT Tulsa 84 474 48 159 175 16 111.4
3
USC UCLA 149 424 50 124 260 0 107.8
4
WISCONSIN Penn St 263 185 45 111 120 7 104.0
4
OREGON Oregon St 373 294 49 12 307 21 104.0
6
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 189 226 38 33 210 0 103.7
6
ALABAMA AT Auburn 218 184 42 75 63 14 103.7
8
S CAROLINA Clemson 210 210 34 70 83 13 99.0
9
OKLAHOMA Iowa St 253 256 26 128 126 6 97.6
10
STANFORD Notre Dame 196 233 28 57 252 14 96.5
11
VANDERBILT AT Wake Forest 297 184 41 146 183 7 95.2
12
BOISE ST Wyoming 210 264 36 97 80 14 92.3
13
MINNESOTA Illinois 248 85 27 82 78 7 91.6
14
CALIFORNIA AT Arizona St 247 237 47 148 257 38 90.8
14
GEORGIA AT Georgia Tech 128 252 31 243 112 17 90.8
16
BAYLOR Texas Tech 377 266 66 51 386 42 90.1
17
WASHINGTON Washington St 143 291 38 38 344 21 89.4
18
TEXAS AT Texas A&M 86 151 27 104 224 25 89.1
18
TEXAS A&M Texas 104 224 25 86 151 27 89.1
20
LOUISIANA TECH New Mexico St 202 217 44 160 119 0 86.9
21
MICHIGAN ST AT Northwestern 166 214 31 117 253 17 86.6
22
BOSTON COLL AT Miami, Fl 153 196 24 122 245 17 86.1
22
LOUISVILLE AT USF 132 241 34 64 247 24 86.1
24
FLORIDA ST AT Florida 30 65 21 54 130 7 84.7
25
S MISS Memphis 255 285 44 7 174 7 84.4

 

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Week 12 Pro Selections

November 26th, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-2 LW 87-46 65% TY

 

ARIZONA AT ST LOUIS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 108
188
18
1.7
#2
ST LOUIS 128
230
15
1.6
#29
The Cardinals were outplayed by the Rams in Bradford’s return from a high ankle sprain getting outgained 400-262 in the 1st matchup TY. Special teams blunders cost STL the game as they had a 42 yd FG blocked on the final play of reg and gave up a 99 yd PR for TD after the 1st drive of OT to lose. This is ARZ’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and they are off their rivalry game vs SF with DAL on deck. The Skelton offense caught up to ARZ LW as they were lucky to be down 9-0 at the half. SF had 12-2 FD and 249-52 yd edges but on 6 drives to the ARZ 31 settled for 3 FG’s missing another 3. This exposed ARZ’s 2 wins for what they were: defense and special teams victories. ARZ has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 5 of their L6 games while giving up an avg of 142 ypg (4.3) in their L6. STL was held to 185 yds LW as they played without both OT’s due to injury after benching their #1 Ctr the week before. SEA’s front 7 stacked up vs Jackson who was held to 42 yds (2.8) and 13 of their first 14 drives ended as a punt or TO. I’ll go with the home team vs an ARZ team that came back to earth LW.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 23 ARIZONA 17 Read more…

FCS Playoff Forecasts

November 26th, 2011 No comments

Grambling vs Southern

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GRAMBLING 165
185
26
3.2
-
SOUTHERN
75
320
21
2.7
-
The Bayou Classic. This series is tied at 29-29 (incl a ‘72 Southern forfeit). Grambling started the season 1-4 including 1-3 in SWAC play, but all the chips have fallen right and with a win over Southern, they will face Alabama A&M in the SWAC Championship game. While Southern is guaranteed an overall losing season they can still have a winning conf record with the upset here. In their last game the Jaguars upset Alabama St which kept them out of the Championship game. Grambling has won 3 straight in the series by an avg 18 ppg and should make it 4 in a row here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GRAMBLING 27 SOUTHERN 24

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Week 13 Selections for Every Game!

November 25th, 2011 No comments
Tuesday, November 22nd Phil Steele Weekly
Poll
Comp
PTS
Comp
Yds
 +/- Gm
Grade
Vegas
7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) at Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio
By 7 78% 24-21 394-288 By 2.50 By 7.88 By 9
Wednesday, November 24th Phil Steele Weekly
Poll
Comp
PTS
Comp
Yds
Gm
Grade
Vegas
8:00 PM ET Texas at Texas A&M Texas A&M A&M A&M A&M A&M A&M
By 1 78% 29-18 377-290 By 10.75 By 7.17 By 7.5
Friday, November 25th Phil Steele Weekly
Poll
Comp
PTS
Comp
Yds
 +/- Gm
Grade
Vegas
11:00 AM ET Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU
By 10 94% 45-25 532-348 By 21 By 16.83 By 19.5
11:00 AM ET Louisville at South Florida USF USF USF USF USF USF USF
By 10 69% 21-13 412-263 By 8 By 13.41 By 3
12:00 PM ET Houston at Tulsa UH UH UH UH Tulsa UH UH
By 7 80% 43-42 558-539 By 0.75 By 6.62 By 3
12:00 PM ET Iowa at Nebraska NEB NEB NEB NEB NEB NEB NEB
By 3 90% 31-21 447-300 By 7.75 By 10.88 By 9.5
12:00 PM ET Kent State at Temple TU TU TU TU TU TU TU
By 14 93% 30-9 389-236 By 17 By 19.58 By 16.5
12:00 PM ET Bowling Green at Buffalo UB BGSU BGSU UB UB UB UB
By 6 53% 27-21 376-346 By 1.50 By 0.77 By 2
1:00 PM ET Akron at Western Michigan WMU WMU WMU WMU WMU WMU WMU
By 42 97% 50-12 564-341 By 37.25 By 25.15 By 27.5
2:00 PM ET Toledo at Ball State UT UT UT UT UT UT UT
By 14 87% 48-37 594-426 By 9.75 By 17.25 By 12.5
2:30 PM ET Arkansas at LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU
By 7 86% 37-25 415-275 By 14 By 12.65 By 13
3:30 PM ET Colorado at Utah Utah Utah Utah Utah Utah Utah Utah
By 10 97% 35-11 387-270 By 24.75 By 16.73 By 20.5
3:30 PM ET Boston College at Miami (FL) M(FL) M(FL) M(FL) M(FL) M(FL) M(FL) M(FL)
By 17 97% 24-10 414-231 By 12.25 By 16.85 By 14.5
7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU WVU WVU WVU WVU WVU WVU
By 3 91% 35-28 492-345 By 5.75 By 12.29 By 7
7:00 PM ET UTEP at UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF
By 14 86% 32-19 462-313 By 11 By 16.25 By 10
10:15 PM ET California at Arizona State ASU ASU Tie Cal Cal ASU ASU
By 10 75% 23-23 398-392 By 0.75 By 2.15 By 5.5 Read more…

Week 13 Surprise College Fantasy

November 25th, 2011 No comments

Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 10. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 7-3! I am currently 75-37-10 (67%) on the picks so far this season and the last 6 weeks I am 45-14-1 (76%).

QUARTERBACKS:

 

My QB’s of the Week: Jonathan Perry, UAB, Mike Glennon, NC State and Matt Faulkner, San Jose St Read more…

Thanksgiving Texas/Texas A&M Selections!

November 24th, 2011 No comments
Thursday, November 17th PHIL
STEELE
Weekly Poll Computer PTS Computer Yds  +/- Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM ET Texas at Texas A&M Texas A&M A&M A&M A&M A&M A&M
By 1 78% 29-18 377-290 By 10.75 By 7.17 By 7.5

Week 13 Top 25 Forecasts

November 23rd, 2011 No comments

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 14-8 (64%) and so far this season I am 190-47 (80%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

# 1 LSU vs #3 ARKANSAS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARKANSAS 65
210
25
2.3
LSU
245
170
37
1.6
-
SEC West/Nat’l Title Implications in the Battle for the Golden Boot. Ark has outgained LSU 5 str and won 3 of 4 outright. LY Ark had a 464-294 yd edge with a pair of 80 yd TD passes. LSU did win the last time here as they kicked a 41-yd FG w/:04 to force OT (Ark missed 35 yd FG in OT). This tightly contested series has been decided by 8 or less the L6Y with the cumulative score Ark 185-184. LW both tms took care of business as LSU dispatched Ole Miss 52-3 as they outgained the Rebels 458-195 but did have 2 Def TD’s. The Tigers matched their best start S/’58 as QB Jefferson got his 2nd str st (4-0 ratio). LW the Razorbacks had a 44-17 easy win over Miss St. QB Wilson had a school record 32 comp and leads the SEC avg 292 ypg (63%) with a 21-5 ratio. LSU is 10-2 in home finales. Ark does have slight off (#10-15) and ST’s (#2-25) edges while LSU has the def edge (#2-25). With the recent series history, this one comes down to the wire once again but it’s tough going against the Tigers at home in a big game under Miles.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 31 ARKANSAS 24 Read more…

Tonight’s Forecast!

November 22nd, 2011 1 comment
Phil Steele Wkly
Poll
Comp
PTS
Comp
Yds
 +/- Gm
Grade
Vegas
7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) at Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio
By 7 78% 24-21 394-288 By 2.5 By 7.88 By 9