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Military and Holiday Bowl Forecasts!

December 28th, 2011 1 comment
MILITARY BOWL
Wednesday, December 28th @ 4:30 p.m.
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TOLEDO (8-4) VS AIR FORCE (7-5)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
TOLEDO 247
215
39
2.3
-
91.8
AIR FORCE
268
190
37
2.5
•••
93.9
First meeting. Toledo is 2-6 vs current MW tms incl a 40-15 loss to Boise at home TY. AF hasn’t played a MAC tm since the late ‘70’s. This is the Rockets 12th all-time bowl (7-4) and while it is their 6th since ‘01 it is just their 2nd since ‘06. LY the Rockets blew a 24-7 lead and lost 34-32 to FIU in what was HC Beckman’s 1st and only bowl as a HC. AF had lofty expectations to start the ssn, but after a rough Oct, needed a win over CSU in the finale to land a bowl. With that win, they’ve won 7 or more in 5 str yrs, a schl rec’d. Falcons are 2-2 in bowls under Calhoun but 2-0 the L/2Y and he is the only cch in AF hist to lead his tm to bowls in his 1st 5Y with the prog. Toledo went 2-3 vs bowl tms but 2 losses were by a comb 8 pts. Falcons went 0-5 vs bowl tms being outscored 39-24 and outgained 431-424. UT tied for the MAC West but missed the Champ gm due to a head-to-head loss to NI, but should be excited here, while AF in the Military Bowl is a no brainer. I like the stability of the coaching staff at AF in this and I’ll take the Falcons in a tight high scoring affair.

PHIL’S FORECAST: AIR FORCE 38 TOLEDO 35

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Little Caesars/Belk Bowl Forecasts!

December 27th, 2011 No comments
LITTLE CASESARS BOWL
Tuesday, December 27th @ 4:30 p.m.
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WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5) VS PURDUE (6-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
WESTERN MICHIGAN 115
340
36
2.6
87.0
PURDUE
225
220
32
2.4
-
99.0
PU leads the series 2-0 winning both at home incl a 28-24 win in the last meeting in ‘02. WM is 6-31 all-time vs B10 tms but has 2 of those wins (Iowa ‘07 and Ill ‘08) under HC Cubit and came up just short vs UI earlier this ssn (23-20). Purdue is 38-9-1 vs MAC tms but lost to Tol 31-20. This is WM’s 5th all-time bowl, but their 3rd under Cubit (0-2). They are 0-4 incl a 38-14 loss to Rice in the ‘08 Texas Bowl. PU is in the postssn for the 1st time S/’07 and this is their 1st time bowling under HC Hope. Under ex-HC Tiller, who Hope served under as an asst in 2 diff stints, the Boilers went 4-6 in bowls usually spotting tms the lead (fell behind 98-0 in L/7). Of the 70 bowl tms, WM is last being outgained by an avg 168 ypg vs the 4 bowl tms they faced but went 1-3 in those gms losing 2 by 3 pts each. PU and bowl officials are hoping for a decent contingent in Black and Gold but keep in mind that PU avg’d just 45,225 fans per home gm TY (72% of stadium capacity) and failed to sell out any of its 7 gms in Ross-Ade Stadium. When you match a B10 vs a MAC team you expect significant edges to the BCS conference. This doesn’t hold true as Western has many players that actually rate higher than Purdue and it’s very obvious by looking at the offensive skill position players. Western showed they can clearly matchup with BCS teams as they were 17-17 FD’s at Michigan, only lost at Illinois 23-20 and beat Conn 38-31. Purdue meanwhile has had losses to MAC teams Toledo and Northern Illinois in recent years.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 PURDUE 31

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Independence Bowl Forecast!

December 26th, 2011 No comments
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Monday, December 26th @ 5:00 p.m.
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NORTH CAROLINA (7-5) VS MISSOURI (7-5)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NORTH CAROLINA 120
225
22
2.6
-
106.8
MISSOURI
165
245
24
2.9
..
111.1
These 2 have met twice before with MO taking both incl their last matchup 24-3 in ‘76. This is NC’s 4th str bowl (1-2) and 29th overall. LY NC defeated Tenn 30-27 after a controversial call in regulation cost the Vols the win (NC kicked the GW FG in the 2nd OT) in the Music City Bowl. This is Withers’ 1st bowl as a HC but he has been DC the L/3 bowls here under Davis. The Tigers head to their 8th bowl under Pinkel (3-4) and their 3rd Independence (1-1) with their 38-31 ‘05 win over SC the biggest bowl comeback win in school history (trailed 21-0 after 1Q). MO was snubbed by the B12’s bowl tie-ins but were helped by their outgoing conf to find a home in Shreveport. It’s put up or shut up time for Tiger fans who have been stereotyped as poor travelers. NC is 5-4 vs 9 bowl caliber tms being outscored 26-25 and outgained 370-356 (outFD’d in 7 out of 9). MO went 3-5 S vs bowl opp outscoring foes 31-30 and outgaining them 474-460. NC was 1-4 on the road while MO was 1-4. NC has 8 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen while MO has 11 Sr’s and 18 upperclassmen. These tms are very similar but North Carolina’s DL has reaped praise from many opposing coaches and their disruptiveness can actually be a difference in the gm. The Heels also will have the edge with the skill players on the field but I will go with the more exp’d HC and staff in this one.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSOURI 27 NORTH CAROLINA 26

Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

December 24th, 2011 No comments

HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
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NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
…. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

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Tonight’s Las Vegas Bowl Forecast!

December 22nd, 2011 No comments
2 LAS VEGAS BOWL
Thursday, December 22nd @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!
1

ARIZONA ST (6-6) VS BOISE ST (11-1)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
ARIZONA ST 79
295
27
2.6
-
104.9
BOISE ST
151
340
42
2.3
-
91.5
The last and only ASU/BSU gm was in ‘96, a 56-7 ASU win. This will be the last hurrah for ASU HC Erickson as he was fired foll’g the loss to Cal. Once controlling their own destiny in the P12 South, ASU dropped 4 consec to end the yr backing into this bowl where they’ve never played. BSU is no doubt disappointed to be here as a missed FG vs TCU cost them not only the MW Title, but also the BCS bid. ASU has the sked edge (#29-70). ASU went 3-4 vs bowl caliber tms despite score (32-29) and yd (435-414) edges. BSU went 7-1 vs bowl tms outscoring them 38-22 and outgaining them 453-345. The Sun Devils also struggled on the road going 1-4 while BSU ply’d here earlier TY and accounted for much of the crowd in that contest. On paper, the Broncos would clearly be the better team, but the game is played on the field. LY Maryland rallied behind a departing Fridge and I expect the same fever here. With that being said, Boise St has Kellen Moore who is going for an amazing 50th win as the starter and gets it here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 38 ARIZONA ST 28

Poinsettia Bowl Forecast!

December 21st, 2011 No comments

 

POINSETTIA BOWL
Wednesday, December 21st @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

LA TECH (8-4) VS TCU (10-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
LA TECH 85
225
22
2.3
-
95.2
TCU
160
210
27
2.8
-
91.6
First meeting. LT is making its 6th bowl appearance and their 1st under HC Dykes (WAC COY) and is 2-2-1. TCU is 6-4 in bowls under Patterson and ply’d an undefeated Boise in this bowl in ‘08, winning by 1. Tech stumbled out of the gate to a 1-4 start with 3 of its 1st 4 losses coming by a comb 9 pts, but got its ssn turned around in a big way and won 7 consec (most S/’74) with 5 coming on the road en route to claiming the WAC Title (first S/’01). Frogs went 5-2 vs bowl tms (2 losses by a comb 9 pts) outscoring those foes 35-29 and outgaining them 455-413. TCU tallied its 3rd MWC Title in its last go-round in the conf. For the 8th time under HC Patterson, TCU has 10 wins (4th str yr) and their 19 Sr’s became the 4th str class to set a TCU win record. Frogs may be in a letdown spot here as they’ve landed BCS gms the L2Y and held their breath for a 3rd str, but failed to jump into the Top 16. TCU traveled 30,000 to the Rose Bowl LY and 20,000+ to the Fiesta Bowl in ‘09, but expect less for this non-BCS gm. After B2B BCS appearances, and lobbying TY for a 3rd straight, this is not the matchup TCU wanted. LA Tech has now improved its record 3 straight years, and while an 8 win season is an improvement, a bowl win vs a team that won the Rose Bowl LY will be a feather in their cap. This one will be closer than what many think but in the end the Horned Frogs come away with the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 34 LOUISIANA TECH 27

St Petersburg Bowl Forecast!

December 20th, 2011 No comments

Download Phil Steele’s Free 2011-12 Bowl Guide
Info on all 35 Bowl Games Including:

Stat Leaders, Game By Game Stats, Past Meetings, Previous Bowl Game Results, Bowl Records, Computer Projected Box Scores.

Download it here for FREE!

ST PETERSBURG BOWL
Tuesday, December 20th @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

FIU (8-4) VS MARSHALL (6-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
FIU 148
215
25
1.9
90.5
MARSHALL
107
220
18
2.3
-
92.5
First meeting. After winning the SBC LY FIU was the coaches pick to repeat so the 3rd place finish was a disappointment. The 8 reg ssn wins was still the best in Golden Panther history. MU is pleased just to get to the postssn after not much hype in the pressn. FIU HC Cristobal won his 1st and only bowl gm LY beating Toledo 34-32 in the Little Caesars Bowl. MU HC Holliday is coaching his 1st bowl and the Herd are 6-2 in bowls winning their last in ‘09. FIU was 1-3 vs bowl caliber squads being outscored 24-20 and outgained 394-294 while MU was 2-5 also being outscored (38-17) and outgained (466-343). Both played Louisville and UCF with FIU going 2-0 (+7 ppg, -34 ypg) and MU (-3 ppg, -92 ypg). FIU went 4-2 on the road TY while MU was 2-5. FIU has just 4 Sr st’rs but fields 17 upperclassmen. MU has 10 Sr st’rs but just 13 upperclassmen. Cristobal took over this FIU program in 2007. He deserves credit after getting the Panthers to a 2nd straight bowl. It is now Doc Holliday who in his 2nd ssn took Marshall to a bowl and he did so by playing a much tougher sked. Five of Marshall’s losses were to bowl tms and the only other gm they lost was at UCF, vs a tm that was the CUSA Champ in ‘10. This fierce competition throughout the ssn will give them an edge here vs a tm which played one of the 5 weakest skeds in CFB.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MARSHALL 24 FIU 23

Today’s Bowl Forecasts!

December 17th, 2011 No comments

NEW MEXICO BOWL
Saturday, December 17th @ 2:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

TEMPLE (8-4) VS WYOMING (8-4)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
TEMPLE 287
80
24
2.1
••••
90.0
WYOMING
178
215
19
1.5
-
98.7
Second meeting with UW beating TU in the ‘90 ssn opener. The Owls have reached at least 8 wins for a 3rd str ssn for the 1st time in their hist. However, unlike LY when an 8-4 team sat at home, this 8-4 team is excited to be bowling. WY is thrilled to be here after a 3-9 ssn LY and being picked 6th in the MW. The Pokes finished #3 in the conf, had their most wins S/’98 and the biggest turnaround in the MW TY. This is just the Owls’ 4th all-time bowl but their 2nd in the L/3Y. They are 1-2 in bowls with the win in ‘79. UW is in a bowl for the 2nd time in 3Y under Christensen. In their last visit to the NM Bowl (‘09), Christensen also had a true Fr at the helm and upset Fresno in 2OT. This is Addazio’s 1st bowl as a HC but he went to 6 bowls as an asst at Fla, incl 2 as OC. Of the 70 bowl tms, the Owls faced the fewest bowl tms going 0-3 in those gms. UW went 2-4 vs bowl tms. These two both ply’d BG TY with WY pulling a 28-27 upset on the road with a blk’d PAT (WY outgained 514-396) while TU was upset in a 13-10 loss at BG (TU outgained 318-284). TU is a veteran squad with 13 Sr st’rs among 15 upperclassmen while WY is a young squad with 8 frosh/soph st’rs and 15 others in the 2 deep. While TU rates a little better on D, UW has a slight edge on offense and has the ability to pull the upset here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEMPLE 24 WYOMING 23

 

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Week 14 Selections for Every Game!

December 2nd, 2011 No comments
Time Game Phil Steele Weekly Poll Computer Pts Computer            +/-
Yds
Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM West Virginia at South Florida USF WVU USF WVU USF WVU WVU
By 3 84% 30-28 428-417 By 2 By 0.2 By 1
7:00 PM Ohio vs. Northern Illinois OHIO NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU
By 3 67% 34-33 495-275 By 6 By 2.6 By 3.5
8:00 PM UCLA at Oregon ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE
By 30 100% By 47-14 543-344 By 27 By 22.5 By 31.5
12:00 PM Southern Miss at Houston UH UH UH UH UH UH UH
By 24 97% 50-25 592-393 By 24.25 By 16.5 By 12.5
12:00 PM Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT
By 24 94% 31-13 417-273 By 17 By 10.1 By 10.5
12:00 PM Connecticut at Cincinnati Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy
By 14 94% 29-18 467-278 By 8.25 By 12.6 By 9.5
12:30 PM Iowa St at Kansas St K State K State K State K State K State K State K State
By 17 94% 27-14 367-303 By 17.25 By 8.2 By 10.5
2:00 PM Wyoming at Colorado St WYO WYO WYO CSU WYO WYO WYO
By 3 75% 32-19 429-421 By 10.75 By 2.2 By 5.5
2:30 PM UNLV at  TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU
By 45 99% 50-7 520-200 By 41.25 By 36 By 39
3:30 PM  Texas at Baylor Texas BU TIE BU Texas BU BU
By 7 77% 30-30 434-396 By 3 By 2.1 By 2.5
3:30 PM Utah St at New Mexico St USU USU USU USU USU USU USU
By 10 87% 40-25 454-416 By 12 By 11.6 By 13
4:00 PM Georgia vs. LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU
By 7 95% 30-16 315-270 By 14 By 5.6 By 13.5
4:00 PM ULM at FAU FAU ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM
By 1 66% 35-19 363-274 By 12.50 By 12.6 By 7.5
4:00 PM Middle Tennessee at North Texas NT NT NT NT NT NT NT
By 7 73% 34-24 434-416 By 13 By 4.1 By 5.5
4:05 PM Idaho at Nevada NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV
By 25 94% 33-16 552-265 By 17.50 By 24.3 By 20
4:30 PM Troy at Arkansas St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St
By 17 88% 40-17 534-293 By 20.50 By 22.1 By 17.5
6:00 PM New Mexico at Boise St Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise
By 45 99% 57-4 573-147 By 51 By 50.4 By 49
7:30 PM Brigham Young at Hawaii BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU
By 17 84% 35-19 420-365 By 15.75 By 3.8 By 7.5
8:00 PM Oklahoma at Oklahoma St OU OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST
By 1 59% 40-32 532-523 By 4.25 By 2.5 By 3.5
8:00 PM Virginia Tech vs. Clemson VT VT VT VT VT VT VT
By 10 70% 37-21 420-360 By 14 By 5.6 By 7
8:00 PM Fresno St at San Diego St SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU
By 6 86% 32-24 451-411 By 8.75 By 9.8 By 8
8:17 PM Wisconsin vs. Michigan St MSU WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC
By 1 80% 34-26 395-305 By 9 By 7.1 By 9.5
LW 39-15 (72%)
YTD 569-185 (75%)

Week 14 Top 25 Forecasts

November 30th, 2011 1 comment

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 100
170
16
2.6
-
LSU
170
145
30
2.3
•••
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20

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