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Archive for May, 2012

2012 Lettermen Returning/Lost

May 28th, 2012 5 comments

Today’s blog starts my in-depth look at my New and Improved Experience Chart. For 7 years I had listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. In 2009, I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.

Today I will look at the returning letterman/lost percentages.

Last year I went back and looked at percentages of lettermen returning and lost. Using percentages is more reliable than the amount of returning or lost lettermen because schools give out letters in different manners. Some schools hand out a lot of letters and others far fewer. Getting a letter at Syracuse under Paul Pasqualoni was tough, as he handed out just 38 total letters in 2004 and 40 in 2003. This year the low’s went to Ball St with 46 while Connecticut under Pasqualoni had 49. Nebraska in 2001 handed out 82 letters or over double what Syracuse was giving out. It was also the most given out by any school in the previous 6 years. In 2007, Ohio broke all records with an amazing 91 letters given out while Hawaii had 90! Last year BYU was number one with 89 total letters given out while Florida St was #2 with 88.

Returning Letterman/Lost %

Rank
Team Returning Lost % Total
1
UTSA 53 9 85.48% 62
2
Florida 55 10 84.62% 65
3
WKU 48 10 82.76% 58
4
Stanford 61 16 79.22% 77
4
Oregon 61 16 79.22% 77
6
Mississippi 60 16 78.95% 76
7
FIU 48 13 78.69% 61
8
Utah 58 16 78.38% 74
9
Tulane 56 16 77.78% 72
10
Central Michigan 45 13 77.59% 58
11
Florida St 68 20 77.27% 88
12
Baylor 54 16 77.14% 70
13
Louisville 47 14 77.05% 61
14
Georgia Tech 53 16 76.81% 69
15
Louisiana Tech 46 14 76.67% 60
16
Tennessee 49 15 76.56% 64
17
Mississippi St 54 17 76.06% 71
18
Rutgers 43 14 75.44% 57
19
Ohio 49 16 75.38% 65
20
Arizona 55 18 75.34% 73
21
Pittsburgh 53 18 74.65% 71
21
Houston 53 18 74.65% 71
23
Memphis 41 14 74.55% 55
24
FAU 46 16 74.19% 62
25
UCLA 51 18 73.91% 69
26
South Alabama 47 17 73.44% 64
27
Buffalo 55 20 73.33% 75
28
Miami (Oh) 49 18 73.13% 67
29
BYU 65 24 73.03% 89
30
Georgia 54 20 72.97% 74
31
Wyoming 43 16 72.88% 59
32
Marshall 48 18 72.73% 66
32
Texas St 48 18 72.73% 66
32
Boston Coll 40 15 72.73% 55
35
Eastern Michigan 45 17 72.58% 62
36
Bowling Green 42 16 72.41% 58
37
Wake Forest 55 21 72.37% 76
38
Illinois 41 16 71.93% 57
39
Northern Illinois 53 21 71.62% 74
40
Michigan St 50 20 71.43% 70
40
Oklahoma St 50 20 71.43% 70
42
Army 57 23 71.25% 80
43
Minnesota 52 21 71.23% 73
44
Umass 42 17 71.19% 59
45
Arkansas 49 20 71.01% 69
46
Washington St 44 18 70.97% 62
47
Auburn 48 20 70.59% 68
47
East Carolina 48 20 70.59% 68
47
Boise St 48 20 70.59% 68
50
USF 45 19 70.31% 64
51
Oregon St 52 22 70.27% 74
52
Oklahoma 49 21 70.00% 70
52
Temple 49 21 70.00% 70
52
Louisiana 49 21 70.00% 70
55
Kansas 51 22 69.86% 73
56
South Carolina 44 19 69.84% 63
57
Toledo 48 21 69.57% 69
58
Indiana 50 22 69.44% 72
59
Hawaii 54 24 69.23% 78
60
Kent St 38 17 69.09% 55
61
Northwestern 58 26 69.05% 84
62
Tulsa 41 19 68.33% 60
62
ULM 41 19 68.33% 60
64
Texas 43 20 68.25% 63
64
Idaho 43 20 68.25% 63
66
Air Force 51 24 68.00% 75
67
Michigan 50 24 67.57% 74
67
California 50 24 67.57% 74
69
Vanderbilt 43 21 67.19% 64
69
Cincinnati 43 21 67.19% 64
71
Troy 47 23 67.14% 70
72
Texas Tech 49 24 67.12% 73
72
Kentucky 49 24 67.12% 73
74
Nebraska 56 28 66.67% 84
74
Arizona St 52 26 66.67% 78
74
Arkansas St 52 26 66.67% 78
74
Ohio St 48 24 66.67% 72
74
Clemson 48 24 66.67% 72
74
Iowa St 44 22 66.67% 66
74
Kansas St 44 22 66.67% 66
74
Duke 44 22 66.67% 66
74
UAB 44 22 66.67% 66
74
UCF 42 21 66.67% 63
74
West Virginia 36 18 66.67% 54
85
Texas A&M 53 27 66.25% 80
86
UTEP 45 23 66.18% 68
87
Fresno St 35 18 66.04% 53
88
Purdue 50 26 65.79% 76
89
New Mexico 46 24 65.71% 70
90
Syracuse 42 22 65.63% 64
90
Maryland 42 22 65.63% 64
90
TCU 42 22 65.63% 64
93
Virginia Tech 43 23 65.15% 66
94
Akron 41 22 65.08% 63
95
North Carolina 39 21 65.00% 60
96
Utah St 50 27 64.94% 77
97
UNLV 46 25 64.79% 71
98
Rice 44 24 64.71% 68
99
Washington 42 23 64.62% 65
99
Southern Miss 42 23 64.62% 65
101
Iowa 40 22 64.52% 62
102
Western Michigan 34 19 64.15% 53
102
New Mexico St 34 19 64.15% 53
104
Wisconsin 41 23 64.06% 64
104
Alabama 41 23 64.06% 64
106
Ball St 30 17 63.83% 47
107
SMU 35 20 63.64% 55
108
Colorado St 40 23 63.49% 63
108
San Diego St 40 23 63.49% 63
110
Connecticut 31 18 63.27% 49
111
LSU 43 25 63.24% 68
112
Miami (Fla) 41 24 63.08% 65
113
Missouri 37 22 62.71% 59
114
Virginia 42 25 62.69% 67
115
San Jose St 38 23 62.30% 61
116
Middle Tennessee 41 26 61.19% 67
117
Penn St 35 23 60.34% 58
118
NC State 31 21 59.62% 52
119
Colorado 44 31 58.67% 75
120
Nevada 31 23 57.41% 54
121
Notre Dame 41 31 56.94% 72
122
North Texas 35 27 56.45% 62
123
USC 36 28 56.25% 64
124
Navy 38 36 51.35% 74

UTSA is #1 here in % of lettermen returning with 53 of 62 players back (85.48%). This should come as no surprise as they are just a 2nd-year program. I expect big things out of Florida this year and the Gators are #2 with 55 out of 65 lettermen returning (84.62%). At the bottom of the rankings is Navy which returns only 51.35% of their lettermen. This should not come as a concern though to Midshipmen fans as typically the Service Academies are among the lowest when it comes to returning experience. What is surprising is that probable preseason AP #1 USC sits at #123 as they lose 26 lettermen (56.25%) from last year and Notre Dame is #121 losing an incredible 31 lettermen.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #18 Stanford and #17 Nebraska. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

Career Offensive Line Starts Returning

May 28th, 2012 No comments

Today’s blog starts my in-depth look at my New and Improved Experience Chart. For 7 years I had listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. In 2009, I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.

Today I will look at the number of career starts returning for offensive lineman.

When most folks judge a team for the upcoming season they look at the QB, RB and WR’s that are returning. A few may take the time to look at star defensive players that are back (those with a lot of sacks or interceptions). However, very few look at the offensive line and yet the team that controls the line of scrimmage wins the game more often than not.

This year Ball St is the top team in the country with 115 career starts returning and they are clearly one of the top OL in the MAC with a couple of players making my Preseason All-MAC team. NC State is #2 with 112 starts returning and when you add that stat with a very good QB in Mike Glennon, you have a dangerous Wolf Pack team this year.   While everyone likes to talk about the dangerous skill positions that West Virginia has this year in QB Geno Smith, WR Tavon Austin and WR Stedman Bailey their OL is actually tied for #3 in the country with 105 career starts returning and that is yet another reason why the Mountaineer offense should be among the best in the country this year.

At the bottom of the list is Rice who has just 15 starts returning. Penn St and Virginia Tech are the 2 lowest BCS conference teams with just 17 career starts returning for each team and clearly the OL are my biggest question marks on both of those teams especially the Hokies.

Now experience on the O-line is not the only criteria for an offensive line’s potential for the next year. You have to add in the Blue Chips, how last year’s line performed (ypc rushing and sacks allowed), size, etc. That is how a team like USC can be just #66 in career starts returning but rated as my #4 overall OL this year.

Here are the rankings for all 124 teams with regards to Career OL Starts Returning.

Career OL Starts Returning

OL CAR OL CAR
Rank
Team STS
Rank
Team STS
1
Ball St 115
63
Washington 62
2
NC State 112
64
Arizona 61
3
West Virginia 105
64
South Carolina 61
3
Tennessee 105
66
USC 60
5
LSU 104
66
Vanderbilt 60
6
FIU 103
68
New Mexico St 59
7
Oklahoma 102
69
Indiana 58
8
Kent St 101
70
Washington St 57
9
Ohio 98
70
Mississippi 57
10
Eastern Michigan 95
70
FAU 57
10
Alabama 95
73
Colorado St 56
10
Texas A&M 95
73
Troy 56
13
Central Michigan 94
75
Iowa St 53
14
North Carolina 93
75
UTEP 53
15
Louisiana Tech 92
77
Pittsburgh 52
16
Duke 90
78
Fresno St 51
17
UCF 89
78
Colorado 51
18
Miami, Oh 88
80
Florida St 50
18
WKU 88
80
Tulane 50
20
Umass 85
80
Oregon St 50
21
Georgia Tech 83
80
Kentucky 50
22
UNLV 82
84
Purdue 49
23
Southern Miss 80
84
Wisconsin 49
24
Florida 79
86
Clemson 48
25
Bowling Green 78
86
Connecticut 48
26
Baylor 77
86
UTSA 48
26
BYU 77
89
Arizona St 47
28
Virginia 76
90
Maryland 46
28
Rutgers 76
90
USF 46
30
Kansas 75
92
Iowa 45
30
San Diego St 75
92
Army 45
30
Nevada 75
94
Nebraska 44
33
Louisville 74
94
Marshall 44
33
Michigan St 74
96
Kansas St 43
33
UCLA 74
96
Miss St 43
36
Northwestern 73
96
Texas St 43
36
Louisiana 73
99
Ohio St 42
38
Buffalo 72
99
Memphis 42
39
Houston 71
101
Minnesota 40
40
Tulsa 70
102
Air Force 39
41
Texas Tech 69
103
Stanford 37
41
ULM 69
103
Middle Tennessee 37
43
Illinois 68
105
Miami, Fl 36
43
East Carolina 68
106
Auburn 35
43
Western Michigan 68
107
Navy 34
43
Missouri 68
107
Akron 34
47
North Texas 67
109
Arkansas St 33
48
Boston College 66
110
Georgia 31
48
Utah St 66
110
Idaho 31
48
San Jose St 66
112
South Alabama 30
51
Notre Dame 65
113
Temple 29
51
New Mexico 65
114
Cincinnati 28
51
Utah 65
114
TCU 28
51
Oregon 65
116
Toledo 26
51
Arkansas 65
117
SMU 24
56
Michigan 64
117
Northern Illinois 24
56
Wyoming 64
119
Hawaii 20
56
Boise St 64
120
Wake Forest 19
59
Syracuse 63
121
Virginia Tech 17
59
Texas 63
121
Penn St 17
59
Oklahoma St 63
121
UAB 17
59
California 63
124
Rice 15

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #20 USF and #19 Michigan St. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

2012 Preseason All-American Team

May 28th, 2012 1 comment

About a week ago I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I wrap it up by releasing my 2012 All-American Team!

18 teams received at least one selection on my 1st-Team All-American list and it should come as no surprise that Alabama and LSU lead the way with the Tide having three 1st-Team selections (8 overall) and LSU having two 1st-Team selections (7 overall). USC who will probably be preseason AP #1 or #2 has three 1st-Team players (5 overall) while Arkansas and Texas A&M despite having zero 1st-Team selections have five players each. An overall 50 different schools had at least one player on my four teams! The SEC naturally led the way with 38 selections while the Pac-12 was 2nd with 18 players and the ACC 3rd with 17.

Download My Preseason All-American Team.PDF Here!

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #22 Michigan and #21 Notre Dame. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

2012 Preseason All-Big Ten and All-SEC Teams

May 28th, 2012 No comments

A couple days ago I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I will finish with the All-Big 10 and All-SEC teams.

9 of the 12 Big Ten teams have at least one 1st-Team selection on my Preseason All-Big 10 Team. 2x defending champ Wisconsin leads the way with seven 1st-team selections while Michigan St, Nebraska and Ohio St each have four 1st-Team players. The Spartans actually lead the way with an overall 16 players followed by Ohio St who has 15.

11 of the 14 teams in the SEC are represented with at least one 1st-Team selection. It should come as no surprise that Alabama and LSU lead the way with six players each while Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia each have three 1st-Team selections. LSU overall has the most players with 17 selections while Bama has 12 followed by Florida and Georgia who have 11.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #24 Virginia Tech and #23 South Carolina. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

2012 Preseason All-ACC and All-Big 12 Teams

May 28th, 2012 No comments

A couple days ago I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I will continue with the All-ACC and All-Big 12 teams

11 of the 12 ACC teams have at least one 1st-Team selection on my Preseason All-ACC Team. Clemson leads the way with six 1st-team selections while Florida St and North Carolina each have five 1st-Team players. The Seminoles do lead the way with an overall 20 players which is seven more than Clemson.

9 of the 10 teams in the Big 12 are represented with at least one 1st-Team selection. Oklahoma leads the way with seven players while defending champ Oklahoma St has five and Texas has four. Big 12 newcomers West Virginia and TCU are each well represented as the Moutaineers have three 1st-team selections while TCU has five 2nd-Team selections.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #26 Boise St and #25 West Virginia. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

 

Preseason All-Big East and All-Pac-12 Teams

May 21st, 2012 No comments

A couple days ago I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I will continue with the All-Big Eastand All-Pac-12 teams

7 of the 8 Big East Teams placed at least one player on my 1st-Team and Connecticut leads the way with seven 1st-Team selections including RB Lyle McCombs. USF, Pittsburgh and Rutgers who each have five selections. Overall, USF and Rutgers had the most players on the team with 19 each while Pittsburgh had 15.

11 of the 12 Pac-12 Teams feature at least one player on my 1st-Team. It should come as no surprise that USC leads the way with seven 1st-Team selections including All-American candidates QB Matt Barkley, WR Robert Woods and S TJ McDonald. Stanford was next in line with five 1st-Team selections while Oregon had four.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #28 Mississippi St and #27 Tennessee. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

15 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2012 MAGAZINE IS ON SALE!

ONLY 101 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Preseason All-CUSA and All-MW Teams

May 21st, 2012 No comments

A couple days ago I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I will continue with the All-CUSA and All-MW teams

CUSA has 10 teams with at least one 1st-Team selection and are led by defending CUSA Champ Southern Miss who has six players including DE/OLB Jamie Collins who is an All-American Candidate and possible early round pick in next year’s NFL Draft. UCF returns 16 st’rs this year and places five players on my 1st-Team while SMU and Tulsa each have four players that made my 1st-Team.

The All-MW team has definitely changed over the past couple of years as just a few years ago BYU, Utah and TCU players dominated my All-MW teams. This year Boise remains a MW favorite but are one of the most inexp’d teams in all of college football with just 7 st’rs back and have four players make my 1st-Team while surprisingly Colorado St leads the way six 1st-Team selections. MW Newcomers Nevada and Fresno St each have four players on my 1st-Team.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued today with #30 Texas A&M and #29 Auburn. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

17 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2012 MAGAZINE IS ON SALE!

ONLY 103 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Preseason All-MAC and All-Indepedent Teams

May 18th, 2012 No comments

In yesterday’s blog I started releasing my Preseason All Conference teams and today I will continue with the All-Independent and All-MAC teams

The MAC has 10 teams with two or more 1st-Team selections and are led by Bowling Green who has five players including 2 on their fine ST’s unit. Defending East Champ Ohio has four 1st-Team selections while Western Michigan and Miami, Ohio each have three 1st-Team players and are led by offensive stars WMU QB Alex Carder and Miami WR Nick Harwell.

The All-Independent team has naturally been dominated by ND players but with the addition of BYU last year, the team has gotten more balanced. This year ND again leads the way with 13 1st-Team selections (20 overall) while BYU has 11 1st-Team selections (18 overall). Navy and Army each have one 1st-Team player while Army has 7 players overall Navy has 6.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued the today with #32 Houston and #31 Ohio. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

18 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2012 MAGAZINE IS ON SALE!

ONLY 104 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Preseason All-WAC and All-Sun Belt Teams!

May 18th, 2012 No comments

In today’s blog I will start releasing my All Conference teams starting with the All-WAC and All-Sun Belt teams.

The Sun Belt is led by FIU and WKU who both have seven 1st Team All-Conference players including FIU RB Kedrick Rhodes and WKU TE Jack Doyle. Louisiana fresh off their first ever bowl game is well represented with six 1st Team players led by RB Alonzo Harris and Arkansas St has arguably one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Ryan Aplin.

In the WAC defending champ Louisiana Tech leads the way with nine 1st Team All-Conference players led by QB Colby Cameron and WR’s Quinton Patton and Myles White. San Jose St which was much improved LY and returns many of their key players also has nine 1st Team selections while Idaho and San Jose St each have four players on my 1st Team.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 40 Countdown which continued the today with #34 Louisville and #33 Utah. Every day now thru June 12th, I will post both magazine pages on each team that day and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember I will make those magazine pages available for only 24 hours for you to download.

19 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2012 MAGAZINE IS ON SALE!

ONLY 105 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Most Accurate Magazine the Last 14 Years!

May 18th, 2012 No comments

Today’s blog is about accuracy. I take great pride in the accuracy of my predictions in the magazine. I write each of the 124 team previews myself while most of the other magazines have each conference written by a different writer from that conferences area. I put my name on the front of the magazine and my goal each year is to pick every conference perfect. Naturally that is an unreasonable goal but my magazine is the MOST accurate over the past 14 years and it is not really close.

This year, Brandon Pertner who is one of the Assistant Editors here and a former radio producer and talk show host was kind enough to write an article on my magazine being the most accurate over the last 14 years. The scores are figured by taking each publication’s forecasting accuracy by comparing the predicted finish with the actual finish of each team in the conference.

In the last 14 years my overall score is 1,957. The closest magazine to me is Athlon at 1,990. That is a 33 point difference which is almost five touchdowns!!! Keep in mind this chart is similar to Golf scores in that the lower the score the more accurate the magazine.

Recently I have taken home 3 titles in the past eight years (2004, 2006, 2008)! In 2004, I had one of my best years and finished with just 125 points, which was 8 points better than my closest competitor The Sporting News. In 2006, I again won the title this time by 5 points over Athlon. Four years ago I bagged another title and this time I won by 4 points over Sports Illustrated and last year I just missed out on taking home another season title by a single point.

While I consider any year that I do not win the title to be a disappointment, last year I finished with a total score of 148 which put me #2 in the standings (Gameplan #1 with 147). Without a doubt the goal this year is to be back on top and hopefully see me take home my 4th season title in 9 years.

If you have any questions on the chart or need further explanation please refer to pages 316-317 of this year’s magazine or visit stassen.com

Check back tomorrow to get the first glimpse at my preseason 2012 All-SBC and All-MAC teams!!!