» FCS

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 17:19:44 +0000

	FCS National Championship Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m.

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s
NORTH DAKOTA ST	139	130	23	1.7
SAM HOUSTON ST	151	190	22	1.7
This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

	COMPASS BOWL Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
SMU	97	258	15	3.6	-	93.8
PITTSBURGH	134	168	24	1.3	••	100.4
SMU and Pitt have met 5 times (2-2-1), most recently back in the 1983 Cotton Bowl, a 7-3 Mustang win. Pitt also has familiarity with Legion Field as this is the 2nd str yr they are playing in the Compass (27-10 win over Kentucky LY). HC Jones is 5-3 in bowls and has guided SMU to their 3rd str postssn (1-1, 1st time S/’82-’84, pre-death penalty, matches schl’s best streak). Pitt struggled vs bowl tms TY going just 1-6 being outscored by 6 ppg and outgained by 33 ypg. SMU was 1-4 vs bowl tms being outscored 36-14 and outgained 466-333. Pitt went just 1-3 away from home TY while SMU also struggled going 2-4. Pitt has 10 Sr st’rs among 16 upperclassmen. SMU has 12 among their 18 upperclassmen. A better offense, better defense, better special teams and having played a tougher sked, would have made this an easy choice prior to Pitt HC Graham leaving for Arizona St. Now Pitt must deal with yet another interim HC but did play well in this very bowl gm LY under the same circumstances. SMU players have gone thru the gamut as well of hearing Jones’ name come up for numerous jobs (ironically one was ASt) and are they now wondering if they are playing for a lame duck HC as well? I will stick with my initial pick with the Panthers getting another Compass Bowl win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

	AFC WILDCARD SATURDAY, JANUARY 7TH 4:30 PM ET NBC

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
CINCINNATI	87	188	18	1.9	#10	97.6
HOUSTON	158	223	22	1.1	#11	97.2
The Texans defeated the Bengals 20-19 just 4 wks ago to win the AFC South. CIN had a 16-3 lead at the end of the 1H being held to 3 FG’s on 3 trips inside the HOU31. The Texans crushed them in the 2H with 16-6 FD and 202-81 yd edges with Yates leading an 80/13pl yd drive for the GW TD. HOU is 5-3 at home TY with a +103 yd margin (-2 TO’s) for a 22-6 avg score. CIN finished 5-3 on the road TY for a -16 yd difference (+2 TO’s) for a 24-21 avg score. The AFC North/South squared off TY with CIN going 5-4 vs common foes for a +14 ypg margin (+2 TO’s) with a 23-22 avg scoring deficit. HOU was +85 ypg on avg (+5 TO’s) for a 24-15 avg score going 6-3 in those. While this is HOU’s 1st playoff game ever CIN doesn’t have much of an edge as they haven’t won a playoff game since Jan 1991. Reliant Stadium will be incredibly loud here and Dalton’s only other dome game was vs STL. Despite resting key players LW (& Yates leaving early) HOU put in a good game vs TEN and got their confidence back. Yates is expected to start vs a team HOU beat on the road. CIN has promise for 2012 but the Texans are deeper on both sides of the ball with a big intangible edge and are my pick to win it.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

	NFC WILDCARD SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH 8:00 PM ET NBC

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
DETROIT	57	370	23	1.3	#27	99.5
NEW ORLEANS	158	413	40	1.7	#6	97.5
NO beat the Lions 31-17 on SNF just 5 weeks ago as Brees hit for 342 yds (72%) with 3 TD’s and a 9.5 ypa vs a Lions defense short 3 starters (DT Suh, FS Delmas, CB Houston). The Saints went into the half with a 304-184 yd edge with a 24-7 lead and held DET to 0-6 on 3rd downs on in the 2H. Stafford had 408 yds passing (70%) with a 1-1 ratio but DET was still playing undisciplined ball and was hit with 11 penalties. Common foes are plentiful with the NFC North and South squaring off TY with NO being +106 ypg (-6 TO’s) with a 33-22 avg score for a 7-2 mark. DET went 5-4 vs the same foes with a +37 yd difference (-2 TO’s) for a 28-27 score deficit. This is DET’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and 1st playoff game since 1999 for a franchise that hasn’t won a postseason game since Jan 1992. DET went 5-3 on the road TY with a +34 yd mark (-2 TO’s) and a 29-28 avg score. Incl playoffs since 2008, NO has been lethal at home vs a non-div foe with a 19-3 mark winning 8 straight by a 37-17 avg score with a +169 yd differential. After the CAR game WR Colston noted “mentally and emotionally, we’re as prepared as a team can be.” DET has to be commended for making the playoffs but getting shredded by Matt Flynn LW has to be a big concern for a defense which now faces the record-setting Brees. NO has better depth, a huge crowd edge and much more experience in this situation. Who dat say gonna beat dem Saints? Not the Lions!
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Tonight’s FCS Playoff Forecast

Phil Steele — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 20:46:18 +0000

#5 Northern Iowa at #4 Montana
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NORTHERN IOWA	116	105	16	1.8	-
MONTANA	204	195	22	3.0	-

Montana is 4-0 vs UNI (3-0 at home) with the last 2 meetings coming in the playoffs in 1994 (23-20) and 2001 (38-0). All 5 seeded teams won last week so UNI’s #5 tag and $4.00 gets them a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but with a couple of upsets it could be useful next week. The Panthers were outgained 478-238 by Wofford LW but still had a 21-14 lead when they got a huge gift. Wofford’s KR stood in his own EZ with the ball but did not kneel and so UNI players hit him causing a fumble that was recovered for a TD and a 28-21 lead. Montana on the other hand had a 415-290 yd edge and after leading 31-0 at half over Central Arkansas cruised to a 41-14 win. They have defeated their last 3 FCS opp by a combined 118-30 (incl Montana St). We’ll take the Grizzlies on a 20 degree night in Missoula team over the Panthers who were at home in their dome last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 24 NORTHERN IOWA 17

FCS Playoff Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 16:50:12 +0000

Stony Brook at #1 Sam Houston St
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
STONY BROOK	181	115	25	2.1	-
SAM HOUSTON ST	204	215	39	1.6	-

First meeting. Stony Brook won their first ever playoff game becoming the first Big South Conf team to win a playoff game with a come from behind win over Albany. They trailed 28-10 early 3Q but scored 21 unanswered pts ending with a 422-348 yd edge. While SB did not face a playoff tm in the regular ssn but did play 2 FBS tms incl a previous trip to Texas in their opener as they lost 31-24 in OT to UTEP despite a 410-401 yd edge. A week later they lost 35-7 to Buffalo (outgained 342-298). After losing their starting QB Michael Coulter to ssn ending surgery after 4 starts, SB was led by Kyle Essington. In 6 of his 7 reg ssn starts (4 pass att vs CCU in snowstorm) he avg’d 229 ypg (66%) with a 15-1 ratio. Essington threw for 258 yds (50%) with a 2-1 ratio vs Albany LW. The Seawolves strong running game is led by the duo of Miguel Maysonet (1560, 6.6, 15 TD) and Brock Jackolski (1332, 6.6, 15TD). However Albany did hold SB to a ssn low 164 yds rushing (3.2). Sam Houston St is returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. They come in as the #1 seed as they are the only undefeated team in the FCS. They only faced 1 playoff team TY beating Central Arkansas 31-10 with a 415-271 yd edge (UCA QB Dick knocked out of gm). However they also beat FBS New Mexico 48-45 with a 547-528 yd edge which was the last straw costing NM HC Mike Locksley his job. The Bearkats are led by QB Brian Bell who is avg 161 ypg (63%) with a 14-3 ratio with 147 yds (2.5)rushing. RB Tim Flanders is a Big reason for SHSU’s success leading the team with 1095 yds (5.0, 20 TD) rushing and is the #1 receiver with 27 rec (15.0). Unfortunately for Stony Brook they not only face the #1 seed but also the #1 rush D and scoring D in the FCS as SHSU is allowing just 59 ypg (2.3) rushing and 12.6 ppg. While SB is #4 in the FCS in TO Margin (+17) SHSU is #2 (+24). Look for the Bearkats to win their 14th straight.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 38 STONY BROOK 24

New Hampshire at Montana St
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NEW HAMPSHIRE	181	205	32	2.7	-
MONTANA ST	209	270	34	2.7	-

Both teams had a bye LW and the only prior meeting was in the 1976 Div-II quarterfinals when MSU won 17-16 at home. NH is playing in their 8th straight FCS playoffs. LY the Wildcats went 1-1 on the road in the playoffs beating Bethune-Cookman 45-20 but losing to eventual runner-up, Delaware 16-3. TY after losing to FBS Toledo in their opener, the Wildcats went 3-1 vs playoff teams outscoring them by an avg 37-34 and outgaining them by an avg 437-201 That 1 loss to CAA Champ Towson 56-42, despite a 611-527 yd edge (even TO). NH ended their reg ssn with a 30-27 win over Maine, which kept the Bears from sharing the CAA crown. The Wildcats are led by QB Kevin Decker with 279 ypg (69.7%) with a 20-14 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 417 (3.4, 9 TD). His 2 top targets are WR’s Joey Orlando (49, 12.6, 3 TD) and frosh RJ Harrish (46, 14.3, 7 TD). They have 3 RB’s with 338+ yds led by Dontra Peters with 568 (5.1, 7 TD). Montana St makes their 2nd straight playoffs and 5th overall and will try to win their 1st playoff gm since 2006 as LY they were shocked at home 42-17 by NDSU. For a 2nd straight ssn they shared the Big Sky Conf Title but are off a 36-10 loss to Rival Montana, as they were outgained 473-250. Surprisingly that was the only playoff team they faced TY as the other BSC teams beat up on each other keeping them out of the playoffs. They did open vs Utah losing 27-10 but were only outgained 292-258 (-2 TO). The Bobcats are led by QB DeNarius McGhee with 215 ypg (61%) with a 22-10 ratio and 244 yds (3.4, 3 TD) rushing. His top rec is former Oregon St transfer Elvis Akpla with 49 rec (9.2, 11 TD). RB Cody Kirk leads with 1,233 (5.8) and 14 TD’s. Heading into the ssn’s final week, NH looked to be a team on the playoff bubble as a loss to Maine would leave them just 7-4, but the win made them an easy pick. MSU looked to be a lock for a playoff seed but a blowout loss to Montana gave the Grizzlies a seed and left the Bobcats disappointed. The Wildcats are experienced on the playoff road with 9 of them in the past 5 yrs going 4-5 but have won their playoff opener 3 straight years. While MSU will not want to be knocked out in the 1st round for a 2nd straight ssn they must face an experienced NH team that has faced a tougher schedule. Look for the Wildcats to pull of the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW HAMPSHIRE 31 MONTANA ST 30

Wofford at #5 Northern Iowa
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WOFFORD	281	75	17	2.7	-
NORTHERN IOWA	169	190	30	1.4	-

First meeting. Both teams had a bye LW which should give UNI the advantage preparing for the Terriers Wingbone offense. Both teams will be making their 4th playoff appearances in the last 5 years. UNI came up just short vs Iowa St in their opener losing 20-19 despite a 385-328 yd edge. Their only other loss was against the only playoff team they faced losing to North Dakota St 27-19 and were only out gained 349-345 but were -2 TO including an int that ended QB Tirrell Rennie’s school record streak of 171 passes without an int. Wofford gave Clemson a scare losing 35-27 and only being outgained 476-399. The Terriers faced 2 playoff teams (both SoCon foes) beating Appalachian St 28-14 (407-247 yd edge) and losing to #3 seed Georgia Southern 31-10 (outgained 401-278). UNI QB Rennie is avg 164 ypg (60%) with a 11-2 ratio and lead the team with 739 (5.4, 9 TD) rushing. Not far behind is RB David Johnson with 730 (4.4, 8 TD) who also leads with 30 rec (13.6, 3 TD). Two WR’s actually have more rec yds in Terrell Sinkfield (27 rec, 17.0, 6 TD) and Jared Herring (27, 15.6, 3 TD). UNI also has the #4 scoring defense (16.2 ppg) and is #5 in TO Margin (+15). Wofford leads the FCS with 356 ypg rushing. QB Mitch Allen is avg just 64 ypg (76%) with a 4-7 ratio but is the #3 rusher with 700 (5.0, 10 TD). Their top 2 rushers are RB Eric Breitenstein with 1,343 yds (5.8, 16 TD) and Donovan Johnson with 897 (9.0, 9 TD). WR Brenton Bersin has 23 (18.4, 2TD)of the tm’s 48 rec. Thanks to a 23-20 OT win over Illinois St in the ssn finale, which surprisingly kept the Redbirds out of the playoffs, UNI shared the MVFC Crown with #2 seed North Dakota St. Wofford needed a TD with :37 left to beat Chattanooga 28-27, to get the at-large bid as a loss would have put them on the playoff bubble. LY Wofford was knocked out by GSU 23-20 in the playoffs while UNI was upset 14-7 by Lehigh at home and heard about it all offseason. Surprisingly UNI is just 3-3 in the playoffs at the UNI-dome since 2006. Look for the Panthers to end all the talk and send the Terriers home early.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTHERN IOWA 30 WOFFORD 20

Central Arkansas at Montana
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS	51	245	20	2.3	-
MONTANA	179	275	32	2.9	-

First meeting. The Bears started the season 1-3 but those 3 losses were to eventual #1 seed Sam Houston St and 2 FBS teams incl a 48-42 OT loss to Louisianna Tech. The Bears have now 8 straight incl LW in their 1st ever playoff gm as they never trailed on the road LW beating OVC Champ Tenn Tech 34-14 with a 436-349 yd edge. The other playoff team they face TY was SHSU, as they lost 31-10 being outgained 415-271 after starting QB Nathan Dick was knocked out on a late hit. LY the Grizzlies saw their streaks of 12 straight BCS Title and 17 straight playoff appearances both end. Montana started TY 2-2 with losses to FBS Tennessee (42-16) and Sacramento St (42-28). They won their next 7 straight incl against the only playoff tm they faced with a statement 36-10 win over rival MSU (473-250 yd edge). Thus restarting both of their streaks. Former Arkansas transfer QB Nathan Dick is avg 274 ypg (64%) with a 30-8 ratio and 103 yds (1.8, 2 TD) rushing for UCA. Former Ole Miss transfer WR Jesse Grandy leads with 46 rec (15.9, 8 TD). RB Jackie Hinton leads the Bear’s ground game with 666 (4.7, 4 TD). Grizzly QB Jordan Johnson is avg 179 ypg (59%) with a 15-6 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 330 (5.3, 3 TD). Having to replace their #2 all-time leading rusher TY Montana used the RB-by-comitee approach led by Peter Nguyan (589, 5.7, 1 TD), Jordan Canada (474, 5.6, 5 TD) and Dan Moore (342, 3.5, 7 TD). Their top 2 receivers are Jabin Sambrano (28, 17.6, 7 TD) and Sam Gratton (365, 12.6, 1 TD). While Montana has the playoff history this will actually be Robin Pflugrad first FCS playoff gm as a HC while it will be UCA’s HC Clint Conque’s 2nd. While QB Dick should keep it closer then the computer projects look for the Grizzlies to pull out the win in the Battle of the Bears.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 31 CENTRAL ARKANSAS 24

Old Dominion at #3 Georgia Southern
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
OLD DOMINION	101	230	27	1.8	-
GEORGIA SOUTHERN	289	225	40	1.9	-

First meeting. GSU has the long playoff history but is actually playing in just their 2nd playoffs in the last 6 years but did come up 1 gm short of the Championship game LY. Old Dominion won an at-large after finishing tied for 2nd in the highly competitive CAA but ins in their 1st ever FCS playoffs. ODU faced just 2 of the other 4 CAA playoff teams losing to CAA Champ Towson 39-35 (outgained 535-482) and upsetting James Madison 23-23 (362-342 yd edge). ODU won their first ever FCS playoff game defeating MEAC Champ Norfolk St 35-18 thanks in part to being +2 TO’s as they only had a 406-385 yd edge. GSU leads the FCS with 6 Championships but their last one was in 2000. In fact they are in just their 2nd playoffs in the past 6 years. GSU went 1-1 vs playoff teams losing 24-17 to App St being outgained 320-201 but with the SoCon Crown on the line blew out Wofford 31-10 with a 401-278 yd edge. They finished the reg ssn losing to #2 Alabama 45-24 (out gained 462-341) but had 302 yds rushing against the then #1 rush D in the FBS. They were able to recover from that physical game with a bye last week. The Monarchs True frosh QB Taylor Heinicke took over the starting job at the half of game #5.He is avg 255 ypg (71%) with an amazing 20-1 ratio and is the #3 rusher with 290 yds (4.7, 3 TD). ODU has 5 rec’s with 34+ rec led by Nick Meyers with 57 (11.5, 7 TD) and Reid Evans with 46 (11.9, 3 TD). Their top 2 rushers are Angus Harper with 602 yds (4.5, 9 TD) and Colby Goodwyn with 534 (4.5, 3 TD)/. The Eagles have the FCS’s #2 rushing offense (319 ypg) led by former Georgia Tech transfer QB Jaybo Shaw who is avg 99.6 ypg (52%) with an 8-3 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 364 yds (9.1, 5 TD). They have 3 RB’s with 537+ yds led by Robert Brown with 834 (6.4, 5 TD). While top rec Jonathan Bryant has just 9 rec he is avg an amazing 33.7 ypc with 2 TD’s. While ODU has the FCS’s #10 scoring offense (35.8) GSU has the #7 scoring offense (35.9). Look for the game to be closer than the computer predicts but we can’t go against the #2 seed at home especially as ODU only has a week to prepare for the option.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 37 OLD DOMINION 28

Maine at Appalachian St
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MAINE	96	215	23	2.9	-
APPALACHIAN ST	124	270	26	2.5	-

Both teams are 8-3 and coming off a bye. Maine won the only previous meeting 14-13 in the opening round of the 2002 playoffs on the road. The Black Bears are making their 4th playoffs under 19 yr HC Jack Cosgrove but just their 2nd in the past 8 years. Their last trip in 2008 lasted 1 game a 40-15 loss at Northern Iowa. The Mountaineers are making their 16th playoff trip (7th straight) under 23 yr HC Jerry Moore who has led them 3 straight FCS Championship (‘05-07). However in 2 of the last 3 yrs App St has been knocked out by a CAA team including Villanova LY (42-24). The Black Bears only lost to Pitt 35-29 being outgained by just 381-371. Against 3 playoff teams they went 1-2 being outgained in all three. They beat JMU 25-24 in OT (385-402) but lost to CAA Champ Towson 40-30 (341-418) and with a possible share of the CAA crown on the line lost to New Hampshire 30-27 (336-361). App St did not fare as well vs their FBS for losing 66-13 to Virginia Tech (outgained 548-293, -4 TO). They went 1-1 vs playoff teams losing 28-14 to Wofford (outgained 407-247) but handed #2 seed GSU their only FCS loss 24-17 (320-201 yd edge). Maine is led by QB Warren Smith, who is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 17-10 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 249 (2.6, 6 TD). The Bears have 5 receivers with 28+ rec’s led by Mauri MacDonalds with 58 (10.2, 5 TD) and Justin Perillo with 45 (9.9, 3 TD). RB Pushuan Brown leads with 944 yds (4.9, 10 TD), App St QB Jamal Jackson replaced DeAndre Pressley (812 pass, 386 all-purp), starting the last 6 games. Jackson is avg 192 ypg (62%) with a 14-6 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 308 yds (3.9, 7 TD). His top target is WR Brian Quick with 64 rec (16.5, 11 TD). RB Travaris Cadet leads with just 655 yds (4.5, 5 TD). While Maine is a surprise team TY, App St’s 3 reg ssn losses are their most since 2005, but of course that is the year of their 1st FCS Championship. While Maine has just 1 net close win App St has 4 TY. The Computer ranks these teams as even calling for App St to win by their 3 pt home edge but we will call for the upset as the Bears have had 2 weeks to think about their 3 pt loss to NH.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MAINE 24 APPALACHIAN ST 23

Lehigh at Towson
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
LEHIGH	86	300	28	2.4	-
TOWSON	214	190	31	2.6	-

Lehigh leads the series 10-1 but have not face Towson since they left the Patriot League in 2003. While many expected Lehigh to repeat as Patriot League Champs TY, few expected Towson coming off 4 straight losing seasons to win the CAA Crown. That was the Tigers 1st conf Championship since moving up to 1-AA in 1987, while the Mountain Hawks took home their 10th PL crown. Towson is playing in their 1st FCS playoff gm, Lehigh is playing in their 8th but just their 2nd in the last 7 years, Towson lost to Maryland 28-3 despite a 378-335 yd edge (-3 TO), They did go 3-0 vs playoff teams winning 39-35 over ODU (555-482 yd edge), 40-30 over Maine (418-341 yd edge) and 56-42 over New Hampshire (outgained 611-517). Lehigh face just 1 playoff team losing to New Hampshire 48-41 in OT (outgained 506-447). Lehigh QB Chris Lum is avg 340 ypg (67%) with a 31-15 ratio and 96 rush yds (1.78, 2 TD). Their top 2 rec’s are Ryan Spadola with 83 rec (17.6, 10 TD) and Jake Drwal with 77 rec (11.8, 9 TD). RB Zack Barket leads with 706 (4.9, 4 TD). Towson QB Grant Enders is avg 187 ypg (68%) with a 14-8 ratio and is they #2 rusher with 379 (4.6, 4 TD). WR Tom Ryan leads with 37 rec (14.5, 3 TD). However the Big story of the season is True Frosh RB Terrance West with 1242 yds (6.8) and leads the FCS in scoring with 27 rush TD’s. LY Lehigh went on the road an shocked Northern Iowa 14-7 before losing to CAA member Delaware 42-20.. The Hawks have the experience edge and are #3 in the FCS in ttl off (479 ypg) but that is against a weaker schedule. The Computer calls for Towson to win by their 3pt home edge but the tigers have faced the tougher schedule and we’ll call for Lehigh to be knocked out of the playoffs by a CAA teams for a 3rd straight time.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TOWSON 34 LEHIGH 28

James Madison at #2 North Dakota St
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
JAMES MADISON	211	85	17	1.8	-
NORTH DAKOTA ST	124	160	21	1.3	-

First meeting. The Bison make just their 2nd playoff but LY went 2-1 losing to eventual Champ Eastern Washington in OT 38-31 on the road. NDSU looked to be the team to beat this year at 9-0 including a 37-24 win over FBS Minnesota (336-292 yd edge, +2 TO) and a 27-19 win over the only playoff team they faced, MVFC co-champ Northern Iowa 27-19 (349-345 yd edge). Then they were shocked by Youngstown St losing 27-24 and being outgained 451-293. They won their ssn finale over WIU and claimed the MVFC Title, the #2 seed and the bye week that goes along with it. The Dukes on the other hand had to sweat out the selection had to sweat out the playoff selection with a 7-4 record to make their 10th playoffs. JMU lost to North Carolina 42-10 (outgained 461-211). They went 0-3 against playoff teams losing 25-24 to Maine (402-385 yd edge), 23-20 to ODU (outgained 362-342) and New Hampshire 28-10 (outgained 330-295) but all 3 of those gms were played without QB Justin Thorpe (out 5 gm inj). LW JMU had to come from behind to beat Eastern Kentucky 20-17 with a last second FG despite a 393-213 yd and a 24-8 FD edge. The Bison are led by QB Brock Jensen with 181 ypg (69.8%) with a 11-2 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 77 yds (1.4, 5 TD). They have a 2 headed backfield led by Sam Ojuri with 781 yds (5.9, 8 TD) and DJ McNorton with 716 (4.9, 11TD). Their top 2 receivers have over half the teams rec’s led by Warren Holloway with 55 (13.6, 6 TD) and Ryan Smith with 40 (11.8). While JMU QB Justin Thorpe played in just 7 gms this ssn, he is still the #3 rusher with 390 (3.9) and is avg 97 ypg passing (61%) with a 4-2 ratio. Their run game is led by RB’s Dae’Quan Scott with 1,241 (5.6, 12 TD) and Jordan Anderson with 834 (5.2, 9 TD). Two receivers have combined for over half of the tm’s rec’s in Brian Barlow with 29 (9.7, 1 TD) and Kerby Long with 28 (13.4, 2 TD). LY NDSU came out of the opening round and upset #4 seed Montana St, JMU has a chance to do that here as the computer calls for a close game, but with the YSU loss still in their memory we will look for NDSU to pull out a close one at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH DAKOTA ST 24 JAMES MADISON 17

Norfolk St at Old Dominion
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
GRAMBLING	134	190	22	3.0	-
ALABAMA A&M	106	245	17	1.7	-

This will be the teams 4th meeting in the SWAC Championship Game. The Tigers have won all 3 previous by an avg 30-10 incl 45-6 in the most recent meeting in 2005. Grambling St is 16-5 all-time vs Alabama A&M but A&M won earlier TY 20-14. The Bulldogs scored with 49 seconds left to complete the comeback after trailing 14-0 in the 3Q. The Tigers had a 419-316 but were -5 TO’s in that game. Look for the Tigers to take the rubber Match and 23rd SWAC Championship
PHIL’S FORECAST: GRAMBLING 23 ALABAMA A&M 17

FBS vs FCS Forecasts for Every Game Week One!!!

Phil Steele — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:04:34 +0000

MURRAY ST AT LOUISVILLE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MURRAY ST	95	233	21	1.1	-
LOUISVILLE	251	273	1	2.6	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Louisville is 11-6 vs Murray St winning the last 3 meetings including their last in 2007, 73-10. Louisville is 7-0 vs FCS teams but LY only got by Eastern Kentucky 23-13, Murray St is 0-15 vs FBS teams since 1998 losing by a avg 50-10 but have never been held scoreless in that time. The Cardinals are in the 2nd year under HC Charlie Strong and return just 10 starters and must replace their top 2 QB’s, their top RB and their top 2 receivers. Murray St is led by 2nd year HC Chris Hatcher who led the Racers to their first winning season since 2004. They return 17 starters including QB Casey Brockman (2442 pass yds) and their top 3 rushers. Louisville just made a bowl last year at 6-6 and should give their full attention to in-state MSU. However, the Racers have the talent to make this game interesting.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 44 MURRAY ST 20

SOUTH CAROLINA ST AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SOUTH CAROLINA ST	90	123	19	2.5	-
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	136	288	30	3.0	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
CMU is 10-1 vs FCS foes since 1998 with a shutout in each of the last 2 years including beating MEAC member Hampton 33-0 last year. SCSU has played a total of 6 FBS opponents the last 4 years being shutout twice and losing by an avg 37-5. Last year they lost 41-10 to Geogia Tech but were only outgained 384-272. The Chippewas are off their first losing season since 2004. They return 14 starters and are in the 2nd year under HC Dan Enos. With a game at Kentucky on deck look for CMU to not look past SCSU especially since a 44-14 loss to North Dakota St in 2007 is still in recent memory. SCSU returns just 11 starters and has a big MEAC game on deck vs Bethune-Cookman and may be looking to get out of this game as healthy as possible.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 SOUTH CAROLINA ST 14

VILLANOVA AT TEMPLE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
VILLANOVA	166	115	25	2.9	-
TEMPLE	154	300	30	1.5	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
This is the Third year of the Mayor’s Cup game and the teams have split those games with Villanova winning 27-24 in ‘09 and Temple winning 31-24 last year. Temple had a 456-357 yd edge in ‘09 and blew a 10 pt 4Q lead as they were -4 TO’s including a last minute int that allowed Villanova to kick the GW FG as time expired. LY Temple only had a 322-311 yd edge over the reigning FCS Champion. The Owls scored a FG with :03 left to take a 1 pt lead and then returned a missed pitch on Villanova’s KO return for a TD for a 7 pt win. Temple is just 3-3 vs FCS foes (1-2 vs Nova) since 1998. Villanova is 5-8 vs FBS but just 1-5 since ‘05. This will be the Owl’s new HC Steve Addazio’s first game and Temple returns 12 starters including their QB, their top 5 rushers and 7 of their top 8 receivers. Villanova is in a rebuilding year returning just 9 starters and lose their QB, and top 4 rushers including their all-purpose star Matt Szczur. The Owls will be looking to make an impressive start for their HC and look to have the experience edge but this is a local rivalry game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEMPLE 30 VILLANOVA 23

NEW HAMPSHIRE AT TOLEDO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NEW HAMPSHIRE	96	160	25	2.2	-
TOLEDO	159	300	24	3.9	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Toledo leads the all-time series 3-0 but they last met in 1949. While the Rockets are 8-0 vs FCS teams since 1999 they have not faced one since 2007, and in that game just got by Liberty 35-34 despite a 493-282 yd edge as they were -2 TO’s. New Hampshire is 7-3 vs FBS teams since 1998 and last year’s 38-16 loss at Pitt broke a streak of 5 straight wins over FBS opponents including beating MAC Foe Ball St 23-16 in 2009.The Rockets are in their 3rd year under HC Tim Beckman and return 18 starters including 2 experienced QB’s their top 6 rushers and top 7 receivers. New Hampshire is under 13 yr HC Sean McDonnell but returns just 10 starters. While NH has reloaded several times under McDonnell this year they lose their top QB, 3 of their top 5 rushers and 2 of their top 3 receivers. Toledo does have a big game vs Ohio State on deck and has lost 5 straight season openers and 4 of 5 home openers but their last win was opening win was over FCS opp Western Illinois in ‘05. NH is 5-1 in season openers including upsets of Northwestern (‘06) and Army (‘08).
PHIL’S FORECAST: TOLEDO 38 NEW HAMPSHIRE 24

FORDHAM AT CONNECTICUT
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
FORDHAM	53	145	7	2.3	-
CONNECTICUT	262	310	43	1.0	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Fordham leads the series 1-0 but that meeting was in 1915. Fordam was a Major college until dropping football in 1954 (last meeting vs FBS tm). The Rams were full members of their non-scholarship Patriot League from 1990-2009 but in 2010 became a associate member as they began giving scholarships so they could play FBS teams (non-scholarship tms do not count for bowl eligibility). The Huskies are 8-1 vs FCS opponents since moving up to the FBS in 2001. They have won 8 straight by an avg 41 ppg including the last 7 by 32+ pts each. While the Huskies clearly did not look past FCS oppenents under HC Randy Edsell who guided Connecticut in their transition from the FCS to the FBS this will be the first game for new HC Paul Pasqualoni, who was 1-0 vs FCS in his 14Y as HC at Syracuse. LY Fordam largest road crowd was 10,891 while Connecticut’s smallest home crowd was 37,359 so their may be an added awe factor here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CONNECTICUT 52 FORDHAM 7

WESTERN CAROLINA AT GEORGIA TECH
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WESTERN CAROLINA	48	155	9	2.1	-
GEORGIA TECH	427	200	43	2.7	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
GT is 4-0 all-time vs WCU including a 45-26 win in their last meeting in 1994. GT is 8-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 including a 41-10 win over South Carolina St LY. WCU has lost 15 straight vs FBS opponents since 1998 including 6 shutouts and have scored over 10 pts just twice in that period. WCU will have the whole of Fall camp to prepare for the option that 2 of their first 3 oppenents will run (GT & GSU) and held a playoff bound Georgia Southern team to just 28 pts last year. Both teams are under 4th year HC’s and are coming off losing seasons. GT returns just 12 starters and must replace their top 2 rushers including QB Joshua Nesbitt. WCU returns 15 starters including all their top skill players on offense but have averaged under 18 ppg the last 3 seasons. After an early upset loss to Kansas last year, GT will not likely look past anyone including the Catamounts.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 49 WESTERN CAROLINA 7

NC CENTRAL AT RUTGERS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NC CENTRAL	-6	113	1	3.0	-
RUTGERS	256	318	45	1.8	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Rutgers is 9-2 since 1998 vs FCS teams and since a 35-24 loss to New Hampshire in ‘04 have won 7 straight by an avg of 44-3 including 4 shutouts. NCCU which is in just their 5th year at the FCS level is 0-2 vs FBS teams since losing 50-14 to WKU in ‘07 and 49-14 to Duke in ‘09. NCCU joins the MEAC this year and Rutgers is 7-0 vs the MEAC including a 31-0 win over Norfolk St last year. Both teams return 14 starters but NCCU is under 1st year HC Henry Frazier while Rutgers HC Greg Schiano returns for his 11th season. Look for Rutgers to show little mercy here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 45 NC CENTRAL 0

MONTANA ST AT UTAH
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MONTANA ST	57	243	16	1.9	-
UTAH	234	318	40	2.1	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Utah leads the series 9-0 but their last game was a 30-12 win in 1982. Utah has played just 2 FCS teams since ‘06 (2-0) including a 37-21 win over Big Sky Member Weber St in ‘08. Montana St is 1-13 vs FBS teams since 1998 but upset Colorado 19-10 in ‘06 and only lost 23-22 to Washington St last year despite a 407-316 yd edge. Utah does have their PAC-12 opener on deck vs conf power USC but should not look past last year’s Big Sky Co-Champ MSU that is coming off their 9th straight winning season. Both teams return just 12 starters but MSU does return co-BSC OPOY QB DeNarius McGhee who threw for 3,163 yds with a 23-6 ratio.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 38 MONTANA ST 17

UC DAVIS AT ARIZONA ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
UC DAVIS	-17	160	7	1.0	-
ARIZONA ST	237	310	38	3.0	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
ASU won the only previous meeting 21-13 in 1940. The Sun Devils are 7-0 vs FCS teams since 2002 including last year when they beat Portland St 54-9 and Northern Arizona 41-20. UC Davis is 2-7 since 1997 vs FBS foes including beating PAC-10 member Stanford 20-17 in ‘05 and San Jose St 14-13 last year. However, they also lost 52-3 to California last year. ASU finished 6-6 last year but were not bowl eligible as 2 of their wins were over FCS foes. ASU returns 15 starters but lose their QB and top WR. UC Davis returns 16 starters including QB Randy Wright but lose their top 2 receivers. The Sun Devils do have a Friday Night game vs Missouri on deck but can not afford to look past anyone as they try for their first winning season in 4 years.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA ST 38 UC DAVIS 7

YOUNGSTOWN ST AT MICHIGAN ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
YOUNGSTOWN ST	123	155	19	1.1	-
MICHIGAN ST	242	365	47	2.1	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. MSU has faced just 2 FCS opponents since 1950, winning 44-3 over Montana St in ‘09 and 45-7 over Northern Colorado last year. YSU is 3-14 vs FBS oppenents since 1997 but have lost 9 straight since beating Kent St 26-20 in 2000. Last year they lost 44-14 to Big Ten member Penn St being outgained 371-264. However those 14 ptS were more than they combined to score in the previous 5 FBS games (shut-out twice). MSU only has a home game vs FAU on deck so should not look past the Penguins. While YSU does return more starters (14) , MSU returns a solid core of 12 including QB Cousins and their top 6 rushers. MSU avg 236 ypg rushing (4.5 ypc) last year while YSU allowed 215 ypg (4.7).
PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 52 YOUNGSTOWN ST 14

TENNESSEE TECH AT IOWA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TENNESSEE TECH	75	125	10	1.8	-
IOWA	290	240	39	2.8	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First Meeting. Iowa has won 10 straight home openers by an avg 40-6. Iowa is 6-0 vs FCS teams since 1997, winning 5 by 24+ pts but just escaped Northern Iowa 17-16 in 2009. They did beat OVC member Eastern Illinois 37-7 last year with a 435-157 yard edge. TTU is 0-19 vs FBS teams since 1997 losing 18 by 24+ pts (allowing 35+ in each) with a 21-7 loss to USF in ‘04 being their only close game. Last year TTU was outgained 519-187 vs Arkansas losing 44-3 and 452-150 by TCU losing 62-7. While TTU returns 18 starters, Iowa returns just 9 but that may mean the starters will play longer to gain experience. Iowa does have rival Iowa St on deck but after their close call in 2009 will not get caught looking past TTU.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 42 TENNESSEE TECH 7

INDIANA ST AT PENN ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
INDIANA ST	58	115	10	1.5	-
PENN ST	287	295	44	2.9	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First Meeting. Penn St has won 9 straight home openers by an avg 28 ppg. Penn St is 4-0 vs FCS teams since 2006 with the closest game being a 44-14 win over MVFC members Youngstown St. Indiana St had just 2 wins from 2005-2009 but went 6-5 LY and only trailed Cincinnati 12-7 at HT before losing 40-7 (only outgained 393-254). The Sycamores are 1-19 vs FBS foes since 1998 with that 1 win coming vs Eastern Michigan 21-14 in 2001. ISU returns 18 starters but Penn St returns 14 of their own. The Lions do have a home game vs Alabama on deck but did not look past YSU last year with a road game vs Alabama on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 45 INDIANA ST 7

APPALACHIAN ST AT VIRGINIA TECH
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
APPALACHIAN ST	79	103	12	2.5	-
VIRGINIA TECH	272	263	38	2.2	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
VT is 3-0 vs Appalachian St but the last game was in 1982 (34-0). While VT is 6-1 vs FCS opponents since 1999 including 4 shut outs but lost 21-16 to James Madison last year coming off a 33-30 loss to Boise St. ASU is 3-15 vs FBS foes but is of course known for their 34-32 defeat of #5 Michigan in 2007. While they came close vs East Carolina (29-24) in 2009 they lost to LSU 41-13 in ‘08 and Florida 48-10 last year being outgained by an avg 503-257 in those two games. VT returns 12 starters and must replace QB Tyrod Taylor and will likely looking to get everything up to speed on both sides of the ball. They only have a road trip to East Carolina on deck and after last years loss to JMU will give the extra reasons to give the Mountaineers their full attention. ASU also returns just 12 starters but are led by AA QB DeAndre Presley, who had 2,631 yds passing and 1,039 yds rushing last year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 42 APPALACHIAN ST 10

SOUTH DAKOTA AT AIR FORCE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SOUTH DAKOTA	118	130	13	1.2	-
AIR FORCE	322	240	36	2.4	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First Meeting. Air Force is 10-0 vs FCS teams since 1997 by an avg 45-7 including 3 shutouts. Last year they beat Northwestern St 65-21 with a 616-311 yd edge. South Dakota has played just 2 FBS teams since moving up to the FBS. Both were last year when they lost to UCF 38-7 but then shocked Minnesota 41-38 the following week only being outgained 462-444. AF does have TCU on deck but has shown a tendency to go full out in these games as they have scored 41+ pts in 7 of their last 8 vs FCS foes. South Dakota does return 18 starters this year but Air Force’s 14 returning starters are their most in over 7 years. The Coyotes face 2 FBS foes and reigning FCS Champion Eastern Washington in 3 of their first 4 games and must pace themselves for the Great West conferences’ final season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: AIR FORCE 45 SOUTH DAKOTA 10

DELAWARE AT NAVY
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
DELAWARE	173	180	23	1.9	-
NAVY	302	140	23	1.5	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Navy is just 8-7 vs Delaware including just 2-2 vs the Blue Hens since 2003. Navy won the last meeting in 2009 35-18 getting revenge for a 59-52 loss in 2007 despite being out gained 370-320. Navy is 10-2 vs FCS teams since 1997 (both losses to UD) but last year just got by Georgia Southern 13-7 with just a 193-109 yd edge. UD is 2-3 vs FBS teams since 2003 with their last gm vs Navy. Both teams return just 10 starters and will have new QB’s running the offense. UD is coming off a 20-19 loss in the FCS Championship game, while Navy is off a 35-14 bowl loss. The Midshipmen only have a road trip to Western Kentucky on deck, so should be focused here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NAVY 31 DELWARE 21

CHATTANOOGA AT NEBRASKA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CHATTANOOGA	22	183	11	2.7	-
NEBRASKA	234	273	43	2.2	•
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Nebraska has not lost a home opener since 1985. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 vs FCS teams since 2002 but only beat South Dakota St 17-3 last year. Chattanooga is 0-10 vs FBS foes since 1999 losing by an avg 47-16. Last year the Mocs lost to Arkansas 62-24 being outgained 628-334. Nebraska brings back 12 starters including QB Taylor Martinez, who threw for 1,631 and was the Cornhuskers #2 rusher (965, 6.0) with 12 rushing TD’s. Chattanooga returns 13 starters led by former Tennessee transfer BJ Coleman, who threw for 2,996 with a 26-13 ratio. Nebraska has a home game vs feisty Fresno St on deck but after last year’s game vs an FCS foe was closer than expected look for them to give Chattanooga their full attention.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 45 CHATTANOOGA 10

JAMES MADISON AT NORTH CAROLINA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
JAMES MADISON	100	68	9	1.9	-
NORTH CAROLINA	151	253	23	2.7	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
North Carolina won the only previous meeting 37-14 in 2007, which was former HC Butch Davis’ first win at NC. NC is 7-0 vs FBS foes since 2004, but did lose to Furman in 1999. However, last year they just got by CAA member William & Mary 21-17 despite a 421-286 yard edge. James Madison is 2-8 vs Current FBS opponents since 1997 including last year’s stunning upset of ACC member Virginia tech 21-16. They also only lost to Maryland 38-35 in 2009. NC returns 13 starters but must replace their top QB and top 3 rushers and of course lost HC Butch Davis. James Madison also must replace their top QB and top 3 rushers but added Kansas St transfer QB Billy Cosh (PS#45) and return 17 starters along with 13th year HC Mickey Matthews. With all the turmoil surrounding the program NC needs an opening win here and with JMU’s win last year the new coaching staff should have little problem motivating the team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 23 JAMES MADISON 9

SE LOUISIANA AT TULANE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SE LOUISIANA	74	235	21	2.1	-
TULANE	226	340	48	1.8	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Tulane leads the all-time series 5-0 but the last 3 have been decided by a 8 points or less. Last year Tulane won 27-21 and were outgained 266-252 but never trailed and led by DD in the 4Q. Tulane is 8-0 vs FCS foes since 2001 but only 3 of those were by over 10 pts. SE Louisiana is 0-13 vs FBS foes since 2003 and for the 5the time in 6 years will be facing 2+ FBS in the same season. Last year besides their 6 pt loss to Tulane they also only lost to ULM 21-20. Tulane returns 14 starters led by QB Ryan Griffin, who threw for 2,371 last year. SE Louisiana returns just 8 starters and while their lose their starting QB, they add Mississippi transfer QB Nathan Stanley (PS#36). While Tulane is not known for overpowering in state FCS teams this year looks to be their chance to put up some numbers against a team facing a major rebuilding season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TULANE 44 SE LOUISIANA 20

SACRAMENTO ST AT OREGON ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SACRAMENTO ST	107	178	21	1.3	-
OREGON ST	139	313	35	2.6	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Oregon St won the only previous meeting 40-7 in 2003. The Beavers are 6-0 vs FCS opponents since 1999 winning the last 5 by and avg 42-10 including a 34-7 win over Big Sky member Portland St. Sacramento St is 0-10 vs FBS foes and besides a 23-20 loss to Colorado St in 2008 has lost each by 21+ pts including 8 by 33+ pts. Last year Stanford manhandled the Hornets 52-17 with a 529-157 yard edge. OSU returns 12 starters led by QB Ryan Katz, who threw for 2,401 but must replace a 1000 yd rusher. Sacramento St returns 14 starters led by QB Jeff Fleming, who threw for 2,044 along with top rusher Bryan Hilliard (883, 4.5). The Beavers have a big road game at Wisconsin on deck and after an easy FCS win last year may look past a much improved Hornets team that had 3 net close losses last year including losing to eventual FCS Champ Eastern Washington by just 4. While Sacramento St may not be up to the outright upset but look for them to keep it closer then expected.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON ST 38 SACRAMENTO ST 21

IDAHO ST AT WASHINGTON ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
IDAHO ST	24	155	14	2.2	-
WASHINGTON ST	141	315	35	3.1	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First Meeting. Washington St is 5-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 but just got by Big Sky Member, Montana St 23-22 last year and were outgained 407-316. Idaho St is 0-5 vs FBS foes since 1998 including losing to Arizona St and Oklahoma by a combined 114-3 in 2009 and being outgained by a combined 971-81 yards. WSU HC Paul Wulff is a former Big Sky HC, going 5-3 vs ISU. The Cougars return 15 starters including QB Jeff Tuel, who threw for 2,780 yds last year. ISU returns just 11 starters and must replace their top QB and rusher. The Bengals are under new HC Mike Kramer who brought in over 10 transfers in the hope of turning things around quickly. Still Washington St has just 5 combined wins the last 3 years and will not look past anyone.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON ST 41 IDAHO ST 10

LIBERTY AT NC STATE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
LIBERTY	43	230	20	2.5	-
NC STATE	192	330	42	1.9	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. NC State is 12-0 vs FCS foes since 1999, winning their last 3 by an avg 53-9 outgaining opp by at least 264 ypg in each. Liberty is 2-12 vs FBS foes including a 27-23 win over Ball St last year. NC State has a conference road game at Wake Forest but return just 13 starters, so should be looking to get the team on the same page as they must break in a new starting QB. Liberty also returns 13 starters but are led by the Big South OPOY QB Mike Brown, who threw for 2,956 and rushed for 854 yds. The Flames have the offense to keep them in the game but the Wolfpack returns 8 starters to a defenses that allows just 21.3 ppg last year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NC STATE 48 LIBERTY 20

MONTANA AT TENNESSEE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MONTANA	72	113	11	3.3	-
TENNESSEE	219	263	38	2.8	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Tennessee has faced just 1 FCS opponent since 1984 and that was last year when they beat UT-Martin 50-0. Montana is 4-5 vs FBS opponents but all 4 wins are over Idaho, the last in 2003. They lost their last 2 both vs BCS foes 47-14 to Oregon in 2005 and 41-7 to Iowa in 2006. Tennessee returns 13 starters and AREunder 2nd year HC Derek Dooley. The Grizzlies return 14 starters under 2nd year HC Robin Pflugrad. They are coming off a disappointing 7-4 season that saw their streak of 17 straight playoff appearances come to an end. While Tennessee made a bowl last year they had their 2nd losing season in 3 years and so will not take any game lightly especially vs historical FCS powerhouse Montana.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 45 MONTANA 10

WILLIAM & MARY AT VIRGINIA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WILLIAM & MARY	145	148	22	0.8	-
VIRGINIA	191	268	26	2.4	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Virginia leads the series 26-6-1 including 6-1 since 1998 but W&M won the last meeting in 2009, 26-14 with a 309-268 yd edge. Virginia is 6-1 vs FCS teams since 1997 including beating CAA member Richmond 34-13 last year (W&M beat UR 41-3 LY). William & Mary is 2-12 vs FBS opponents since 1998 but only lost to North Carolina 21-17 last year but were outgained 421-286. Virginia returns 18 starters and are in the 2nd year under former CAA HC Mike London. W&M returns 12 starters but get back former North Carolina transfer QB Michael Paulus (PS#6), who was lost early in the season last year to injury. Virginia will give W&M their full attention but this should be a close game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA 27 WILLIAM & MARY 23

TEXAS ST AT TEXAS TECH
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TEXAS ST	92	138	15	1.6	-
TEXAS TECH	279	348	49	2.3	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First Meeting. Texas Tech is 17-1 in home openers. TT is 9-0 vs FCS teams since 2001 winning by an avg 61-9 outgaining each by at least 210 yds per game. Lasy year they beat Weber St 64-21 with a 669-459 yd edge. Texas St is 1-11 vs FBS teams since 2000 with their 1 win coming vs ULM 27-7 in 2000. Last year they lost to Houston 68-28 but were only outgained 497-345. TT returns 14 starters and are in the 2nd year under former HC Tommy Tuberville. Texas St returns 12 starters but are in the 1st year under HC Dennis Franchione. TT should have little trouble getting up for an instate school that will be moving up to the WAC next year especially since both HC’s faced each other when both were in the SEC.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 49 TEXAS ST 14

MISSOURI ST AT ARKANSAS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MISSOURI ST	92	103	8	2.2	-
ARKANSAS	219	438	51	1.5	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Arkansas is 6-0 vs MSU including a 48-10 win in 2009. Arkansas is 8-0 vs FCS teams since 2000 winning by an avg 43-12 including a 44-3 win over Tenn Tech last year. Missouri St is 0-10 vs FBS teams since 2000 including a 48-24 loss to Kansas St last year but they wereonly outgained 496-447 in that loss. The Razorbacks return 13 starters and have to replace QB Ryan Mallett. Missouri St returns just 9 starters and also have to replace their QB. Arkansas only has New Mexico on deck and so should be looking to gain confidence for their new QB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 56 MISSOURI ST 7

AUSTIN PEAY AT CINCINNATI
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
AUSTIN PEAY	68	40	0	2.0	-
CINCINNATI	257	350	51	3.4	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Cincinnati is 4-0 vs Austin Peay winning by an avg 42-9 including a 42-10 win in their last meeting in 1993. Cincy is 7-0 vs FCS teams since 2003 including a 40-7 win over Indiana St last year. Austin Peay has faced just 2 FBS opponents since 2003 and both were last year as they lost to Middle Tennessee 56-33 and Wisconsin 70-3 giving up 600+ yds in each game. The Bearcats return 15 starters and are now in the 2nd year under HC Butch Jones. The Governors return 16 starters but were just 2-9 last year. Cincy does have a road game at Tennessee on deck but should be able to get their offense running on all cylinders.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 51 AUSTIN PEAY 0

RICHMOND AT DUKE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
RICHMOND	144	175	23	1.2	-
DUKE	196	340	37	3.2	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Duke is 9-3 vs Richmond but lost the last 2 meetings 24-16 in ‘09 and 13-0 in ‘06. Duke is 7-2 vs FCS teams including a 41-27 win over Elon last year. Richmond is just 2-9 vs FBS foes since 2000 including a 34-13 loss to Virginia last year. Duke returns 14 starters including QB Sean Renfree, who threw for 3,131 last year. Richmond returns 13 starters led by former USC transfer QB Aaron Corp (PS#9), who was lost after 5 starts last year. The Spiders must deal with the recent resignation of HC Latrell Scott. With that 2009 loss still fresh in their memories look for the Blue Devils to look for some revenge here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DUKE 37 RICHMOND 20

HOWARD AT EASTERN MICHIGAN
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
HOWARD	96	158	25	2.3	-
EASTERN MICHIGAN	185	253	44	4.0	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Eastern Michigan won their only prior meeting 38-15 in 2007. After not facing an FCS opponent since a 52-0 win over Indiana St in the 2008 opener, the Eagles have 2 this season. Howard is 0-4 vs FBS foes since 2003 losing by an avg 51-9 including a 45-7 loss to Rutgers in 2009. The Eagles return 13 starters including QB Alex Gillett who threw for 1,633 and rushed for a team best 766 yds. They are in the 3rd season under HC Ron English and need to show some improvement after going a combined 2-22 in his first 2 seasons. Howard returns 20 starters but have a new HC and are switching their offense. Eastern Michigan needs to start the season with 2 wins over FCS foes as they then must face Michigan and Penn St in back-to-back weeks.
PHIL’S FORECAST: EASTERN MICHIGAN 49 HOWARD 14

NORTHERN IOWA AT IOWA ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NORTHERN IOWA	175	103	19	1.5	-
IOWA ST	136	238	19	3.3	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Iowa St leads the series 19-4-3. Last year took revenge for a 2007, 24-13 loss to UNI as they won 27-0 thanks to being +5 TO’s as they were actually outgained 320-210. ISU is 10-1 vs FCS teams since 1999. UNI is 4-11 vs FBS teams since 1997 and only lost to #22 Iowa 17-16 in 2009. Iowa St is in the 3rd year under HC Paul Rhoads but return just 12 starters and must replace their QB, top 2 rushers and top 2 receivers. UNI is returns 18 starters the most here in a long, long time. Their last game was an upset loss at home to Lehigh in the playoffs and so they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. While ISU had rival Iowa on deck they will need to be prepared for a hard fought game as UNI has the talent to pull off the upset here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA ST 23 NORTHERN IOWA 20

MCNEESE ST AT KANSAS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MCNEESE ST	150	128	21	1.3	-
KANSAS	216	263	32	1.8	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Kansas is 10-1 vs FCS opponents but lost last year 6-3 to North Dakota St despite a 293-168 yd edge. McNeese St is 3-11 vs FBS teams since 2000 but lost last year to LSU 32-10. Kansas return 15 starters and are in the 2nd year under HC Turner Gill. McNeese St returns just 9 starters and must replace former Tulsa transfer QB Jacob Bower but bring in former North Texas QB Riley Dodge. Kansas can not afford a loss here and should be able to get past a talented but rebuilding Cowboys.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 34 MCNEESE ST 20

EASTERN KENTUCKY AT KANSAS ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
EASTERN KENTUCKY	118	110	17	1.0	-
KANSAS ST	237	285	36	2.4	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Kansas St has won 21 straight home openers. KSU is 10-0 vs FCS teams winning by an avg 42-13 including a 48-24 win over Missouri St last year. Eastern Kentucky is 0-16 vs FBS teams since 1998 but only lost to Indiana 19-13 in ‘09 and to Louisville 23-13 last year. KSU returns 13 starters but must replace their top QB, top RB and top WR. EKU returns 16 starters under 4th year HC Dean Hood. KSU has a bye on deck and should hold nothing back but EKU should be able to give them a good game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS ST 45 EASTERN KENTUCKY 17

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN AT UCF
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN	38	85	3	3.9	-
UCF	317	280	56	1.6	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. UCF is 14-0 vs FCS teams since 1997 including a 38-7 win over South Dakota last year. CSU is 0-8 vs FBS teams since 2002 including a 66-7 loss to Hawaii and a 49-21 loss to Kentucky last year. UCF returns just 10 starters this year but do return QB Jeff Godfrey and their top 7 rushers. Charleston Southern returns just 11 starters from a team that was just 3-8 last year. The Buccaneers offense returns just 4 starters and must replace their QB, their top 2 rushers and their top 7 receivers. UCF does have a home game vs Boston College on deck but UCF should have little trouble getting their new starters some experience.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UCF 45 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 3

EASTERN WASHINGTON AT WASHINGTON
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
EASTERN WASHINGTON	100	213	22	1.1	-
WASHINGTON	226	323	32	3.2	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Washington has not played a current FCS team since 1951. Eastern Washington is 1-10 vs current FBS teams since 2001 but has lost 10 straight including 49-24 to Nevada last year but were only outgained 553-432. Washington is in the 3rd year under HC Steve Sarkisian and returns 5 starters but must replace QB Jake Locker. Eastern Washington is coming off an FCS Championship season and return 14 starters including former SMU transfer QB Bo levi Mitchell, who threw for 3,496 yds. They do lose their top rusher Taiwan Jones who was a #4 DC but add in Washington transfer Demitrius Bronson (PS#69). Washington is a much improved team and after just making a bowl game at 6-6 last year will be prepared for the in-state reigning FCS Champion.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 34 EASTERN WASHINGTON 17

ELON AT WASHINGTON
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
ELON	63	268	22	1.1	-
VANDERBILT	258	243	31	2.4	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. Vanderbilt is 11-0 vs FCS teams since 1999 winning by an avg 40-11 including a 16-0 win over Richmond in 2008 and a 45-0 win over Western Carolina in 2009. Elon has faced just 3 FCS teams all since 2007 losing all 3 by an avg 35-16 including a 41-27 loss to Duke last year. Vandy returns 19 starters but were just 2-10 last year and are under a new HC in James Franklin. Elon return just 10 starters and is also under a new HC in Jason Swepson. Vandy does not look past anyone and will be working on establishing their new systems.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VANDERBILT 37 ELON 20

STONY BROOK AT UTEP
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
STONY BROOK	140	148	21	1.1	-
UTEP	121	228	24	3.6	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
First meeting. UTEP is 7-1 vs FCS teams since 2001 but faced just one since 2008 winning 31-10 over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last year. Stony Brook has faced just 1 FBS opponent losing 59-14 to USF last year. UTEP returns just 11 starters this year and while they return 9 starters on defense they did allow 184 ypg rushing last year. Stony Brook returns 15 starters including two RB’s who each had a 1000+ yds rushing and get back a 1,000 yd rusher from 2009 who missed last season. SB is our pick to win the Big South this year and could give UTEP a “Run” for their money.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTEP 24 STONY BROOK 21

WEBER ST AT WYOMING
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WEBER ST	161	215	22	2.3	-
WYOMING	184	245	28	1.9	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Wyoming leads the series 3-0 but only won 29-22 in 2009. Wyoming is 10-0 vs FCS opponents since 1997. However, they have only won their last 3 by 8 pts of less including a 28-20 win last year over Southern Utah. Weber St is 0-18 vs FBS teams since 1997 playing 2 in each of the last 3 years. Last year they lost to Boston College 38-20 and Texas Tech 64-21. Wyoming is in the 3rd year under HC Dave Christensen and returns 14 starters but must replace their QB and top 2 receivers. Weber St returns just 13 starters and must replace their QB, top 2 rushers and top 3 receivers. Wyoming only has Texas St on deck and after their close game in ‘09.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WYOMING 30 WEBER ST 20

CAL POLY AT SAN DIEGO ST
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CAL POLY	203	58	18	2.0	-
SAN DIEGO ST	188	368	41	2.5	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
San Diego St only leads the series 13-11 and Cal Poly won the last 2 meetings 29-27 in ‘08 and 16-14 in ‘06. San Diego St is 7-2 vs FCS teams since 2001 including a 47-0 win over Nicholls St last year. Cal Poly is 4-10 vs FBS teams since 1997 with last years 21 pt loss being the biggest margin since 2002. SDSU returns 13 starters including QB Ryan Lindley (3830 pass yds) and RB Ronnie Hillman (1532 rush yds). They bring in a new HC in Rocky Long. Cal Poly returns 14 starters and are in their 3rd season under HC Tim Walsh. With a long trip out east to Army on deck expect SDSU to five their full attention to in-state Cal Poly.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO ST 41 CAL POLY 17

NORTHERN ARIZONA AT ARIZONA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NORTHERN ARIZONA	65	158	13	2.0	-
ARIZONA	136	398	38	1.9	-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Arizona leads the series 10-1 (loss in 1932) including a 34-14 win in their last meeting in 2009. Arizona is 7-0 vs FCS foes since 2002 with 5 of those games vs NAU. Northern Arizona is 0-15 vs FBS foes since 1997 losing the last 6 by an avg 20 ppg but those were all vs BCS teams. Arizona returns just 10 starters but are led by QB Nick Foles, who threw for 3,191 yds last year. Northern Arizona returns just 9 starters and must replace QB Michael Herrick, who threw for 2,061 last year. Arizona does have a trip to Oklahoma St on deck but will need to get their new starters some experience against their in-state foe.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 35 NORTHERN ARIZONA 14

College Football Starts Tomorrow!!!

Brand New FCS Team Pages!!!

Phil Steele — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 16:07:33 +0000

For the last couple of years I have had team pages for all 120 FBS teams complete with notes, schedules, results, statistical leaders, game-by-game stats and start charts. With this being the first year of having a stand-alone FCS magazine I have also decided to do team pages on all 126 FCS schools complete with the same amount of info!

I can guarantee you that you will not find any other site on the internet today with as much dedicated to every single FCS school in one place and remember there are 38 matchups opening weekend involving FBS vs FCS teams.

Below is an example of what our William & Mary Page looks like.

Click Here To Get All 126 FCS Team Pages!

Help Support the FCS by purchasing Phil Steele’s 2011 FCS Preview!

If you’re an FCS fan I can promise you there is no other preview magazine like it on the market today with 240 pages dedicated to the FCS including one full page on every team! You can order it through our offices by calling us at 1-866-918-7711 or by going to PhilSteele.com and it is just $13.70 (S&H included). You will become an instant expert on EVERY FCS team and remember every year there are more and more matchups between FCS and FBS schools. So get a leg up on one of your favorite team’s possible FCS opponent this year by purchasing Phil Steele’s 2011 FCS Preview today!

The FCS continues to provide fans with quality football and with 96 games this season against FBS foes interest will continue to grow. TV contracts are also becoming bigger, which will continue to expand the viewing audience while more and more upsets seem to occur each season. The NFL draft also brings to light the quality of players that come from the FCS. It is time the Nation realizes that many of these quality FCS programs can compete day in and day out with many FBS conferences.

Since there will be a limited distribution of the magazine in book stores and newsstands the best way to get your hands on the 2011 FCS Preview is ordering online at the PhilSteele.com store or by purchasing thru our offices at 1-866-918-7711. Let’s make the FCS Preview a standard tradition much like what my National College Preview has become the last 17 years!

Only 8 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

The 2011 FCS Magazine is Here and Ready to Ship!

Phil Steele — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 15:32:56 +0000

Early this morning the FCS magazines were delivered to our offices and all of you who have Pre-Ordered your FCS magazine I can promise that your magazine will be shipped out of our offices today! For those of you who have not ordered my first stand only FCS Preview here’s a brief history of my FCS coverage over the years:

In 2007, I made the commitment to provide quality in-depth FCS information and I provided a ¼ page on each FCS team in my Pac-10 Regional. There was moderate interest and I increased the coverage to 1/2 page per team in 2008.

In 2009 I moved the coverage to my ACC & Big East Regional giving the FCS even more exposure. Last year I increased the coverage on each team to a FULL PAGE and the interest increased. This season I am very proud to produce a magazine that gives each and every school equal FCS coverage!

If you’re an FCS fan I can promise you there is no other preview like it on the market today with 240 pages dedicated to the FCS! You can order it through our offices by calling us at 1-866-918-7711 or by going to PhilSteele.com and it is just $13.70 (S&H included). You will become an instant expert on EVERY FCS team and remember every year there are more and more matchups between FCS and FBS schools. So get a leg up on one of your favorite team’s possible FCS opponent this year by purchasing the Phil Steele 2011 FCS Preview today!

I need your help:

If you’re an FCS coach, AD, conference coordinator, SID or FCS fan please help me promote each and every one of the126 FCS schools by purchasing my 2011 FCS preview and by putting the word out to your associates and known FCS fans. I want to put out a FCS Preview each year as college football is a labor of love for me but with printing costs, plus time and effort I have to see that there is a significant demand out there. If you have a twitter or facebook account or a blog spread the word to anyone that you know is a FCS fan. Last year we sold just under 1,000 copies of the FCS magazine that was located in one of our regional magazines but this year with it being a stand-alone magazine I want to sell many more copies. Since there will be a limited distribution of the magazine in book stores and newsstands the best way to get your hands on the 2011 FCS Preview is ordering online at the PhilSteele.com store or by purchasing thru our offices at 1-866-918-7711. Let’s make the FCS Preview a standard tradition much like what my National College Preview has become the last 17 years!

Pro Magazine Update:

With free agency wrapping up and all of the teams now in training camp, we will be sending my 2011 NFL Preview to the press this Friday. I promise you it will be the most up-to-date Preview magazine on the market today that includes all the trades and free agency moves. The shipment of Pro magazines should be in my offices by August 16th and it will be hitting the newsstands by August 30th. If you have a fantasy draft coming up in the end of August your best bet to get your hands on the NFL Magazine is to order online at the PhilSteele.com store or by calling our offices at 1-866-918-7711. Remember this year we are expanding the Fantasy portion of the magazine and are bringing in a Fantasy football writer from a popular Emmy-Award winning web based show to author that section! The cost of the NFL Magazine is just $12.70 (includes S&H).

31 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

FCS Magazine and Top 40 Countdown!

Phil Steele — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 17:24:14 +0000

In 2007 I made the commitment to provide quality in-depth FCS information and I provided a ¼ page on each FCS team in my Pac-10 Regional. There was moderate interest and I increased the coverage to 1/2 page per team in 2008. In 2009 I moved the coverage to my ACC & Big East Regional giving the FCS even more exposure. Last year I increased the coverage on each team to a FULL PAGE and the interest increased. This season I am very proud to produce a magazine that gives each and every school equal FCS coverage! I am counting on you the FCS fans, alumni, school leaders and athletic departments to help spread the word and make this magazine a success allowing me to continue publishing it.

As you probably know I spend 7 days a week and 365 days a year working on nothing but football. It has made my FBS Magazine the “Most Accurate Preseason Magazine The Last 13 Years” and that same type of hard work and dedication goes into this FCS Preview as well as my NFL Magazine.

This year I am also pleased to have The Sports Network provide a special featured section with FCS articles and information. We just sent the final pages off to press and today we will begin our FCS Top 40 Countdown giving you a sneak peak of what the magazine pages look like and remember those pages will only be available to download for 24 hours!

If you’re an FCS fan I can promise you there is no other preview like it on the market today with 240 pages dedicated to the FCS! You can order it through our offices by calling us at 1-866-918-7711 or by going to PhilSteele.com and it is just $8.95 (S&H not included). You will become an instant expert on EVERY FCS team and remember every year there are more and more matchups between FCS and FBS schools. So get a leg up on one of your favorite team’s possible FCS opponent this year by purchasing the Phil Steele 2011 FCS Preview today!

Below is an example of what one of our pages look like.

Download Bethune-Cookman’s Page.PDF

2011 FCS Only Preview 240 Pages!!!
$8.95
Call 1-866-918-7711

Only 46 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

FCS Semi-Final Forecasts

Phil Steele — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 17:47:56 +0000

Reminder: Join Phil Steele’s 2010 Bowl Confidence Contest

Pick the Winners of all 35 Bowl Games and rank them in order of 1-35 with 35 being your most confident pick and 1 being your least confident pick.

FREE to ENTER with Cash Prizes!!!

1st Place: $250 and a complete set of 2011 Phil Steele Preview Magazines

2nd Place: $100 and a complete set of 2011 Phil Steele Preview Magazines

3rd Place: $50 and a complete set of 2011 Phil Steele Preview Magazines

One Picksheet Per Person!

Deadline: All picks must be fully completed by December 18th at 2:00 PM EST

Click here to JOIN for FREE!

FCS PLAYOFFS SEMI-FINALS:
VILLANOVA at
#5 EASTERN WASHINGTON

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

VILLANOVA

193

220

EASTERN WASHINGTON

112

275

This is the first meeting between these two teams. Villanova is the defending FCS Champion and since the return of their all-purp star Matt Szczur have again been acting like it. Szczur had 3 rushing, 1 passing & 1 receiving TD vs Appalachian St. The Wildcats led #1 seed App St 28-10 at half and never led by less then 11 but were outgained 461-449. Eastern Washington led North Dakota St 14-0 in the 1Q and RB Taiwan Jones had 203 of his career high 230 yds in the 1H but suffered a fracture in his foot in the 2H. EW allowed a pick-6 in the 3Q that allowed NDSU to tie it at 24 and fell behind 31-24 in the 4Q. EW need a TD with :23 left to force OT. They scored a TD on their first play and recoverd a NDSU fumble in the EZ for the win. EW is 7-0 on their new Red turf this year. However they will be without RB Jones who is 2nd in the FCS with 1,742 (7.9, 14 TD) here and his 2 back-ups are true frosh Mario Brown (216, 3.5, 1 TD) and JR Darriell Beaumonte (216, 2.7, 2 TD). The Eagles are led by former SMU transfer QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who is avg 223 ypg (57.5%) with a 30-14 ratio. EW is only outgaining opp 402-387 on the season. Villanova in their last 3 games have defeated #1 Delaware, #3 Stephen F. Austin and #1 App St. QB Chris Whitney is avg 165 ypg (66%) with a 22-5 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 584 (3.7, 11 TD). They are led by RB’s Aaron Ball (776, 4.9, 5 TD) and Angelo Babbaro (486, 4.9, 5 TD). While WR Szczur has 332 (6.1, 3 TD) in just 7 games. They are holding opp to just 318 ypg. Without RB Jones the Eagles will need some red turf magic to win here and I’ll call for Villanova with playmaker Szczur to return to the Championship game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VILLANOVA 35 EASTERN WASHINGTON 24

FCS PLAYOFFS SEMI-FINALS: GEORGIA SOUTHERN at #3 DELAWARE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s
GEORGIA SOUTHERN	211	80	18	2
DELAWARE	129	240	27	2
The series is tied 2-2 and 1-1 in playoff games, while the home team has won the last 2, incl their last meeting in ‘02, when Delaware won here 22-19. Georgia Southern won the last playoff meeting in the 2000 Semi-finals 27-18. GSU has won 6 straight games including 2 straight playoff games on the road. However, LW vs Wofford they were out FD’d 19-14 and outgained 343-246 but scored 2 TD’s in the 1Q off Wofford TO’s and led 17-0 in the 2Q before needing to hold on 23-20. Meanwhile Delaware’s, defense shutdown New Hampshire allowing them over 20 yds on just 3 of their 13 drives. UD had a 23-15 FD & 383-237 yd edge and had a 5:36 drive to the NH 12 to run down the clock before turning it over on downs with :06 left. GSU is led by former Georgia Tech transfer QB Jaybo Shaw who is avg just 84 ypg (52%) with a 5-4 ratio but is the #2 rusher with 504 (2.6, 16 TD). They have 6 players with 250+ yds rushled by RB Robert Brown with 955 (4.8, 6 TD) and as a team are avg 4.6 ypc. They are outgaining opp by a 349-285 ypg. The Blue Hens are led by former Penn St transfer QB Pat Devlin, who is avg 223 ypg (68%) with an outstanding 20-2 ratio along with 113 rush yds (1.7, 1 TD). UD has 3 players with 300+ rush yds led by RB Andrew Pierce with 1,327 (4.8, 13 TD). UD has outgained opp 407-275 ypg and are allowing just 99.8 ypg rushing (3.4) and 5 rush TD’s in 13 games. I will call for the Blue Hens to outscore the Eagles and return to the FCS Championship Game for the 2nd time in 4 years.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DELAWARE 24 GOERIGA SOUTHERN 20

Complete FCS Updates

Phil Steele — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 16:34:04 +0000

Today we look at the FCS preseason polls, introduce a great website that follows FCS and other small schools, and much more in our blog! Written by Josh Buchanan.

FCS Coaches Preseason Top 25

The Sports Network/Fathead.com FCS Top-25 College Football Poll

Team (No. 1 Votes)
1. Villanova (22)
2. Montana (2)
3. Appalachian State (4)
4. William & Mary
5. Southern Illinois
6. Richmond
7. Elon
8. Stephen F. Austin
9. New Hampshire
10. South Dakota State
11. McNeese State
12. South Carolina State
13. Northern Iowa
14. Eastern Washington
15. James Madison
16. Eastern Illinois
17. Jacksonville State
18. Weber State
19. Delaware
20. Liberty
21. Prairie View A&M
22. Colgate
23. Northern Arizona
24. Montana State
T25. Cal-Poly
T25. Holy Cross

Team (First-place votes)
1. Villanova Wildcats (104)
2. Montana Grizzlies (9)
3. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8)
4. William & Mary Tribe (3)
5. Southern Illinois Salukis (1)
6. Richmond Spiders (1)
7. Elon Phoenix
8. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
9. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
10. New Hampshire Wildcats
11. South Carolina State Bulldogs
12. McNeese State Cowboys
13. Eastern Washington Eagles
14. Northern Iowa Panthers
15. James Madison Dukes
16. Delaware Blue Hens
17. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
18. Eastern Illinois Panthers
19. Weber State Wildcats
20. Prairie View A&M Panthers
21. Liberty Flames
22. Colgate Raiders
23. Penn Quakers
24. Montana State Bobcats
25. Holy Cross Crusaders

PRESEASON TOP 25 POLL COMPARISON

UNDERRATED (BY COACHES AND MEDIA)

WOFFORD- Steele has them 11th but the coaches and media did not rank them. I firmly agree with Phil and believe that this team is a top 10-15 caliber team. They had a lot of injuries last year and return everyone back from injury and should be in line for the playoffs.

NORTHERN ARIZONA- The coaches have them 23rd while they are unranked by the media. Steele has them 9th and I tend to agree that they are a top 10-15 team with QB Michael Herrick back.

OVERRATED

RICHMOND- They are 6th in both polls but Steele has them 17th and I tend to agree with so many losses on offense. They should be solid on defense but alot rests on transfer QB Aaron Corp and while they should be a top 20 team I don’t see them in the top 6 like the coaches and media do.

HOLY CROSS- They are 25th in both the coaches and media polls while Steele did not rank them in his top 40. I tend to agree with the uncertainty at QB with the loss of Dominic Randolph.

FCS UPDATE

Since the release of our FCS Preview Magazine there have been a lot of developments around FCS. Here are the major updates over the last few weeks.

Grambling State Head Coach Rod Broadway recently stated that DE Christian Anthony is likely out for the 2010 season after suffering a heart attack earlier this month. Anthony is home and expected to return to the GSU campus soon.

Lehigh QB JB Clark fell to third string on the depth chart and has left the program. Clark had struggled with his decision making and consistency but could be a solid Division II passer.

Former Five Star QB Aaron Corp transferred from USC to Richmond in the spring and was named the starter this week after a heated battle for the starting job.

Eastern Illinois RB Mon Williams, a former Florida transfer and 2009 second team All-OVC selection, will miss 1-2 games with a slightly torn PCL he suffered in fall camp.

EIU also added former Toledo RB Jake Walker who has enrolled into school and will be a redshirt sophomore this year. He was third on the Toledo depth chart prior to making the transfer and will provide much needed help with the injury to Williams and the loss of Chevon Walker who was dismissed from the team earlier this summer.

Southeastern Louisiana adds three transfers in OL R.J. Brown, WR Ron Walker, and DB Jerome Wright. Brown did not play in 2009 after redshirting at Southern Miss. Walker played his freshman season at Northern Illinois before the transfer after playing one game for NIU in 2009. Wright is a Miss. Gulf Coast CC transfer.

FINAL PRESEASON AWARDS

I have released my final updated preseason awards.

Here are my positional ratings

Here are my conference awards

Here are my All-America awards

TOP 25 FCS PRO PROSPECTS

Rank	Pos	First Name	Last Name	School	Ht	Wt	40 Time	Rd Proj
1	OG	Ben	Ijalana	Villanova	6036	319	5.36/5.37	3rd-4th
2	QB	Pat	Devlin	Delaware	6032	223	4.80/4.90	4th-5th
3	CB	Korey	Lindsey-Woods	Southern Illinois	5104	183	4.47/4.53	4th-5th
4	DT	Cedric	Thornton	Southern Arkansas	6033	293	5.26/5.30	5th
5	FS	Mark	LeGree	Appalachian State	5116	200	4.49/4.55	5th-6th
6	WR	Matt	Szczur	Villanova	5107	203	4.45/4.50	6th
7	OG	Will	Rackley	Lehigh	6033	306	5.20/5.25	6th-7th
8	WR	Cecil	Shorts III	Mount Union	5117	188	4.50/4.55	6th-7th
9	OG	David	Arkin	Missouri State	6045	302	5.10/5.20	6th-7th
10	CB	Cortez	Allen	The Citadel	6012	192	4.45/4.46	6th-7th
11	C	Brandon	Fusco	Slippery Rock	6042	301	5.25/5.30	7th-PFA
12	WR	Edmund	Gates	Abilene Christian	5117	190	4.42/4.49	7th-PFA
13	DT	Martin	Parker	Richmond	6017	288	5.07/5.09	7th-PFA
14	DT	Kenrick	Ellis	Hampton	6047	338	5.05/5.15	7th-PFA
15	WR	Stephen	Burton	West Texas A&M	6013	212	4.48/4.54	7th-PFA
16	WR	Tysson	Poots	Southern Utah	6016	222	4.60/4.65	PFA
17	OG	Kevin	Hughes	Southeastern Louisiana	6035	297	5.10/5.15	PFA
18	SS	Ron	Parker	Newberry	6000	190	4.53/4.59	PFA
19	OG	Trevis	Turner	Abilene Christian	6065	338	5.30/5.35	PFA
20	RB	Mon	Williams	Eastern Illinois	6013	215	4.55/4.60	PFA
21	OLB	D.J.	Smith	Appalachian State	5102	232	4.65/4.70	PFA
22	OLB	Julius	Wilkerson	South Carolina State	6023	222	4.65/4.70	PFA
23	QB	Chris	Dieker	Southern Illinois	6050	228	4.81/4.84	PFA
24	OLB	Alex	Cook	Fort Valley State	6023	221	4.55/4.58	PFA
25	WR	Dominique	Johnson	Cal Poly	6031	229	4.65/4.70	PFA

FCS AND OTHER SMALL SCHOOL SCOUTING COVERAGE

Looking for a website that covers FCS and other small school players in the NFL Draft? Look no further than www.jbscouting.com where I provide news, in depth reports, player rankings, and interviews. For premium content you can also visit www.buyscouting.com.

PLEA TO FCS FANS!

Last year we devoted 136 pages of FCS coverage in our ACC/Big East regional. We went to a half-page on each FCS school and this year we have expanded our coverage again. I am pleased to announce that we now have devoted a full page each on all of the 124 teams in the FCS and expanded our coverage to 175 pages strictly on the FCS! Every team has a full page with the last 6 years results, 2009 statistical leaders that are bold and un-bold showing which players are coming back, the last 6 years statistics, this year’s schedule and a complete position-by-position breakdown which we expanded this year (roughly 1000 to 1500 words on each team)!

The FCS coverage can be found in this year’s SEC/ACC/Big East regional magazine, which also has 4 pages on every SEC/ACC/Big East team and 328 pages overall (same as national FBS mag)! This regional is available on newsstands in the Southeast/Coastal/ Northeastern regions for just $8.95. Let’s face it you regularly pay more for a tip at a fancy restaurant but for just $8.95, you can become an expert on all the FCS teams! You can also purchase it through our offices for $13.70 (includes priority shipping) and we will ship them out to you within 24 hours unless ordered on the weekend. Call 1-866-918-7711 to get your copy today or visit the PhilSteele.com store!

Remember most FBS teams (85) are scheduling one FCS team a year now as there are 89 games this year involving FCS vs FBS teams! Arizona State, Virginia, Syracuse, Ball State & San Jose State each play two FCS teams in 2010 and there will be 15 FCS schools playing two games vs. FBS competition this year. Some are of the marquee matchups involve Florida taking on Appalachian St, North Carolina plays William & Mary and Temple takes on cross-town rival and defending FCS champ Villanova. If you want to become an expert and get a detailed breakdown on the FCS team your favorite school maybe playing this year there is no better way than purchasing our FCS regional mag!

Only 6 more Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

FCS Regional Magazine

Phil Steele — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 16:07:30 +0000

When comparing the amount of coverage the FCS gets in preview magazines it pales in comparison to the FBS. This year, Lindy’s has 4 pages in their national magazine devoted to the FCS. Athlon devoted none and The Sporting News who merged with Street and Smiths in ’08 had 18 pages devoted to 1AA or FCS teams last year.

Last year we devoted 136 pages of FCS coverage in our ACC/Big East regional. We went to a half-page on each FCS school and this year we have expanded our coverage again. I am pleased to announce that we now have devoted a full page each on all of the 124 teams in the FCS and expanded our coverage to 175 pages strictly on the FCS! Every team has a full page with the last 6 years results, 2009 statistical leaders that are bold and un-bold showing which players are coming back, the last 6 years statistics, this year’s schedule and a complete position-by-position breakdown which we expanded this year (roughly 1000 to 1500 words on each team)!

The FCS coverage can be found in this year’s SEC/ACC/Big East regional magazine, which also has 4 pages on every SEC/ACC/Big East team and 328 pages overall (same as national FBS mag)! This regional is available on newsstands in the Southeast/Coastal/ Northeastern regions for just $8.95. Let’s face it you regularly pay more for a tip at a fancy restaurant but for just $8.95, you can become an expert on all the FCS teams! You can also purchase it through our offices for $13.70 (includes priority shipping) and we will ship them out to you within 24 hours unless ordered on the weekend. Call 1-866-918-7711 to get your copy today!

Here are a couple of team pages from this year’s magazine for you to look at to get an idea of our detailed FCS coverage.

Click here to download the PDF version.

Remember most FBS teams (85) are scheduling one FCS team a year now as there are 89 games this year involving FCS vs FBS teams! Arizona State, Virginia, Syracuse, Ball State & San Jose State each play two FCS teams in 2010 and there will be 15 FCS schools playing two games vs. FBS competition this year. Some are of the marquee matchups involve Florida taking on Appalachian St, North Carolina plays William & Mary and Temple takes on cross-town rival and defending FCS champ Villanova. If you want to become an expert and get a detailed breakdown on the FCS team your favorite school maybe playing this year there is no better way than purchasing our FCS regional mag!

Also if you are FCS fan and would like to see our FCS regional magazine in your school bookstore please email brandon@philsteele.com and give us the contact # for the bookstore and we will try to get the magazines available there for you to purchase. Also if you have any school contacts that would like to promote our magazine whether it be on Facebook or any other school affiliated site, please take the time to promote your school with a magazine that is second to none when it comes to FCS information.

Also this year’s NFL magazine is 256 pages, which is considerably thicker than most NFL magazines out there. In this magazine you get six pages on every NFL team packed with stats, position write-ups, past game results and so much more. Here on the blog today I thought I would put the six pages of the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints. Click here to download the pdf version from this years magazine and this will show you all the information on each of the 32 teams that we produce. I will not go into great detail as to what is on the pages as you can see for yourself and I think you will agree that it is more information than any other NFL preview.

The Pro magazine should have hit newsstands across the country last week. However, with this being just the 2nd year I have put the magazine on the newsstands it will only have about half of the distribution that my College Magazine has. If you cannot find my Pro Football Preview anywhere near you, try ordering thru the PhilSteele.com store or call our offices at 1-866-918-7711. The cost is just $12.70 (includes priority shipping) and we will ship it out of our offices within 24 hours unless ordered on the weekend and in that case it will get shipped 1st thing on Monday.

Only 23 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

» FCS

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Tonight’s FCS Playoff Forecast

#5 Northern Iowa at #4 Montana

PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 24 NORTHERN IOWA 17

FCS Playoff Forecasts!

Stony Brook at #1 Sam Houston St

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 38 STONY BROOK 24

New Hampshire at Montana St

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW HAMPSHIRE 31 MONTANA ST 30

Wofford at #5 Northern Iowa

PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTHERN IOWA 30 WOFFORD 20

Central Arkansas at Montana

PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 31 CENTRAL ARKANSAS 24

Old Dominion at #3 Georgia Southern

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 37 OLD DOMINION 28

Maine at Appalachian St

PHIL’S FORECAST: MAINE 24 APPALACHIAN ST 23

Lehigh at Towson

PHIL’S FORECAST: TOWSON 34 LEHIGH 28

James Madison at #2 North Dakota St

PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH DAKOTA ST 24 JAMES MADISON 17

Norfolk St at Old Dominion

PHIL’S FORECAST: GRAMBLING 23 ALABAMA A&M 17

FBS vs FCS Forecasts for Every Game Week One!!!

MURRAY ST AT LOUISVILLE

PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 44 MURRAY ST 20

SOUTH CAROLINA ST AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN

PHIL’S FORECAST: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 SOUTH CAROLINA ST 14

VILLANOVA AT TEMPLE

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEMPLE 30 VILLANOVA 23

NEW HAMPSHIRE AT TOLEDO

PHIL’S FORECAST: TOLEDO 38 NEW HAMPSHIRE 24

FORDHAM AT CONNECTICUT

PHIL’S FORECAST: CONNECTICUT 52 FORDHAM 7

WESTERN CAROLINA AT GEORGIA TECH

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 49 WESTERN CAROLINA 7

NC CENTRAL AT RUTGERS

PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 45 NC CENTRAL 0

MONTANA ST AT UTAH

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 38 MONTANA ST 17

UC DAVIS AT ARIZONA ST

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA ST 38 UC DAVIS 7

YOUNGSTOWN ST AT MICHIGAN ST

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 52 YOUNGSTOWN ST 14

TENNESSEE TECH AT IOWA

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 42 TENNESSEE TECH 7

INDIANA ST AT PENN ST

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 45 INDIANA ST 7

APPALACHIAN ST AT VIRGINIA TECH

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 42 APPALACHIAN ST 10

SOUTH DAKOTA AT AIR FORCE

PHIL’S FORECAST: AIR FORCE 45 SOUTH DAKOTA 10

DELAWARE AT NAVY

PHIL’S FORECAST: NAVY 31 DELWARE 21

CHATTANOOGA AT NEBRASKA

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 45 CHATTANOOGA 10

JAMES MADISON AT NORTH CAROLINA

PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 23 JAMES MADISON 9

SE LOUISIANA AT TULANE

PHIL’S FORECAST: TULANE 44 SE LOUISIANA 20

SACRAMENTO ST AT OREGON ST

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON ST 38 SACRAMENTO ST 21

IDAHO ST AT WASHINGTON ST

PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON ST 41 IDAHO ST 10

LIBERTY AT NC STATE

PHIL’S FORECAST: NC STATE 48 LIBERTY 20

MONTANA AT TENNESSEE

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 45 MONTANA 10

WILLIAM & MARY AT VIRGINIA

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA 27 WILLIAM & MARY 23

TEXAS ST AT TEXAS TECH

2011 FCS Only Preview 240 Pages!!!
$8.95
Call 1-866-918-7711

FCS PLAYOFFS SEMI-FINALS:
VILLANOVA at
#5 EASTERN WASHINGTON

FCS PLAYOFFS SEMI-FINALS:
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at
#3 DELAWARE