By Phil Steele
You asked for it – and you got it! Fans of the FCS were hitting my twitter (@philsteele042 – do you follow?) asking for a writeup for today’s game. So for your reading pleasure, here is my forecast for the FCS National Championship!
By Phil Steele
Welcome to Phil Steele’s FCS Playoff Central. It’s almost here – the FCS National Championship kicks on January 5th with North Dakota St and Sam Houston St meeting in Frisco, Texas. Here you’ll find a breakdown of the game. Click on either helmet (and speaking of the helmets, make sure to visit The Helmet Project) to go to the team’s page. Check out the schedules/results for all of the playoff teams. Get the latest news and stats from the teams themselves. Don’t forget to update your bracket. And – best yet – vote for you who think will win the big game!
Welcome to Phil Steele’s FCS Playoff Central. Here you’ll find a breakdown of who is playing in the Semifinals. Click on any helmet (and speaking of the helmets, make sure to visit The Helmet Project) to go to the team’s page. Check out the schedules/results for all of the playoff teams. Get the latest news and stats from the teams themselves. See how the team’s did last week. Don’t forget to update your bracket. And – best yet – vote for you who think will get into the big game!
Welcome to Phil Steele’s FCS Playoff Central. Here you’ll find a breakdown of who is playing in the Quarterfinals. Click on any helmet (and speaking of the helmets, make sure to visit The Helmet Project) to go to the team’s page. Check out the schedules/results for all of the playoff teams. Get the latest news and stats from the teams themselves. See how the team’s did last week. Don’t forget to update your bracket. And – best yet – vote for you who think will move onto the next round
Welcome to Phil Steele’s FCS Playoff Central. Here you’ll find a breakdown of who is playing in the second round. Click on any helmet (and speaking of the helmets, make sure to visit The Helmet Project) to go to the team’s page. Check out the schedules/results for all of the playoff teams. Looking for rankings? How about Phil Steele’s Power Poll and Power Ratings. Get the latest news and stats from the teams themselves. See how the team’s did last week. Don’t forget to update your bracket. And – best yet – vote for you who think will move onto the next round
Read more…
Welcome to Phil Steele’s FCS Playoff Central. Here you’ll find a breakdown of who is playing in the first round. Click on any helmet (and speaking of the helmets, make sure to visit The Helmet Project) to go to the team’s page. Check out the schedules/results for all of the playoff teams. Looking for rankings? How about Phil Steele’s Power Poll and Power Ratings. Get the latest news and stats from the teams themselves. Don’t forget to print your bracket. And – best yet – vote for you who think will move on to Round 2!
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FCS National Championship Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m. |
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#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0) |
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Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
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| NORTH DAKOTA ST | 139 |
130
|
23
|
1.7
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| SAM HOUSTON ST |
151
|
190
|
22
|
1.7
|
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| This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS. | ||||||
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23 |
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#5 Northern Iowa at #4 Montana |
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| NORTHERN IOWA | 116 |
105
|
16
|
1.8
|
-
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| MONTANA |
204
|
195
|
22
|
3.0
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-
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Montana is 4-0 vs UNI (3-0 at home) with the last 2 meetings coming in the playoffs in 1994 (23-20) and 2001 (38-0). All 5 seeded teams won last week so UNI’s #5 tag and $4.00 gets them a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but with a couple of upsets it could be useful next week. The Panthers were outgained 478-238 by Wofford LW but still had a 21-14 lead when they got a huge gift. Wofford’s KR stood in his own EZ with the ball but did not kneel and so UNI players hit him causing a fumble that was recovered for a TD and a 28-21 lead. Montana on the other hand had a 415-290 yd edge and after leading 31-0 at half over Central Arkansas cruised to a 41-14 win. They have defeated their last 3 FCS opp by a combined 118-30 (incl Montana St). We’ll take the Grizzlies on a 20 degree night in Missoula team over the Panthers who were at home in their dome last week.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 24 NORTHERN IOWA 17 |
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Stony Brook at #1 Sam Houston St |
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Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| STONY BROOK | 181 |
115
|
25
|
2.1
|
-
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| SAM HOUSTON ST |
204
|
215
|
39
|
1.6
|
-
|
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First meeting. Stony Brook won their first ever playoff game becoming the first Big South Conf team to win a playoff game with a come from behind win over Albany. They trailed 28-10 early 3Q but scored 21 unanswered pts ending with a 422-348 yd edge. While SB did not face a playoff tm in the regular ssn but did play 2 FBS tms incl a previous trip to Texas in their opener as they lost 31-24 in OT to UTEP despite a 410-401 yd edge. A week later they lost 35-7 to Buffalo (outgained 342-298). After losing their starting QB Michael Coulter to ssn ending surgery after 4 starts, SB was led by Kyle Essington. In 6 of his 7 reg ssn starts (4 pass att vs CCU in snowstorm) he avg’d 229 ypg (66%) with a 15-1 ratio. Essington threw for 258 yds (50%) with a 2-1 ratio vs Albany LW. The Seawolves strong running game is led by the duo of Miguel Maysonet (1560, 6.6, 15 TD) and Brock Jackolski (1332, 6.6, 15TD). However Albany did hold SB to a ssn low 164 yds rushing (3.2). Sam Houston St is returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. They come in as the #1 seed as they are the only undefeated team in the FCS. They only faced 1 playoff team TY beating Central Arkansas 31-10 with a 415-271 yd edge (UCA QB Dick knocked out of gm). However they also beat FBS New Mexico 48-45 with a 547-528 yd edge which was the last straw costing NM HC Mike Locksley his job. The Bearkats are led by QB Brian Bell who is avg 161 ypg (63%) with a 14-3 ratio with 147 yds (2.5)rushing. RB Tim Flanders is a Big reason for SHSU’s success leading the team with 1095 yds (5.0, 20 TD) rushing and is the #1 receiver with 27 rec (15.0). Unfortunately for Stony Brook they not only face the #1 seed but also the #1 rush D and scoring D in the FCS as SHSU is allowing just 59 ypg (2.3) rushing and 12.6 ppg. While SB is #4 in the FCS in TO Margin (+17) SHSU is #2 (+24). Look for the Bearkats to win their 14th straight.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 38 STONY BROOK 24 |
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MURRAY ST AT LOUISVILLE |
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Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| MURRAY ST | 95 |
233
|
21
|
1.1
|
-
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| LOUISVILLE | 251 |
273
|
1
|
2.6
|
-
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Louisville is 11-6 vs Murray St winning the last 3 meetings including their last in 2007, 73-10. Louisville is 7-0 vs FCS teams but LY only got by Eastern Kentucky 23-13, Murray St is 0-15 vs FBS teams since 1998 losing by a avg 50-10 but have never been held scoreless in that time. The Cardinals are in the 2nd year under HC Charlie Strong and return just 10 starters and must replace their top 2 QB’s, their top RB and their top 2 receivers. Murray St is led by 2nd year HC Chris Hatcher who led the Racers to their first winning season since 2004. They return 17 starters including QB Casey Brockman (2442 pass yds) and their top 3 rushers. Louisville just made a bowl last year at 6-6 and should give their full attention to in-state MSU. However, the Racers have the talent to make this game interesting.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 44 MURRAY ST 20 |
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SOUTH CAROLINA ST AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
|
| SOUTH CAROLINA ST | 90 |
123
|
19
|
2.5
|
-
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| CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 136 |
288
|
30
|
3.0
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- |
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CMU is 10-1 vs FCS foes since 1998 with a shutout in each of the last 2 years including beating MEAC member Hampton 33-0 last year. SCSU has played a total of 6 FBS opponents the last 4 years being shutout twice and losing by an avg 37-5. Last year they lost 41-10 to Geogia Tech but were only outgained 384-272. The Chippewas are off their first losing season since 2004. They return 14 starters and are in the 2nd year under HC Dan Enos. With a game at Kentucky on deck look for CMU to not look past SCSU especially since a 44-14 loss to North Dakota St in 2007 is still in recent memory. SCSU returns just 11 starters and has a big MEAC game on deck vs Bethune-Cookman and may be looking to get out of this game as healthy as possible.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 SOUTH CAROLINA ST 14 |
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