Archive

Archive for October, 2012

Top 25 – Week 10

October 31st, 2012 No comments

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week I was disappointed with the Top 25 forecast results as they only hit 12-7 63% but on the year they are still a solid 148-31 83%!! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which moved to 6-4 60% the last 6 weeks!

#1 ALABAMA AT #5 LSU

 

Read more…

Categories: Top 25 Games Tags:

Week 9 News & Notes (Part 2)

October 31st, 2012 2 comments

GAMES NOTES:

Bowling Green held Eastern Michigan to 178 yards and finished with a 356-178 yd edge. BG actually took their opening drive 77/6pl and got a 53 yd td pass. BG led 14-3 after 2 poss but punted on their next 3 poss and only had a 212-140 yd edge at the half. BG got a 23 yd FR td with 6:31 left 3Q but punted on their first 2 2H poss before driving 45/10pl for a 28 yd FG with 11:53 left. BG’s last drive took over with 9:10 left and they ran off the final 9:10 going 58/11.

Read more…

Categories: News & Notes Tags:

Week 9 News & Notes (Part 1)

October 29th, 2012 No comments

GAMES NOTES:

Hugh Freeze continues to be a magician as HC. Last year he took over an Arkansas St program and expectations were low and coming off a losing season he had guided them to 10-3. This year Mississippi was a consensus pick to finish last. Last week they snapped a 16 game SEC losing streak vs Auburn and now they’ve knocked off Arkansas on the road to pull to 2-2 in the SEC. Arkansas did have a 464-355 yd edge and 24-22 FD edges and Ole Miss is just 1 win away from bowl eligibility. Bo Wallace hit 29-37-278 yards and rushed 11 times for an additional 38. A blocked punt was one of the key plays. Ark took their opening drive 71/11pl but settled for a 22 yd FG. Ark went 85/10pl for a td pass, 10-0. The blk’d punt set up UM for a td to pull into the lead, 14-10 and UM led 21-17 at the half despite Ark having a 292-213 yd edge. Ark got a 5 yd td run with 2:09 left to tie it but UM went 63/7 getting a 31 yd FG on the last play for the win.

Read more…

Categories: News & Notes Tags:

Sunday Selections (Week 8)

October 28th, 2012 No comments

New England at St Louis

This is the 6th game in London and weather won’t be a factor with a dry week and a forecast of mid 40’s and sunny on game day. Huge edge to the Pats and Brady having just played here in 2009 as they beat TB 41-7 with a 414-240 yd edge. The offense has avg’d 470 ypg the L4W with their only loss self-inflicted as Brady threw 2 int’s after having just 1 in 185 att’s while also having several questionable time management issues. This week on the world stage, I expect New England’s offense to be the smooth running machine we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. The Rams under Fisher have looked competitive as they are only getting outgained by 9 ypg, but LW 8 of 18 FD’s (42%) and 186 of their 354 yds (53%) came in the 4Q. NE’s young D has been vulnerable vs the pass (#29 8.1 ypg, 6-7 ratio) but STL has a lack of talent at the receiver spot making them predictable has been held to 15 FD’s or fewer 4 times this year and they won’t keep up with a D that’s already let Rodgers and RG III to throw for a combined 76%.
Categories: nfl, NFL Picks Tags:

Top 25 – Week 9

October 24th, 2012 No comments

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 18-3 86% and on the year they are 136-24 85%!! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which moved to 5-2 the last 5 weeks after Maryland missed a 32 yard FG on the last play of the game in a 20-18 loss to NC State. For projected box scores, click here.

#1 ALABAMA VS #13 MISSISSIPPI ST

Last year the situation favored MSU as Bama was off of a bubble bursting loss to LSU in the game of the century. Bama still finished with a commanding 386-131 yard and 20-9 FD edges in a 24-7 win as MSU’s only score came on a 21 yard drive after a 69 yard KR. The Tide is 4-0 in this series but has the huge showdown at LSU on deck. Last week the Bulldogs, in a flat spot, got off to a slow start as they led just 17-3 midway through the 3Q but exploded for 28 points in the final 20:00 for a 45-3 win over Middle Tenn. QB Russell is one of the most improved QB’s in the country and has a 15-1 ratio. Bama has been AP’s #1 for a school record 8 straight weeks after their 44-13 win at Tennessee. The Tide had dominating 23-11 FD and 539-282 yard edges and QB McCarron is now #1 in the NCAA in pass eff with a 16-0 ratio. The Tide D is also #1 in scoring and total D for a second straight year. This is uncharted territory for the Bulldogs while Alabama is used to the spotlight, playing at home, with all of the talent edges.

Categories: Top 25 Games Tags:

Week 8 News & Notes (Part 2)

October 23rd, 2012 No comments

GAMES NOTES:

Notre Dame/BYU was expected to be a defensive struggle and it was. ND finished with a 389-243 yd edge with a couple of key plays setting up BYU scores in the 2Q. Theo Riddick ran for 143 yds and Cierre Wood for 114 vs a strong BYU D. ND missed a 40 yd FG on its opening drive. Everett Golson was inj’d and did not play and Tommy Rees hit 6-7 in the 1Q but finished just 7-16-117. ND had not allowed an offensive td in 17Q and gave up 2 in a span of 2:18. BYU got a 3&gl, 6 yd TD pass which also ended a streak of ND holding their opponents without a td on 11 straight drives in the redzone. A few plays later a ball bounced off the hands of ND WR Daniels, was deflected and int’d by Kyle Van Noy who ret’d it to the 30. In the 1Q ND had a 120-40 yd edge but only led 7-0 going 64/5pl for a td. BYU’s td was a 56/7pl drive for a td with 8:25 left in the 2Q. After an int, they needed 5 plays for another td, 14-7. ND missed a 28 yd FG with 2:30 left in the half. At half ND had a 201-128 yd edge. BYU went 46/9pl and missed a 46 yd FG, the Irish went 65/7pl for a 24 yd FG, 14-10 (2:24 3Q). ND went 72/8pl for a td, 17-14. BYU went 49/14 getting a FD at the ND31 but on 4&14 punted 44 yds for a tb. ND finished with 270 yards rushing and would grind out 3 FD’s before punting with :22 left. BYU was back on their own 20 and on 2&10 was int’d at their own 39.

 

Read more…

Categories: News & Notes Tags:

Week 8 News & Notes (Part 1)

October 22nd, 2012 No comments

GAMES NOTES

Louisiana had a commanding 20-6 lead vs North Texas and a 285-184 yd edge but NT, after a 27 yd punt, got a 2pl, 34 yd td to pull within 20-20 then got a FG for the lead, 23-20 with 11:44 left. UL tied it with 3:01 left on a 47 yd FG but on the key play of the game, on 3&8, NT QB Thompson threw a screen pass to Jimmerson who broke 2 huge tackles and raced 78 yards for a td with 1:54 left to deliver NT the win. UL fumbled at their own 32 on the next play.

 

SMU had an amazing 4 def td’s vs Houston but lead the game big. UH finished with a 30-20 FD and 560-384 yd edge. SMU’s first defensive td came with 1:03 left in the 1H to put them up 28-14. UH fumbled the opening KO and SMU returned it 20 yds for a td to make it 35-14 and after a 10 yd IR td, SMU had a commanding 45-14 lead. Later SMU led 59-28 when UH on 4&10 got a 49 yd td pass then got a 75 yd IR td to pull within 59-42 but SMU drove 75/15pl for a td then got a 36 yd IR td to close the scoring with 2:39 left. UH then gained 60 of their yards and 4 FD’s on their final drive.

Read more…

Categories: News & Notes Tags:

Top 25 – Week 8

October 17th, 2012 No comments

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 15-3 83% and on the year they are 118-21 85%!! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 5-1 the last 4 weeks!! To get projected box scores for theses Top 25 games, click here.

#1 Alabama at Tennessee

Finally this game returns to The Third Sat in October. It may surprise some to know that from ‘95-’06 UT was 10-2 in this series. Since Bama lost at UT 16-13 in ‘06, they are 5-0 and have won their last 2 trips here 29-9 in ‘08 (+193 yards) and 41-10 in ‘10 (+221 yards). Last year’s game was surprisingly tied 6-6 at the half with Bama only having a 157-114 yard edge but Saban let them know about his unhappiness and Bama did not allow a FD in the 2H and had a 280-41 yard edge winning 37-6. The #1 Tide again have the nation’s #1 D and last week the only td allowed came on a 98 yard KR as they rolled Mizzou 42-10 racking up a 355-37 rush yard edge! Bama is on its second straight away which didn’t occur last year. After last week’s loss to Miss St 41-31, UT has lost 14 straight vs ranked opponents with the avg loss by 19 points per game. Despite huge improvements in the run game (avg 185 ypg), the Vols are 3-3 and Dooley is on one of the hottest seats in America. While Bama is well rested off a bye and blowout, they may be peeking ahead to games against Mississippi St and LSU on deck. Read more…

Week 7 News & Notes (Part 2)

October 16th, 2012 No comments

GAMES NOTES

Giovani Bernard ran for 177 yards and North Carolina had a 485-415 yard edge. Stephen Morris was having a fine game for Miami and had hit just 12-26-155 yds. He had some crucial runs for 40 yds on 7 carries. He was helped off the field with 8:26 left. Bkp Ryan Williams hit 9-13-80. NC led 7-0 when they were int’d at the UM25 then on the next drive missed a 33 yd FG. UM punted but roughing the P kept the drive alive and they would go 80/12pl for a td. NC led 15-7 at the half with a 313-191 yd edge. UM got to 15-14 after a delay of game pen had then go for just a regular xp. NC got a 48 yd FG then missed a 43 yd FG. UM went 48/13 and on 3&6 was SOD at the NC26. Their final drive got to the NC29 but on 4&16 they gained 11 yds with :22 left.

 

Read more…

Week 7 News & Notes (Part 1)

October 15th, 2012 No comments

GAMES NOTES

UTEP actually had a 26-20 FD edge vs Tulsa but they did get 3 of those FD and 60 of the yards on the final drive in the final 1:03 after TU had missed a 36 yd FG. TU fmbl’d at the UTEP14 in the 2Q with the game tied at 3. TU missed a 35 yd FG but a pen had them go for it on 4&1 and they converted but would settle for a 25 yd FG and led 6-3 at the half. TU went for it on 4&1 at their own 34 to open the 3Q and got a FD and continued on a 75/14pl drive for a td. UTEP, on 4&gl from the 3, was int in the EZ for a TB which was a huge play. TU 2pl later got an 81 yd td run by Douglas. UTEP brought in bkp QB Meger and TU ret’d a fmbl 17 yds for a td and TU led 26-3. UTEP went on a 63/10pl drive but fmbl’d at the TU18. UTEP got a 61 yd td pass with 11:05 let but TU on 3&8 got a 55 yd pass then a 10 yd td run on the next play to go up 33-11 with 8:46 left. UTEP was sk’d on 4&7 at their own 46 with 3:48 left.

Read more…

Categories: News & Notes Tags: