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Champs/Alamo Bowl Forecasts

December 29th, 2011 No comments
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Thursday, December 29th @ 5:30 p.m.
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NOTRE DAME (8-4) VS FLORIDA ST (8-4)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NOTRE DAME 107
200
19
2.7
-
100.6
FLORIDA ST
68
200
19
1.4
•••
100.9
This will be the 7th meeting for these 2 storied programs with FSU winning 4 of 6 incl 37-0 in ‘03 at South Bend. In ‘93 #1 FSU met #2 ND in the “Game of the Century” with the Irish pulling the 31-24 upset but the Noles went on to win the Nat’l Title as both finished with 1 loss. Their last bowl meeting was in ‘95 as FSU defeated ND 31-26 in the Orange Bowl. After an NCAA rec’d 9 gm bowl losing streak, ND has won their L/2 postssn appearances by a comb 44 pts and Kelly is 3-1 in bowls. The Noles have been to 30 consec bowls (FBS best) and this is Fisher’s 2nd bowl game winning the Chick-fil-A LY 26-17 over SC. The Irish went 5-3 vs bowl opp outscoring them 29-22 and outgaining them 402-386. FSU went 3-4 vs 7 bowl tms but outscored them 23-19 and outgained 317-313. ND played an ACC stretch of Wake, MD and BC going 3-0 outscoring them 28-17 and outgaining them 422-304. FSU went 2-1 vs same 3 opp’s with 23-16 score and 404-310 yardage edges. FSU went 2-2 on the road while ND was 4-2 away from South Bend. The Irish have 10 Sr st’rs and 17 upperclassmen while the Noles have 6 Sr’s among 16 upperclassmen. By looking at the teams, few gms besides the Nat’l Champ gm can match the talent on the field. The advantage FSU has is that they have a dominant Top 5 defense and is capable of shutting down even this ND offense. FSU’s offensive numbers are lower than expected but remember QB Manuel missed a few gms. ND has yet to face this type of spd on D and with the Noles having a big ST’s edge I’ll call for them to get the win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 NOTRE DAME 20

 

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Military and Holiday Bowl Forecasts!

December 28th, 2011 1 comment
MILITARY BOWL
Wednesday, December 28th @ 4:30 p.m.
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TOLEDO (8-4) VS AIR FORCE (7-5)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
TOLEDO 247
215
39
2.3
-
91.8
AIR FORCE
268
190
37
2.5
•••
93.9
First meeting. Toledo is 2-6 vs current MW tms incl a 40-15 loss to Boise at home TY. AF hasn’t played a MAC tm since the late ‘70’s. This is the Rockets 12th all-time bowl (7-4) and while it is their 6th since ‘01 it is just their 2nd since ‘06. LY the Rockets blew a 24-7 lead and lost 34-32 to FIU in what was HC Beckman’s 1st and only bowl as a HC. AF had lofty expectations to start the ssn, but after a rough Oct, needed a win over CSU in the finale to land a bowl. With that win, they’ve won 7 or more in 5 str yrs, a schl rec’d. Falcons are 2-2 in bowls under Calhoun but 2-0 the L/2Y and he is the only cch in AF hist to lead his tm to bowls in his 1st 5Y with the prog. Toledo went 2-3 vs bowl tms but 2 losses were by a comb 8 pts. Falcons went 0-5 vs bowl tms being outscored 39-24 and outgained 431-424. UT tied for the MAC West but missed the Champ gm due to a head-to-head loss to NI, but should be excited here, while AF in the Military Bowl is a no brainer. I like the stability of the coaching staff at AF in this and I’ll take the Falcons in a tight high scoring affair.

PHIL’S FORECAST: AIR FORCE 38 TOLEDO 35

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Little Caesars/Belk Bowl Forecasts!

December 27th, 2011 No comments
LITTLE CASESARS BOWL
Tuesday, December 27th @ 4:30 p.m.
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WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5) VS PURDUE (6-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
WESTERN MICHIGAN 115
340
36
2.6
87.0
PURDUE
225
220
32
2.4
-
99.0
PU leads the series 2-0 winning both at home incl a 28-24 win in the last meeting in ‘02. WM is 6-31 all-time vs B10 tms but has 2 of those wins (Iowa ‘07 and Ill ‘08) under HC Cubit and came up just short vs UI earlier this ssn (23-20). Purdue is 38-9-1 vs MAC tms but lost to Tol 31-20. This is WM’s 5th all-time bowl, but their 3rd under Cubit (0-2). They are 0-4 incl a 38-14 loss to Rice in the ‘08 Texas Bowl. PU is in the postssn for the 1st time S/’07 and this is their 1st time bowling under HC Hope. Under ex-HC Tiller, who Hope served under as an asst in 2 diff stints, the Boilers went 4-6 in bowls usually spotting tms the lead (fell behind 98-0 in L/7). Of the 70 bowl tms, WM is last being outgained by an avg 168 ypg vs the 4 bowl tms they faced but went 1-3 in those gms losing 2 by 3 pts each. PU and bowl officials are hoping for a decent contingent in Black and Gold but keep in mind that PU avg’d just 45,225 fans per home gm TY (72% of stadium capacity) and failed to sell out any of its 7 gms in Ross-Ade Stadium. When you match a B10 vs a MAC team you expect significant edges to the BCS conference. This doesn’t hold true as Western has many players that actually rate higher than Purdue and it’s very obvious by looking at the offensive skill position players. Western showed they can clearly matchup with BCS teams as they were 17-17 FD’s at Michigan, only lost at Illinois 23-20 and beat Conn 38-31. Purdue meanwhile has had losses to MAC teams Toledo and Northern Illinois in recent years.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 PURDUE 31

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Independence Bowl Forecast!

December 26th, 2011 No comments
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Monday, December 26th @ 5:00 p.m.
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NORTH CAROLINA (7-5) VS MISSOURI (7-5)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NORTH CAROLINA 120
225
22
2.6
-
106.8
MISSOURI
165
245
24
2.9
..
111.1
These 2 have met twice before with MO taking both incl their last matchup 24-3 in ‘76. This is NC’s 4th str bowl (1-2) and 29th overall. LY NC defeated Tenn 30-27 after a controversial call in regulation cost the Vols the win (NC kicked the GW FG in the 2nd OT) in the Music City Bowl. This is Withers’ 1st bowl as a HC but he has been DC the L/3 bowls here under Davis. The Tigers head to their 8th bowl under Pinkel (3-4) and their 3rd Independence (1-1) with their 38-31 ‘05 win over SC the biggest bowl comeback win in school history (trailed 21-0 after 1Q). MO was snubbed by the B12’s bowl tie-ins but were helped by their outgoing conf to find a home in Shreveport. It’s put up or shut up time for Tiger fans who have been stereotyped as poor travelers. NC is 5-4 vs 9 bowl caliber tms being outscored 26-25 and outgained 370-356 (outFD’d in 7 out of 9). MO went 3-5 S vs bowl opp outscoring foes 31-30 and outgaining them 474-460. NC was 1-4 on the road while MO was 1-4. NC has 8 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen while MO has 11 Sr’s and 18 upperclassmen. These tms are very similar but North Carolina’s DL has reaped praise from many opposing coaches and their disruptiveness can actually be a difference in the gm. The Heels also will have the edge with the skill players on the field but I will go with the more exp’d HC and staff in this one.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSOURI 27 NORTH CAROLINA 26

Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

December 24th, 2011 No comments

HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
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NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
…. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

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Best 2011-12 Coaching Hires to Date!

December 23rd, 2011 1 comment

Terry Bowden, Akron-At first I wondered why the Zips would fire a coach after only 2 years unless they had a big name coach in hand and obviously Terry Bowden is a big name. He had the undefeated season at Auburn, has had some recent success at Div II North Alabama and is the biggest name here since Gerry Faust and will have more success than what Faust had here.

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona-At each of Rodriguez’ last two stops he did not have a mobile QB in place when he took over and naturally was under intense pressure from the outset at Michigan. He will have no such problem here as Matt Scott has plenty of experience, is a mobile QB that can also throw and former HC Stoops did him a favor by redshirting him this past season. Read more…

2012 Conference Realignment: Who’s Playing Where?

December 22nd, 2011 2 comments

Conference realignment has been the talk of college football now for the past two years and while there were some changes for 2011, there are even more scheduled for 2012 and beyond. I have already started to write the 2012 magazine and if you’re like me and are confused with who will be playing where next year, here is a quick conference breakdown for next year as it stands today.

ACC

ATLANTIC COASTAL
Clemson Virginia Tech
Wake Forest Virginia
Florida St Georgia Tech
NC State Miami (FL)
Boston College North Carolina
Maryland Duke

For the 2012 season, the ACC will remain the same. Pittsburgh and Syracuse will officially join the conference in 2014.

Big East

Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
South Florida
Syracuse

The Big East loses West Virginia to the Big 12 in 2012 and will lose Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC in 2014. The conference will add Boise St, San Diego St, UCF, Houston and SMU for 2013. Read more…

Top Team Bowl Performances

January 14th, 2011 No comments
Top 10 Scoring
Pts
Tulsa 62
BYU 52
Miss St 52
Maryland 51
Alabama 49
Troy 48
Oklahoma 48
Texas Tech 45
LSU 41
N Illinois and Stanford 40
Bottom 10 Scoring
Pts
Utah 3
Georgia 6
Georgia Tech 7
West Virginia 7
Nebraska 7
Michigan St 7
Arizona 10
UCF 10
Virginia Tech 12 Read more…

Top Individual Bowl Performances

January 12th, 2011 No comments

Here are some of the top individual performances from this past bowl season. Tomorrow I will break down the top team performances.

Rushing Leaders (Top 10)
Player, School Att Yds YPC Long TD
Ronnie Hillman, San Diego St 28 228 8.1 37 3
Marcus Coker, Iowa 33 219 6.6 62 2
Da’Rel Scott, Maryland 13 200 15.4 91 2
Delone Carter, Syracuse 27 198 7.3 60 2
Adonis Thomas, Toledo 24 193 8 87 2
Mikel LeShoure, Illinois 29 184 6.3 24 3
Chris Polk, Washington 34 177 5.2 24 1
Shaun Draughn, North Carolina 23 160 7 58 1
Doug Martin, Boise St 17 147 8.6 84 1
Chris Thompson, Florida St 25 147 5.9 27 1

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Off-Season Blog Schedule Plus Final Bowl Contest Standings

January 11th, 2011 No comments

The Daily blog will be undergoing some changes in the next couple of days now that the college football season is complete. Tomorrow’s blog will give you the final conference standings from the bowls plus the top performances from all the bowl games both team/individual. Later on this week you will get my forecasts for the NFL Divisional games played that day including my computer’s projected box score of the games. Starting next week I will be going to a Monday, Wednesday and weekend blog format until magazine season is over in late spring/early summer. Next week may feature my projection of what the Preseason AP top 10 will be for 2011 and that will be coming after January 15th when juniors have to declare or not declare for the NFL Draft. I also will be updating you with 2011 NFL Draft and 2011 Frosh Recruiting updates. Read more…