Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| GEORGIA |
100 |
170
|
16
|
2.6
|
-
|
| LSU |
170
|
145
|
30
|
2.3
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•••
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LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
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Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20
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Read more…
The Buffalo/Bowling Green game was a misleading 72 points. The two combined for just 700 yards offense. It was a very windy day, which effected the punts as there were scoring drives of 30, 66, 39 and 38 yds off punts. Off TO’s there were scores following a 42 yd IR TD, 28 yds and 28 yds (after blk’d punt).
Well, nobody really wanted to win the Pac-12 South this year. When Utah (over a 3 TD fav) lost to Colorado, UCLA clinched the P12. At night Arizona St now had nothing to play for even though it was their home finale and they needed to stop a 3 game losing streak. The Sun Devils were done in by a 4-1 TO deficit and also their D allowed Cal 484 yds. Cal actually had a 27-14 lead when ASU scored a TD on 4&10 with :52 left in the half and rec’d a fmbl’d KO and went 30/3pl for a TD to lead 28-27 at the half. Cal’s big play was a 3&4, 74 yd TD pas with 2:53 left in the 3Q to go up by 10 while ASU pulled within 41-38 after 3Q’s, Cal would get 19 and 30 yd FG’s while ASU turned it over 2x in the 4Q in their 47-38 win. Read more…
During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.
As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.
With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.
Top 25 Game Grades (Team Performances) Week 13
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*Means Garbage Yards/Pts Were Subtracted (Includes all OT Yds/Pts)
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OFF |
OFF |
OFF |
DEF |
DEF |
DEF |
Gm |
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Rank
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|
|
FOE |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
Grade |
|
1
|
LSU |
|
Arkansas |
286 |
208 |
41 |
47 |
207 |
17 |
112.2 |
|
2
|
HOUSTON |
AT |
Tulsa |
84 |
474 |
48 |
159 |
175 |
16 |
111.4 |
|
3
|
USC |
|
UCLA |
149 |
424 |
50 |
124 |
260 |
0 |
107.8 |
|
4
|
WISCONSIN |
|
Penn St |
263 |
185 |
45 |
111 |
120 |
7 |
104.0 |
|
4
|
OREGON |
|
Oregon St |
373 |
294 |
49 |
12 |
307 |
21 |
104.0 |
|
6
|
VIRGINIA TECH |
|
Virginia |
189 |
226 |
38 |
33 |
210 |
0 |
103.7 |
|
6
|
ALABAMA |
AT |
Auburn |
218 |
184 |
42 |
75 |
63 |
14 |
103.7 |
|
8
|
S CAROLINA |
|
Clemson |
210 |
210 |
34 |
70 |
83 |
13 |
99.0 |
|
9
|
OKLAHOMA |
|
Iowa St |
253 |
256 |
26 |
128 |
126 |
6 |
97.6 |
|
10
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STANFORD |
|
Notre Dame |
196 |
233 |
28 |
57 |
252 |
14 |
96.5 |
|
11
|
VANDERBILT |
AT |
Wake Forest |
297 |
184 |
41 |
146 |
183 |
7 |
95.2 |
|
12
|
BOISE ST |
|
Wyoming |
210 |
264 |
36 |
97 |
80 |
14 |
92.3 |
|
13
|
MINNESOTA |
|
Illinois |
248 |
85 |
27 |
82 |
78 |
7 |
91.6 |
|
14
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CALIFORNIA |
AT |
Arizona St |
247 |
237 |
47 |
148 |
257 |
38 |
90.8 |
|
14
|
GEORGIA |
AT |
Georgia Tech |
128 |
252 |
31 |
243 |
112 |
17 |
90.8 |
|
16
|
BAYLOR |
† |
Texas Tech |
377 |
266 |
66 |
51 |
386 |
42 |
90.1 |
|
17
|
WASHINGTON |
† |
Washington St |
143 |
291 |
38 |
38 |
344 |
21 |
89.4 |
|
18
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TEXAS |
AT |
Texas A&M |
86 |
151 |
27 |
104 |
224 |
25 |
89.1 |
|
18
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TEXAS A&M |
|
Texas |
104 |
224 |
25 |
86 |
151 |
27 |
89.1 |
|
20
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LOUISIANA TECH |
|
New Mexico St |
202 |
217 |
44 |
160 |
119 |
0 |
86.9 |
|
21
|
MICHIGAN ST |
AT |
Northwestern |
166 |
214 |
31 |
117 |
253 |
17 |
86.6 |
|
22
|
BOSTON COLL |
AT |
Miami, Fl |
153 |
196 |
24 |
122 |
245 |
17 |
86.1 |
|
22
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LOUISVILLE |
AT |
USF |
132 |
241 |
34 |
64 |
247 |
24 |
86.1 |
|
24
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FLORIDA ST |
AT |
Florida |
30 |
65 |
21 |
54 |
130 |
7 |
84.7 |
|
25
|
S MISS |
|
Memphis |
255 |
285 |
44 |
7 |
174 |
7 |
84.4 |
Two years ago I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished my first year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%). Last year I had another successful year with a winning week every week and an overal 103-45-17 (70%) record.
This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 10. Keep in mind you will not find players like Andrew Luck, Denard Robinson, LaMichael James or Justin Blackmon in my picks. These are strictly surprise picks of players who are flying under the radar. Last week I went 7-3! I am currently 75-37-10 (67%) on the picks so far this season and the last 6 weeks I am 45-14-1 (76%).
QUARTERBACKS:
My QB’s of the Week: Jonathan Perry, UAB, Mike Glennon, NC State and Matt Faulkner, San Jose St Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 14-8 (64%) and so far this season I am 190-47 (80%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
# 1 LSU vs #3 ARKANSAS
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| ARKANSAS |
65 |
210
|
25
|
2.3
|
•
|
| LSU |
245
|
170
|
37
|
1.6
|
-
|
|
|
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SEC West/Nat’l Title Implications in the Battle for the Golden Boot. Ark has outgained LSU 5 str and won 3 of 4 outright. LY Ark had a 464-294 yd edge with a pair of 80 yd TD passes. LSU did win the last time here as they kicked a 41-yd FG w/:04 to force OT (Ark missed 35 yd FG in OT). This tightly contested series has been decided by 8 or less the L6Y with the cumulative score Ark 185-184. LW both tms took care of business as LSU dispatched Ole Miss 52-3 as they outgained the Rebels 458-195 but did have 2 Def TD’s. The Tigers matched their best start S/’58 as QB Jefferson got his 2nd str st (4-0 ratio). LW the Razorbacks had a 44-17 easy win over Miss St. QB Wilson had a school record 32 comp and leads the SEC avg 292 ypg (63%) with a 21-5 ratio. LSU is 10-2 in home finales. Ark does have slight off (#10-15) and ST’s (#2-25) edges while LSU has the def edge (#2-25). With the recent series history, this one comes down to the wire once again but it’s tough going against the Tigers at home in a big game under Miles.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 31 ARKANSAS 24 Read more…
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