January 2nd Bowl Forecasts!!!

TICKETCITY BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 12:00 p.m.
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PENN ST (9-3) VS HOUSTON (12-1)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
PENN ST 182
150
21
2.4
-
99.2
HOUSTON
98
390
34
2.1
-
91.3
PSU is 2-0 vs UH but the last gm was in ‘77. It’s hard to believe that PSU headed into their bye the B10’s highest ranked tm with a league best 8-1 rec’d (loss to #2 Bama), their BCS destiny in their own hands and the NCAA’s all-time winning HC on the sidelines. The Lions now head into uncharted waters playing in a new bowl for an interim HC for the 1st time in schl hist. Bradley will remain the HC for the bowl. UH, like PSU, controlled its own destiny for bigger and better things. Sumlin was 1-1 in bowls with both being in Dallas but new HC Tony Levine will cch the the Cougs here (was an asst). PSU has played in the Cotton Bowl venue 3x’s (2-0-1) most recently in ‘74. Due to the scandal PSU fell precipitously down the B10 bowl ladder being passed over the players expressed anger at not playing in a more prestigious bowl. UH should draw a nice crowd playing in their home state. PSU is 6-3 vs bowl tms being outscored 18-16 and outgained 324-317 while UH was 5-1 outscored foes 42-28 and outgaining them 506-432. PSU was 4-1 on the road and UH was a perfect 6-0. PSU has a very Sr laden club with 13 among their 20 upperclassmen. UH has 11 Sr st’rs with 15 upperclassmen. If you weight the intangibles section it pretty much sums up this gm. The Cougars may have looked past SM and after thinking BCS for the last month, are now in this bowl. The Lions players gave an initial reaction of disappointment, but fiery interim HC Bradley will turn that around as PSU is an underdog to a CUSA tm.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 28 HOUSTON 27

OUTBACK BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m.
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MICHIGAN ST (10-3) VS GEORGIA (10-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
MICHIGAN ST 70
220
26
2.1
•••
97.0
GEORGIA
100
245
24
2.2
-
99.7
MSU has had the B10’s best reg ssn conf rec’d (14-2) incl wins over Wisc in both reg ssn matchups the L2Y but despite HC Dantonio’s pressn slogan of “P4RB” (Prepare for the Rose Bowl) they failed to make it to the Rose or another BCS bowl due to the league’s tie breaking procedures in 2010 and their wild rematch loss to Wisky in the inaugural B10 Champ gm. Even more galling for Sparty is that their hated rival Mich claimed a BCS slot while league newcomer Nebraska claimed the more prestigious Capital One Bowl dropping them to the Outback. This is still just their 4th Jan bowl S/’89 and they won 10 or more gms in B2B ssns for the 1st time in prog hist. The Spartans are 0-4 in bowls under Dantonio with memories of LY’s embarrassing 49-7 NY’s Day filleting by Bama being a primary offssn motivator for TY’s tm. UGA overcame an 0-2 start with HC Richt firmly on the hot seat only to win their next 10 (longest ssn win streak S/’82) before dropping the SEC Title gm. The Bulldogs make their 15th str bowl appearance (11-3) and it is their 4th time here in that span (3-0) but 1st appearance S/’04. Richt is 7-3 in bowls but LY had a miserable outing losing 10-6 to UCF. UGA was 5-3 vs bowl tms TY outscoring foes 29-26 and outgaining them 391-295. MSU went 5-3 outscoring foes 25-23 and outgaining them 362-276. Very few tms fall in the Top 12 of total D, rush D and pass D in the NCAA rankings but both of these tms do. In my overall rankings, I have UGA #6 and MSU #8 and each tm is built similarly. Both tms want to run the ball, and both tms can stop the run. The difference here for me is that Richt has proven to be a better bowl coach than Dantonio to date and I’ll call for the Bulldogs to get the close win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 MICHIGAN ST 23

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m.
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NEBRASKA (9-3) VS SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEBRASKA 195
75
22
2.0
••••
96.5
SOUTH CAROLINA
170
150
24
2.2
-
102.7
This is the 4th meeting between the schools (Neb 3-0) with the last in ‘87 and the 1st matchup with the Ol’ Ball Coach Spurrier since the ‘95 Nat’l Champ gm which the Huskers won 62-24 in the Fiesta Bowl. This is NU’s 2nd trip to Orlando (45-21 loss to GT in ‘90) and Pelini is 3-1 in bowls with this being his 1st matchup with an SEC tm. Spurrier is 7-10 all-time in bowls and just 1-4 at SC. SC is 4-12 all-time in bowls incl some embarrassing bowl losses in recent yrs to Iowa (31-10) and Conn (20-7) but this will be their 1st Capital One gm (Spurrier 2-0 here at UF). On the road TY NU was 3-2 despite being outscored 27-26 although they had a 385-367 yd edge. SC was 4-1 outscoring foes 31-28 but got outgained 340-312. Overall NU went 6-3 vs bowl squads outscoring them 27-25 and outgaining them 374-364. The Gamecocks were 5-2 vs bowl tms outscoring their foes 25-20 and outgaining them 324-288. NU has 9 Sr’s st’rs and 19 upperclassmen while SC has 6 Sr st’rs among 15 upperclassmen. With the offenses almost even, I’ll certainly go with the tm that not only has a better defense, but has a game-changing unit. Nebraska has underachieved all year on the defensive side and now their DC is headed to FAU. The Gamecocks imploded with now-departed QB Garcia but Shaw is the type of game manager I prefer that will limit the mistakes and SC gets the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 NEBRASKA 20

GATOR BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m.
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FLORIDA (6-6) VS OHIO ST (6-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
FLORIDA 118
190
26
2.2
-
101.7
OHIO ST
187
100
21
1.2
-
95.0
For 2 tms with a comb 12-12 record the Gator Bowl got their dream matchup instantly dubbed the “Urban Meyer Bowl”. Meyer will not coach here but of course, will have plenty of insight to share on UF’s personnel of whom all but 2 ply’rs ply’d for, signed with or were recruited by him. This is the 2nd meeting ever between these prog’s with the 1st coming in the ‘06 Nat’l Champ gm when Meyer’s Gators chomped the Bucks 41-14. OSU’s 1-9 bowl rec’d vs the SEC is also infamous with LY’s controversial 31-26 Sugar Bowl win as a over Ark which was vacated (NCAA atonement). UF makes its 21st consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) but this will be Muschamp’s first as HC. The Gators make their 1st trip here for a bowl S/’92 (6-2 all-time in Gator Bowls) but they do play their annual series vs UGA in this stadium losing 24-20 earlier TY. This is OSU’s 1st trip to FL for a bowl gm S/’NYD ‘02 where they are 2-8 including a 7 gm losing streak. OSU went 1-4 on the road TY being outgained by 84 ypg. UF was 1-4 on the road TY getting outscored 22-19 and outgained 337-283 and was a dismal 1-6 vs bowl tms losing by an avg of 26-13 while getting outgained 317-244. Rematch of the ‘06 Nat’l Champ and it surely is surprising to see both tms at 6-6. It has been 23 yrs since OSU’s had a losing rec’d and 32 yrs since UF has. Both tms are loaded with top-notch players and while UF has more spd, OSU has the advantage of Meyer’s input with these players he recruited. It comes down to matchups with the very mobile QB Braxton Miller, which is a big advantage.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 23 FLORIDA 21

ROSE BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 5:00 p.m.
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WISCONSIN (11-2) VS OREGON (11-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
WISCONSIN 200
210
40
2.3
-
94.0
OREGON
275
195
40
2.6
•••
99.3
The Badgers and Ducks have met 4x’s (last in ‘01) with UW winning 3 of 4. UW makes B2B Rose Bowl trips for the 2nd time in schl hist (‘98-’99) and their 8th visit overall where they are 3-4 (3-1 L/4). LY UW scored a TD with 2:00 but had the tying 2 pt conv pass knocked down in a 21-19 loss to TCU in which they outgained the Frogs 385-301. UO is in its 3rd str BCS bowl (all under HC Kelly, 0-2) incl their 2nd Rose Bowl as they lost 26-17 to Ohio St in ‘09. The Ducks have been to Pasadena 5x’s in their postssn hist with their lone win coming in 1917. Wisky fans sold out their allotment of 25,000 tickets in less than 48 hrs. Both tms faced Oreg St at home this ssn with UW delivering a shutout in Madison 35-0 and UO clinching a berth in the P12 Title gm with their 49-21 Civil War victory. UW was 4-2 outside of Madison incl B2B losses to MSU and OSU on late 4Q “Hail Mary” passes. The Badgers are 6-2 in gms vs bowl tms TY (MSU 2x) outscoring them by 20 ppg and outgaining them by 120. UO went 4-1 on the road TY and 6-2 vs bowl caliber tms (44-28 scoring and 481-397 yd edges) incl meetings vs BCS #1 LSU (lost 40-27) and #4 Stanford (won 53-30). The general consensus would be size vs spd but a closer look shows that does not hold true. Wisconsin has skill players with great spd, just not enough to match the quickness of Oregon and UW has the perception of size but the Ducks can match them at most positions. Both tms will be able to score but I think Oregon after two str disappointing BCS bowls plays with a “Chip” on their shoulders.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 38 WISCONSIN 35

FIESTA BOWL
Monday, January 2nd @ 8:300 p.m.
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STANFORD (11-1) VS OKLAHOMA ST (11-1)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
STANFORD 220
270
32
3.6
-
103.8
OKLAHOMA ST
100
370
40
2.5
98.4
Nice matchup here between the BCS’s #3 and #4 tms with no previous meetings. This gm triggered talk of instituting a ‘Plus One’ system as OSU finished #3 by the closest margin in BCS history. First ever trip for the Cardinal to the Fiesta and 2nd str BCS gm as they dominated VT in the Orange Bowl LY. This is HC Shaw’s 1st bowl but he was on Harbaugh’s staff for both of Stan’s previous 2. The Cowboys won their prev Fiesta matchup, 16-6 over BYU in ‘74 and this is their 1st trip to a BCS bowl. Gundy has led OSU to its 1st conf title since WWII and a schl rec’d 6 str postssn appearances (3-2). The Cardinal are 23-2 over the L2Y (both losses vs Oreg) while the Cowboys are 22-3. Stan and OSU faced Ariz in B2B wks with nearly identical outcomes as the Cardinal won 37-10 (567-333 yd edge) and the Cowboys posted a 37-14 win (594-439 yd edge). Stan was 5-0 on the road TY and 5-1 vs bowl caliber tms with scoring (43-31) and yd (465-378) edges. OSU was 5-1 on the road and 8-1 vs bowl tms (47-29 scoring and 539-462 yd edges). Both of these tms would’ve taken part in a National Championship “Plus-One” scenario. They now face off to finish the probable AP #2. I’ll always favor a superior D with time to prepare vs a passing offense and that’s what you have with Stanford. The Cardinal have a physical run/short pass gm unlike any the Cowboys have seen this season and get the upset win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 37 OKLAHOMA ST 35

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  • Chiefuppy

    not too of a day Phil..what about tonite’s game You michigan sir??