» College Football Forecasts

National Championship Forecast!

Phil Steele — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 22:25:42 +0000

	BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP Monday, January 9th @ 8:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

ALABAMA (11-1) VS LSU (13-0)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ALABAMA	142	145	21	2.0	-	100.2
LSU	158	80	25	1.3	•••	101.6
The 1st Nat’l Title gm rematch S/’96 and the 1st time in the BCS era 2 tms from the same conf will meet for the title. LSU won the earlier meeting 9-6 in OT in Tuscaloosa thanks to 4 missed Bama FG’s (7 trips inside LSU35) and were also outgained 295-239. The Tigers are 3-2 vs Bama since former LSU HC Saban took over and Miles is 5-2 vs the Tide (only LSU HC ever to beat Bama 5x’s). There are 6 common opp’s with Bama going 6-0 outscoring foes 39-10 (+265 ypg) while LSU was 6-0 outscoring foes 39-9 (+200 ypg). Bama is gunning for its 2nd BCS Title in 3 yrs and makes just its 2nd appearance in NO (lost to Utah ‘08) since winning the ‘92 Nat’l Title here. Saban is 6-6 overall in bowls including 3-1 at Bama. LSU has won their L/2 Nat’l Titles (‘03, ‘07) in the Superdome and this is their 5th NO postssn appearance S/’01 (4-0). Overall Miles is 6-3 in bowls but is 5-1 at LSU. Bama was 6-1 vs bowl tms outscoring them on avg 30-9 and outgaining them 375-200 while LSU was 9-0 vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 36-13 despite only outgaining those foes 366-288. Bama has 9 Sr st’rs among 19 upperclassmen while LSU has 8 Sr st’rs among 13 upperclassmen. The Tide started the yr with a QB controversy between Sims/McCarron. After a 5 TO perf by the off vs Kent St, soph McCarron settled in as the st’r and at one pt had a streak of 152 passes w/out an int (3rd longest in schl hist). RB Richardson who many felt was more talented than 2009 Heisman winner Ingram had arguably a better ssn than Ingram’s Heisman campaign incl nine 100 yd gms despite having to face 5 D’s that ranked in the top 20! Doak Walker winner Richardson had a knack for coming up with his best perf in big gms incl 169 of Bama’s 295 ttl yds vs LSU. If there is one weakness on the Bama off it would be the WR’s as they have struggled to find a deep-threat replacement for #1DC Jones. Maze has great spd and versatility but lacks height and they often use two TE sets with Smelley/Williams. The OL avg 6’4” 313 with 1 Sr st’r and are led by Outland winner LT Jones who can play every pos which helped the Tide avg a Saban-era high 220 rush ypg (5.6) while all’g just 15 sks (4.6%). Overall they have my #9 off. The D is clearly #1 as they are the first tm in 25 yrs to lead the NCAA in the 4 major categories (rush, pass, ttl and scoring D). The Tide’s 3 man DL avg 6’2” 305 with 1 Sr st’r. They have 2 AA at LB in Hightower who finally ret’d to his ‘08 form (knee inj early ‘09) and Upshaw who led the tm in sks and tfl for a 2nd yr in a row. The secondary features at least 5 future early round NFL draft picks and are led by 3x AA S Barron and rank #7 in my pass D all’g just 116 ypg (48%) with a 6-12 ratio. The ST’s rank #65 as both K’s have struggled hitting only 2-11 from 40+ incl the 4 misses vs LSU but PR/KR Maze is #10 FBS PR and would lead the SEC in KR if he had enough att to qualify. The Tigers were able to overcome several off-field issues incl the susp of many of their leaders on off/def throughout the yr to achieve their first 13-0 ssn in schl hist while winning their 11th SEC Title. QB Lee (Jefferson susp’d 1st 4) was solid in the 1st 8 gms avg 156 ypg (63%) with a 13-1 ratio. After he threw 2 int’s vs Bama, Lee was pulled for Jefferson who has played every meaningful snap since. The talented group of RB’s combine spd (Ford/Blue) and power (Ware/Hilliard). Each RB has 7 or more TD’s and will be used in a variety of formations. The WR’s are led by deep threat Randle while true frosh Beckham has been the surprise. The OL avg 6’5” 315 with 2 Sr st’rs led by OG’s Blackwell and Hebert and paved the way for a Miles-era high 215 rush ypg (5.0) while all’g 14 sks (5.3%). Overall the Tigers have my #13 off. The #2 D’s ability to pressure the QB (37 sks) is a big reason why LSU is #1 in the country in TO margin (+22). The DL features the best group of young DL in the country avg 6’5” 273 with 1 Sr st’r and incl AA DE Montgomery (#5 SEC sks). LB Baker leads a corps that often gets overlooked as the def stars are in the secondary. Bednarik winner CB Mathieu is the nation’s biggest playmaker on D (6 FF, 5 FR, 2 TD’s) while fellow CB and Thorpe winner Claiborne may be the 1st DB taken in the upcoming draft and S Reid made the big int at the GL vs Bama. The Tigers rank #3 in my pass D all’g 167 ypg (51%) with a 7-18 ratio. ST’s are #2 thanks to efficient K Alleman (3-3 vs Bama), All-SEC P Wing’s directional punting is a big reason why the Tigers are all’g 13 inches per PR (#1) and Mathieu who has had 2 momentum changing PR TD’s in the L/2 gms. We’re in for a treat and the BCS system got it right, matching up the top 2 teams. I think the difference in this game will be the adjustments Saban will make from the first game and I think Bama will capatilize on their trips inside LSU territory unlike the first game. I think Richardson is the best player on the field will have a very big game. I picked Alabama to win the national title in my magazine 8 months ago and will stick with my pick here. Roll Tide!
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 21 LSU 17

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

Phil Steele — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:09:31 +0000

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: 2-0 YESTERDAY! 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	NFC WILDCARD SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH 1:00 PM ET FOX

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ATLANTA	110	265	23	1.6	#19	98.2
NY GIANTS	91	295	30	1.8	#23	99.5
These teams haven’t met since mid-2009 w/the Giants winning 34-31 in OT. The Giants went 4-4 at home TY w/a +30 yd edge (+3 TO’s) for a 23.3-23.1 avg score. ATL went 4-4 on the road w/a +47 ypg differential (+1 TO’s) getting outscored 23-20. ATL went 2-3 vs the common foes of PHI, SEA, GB, and NO getting outgained by 28 ypg (+2 TO’s) and outscored 31-24 on avg. The Giants earned a 1-4 record w/a -46 ypg margin (-1 TO’s) and was outscored 31-25 on avg. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have the #8 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs a good Dallas offense, a tougher than advertised Washington team and a physical Jets defense. Atlanta has the #4 and #17 units (+9 TO’s) but has faced a weak Carolina def, a depleted Jacksonville team, was hammered by New Orleans and beat a Tampa Bay team that quit at Thanksgiving. We now have a dome team in cold weather vs a Giants team playing with confidence with a brutal DL and home crowd. I’m going with the more physical team at home here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

	AFC WILDCARD SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH 4:30 PM ET CBS

PITTSBURGH (12-4) VS DENVER (8-8)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
PITTSBURGH	129	208	21	1.2	#12	97.5
DENVER	170	81	11	3.3	#15	99.2
The last meeting was in 2009 when PIT beat DEN 28-10. This is also the 1st playoff game for DEN since PIT beat them 34-17 back in ’05. The Steelers have gone 5-3 on the road TY despite being +62 yds (4th best) due to a -11 TO mark. DEN has been outgained by 39 ypg at home (28th) and are -10 TO’s for a 3-5 record. PIT beat Fox’s Panthers 27-3 LY. DEN has struggled vs winning teams TY going 1-4 being outgained by 82 ypg (29th) with -11 TO’s losing 35-19. PIT has outgained their winning foes by 62 ypg (3rd best) but -12 TO’s have them 4-4. PIT has a massive edge in postseason experience with most of LY’s team that made it to the SB still on the roster. For all the excitement that Tebow has brought to the Bronco’s he’s clearly their biggest weakness. DEN has been held to under 20 pts in 8 of his starts and by keeping him in the pocket he can be controlled. He now matches up vs a PIT defense that is allowing 258 ypg and 8 ppg since its bye week. In losing Mendenhall with a beat up OL (again) the Steelers will be challenged to go downfield more in a hostile venue. With Roethlisberger not having as much mobility to extend plays and Dick LeBeau having a disciplined, aggressive unit to contain Tebow look for a lower scoring game with the Steelers coming out on top.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 20 DENVER 13

	GODADDY.COM BOWL Sunday, January 8th @ 9:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

ARKANSAS ST (10-2) VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ARKANSAS ST	145	323	35	2.0	••	91.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	196	213	30	2.7	-	86.6
This bowl got the matchup they wanted with the MAC Champ vs the SBC Champ. What a job HC Freeze did in his 1st ssn as ASU went unbeaten in conf play and has its best record since joining the FBS. Their only two losses were at Ill and VT, but they played well in both finishing the reg ssn 10-2. Freeze was named HC at Ole Miss, leaving ASU with a skeleton coaching crew for this gm. RB coach David Gunn was promoted to interim HC, while ASU reached out to alumni to fill their coord needs. ASU lost in their lone bowl appearance (New Orleans in ‘05) vs Southern Miss, 31-19. NI leads the all-time series 6-1 incl a 31-30 win in the last meeting in ‘96. NI is playing in its 7th all-time bowl (3-3). While they are in their 4th straight bowl, their will be led by their 3rd different HC in the bowls as Jerry Kill, who went 0-2, left prior to LY’s bowl and then LB Cch Matukewicz led them to a 40-17 blowout of Fresno St in the Humanitarian Bowl. This will be new HC Doeren’s 1st bowl as a HC but he did see a few as the DC at Wisky. The Huskies trailed Ohio 20-0 at half in the MAC Championship game but after losing their 2 previous MAC Champ gms in the final minute, kicked the GW FG as time expired to win 23-20. NI went 3-1 vs bowl teams. NI finished #10 in the NCAA in offense and my rankings have them a bit lower at #25. They certainly are capable of lighting up the scoreboard having reached 40+ pts 9x’s TY. ASU has topped 500 yds 4x’s this year. Both offenses prefer up tempo action and on avg they’re combining for 148 plays a gm. Expect some points and I’ll go with my computer here and take the Red Wolves to cap off one of their best seasons in school history.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS ST 37 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 17:19:44 +0000

	FCS National Championship Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m.

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s
NORTH DAKOTA ST	139	130	23	1.7
SAM HOUSTON ST	151	190	22	1.7
This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

	COMPASS BOWL Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
SMU	97	258	15	3.6	-	93.8
PITTSBURGH	134	168	24	1.3	••	100.4
SMU and Pitt have met 5 times (2-2-1), most recently back in the 1983 Cotton Bowl, a 7-3 Mustang win. Pitt also has familiarity with Legion Field as this is the 2nd str yr they are playing in the Compass (27-10 win over Kentucky LY). HC Jones is 5-3 in bowls and has guided SMU to their 3rd str postssn (1-1, 1st time S/’82-’84, pre-death penalty, matches schl’s best streak). Pitt struggled vs bowl tms TY going just 1-6 being outscored by 6 ppg and outgained by 33 ypg. SMU was 1-4 vs bowl tms being outscored 36-14 and outgained 466-333. Pitt went just 1-3 away from home TY while SMU also struggled going 2-4. Pitt has 10 Sr st’rs among 16 upperclassmen. SMU has 12 among their 18 upperclassmen. A better offense, better defense, better special teams and having played a tougher sked, would have made this an easy choice prior to Pitt HC Graham leaving for Arizona St. Now Pitt must deal with yet another interim HC but did play well in this very bowl gm LY under the same circumstances. SMU players have gone thru the gamut as well of hearing Jones’ name come up for numerous jobs (ironically one was ASt) and are they now wondering if they are playing for a lame duck HC as well? I will stick with my initial pick with the Panthers getting another Compass Bowl win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

	AFC WILDCARD SATURDAY, JANUARY 7TH 4:30 PM ET NBC

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
CINCINNATI	87	188	18	1.9	#10	97.6
HOUSTON	158	223	22	1.1	#11	97.2
The Texans defeated the Bengals 20-19 just 4 wks ago to win the AFC South. CIN had a 16-3 lead at the end of the 1H being held to 3 FG’s on 3 trips inside the HOU31. The Texans crushed them in the 2H with 16-6 FD and 202-81 yd edges with Yates leading an 80/13pl yd drive for the GW TD. HOU is 5-3 at home TY with a +103 yd margin (-2 TO’s) for a 22-6 avg score. CIN finished 5-3 on the road TY for a -16 yd difference (+2 TO’s) for a 24-21 avg score. The AFC North/South squared off TY with CIN going 5-4 vs common foes for a +14 ypg margin (+2 TO’s) with a 23-22 avg scoring deficit. HOU was +85 ypg on avg (+5 TO’s) for a 24-15 avg score going 6-3 in those. While this is HOU’s 1st playoff game ever CIN doesn’t have much of an edge as they haven’t won a playoff game since Jan 1991. Reliant Stadium will be incredibly loud here and Dalton’s only other dome game was vs STL. Despite resting key players LW (& Yates leaving early) HOU put in a good game vs TEN and got their confidence back. Yates is expected to start vs a team HOU beat on the road. CIN has promise for 2012 but the Texans are deeper on both sides of the ball with a big intangible edge and are my pick to win it.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

	NFC WILDCARD SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH 8:00 PM ET NBC

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
DETROIT	57	370	23	1.3	#27	99.5
NEW ORLEANS	158	413	40	1.7	#6	97.5
NO beat the Lions 31-17 on SNF just 5 weeks ago as Brees hit for 342 yds (72%) with 3 TD’s and a 9.5 ypa vs a Lions defense short 3 starters (DT Suh, FS Delmas, CB Houston). The Saints went into the half with a 304-184 yd edge with a 24-7 lead and held DET to 0-6 on 3rd downs on in the 2H. Stafford had 408 yds passing (70%) with a 1-1 ratio but DET was still playing undisciplined ball and was hit with 11 penalties. Common foes are plentiful with the NFC North and South squaring off TY with NO being +106 ypg (-6 TO’s) with a 33-22 avg score for a 7-2 mark. DET went 5-4 vs the same foes with a +37 yd difference (-2 TO’s) for a 28-27 score deficit. This is DET’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and 1st playoff game since 1999 for a franchise that hasn’t won a postseason game since Jan 1992. DET went 5-3 on the road TY with a +34 yd mark (-2 TO’s) and a 29-28 avg score. Incl playoffs since 2008, NO has been lethal at home vs a non-div foe with a 19-3 mark winning 8 straight by a 37-17 avg score with a +169 yd differential. After the CAR game WR Colston noted “mentally and emotionally, we’re as prepared as a team can be.” DET has to be commended for making the playoffs but getting shredded by Matt Flynn LW has to be a big concern for a defense which now faces the record-setting Brees. NO has better depth, a huge crowd edge and much more experience in this situation. Who dat say gonna beat dem Saints? Not the Lions!
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Cotton Bowl Forecast!

Phil Steele — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 21:53:17 +0000

	COTTON BOWL Friday, January 6th @ 8:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

KANSAS ST (10-2) VS ARKANSAS (10-2)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
KANSAS ST	178	143	28	1.7	-	98.1
ARKANSAS	128	318	39	2.3	-	100.6
The Cotton Bowl gets its 1st matchup of Top 10 tms S/‘94 featuring the 2 of the 3 highest rated tms who were left out of the BCS party. This is the 1st meeting between these programs S/’67 (KSU leads 3-1) and it will be played in front of a sellout crowd as both tms easily sold their allotments and the ticket demand for this gm is #2 of all the bowls trailing just the Nat’l Title gm. This is KSU’s 1st Cotton Bowl matchup S/‘00 and 3rd overall (1-1) while it’s the Hogs 12th appearance (3-7-1) and 1st S/‘07. Snyder is 6-6 in bowls while Petrino is 3-3. They had a common opp in A&M and both rallied from DD deficits to beat the Aggies, KSU 53-50 in 4OT while Ark won 42-38 in this stadium. The Cats went 6-2 vs bowl caliber opp despite being outscored 34-31 and outgained 449-335 as their 6 wins were by a comb 26 pts while the 2 losses were by 48. UA was 5-2 vs bowl foes outscoring 33-29 and outgaining them 409-399. KSU was 4-1 on the road TY while Ark was 3-2 outside of their home state. The Wildcats have numerous wins this ssn pulling upsets at Miami, vs Baylor, vs Missouri, at TT, vs A&M and at Texas. There’s no question that HC Snyder has done one of the best jobs in the country this year but I do think Ark just has too many weapons on off in what should be an entertaining Cotton Bowl.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 37 KANSAS ST 30

Orange Bowl Forecast

Phil Steele — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 21:15:55 +0000

	ORANGE BOWL Wednesday, January 4th @ 8:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

WEST VIRGINIA (9-3) VS CLEMSON (10-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
WEST VIRGINIA	125	310	34	2.5	-	96.0
CLEMSON	165	285	36	2.1	•	99.1
One prior meeting, in the ‘89 Gator Bowl (27-7 CU win). This marks the 10th consec bowl gm for WV (1st ever trip to Orange Bowl) and 2nd BCS gm over the L/5Y as they knocked off Okla in the ‘07 Fiesta. WV earned this bid by virtue of a higher BCS ranking as they actually finished in a 3-way tie with Cincy and L’ville for the BE crown. Holgorsen has been part of many postssn gms as an asst but this will be his 1st as HC for WV. This is CU’s 1st appearance in the Orange since their ‘81 Nat’l Champ ssn and CU’s 7th consec bowl (2-4) while Swinney, in his 4th yr, is a finalist for COY. The Tigers rose to 8-0 but lost to GT, which started another “Clemson Collapse” as they lost 3 of the L/4. CU stunned VT 38-10 winning their 1st ACC Title S/‘91 to land here. WV and CU shared 1 common opp TY in MD as both put up wins. WV went 4-2 vs bowl tms TY with 29-28 score and 424-332 yd edges (outgained LSU 533-366, double LSU’s ssn avg all’d). CU has faced 9 bowl tms going 6-3 outscoring those opp’s 30-26 and outgaining them 412-376. WV also fared well in AG’s going 4-1 while CU was 3-3. WV has 7 Sr st’rs among 13 upperclassmen and CU has 9 Sr’s w/17 upperclassmen. WV has been as fortunate as any tm and now matched up vs a battle tested Clemson unit, their weaknesses will get exposed. Clemson has the better offense, better defense, better special tms and has played a tougher sked and the Tigers get my call here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 37 WEST VIRGINIA 30

Sugar Bowl Forecast!

Phil Steele — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 21:40:35 +0000

	SUGAR BOWL Tuesday, January 3rd @ 8:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

MICHIGAN (10-2) VS VIRGINIA TECH (11-2)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
MICHIGAN	205	175	29	2.3	-	100.9
VIRGINIA TECH	130	205	21	1.9	•	95.7
First meeting. UM makes its 2nd appearance in the Sugar Bowl with a previous 9-7 loss to Aub in 1983. They return to the BCS lineup for the 1st time since the ‘06 Rose Bowl and overall UM is 1-3 in the big bowls since the BCS was instituted in 1998. Hoke has been the HC in just 2 bowls in his career, going 1-1 losing the ‘07 International Bowl to Rutgers while at Ball St while beating Navy in LY’s Poinsettia Bowl with SDSt. The Wolves players will want to erase any lingering memories of LY’s 52-14 bowl thrashing by Miss St, the worst postssn perf in schl hist which proved to be Rich Rodriguez’s swan song. VT surprisingly received the at-large bid trumping Boise, K-St and Baylor to make their 4th trip to the Sugar Bowl (1-2) to face Mich, despite being dominated by Clemson 38-10 in the ACC Title game, the only team they lost to… twice! VT is the only team in the FBS to have 8 str 10 win ssns and has a chance to go for win #12 for the 1st time in schl history. Beamer is 8-10 in bowls. UM went 2-2 on the road TY outgaining foes by 49 ypg. VT went 6-1 with a 22 ypg edge. UM went 8-2 vs bowl tms outgaining them by 63 ypg. The Hokies faced 8 bowl caliber tms going 7-2 but being outscored 27-20 and outgained 404-342 (Clem 2x). Hokies fans travel well which is the reason they were able to nab the bid but they actually trailed UM in ticket sales here. Michigan is certainly excited to be in their 1st BCS bowl since 2006, but VT has not lost their final 2 gms of the season S/’03.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 26 MICHIGAN 24

January 2nd Bowl Forecasts!!!

Phil Steele — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 16:42:39 +0000

	TICKETCITY BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 12:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

PENN ST (9-3) VS HOUSTON (12-1)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
PENN ST	182	150	21	2.4	-	99.2
HOUSTON	98	390	34	2.1	-	91.3
PSU is 2-0 vs UH but the last gm was in ‘77. It’s hard to believe that PSU headed into their bye the B10’s highest ranked tm with a league best 8-1 rec’d (loss to #2 Bama), their BCS destiny in their own hands and the NCAA’s all-time winning HC on the sidelines. The Lions now head into uncharted waters playing in a new bowl for an interim HC for the 1st time in schl hist. Bradley will remain the HC for the bowl. UH, like PSU, controlled its own destiny for bigger and better things. Sumlin was 1-1 in bowls with both being in Dallas but new HC Tony Levine will cch the the Cougs here (was an asst). PSU has played in the Cotton Bowl venue 3x’s (2-0-1) most recently in ‘74. Due to the scandal PSU fell precipitously down the B10 bowl ladder being passed over the players expressed anger at not playing in a more prestigious bowl. UH should draw a nice crowd playing in their home state. PSU is 6-3 vs bowl tms being outscored 18-16 and outgained 324-317 while UH was 5-1 outscored foes 42-28 and outgaining them 506-432. PSU was 4-1 on the road and UH was a perfect 6-0. PSU has a very Sr laden club with 13 among their 20 upperclassmen. UH has 11 Sr st’rs with 15 upperclassmen. If you weight the intangibles section it pretty much sums up this gm. The Cougars may have looked past SM and after thinking BCS for the last month, are now in this bowl. The Lions players gave an initial reaction of disappointment, but fiery interim HC Bradley will turn that around as PSU is an underdog to a CUSA tm.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 28 HOUSTON 27

	OUTBACK BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

MICHIGAN ST (10-3) VS GEORGIA (10-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
MICHIGAN ST	70	220	26	2.1	•••	97.0
GEORGIA	100	245	24	2.2	-	99.7
MSU has had the B10’s best reg ssn conf rec’d (14-2) incl wins over Wisc in both reg ssn matchups the L2Y but despite HC Dantonio’s pressn slogan of “P4RB” (Prepare for the Rose Bowl) they failed to make it to the Rose or another BCS bowl due to the league’s tie breaking procedures in 2010 and their wild rematch loss to Wisky in the inaugural B10 Champ gm. Even more galling for Sparty is that their hated rival Mich claimed a BCS slot while league newcomer Nebraska claimed the more prestigious Capital One Bowl dropping them to the Outback. This is still just their 4th Jan bowl S/’89 and they won 10 or more gms in B2B ssns for the 1st time in prog hist. The Spartans are 0-4 in bowls under Dantonio with memories of LY’s embarrassing 49-7 NY’s Day filleting by Bama being a primary offssn motivator for TY’s tm. UGA overcame an 0-2 start with HC Richt firmly on the hot seat only to win their next 10 (longest ssn win streak S/’82) before dropping the SEC Title gm. The Bulldogs make their 15th str bowl appearance (11-3) and it is their 4th time here in that span (3-0) but 1st appearance S/’04. Richt is 7-3 in bowls but LY had a miserable outing losing 10-6 to UCF. UGA was 5-3 vs bowl tms TY outscoring foes 29-26 and outgaining them 391-295. MSU went 5-3 outscoring foes 25-23 and outgaining them 362-276. Very few tms fall in the Top 12 of total D, rush D and pass D in the NCAA rankings but both of these tms do. In my overall rankings, I have UGA #6 and MSU #8 and each tm is built similarly. Both tms want to run the ball, and both tms can stop the run. The difference here for me is that Richt has proven to be a better bowl coach than Dantonio to date and I’ll call for the Bulldogs to get the close win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 MICHIGAN ST 23

	CAPITAL ONE BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEBRASKA (9-3) VS SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NEBRASKA	195	75	22	2.0	••••	96.5
SOUTH CAROLINA	170	150	24	2.2	-	102.7
This is the 4th meeting between the schools (Neb 3-0) with the last in ‘87 and the 1st matchup with the Ol’ Ball Coach Spurrier since the ‘95 Nat’l Champ gm which the Huskers won 62-24 in the Fiesta Bowl. This is NU’s 2nd trip to Orlando (45-21 loss to GT in ‘90) and Pelini is 3-1 in bowls with this being his 1st matchup with an SEC tm. Spurrier is 7-10 all-time in bowls and just 1-4 at SC. SC is 4-12 all-time in bowls incl some embarrassing bowl losses in recent yrs to Iowa (31-10) and Conn (20-7) but this will be their 1st Capital One gm (Spurrier 2-0 here at UF). On the road TY NU was 3-2 despite being outscored 27-26 although they had a 385-367 yd edge. SC was 4-1 outscoring foes 31-28 but got outgained 340-312. Overall NU went 6-3 vs bowl squads outscoring them 27-25 and outgaining them 374-364. The Gamecocks were 5-2 vs bowl tms outscoring their foes 25-20 and outgaining them 324-288. NU has 9 Sr’s st’rs and 19 upperclassmen while SC has 6 Sr st’rs among 15 upperclassmen. With the offenses almost even, I’ll certainly go with the tm that not only has a better defense, but has a game-changing unit. Nebraska has underachieved all year on the defensive side and now their DC is headed to FAU. The Gamecocks imploded with now-departed QB Garcia but Shaw is the type of game manager I prefer that will limit the mistakes and SC gets the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 NEBRASKA 20

	GATOR BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

FLORIDA (6-6) VS OHIO ST (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
FLORIDA	118	190	26	2.2	-	101.7
OHIO ST	187	100	21	1.2	-	95.0
For 2 tms with a comb 12-12 record the Gator Bowl got their dream matchup instantly dubbed the “Urban Meyer Bowl”. Meyer will not coach here but of course, will have plenty of insight to share on UF’s personnel of whom all but 2 ply’rs ply’d for, signed with or were recruited by him. This is the 2nd meeting ever between these prog’s with the 1st coming in the ‘06 Nat’l Champ gm when Meyer’s Gators chomped the Bucks 41-14. OSU’s 1-9 bowl rec’d vs the SEC is also infamous with LY’s controversial 31-26 Sugar Bowl win as a over Ark which was vacated (NCAA atonement). UF makes its 21st consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) but this will be Muschamp’s first as HC. The Gators make their 1st trip here for a bowl S/’92 (6-2 all-time in Gator Bowls) but they do play their annual series vs UGA in this stadium losing 24-20 earlier TY. This is OSU’s 1st trip to FL for a bowl gm S/’NYD ‘02 where they are 2-8 including a 7 gm losing streak. OSU went 1-4 on the road TY being outgained by 84 ypg. UF was 1-4 on the road TY getting outscored 22-19 and outgained 337-283 and was a dismal 1-6 vs bowl tms losing by an avg of 26-13 while getting outgained 317-244. Rematch of the ‘06 Nat’l Champ and it surely is surprising to see both tms at 6-6. It has been 23 yrs since OSU’s had a losing rec’d and 32 yrs since UF has. Both tms are loaded with top-notch players and while UF has more spd, OSU has the advantage of Meyer’s input with these players he recruited. It comes down to matchups with the very mobile QB Braxton Miller, which is a big advantage.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 23 FLORIDA 21

	ROSE BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 5:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

WISCONSIN (11-2) VS OREGON (11-2)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
WISCONSIN	200	210	40	2.3	-	94.0
OREGON	275	195	40	2.6	•••	99.3
The Badgers and Ducks have met 4x’s (last in ‘01) with UW winning 3 of 4. UW makes B2B Rose Bowl trips for the 2nd time in schl hist (‘98-’99) and their 8th visit overall where they are 3-4 (3-1 L/4). LY UW scored a TD with 2:00 but had the tying 2 pt conv pass knocked down in a 21-19 loss to TCU in which they outgained the Frogs 385-301. UO is in its 3rd str BCS bowl (all under HC Kelly, 0-2) incl their 2nd Rose Bowl as they lost 26-17 to Ohio St in ‘09. The Ducks have been to Pasadena 5x’s in their postssn hist with their lone win coming in 1917. Wisky fans sold out their allotment of 25,000 tickets in less than 48 hrs. Both tms faced Oreg St at home this ssn with UW delivering a shutout in Madison 35-0 and UO clinching a berth in the P12 Title gm with their 49-21 Civil War victory. UW was 4-2 outside of Madison incl B2B losses to MSU and OSU on late 4Q “Hail Mary” passes. The Badgers are 6-2 in gms vs bowl tms TY (MSU 2x) outscoring them by 20 ppg and outgaining them by 120. UO went 4-1 on the road TY and 6-2 vs bowl caliber tms (44-28 scoring and 481-397 yd edges) incl meetings vs BCS #1 LSU (lost 40-27) and #4 Stanford (won 53-30). The general consensus would be size vs spd but a closer look shows that does not hold true. Wisconsin has skill players with great spd, just not enough to match the quickness of Oregon and UW has the perception of size but the Ducks can match them at most positions. Both tms will be able to score but I think Oregon after two str disappointing BCS bowls plays with a “Chip” on their shoulders.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 38 WISCONSIN 35

	FIESTA BOWL Monday, January 2nd @ 8:300 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

STANFORD (11-1) VS OKLAHOMA ST (11-1)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
STANFORD	220	270	32	3.6	-	103.8
OKLAHOMA ST	100	370	40	2.5	•	98.4
Nice matchup here between the BCS’s #3 and #4 tms with no previous meetings. This gm triggered talk of instituting a ‘Plus One’ system as OSU finished #3 by the closest margin in BCS history. First ever trip for the Cardinal to the Fiesta and 2nd str BCS gm as they dominated VT in the Orange Bowl LY. This is HC Shaw’s 1st bowl but he was on Harbaugh’s staff for both of Stan’s previous 2. The Cowboys won their prev Fiesta matchup, 16-6 over BYU in ‘74 and this is their 1st trip to a BCS bowl. Gundy has led OSU to its 1st conf title since WWII and a schl rec’d 6 str postssn appearances (3-2). The Cardinal are 23-2 over the L2Y (both losses vs Oreg) while the Cowboys are 22-3. Stan and OSU faced Ariz in B2B wks with nearly identical outcomes as the Cardinal won 37-10 (567-333 yd edge) and the Cowboys posted a 37-14 win (594-439 yd edge). Stan was 5-0 on the road TY and 5-1 vs bowl caliber tms with scoring (43-31) and yd (465-378) edges. OSU was 5-1 on the road and 8-1 vs bowl tms (47-29 scoring and 539-462 yd edges). Both of these tms would’ve taken part in a National Championship “Plus-One” scenario. They now face off to finish the probable AP #2. I’ll always favor a superior D with time to prepare vs a passing offense and that’s what you have with Stanford. The Cardinal have a physical run/short pass gm unlike any the Cowboys have seen this season and get the upset win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 37 OKLAHOMA ST 35

New Year’s Eve Bowl Forecasts

Phil Steele — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 16:32:44 +0000

	MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 12:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

TEXAS A&M (6-6) VS NORTHWESTERN (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
TEXAS A&M	205	290	37	2.5	•••	100.6
NORTHWESTERN	102	270	26	2.1	-	96.9
In the 1st meeting between these programs one long postssn losing streak will end as A&M has lost their L/5 with their lone win S/’95 (1-9) coming in the defunct Galleryfurniture.com Bowl which was played in the Astrodome. The Ags are 1-4 vs B10 tms in bowls. NW is in its 4th str bowl under Fitzgerald where they are 0-3 but all have been by a TD or less. He has made it a primary goal to get the program’s 2nd ever bowl win as they’ve lost their L/8 S/’48. The Ags are cch’d here by DC DeRuyter after HC Sherman got the ax. College Station is less than a 2 hr drive from Houston so Maroon should flood the stands but Fitzgerald is familiar with the terrain making an estimated 100 recruiting trips over the yrs to the area as 5 Cats are from Houston. A&M was 1-4 on the road TY but were only outscored by 1 ppg while outgaining foes 498-386. NW was 3-3 on the road outscoring foes 32-30 and outgaining them 440-433. A&M went 3-6 vs bowl tms outscoring them 37-32 and outgaining them 509-414. NW was 1-5 vs bowl squads getting outscored 35-27 and outgained 429-418. The Aggies have 7 Sr st’r among 17 upperclassmen while the Cats have 10 Sr’s and 16. At first glance clearly the Aggies have the better personnel on offense, defense and ST’s but I do think NW’s QB Persa will make things interesting in what should be a high scoring and entertaining bowl.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 40 NORTHWESTERN 31

	SUN BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 2:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

UTAH (7-5) VS GEORGIA TECH (8-4)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
UTAH	140	145	22	2.0	•••	93.5
GEORGIA TECH	265	105	22	2.8	-	97.1
GT and Utah have met one time prior which also occurred in the postseason when the Utes upset the Yellow Jackets 38-10 in the Emerald Bowl in HC Whittingham’s 1st yr taking over the reigns from Urban Meyer (Whittingham 5-1 in bowls with only outright loss coming LY to Boise). 9th consec bowl for Utah and 2nd visit to the Sun Bowl although that appearance was in ‘39 (26-0 win over NM). No common opp’s faced TY but the Utes do have a solid sked edge of #27-73. The Utes were 4-2 on the road TY but just 3-4 vs bowl caliber squads (outgained 340-309) but faced just one of those tms (UCLA) over their final 5 gms. Utah has 6 Sr st’rs among 18 upperclassmen while GT has 6 Sr’s among 12 upperclassmen. This is a long distance for GT fans and last year sold tickets for $14 to attract a crowd. It’s obvious that the game matches GT’s offense vs Utah’s D. Teams have been able to slow the Johnson-coached option as they’ve totaled an avg of just 8 ppg the L/3 bowls. Utah’s D may not get recognition, but they are a stout unit that will benefit from the extra time and at least slow the Yellow Jackets.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 24 GEORGIA TECH 23

	FIGHT HUNGER BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 3:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

UCLA (6-7) VS ILLINOIS (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
UCLA	188	140	22	2.0	•••	106.4
ILLINOIS	167	140	19	2.8	-	100.1
“The Wilted Rose Bowl” as IL began the season 6-0 for the 1st time S/’51 but now has the dubious distinction of being the 1st FBS program to head into a bowl with a 6 gm losing skid which saw HC Zook axed. UCLA got a waiver from the NCAA to get here w/a 6-7 rec’d after losing the P12 Title gm to UO and dismissing HC Neuheisel (both tms interim HC’s here). UCLA leads the series 6-5 with a 4 gm win streak incl 2-1 in bowls. The 2 had a common opp in Ariz St who they both beat: IL 17-14 at home despite being outgained by 122 yds while UCLA upset ASU 29-28 while being outgained by 49 yds. IL is 4-9 in bowls with Zook getting his only postssn win LY 38-14 over Bay in the Texas Bowl. UCLA had just one other bowl trip in the Neuheisel era which was a 30-21 win over Temple in the EagleBank Bowl in ‘09. IL went 3-6 vs bowl opp TY outgaining them by 37 ypg and being outscored by a little over 2 ppg. The Bruins faced 8 bowl caliber tms going 2-6 while being outscored 38-21 and outgained 454-379. IL last played on Nov 26 while UCLA ended on Dec 2nd. Large sked edge to the Bruins as they have ply’d my overall toughest slate compared to IL’s #47. This very well may be the 1st ever bowl with the tms having a comb losing rec’d at 12-13. UCLA is just the 10th bowl tm S/’80 to have a losing rec’d. They now both make long trips to salvage a winning or .500 rec’d. IL has a large defensive edge and when they have the ball, they’re happy to run it and I’ll go with the Illini here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ILLINOIS 24 UCLA 21

	LIBERTY BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 3:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

CINCINNATI (9-3) VS VANDERBILT (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
CINCINNATI	118	165	20	2.4	•	98.7
VANDERBILT	157	285	29	2.4	-	100.8
These 2 have met 7x’s with Vandy owning a 4-3 lead (last meeting in ‘94). This is the Cats 1st ever trip to the Liberty Bowl as the SEC generally meets the CUSA Champ. HC Jones is in his 1st bowl with UC however he did coach his former squad C Mich in 2 postseason gms (0-2, did not coach in ‘09 GMAC Bowl). This will mark VU Franklin’s 1st bowl (inaugural ssn as HC). UC and VU both ply’d Conn and Tenn TY with both beating the Huskies and each losing to the Vols (Vandy lost in OT). UC went 3-2 vs bowl tms TY being outgained by 10 ypg in those meetings while VU went just 1-5 being outscored (25-20) and outgained (393-323). UC went 4-2 away from home while VU posted a 1-4 mark. Sked edge does favor Vandy here as they played my #30 toughest vs Cincy’s #103. UC has 10 Sr st’rs among 16 upperclassmen while Vandy has 7 Sr st’rs and 15 upperclassmen. Cincy has the offensive edge while Vandy has the defensive edge even with Collaros being able to participate. Cincy has tasted success in the recent past, but this is only Vandy’s 2nd bowl appearance since 1982. Huge sked edge as VU survived the SEC ssn while UC faced one of the weaker skeds among BCS teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VANDERBILT 26 CINCINNATI 23

	CHICK-fil-A BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 7:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

VIRGINIA (8-4) VS AUBURN (7-5)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
VIRGINIA	154	215	21	2.7	-	96.8
AUBURN	156	190	25	2.6	••••	101.6
Very unusual that two unranked tms are in the Chick-fil-A. These 2 have split their previous meetings with Aub winning in ‘97 28-17 and UVa shutting out the Tigers in ‘99, 19-0. Virginia exceeded expectations TY with 5 close wins by a comb 15 pts. The Cavs handed GT its 1st loss and then defeated UM and FSU on the road (4-1). They were 1 win from the ACC Title gm but lost a 38-0 loss to rival VT. This is UVa’s 18th bowl but 1st since their 31-28 loss to TTech in the ‘07 Gator Bowl. This is Aub’s 11th bowl gm in the L/12Y (7-3) and their 3rd time here during that span (1-1). The Tigers also played here in the SEC Champ gm LY (56-17 win over SC). UVa HC London is in his 2nd yr so this is his 1st bowl although he was DC/asst here for the previous 5 (3-2). HC Chizik is 2-0 in bowls naturally winning the Nat’l Title LY. UVa was 3-4 vs 7 bowl caliber tms being outscored 26-17 and outgained 377-361. The Tigers were 1-4 on the road TY getting outscored 36-14 (-136 yd) while they went 4-5 vs bowl tms getting outscored 33-21 and outgained 427-311. UVa has 13 Sr among 19 upperclassmen st’rs while the Tigers only have 5 Sr’s among 12 upperclassmen. This bowl has had 15 consecutive sellouts and London is hoping UVa’s fan base (doesn’t travel well) will respond since they only sold 10,500 for their last bowl ‘07. Auburn is one of the youngest bowl tms with only 5 Sr starters, yet they played one of the toughest schedules. The progression they made throughout the yr and the bowl practices will make them the superior tm here despite the losses of their DC and RB Dyer (OC Malzahn will still cch here).
PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 27 VIRGINIA 20

Today’s Bowl Forecasts

Phil Steele — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 16:44:03 +0000

	ARMED FORCES BOWL Friday, December 30th @ 12:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

TULSA (8-4) VS BYU (9-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
TULSA	168	230	29	2.9	-	90.4
BYU	142	270	31	2.8	•	96.1
Tulsa is 1-6 vs BYU but won the last gm in ‘07, 55-47. This will be the 1st meeting in a bowl/neutral site. TU HC Blankenship has guided the Hurricane to a bowl in his 1st ssn at the helm but has been on staff for the L/3 bowls (3-0). BYU HC Mendenhall has led the Cougars to a 7th str bowl in his 7th yr (4-2). Tulsa was 2-4 vs bowl tms being outscored 37-30 and outgained 480-440. BYU was 1-3 vs bowl squads also being outscored 33-20 and outgained 365-349 and beat only one schl with a winning record. Both ply’d UCF TY and ironically won by the same exact 24-17 score but BYU was outgained 399-260 while Tulsa outgained UCF 454-381. On the road TY BYU was 3-2 while Tulsa went 4-2. BYU has 9 Sr st’rs among their 16 upperclassmen. TU has 9 Sr st’rs but 18 upperclassmen. Tulsa is the smallest school that competes in DI but should have the crowd edge as the are just 260 miles away. BYU is 1,225 and was hoping that Houston would fall to this bowl after their CUSA Champ loss, so fans may be disappointed but Cougs normally travel well. TU also has played in this venue every other yr S/’96 (CUSA started) but is 1-7 while BYU won their last and only trip in ‘97. LY BYU rolled down the stretch winning their final 4 regular season games and then put up 52 in the bowl. This year they’ve won final 6 games, and in that stretch have avg’d 41 ppg, I’ll take the Cougars here in what should be a great bowl game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 31 TULSA 28

	PINSTRIPE BOWL Friday, December 30th @ 3:20 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

RUTGERS (8-4) VS IOWA ST (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
RUTGERS	121	215	16	3.2	•	96.1
IOWA ST	154	165	16	2.9	-	102.0
First meeting between these 2 schools who return to a bowl here after a year away from the postseason. The Knights have been to 5 bowls under HC Schiano going 4-1 while this is the 2nd bowl for ISU HC Rhoads who pulled the 14-13 upset over Minnesota in the ‘09 Insight Bowl. The HC’s are familiar with one another as Rhoads was Pitt’s DC from ‘00-’07 with the Panthers 5-3 (lost L/3). Iowa St has a large sked edge (#3-85) and these two had a common opp in Conn as the Cyclones came back from a HT deficit to pull out the win while the Knights were blasted 40-22 as they turned the ball over 6x’s. The Knights have also made a trip to Yankee Stadium TY as they beat Army 27-12 on Nov 12. Rutgers has ply’d 6 bowl squads going 4-2 but while they outscored those opp by a 27-20 clip, they were only outgained by 13 ypg. ISU was 2-6 vs bowl foes being outscored by 37-23 and outgained 484-389. The Knights did struggle away from home going just 2-3. ISU went 2-4 on the road. Rutgers has 7 Sr st’rs among 15 upperclassmen while ISU has 10 Sr’s and 17 upperclassmen. As you can see from my computer’s projection, these two tms are very close but I’ll go with the home-state Knights in this one as they have exp in the stadium and I have been impressed with Schiano’s bowl prep in the past.
PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 24 IOWA ST 23

	MUSIC CITY BOWL Friday, December 30th @ 6:40 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

WAKE FOREST (6-6) VS MISSISSIPPI ST (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
WAKE FOREST	145	215	18	1.6	-	100.2
MISSISSIPPI ST	195	200	26	1.1	-	101.3
First meeting. WF is bowl eligible for the 1st time S/’08, a 29-19 win over Navy. The Deacons broke a 3 game losing streak which include leading ND 17-10 1H and Clem 28-14 in 3Q. They finally clinched with a 38-10 win over MD but then were crushed by SEC Vandy 41-7 in their home finale (Vandy was 5-6 coming in). TY marks the 4th time WF has 5 wins in ACC play. This is MSU’s 1st appearance here selling thru their ticket allotment in just a day and their famous cowbells have already been approved by the bowl. It is the 1st time MSU has been in B2B bowls S/’99-’00 and it is Mullen’s 2nd bowl gm as a HC. LY they had a dominating 52-14 win over Mich. Wake is 6-3 all-time in bowls. This is HC Grobe’s 11th year at Wake and his 5th bowl (3-1). WF faced 7 bowl caliber tms being outscored 34-23 and outgained 461-346 going 2-5. The Bulldogs were 3-3 on the road TY outscoring their bowl foes 28-24 and outgaining them 402-370. MSU went 1-6 vs bowl tms getting outscored 27-16 and outgained 376-274. The Deacs have 10 Sr st’rs among 16 upperclassmen while the Bulldogs have 10 Sr starters among 18 upperclassmen. When comparing the teams numbers, MSU has played 4 tms which I rank in my Top 10 in defense and they avg’d under 10 ppg, as they also rushed for under 100 yds. Against weaker D’s, when they rushed for 150+ yds, they avg’d 38 ppg and they’ll be able to do that vs the smallish WF def front that’s all’g 4.4 ypc.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST 30 WAKE FOREST 20

	INSIGHT BOWL Friday, December 30th @ 10:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

IOWA (7-5) VS OKLAHOMA (9-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
IOWA	115	190	16	2.3	-	97.1
OKLAHOMA	150	325	27	2.8	•	100.7
Only 1 prior meeting, a 21-6 Sooners win in 1979 when the current OU HC was on the field in a Hawks uniform. Stoops is an Iowa alum who was a candidate for the HC job 13Y ago before Ferentz was hired. Ferentz is 6-3 in bowls and the Hawks are 4-1 vs current B12 squads in bowls incl LY’s upset of Missouri in the Insight Bowl with Stoops in the stands wearing Black and Gold. The OU boss is 6-6 in bowls. This is the Sooners first trip to the Insight though they’ve been to its sister Fiesta Bowl in 3 of the L/5 and it’s only the 2nd time they’ve faced a B10 tm in a bowl (14-6 win over Mich ‘75 Orange). Iowa has struggled on the road the L2Y including 1-4 TY (outscored by 3 ppg and outgained by 33 ypg). OU went 3-2 on the road TY outscoring foes by 8 ppg and outgaining them by 142 ypg. Iowa has 9 Sr’s among 16 upperclassmen st’rs while the Sooners have just 5 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen st’rs. Lineup the teams on Oct 1 and I’m picking the Sooners in a big blowout. However, after attrition has hit both their top RB and WR I was thinking Iowa might have the chance at the upset two weeks ago but now that Iowa RB Marcus Coker will be out and with no backup of his caliber, I’ll call for the Sooners here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 33 IOWA 23

Champs/Alamo Bowl Forecasts

Phil Steele — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 21:19:22 +0000

	CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL Thursday, December 29th @ 5:30 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NOTRE DAME (8-4) VS FLORIDA ST (8-4)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NOTRE DAME	107	200	19	2.7	-	100.6
FLORIDA ST	68	200	19	1.4	•••	100.9
This will be the 7th meeting for these 2 storied programs with FSU winning 4 of 6 incl 37-0 in ‘03 at South Bend. In ‘93 #1 FSU met #2 ND in the “Game of the Century” with the Irish pulling the 31-24 upset but the Noles went on to win the Nat’l Title as both finished with 1 loss. Their last bowl meeting was in ‘95 as FSU defeated ND 31-26 in the Orange Bowl. After an NCAA rec’d 9 gm bowl losing streak, ND has won their L/2 postssn appearances by a comb 44 pts and Kelly is 3-1 in bowls. The Noles have been to 30 consec bowls (FBS best) and this is Fisher’s 2nd bowl game winning the Chick-fil-A LY 26-17 over SC. The Irish went 5-3 vs bowl opp outscoring them 29-22 and outgaining them 402-386. FSU went 3-4 vs 7 bowl tms but outscored them 23-19 and outgained 317-313. ND played an ACC stretch of Wake, MD and BC going 3-0 outscoring them 28-17 and outgaining them 422-304. FSU went 2-1 vs same 3 opp’s with 23-16 score and 404-310 yardage edges. FSU went 2-2 on the road while ND was 4-2 away from South Bend. The Irish have 10 Sr st’rs and 17 upperclassmen while the Noles have 6 Sr’s among 16 upperclassmen. By looking at the teams, few gms besides the Nat’l Champ gm can match the talent on the field. The advantage FSU has is that they have a dominant Top 5 defense and is capable of shutting down even this ND offense. FSU’s offensive numbers are lower than expected but remember QB Manuel missed a few gms. ND has yet to face this type of spd on D and with the Noles having a big ST’s edge I’ll call for them to get the win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 NOTRE DAME 20

	ALAMO BOWL Thursday, December 29th @ 9:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

WASHINGTON (7-5) VS BAYLOR (9-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
WASHINGTON	181	275	35	2.6	•••	107.4
BAYLOR	209	365	48	2.4	-	99.2
The two squads met 4 times in 1950’s and 60’s with Baylor coming out victorious in all but one. The Bears have appeared in this gm once in their history, in ‘94 a 10-3 loss to Wash St as while the Huskies have never played in San Antonio. Both tms are in their 2nd consec bowl appearances after long layoffs with BU losing LY’s Texas Bowl 38-14 to IL after a 15 yr bowl drought while UW upset Neb 19-7 in Sarkisian’s bowl HC debut. Briles is 0-4 in the postseason. The Bears were slightly disappointed to end up a little over a 3 hr drive from home after finishing with their most wins since ‘86 and in the BCS’s top 15 after wins over OU and Texas. Their goal is to win a bowl for the 1st time S/’92 and they sold out their 12,500 allotment. The Huskies faced 6 bowl caliber tms in ‘11 going 2-4 while being outscored (38-26) and outgained (444-365) by substantial margins. The Bears were 5-3 vs bowl squads despite being outscored by 4 pts overall although they outgained those foes by 32 ypg. The Huskies struggled on the road with a 1-4 and the Bears did as well (1-3). UW has 8 Sr st’rs among 12 upperclassmen while BU has 7 Sr’s and 13 upperclassmen. While Washington limped to the finish losing 3 of their L/4, two of those were to Top 10 tm’s in Oregon and USC. They also are now in B2B bowls for the first time S/’01-’02. Baylor finished the year winning 5 straight but against the top 2 foes they faced, both Okla and Texas had attrition on the offensive side of the ball. I do not think this will be a blowout like what many are predicting but while the Heisman could be a distraction for RGIII, I don’t think the Huskies have enough on the defensive side of the ball to stop him completely.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BAYLOR 45 WASHINGTON 38

» College Football Forecasts

National Championship Forecast!

ALABAMA (11-1) VS LSU (13-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 21 LSU 17

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

PITTSBURGH (12-4) VS DENVER (8-8)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 20 DENVER 13

ARKANSAS ST (10-2) VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS ST 37 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Cotton Bowl Forecast!

KANSAS ST (10-2) VS ARKANSAS (10-2)

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 37 KANSAS ST 30

Orange Bowl Forecast

WEST VIRGINIA (9-3) VS CLEMSON (10-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 37 WEST VIRGINIA 30

Sugar Bowl Forecast!

MICHIGAN (10-2) VS VIRGINIA TECH (11-2)

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 26 MICHIGAN 24

January 2nd Bowl Forecasts!!!

PENN ST (9-3) VS HOUSTON (12-1)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 28 HOUSTON 27

MICHIGAN ST (10-3) VS GEORGIA (10-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 MICHIGAN ST 23

NEBRASKA (9-3) VS SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 NEBRASKA 20

FLORIDA (6-6) VS OHIO ST (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 23 FLORIDA 21

WISCONSIN (11-2) VS OREGON (11-2)

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 38 WISCONSIN 35

STANFORD (11-1) VS OKLAHOMA ST (11-1)

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 37 OKLAHOMA ST 35

New Year’s Eve Bowl Forecasts

TEXAS A&M (6-6) VS NORTHWESTERN (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 40 NORTHWESTERN 31

UTAH (7-5) VS GEORGIA TECH (8-4)

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 24 GEORGIA TECH 23

UCLA (6-7) VS ILLINOIS (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: ILLINOIS 24 UCLA 21

CINCINNATI (9-3) VS VANDERBILT (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: VANDERBILT 26 CINCINNATI 23

VIRGINIA (8-4) VS AUBURN (7-5)

PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 27 VIRGINIA 20

Today’s Bowl Forecasts

TULSA (8-4) VS BYU (9-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 31 TULSA 28

RUTGERS (8-4) VS IOWA ST (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 24 IOWA ST 23

WAKE FOREST (6-6) VS MISSISSIPPI ST (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST 30 WAKE FOREST 20

IOWA (7-5) VS OKLAHOMA (9-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 33 IOWA 23

Champs/Alamo Bowl Forecasts

NOTRE DAME (8-4) VS FLORIDA ST (8-4)

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 NOTRE DAME 20

WASHINGTON (7-5) VS BAYLOR (9-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: BAYLOR 45 WASHINGTON 38