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Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

February 5th, 2012 No comments
SUPER BOWL XLVI
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH
6:30 PM NBC

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NY GIANTS 108
328
26
1.6
#25
 98.8
NEW ENGLAND
111
258
28
1.7
#5
 99.7
GAME OVERVIEW

The more things change the more they stay the same for Super Bowl XLVI. Both teams return to the Super Bowl for the 1st time since 2007 looking to cement their status in NFL history. Tom Brady has been the starting QB for NE for 10 years and this will be his 5th Super Bowl. He’s tied Joe Montana’s 16 game postseason victory mark and with a win he’d be tied with Terry Bradshaw and Montana with 4 SB victories. Oddly enough Brady has flown under the radar in 2011 due to the success of other QB’s. He also broke Dan Marino’s yardage barrier this season and his 39 passing TD’s was the 2nd best of his career. This game would redeem Brady’s loss in SB XLII and firmly put him ahead of Peyton Manning in the best of this era conversation in Manning’s own house. Winning SB XLII took Eli Manning out of his brother’s shadow but with a win he’d be ahead of his ailing brother in Championships while giving himself and Tom Coughlin a legit shot at the Hall of Fame. Eli is the 1st NFL QB in history with five road playoff victories. He also has more playoff wins in Giants history than Phil Simms (6). This isn’t much of a surprise as under Coughlin the Giants are 43-27 on the road vs 38-30 at home inc playoffs. The Giants survived a 4 game consecutive losing streak and after missing the playoffs LY despite 10 wins there was serious concerns about Coughlin’s future. Much like 2007, the Giants 38-35 loss to an offensive juggernaut gave them a big confidence boost to fuel their playoff drive. They got healthier as the season went along and played their best ball of the season in the 4 games prior to SF. The Giants can be the 1st 9-7 team to win a Super Bowl. Without a doubt SB XLVI looks to be a great way to cap off what had been a very tenuous 2011 for players and owners over the CBA negotiations.

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AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

January 22nd, 2012 No comments
NFL PLAYOFFS: 5-3
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

1 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY, JANUARY 22nd
3:00 PM ET CBS		 7

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
BALTIMORE 130
215
19
1.8
#25
 97.6
NEW ENGLAND
106
335
35
1.2
#6
 98.6
Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

 

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Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

January 17th, 2012 No comments

COTTON BOWL Arkansas 29 Kansas St 16 Dome. KSU had a 19-13 FD edge but Ark a 345-260 yd edge. Joe Adams got his 4th PR TD on the yr and this one was 51 yds. AU had their first 11 win season since Lou Holtz’s 1977 team and Frank Broyles only undefeated season at Ark (1964). This was played in Jerry Jones’ (Ark alum) Dallas Cowboys Stadium. AU came in #6 in the BCS and KSU #8. AU’s first FD didn’t come until early 2Q but thanks to the PR TD they led 19-2 with KSU’s 2 pts coming on a blk’d xp ret’d for 2. It was 19-16 late 3Q when AU on 3&9 got a 9 yd td pass, 26-16 (3:57). KSU missed a 43 yd FG with 6:36 left. AU got a 30 yd FG with 3:30 left and KSU got to the AU37 but on 4&16 was int’d at the 25 and ret’d 61 yds.

SUN BOWL Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT GT led Utah 24-10 into the 4Q but UT got td’s with 6:50 and 1:32 left to tie. GT missed a 48 yd FG with :02 left sending it to OT. The first time in the 77 year history of the Sun Bowl it had gone to OT. GT had earlier missed two 40 yd FG’s and GT finished with a 448-337 yd edge and 19-14 FD edge losing their 7th straight bowl appearance while Utah moved to 7-1 in bowls under Whittingham. GT’s Preston Lyons who had just 39 carries on the year, rushed for 138 yds as David Sims was out with an injury and Orwin Smith was banged up. GT got a 74 yd IR TD in the 3Q to go up 24-10. UT converted on 4&3 for their first 4Q TD and opted to punt on 4&3 from their own 25 with 2:48 left but a 31 yd PR set them up at the GT24 and the TD came on a 4&14, 28 yd pass. After GT got a FG in OT, UT on 3&gl from the 8 got an 8 yd td run by White for the win. Read more…

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NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

January 14th, 2012 No comments

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

4 NFC SEMI-FINALS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH
4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS 108
335
30
1.7
#5
 97.7
SAN FRANCISCO
110
253
23
0.8
#1
 97.6
Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they’ve only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO’s has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO’s killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO’s. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

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GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

January 8th, 2012 No comments
NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: 2-0 YESTERDAY!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

NFC WILDCARD
SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH
1:00 PM ET FOX

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
ATLANTA 110
265
23
1.6
#19
 98.2
NY GIANTS
91
295
30
1.8
#23
 99.5
These teams haven’t met since mid-2009 w/the Giants winning 34-31 in OT. The Giants went 4-4 at home TY w/a +30 yd edge (+3 TO’s) for a 23.3-23.1 avg score. ATL went 4-4 on the road w/a +47 ypg differential (+1 TO’s) getting outscored 23-20. ATL went 2-3 vs the common foes of PHI, SEA, GB, and NO getting outgained by 28 ypg (+2 TO’s) and outscored 31-24 on avg. The Giants earned a 1-4 record w/a -46 ypg margin (-1 TO’s) and was outscored 31-25 on avg. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have the #8 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs a good Dallas offense, a tougher than advertised Washington team and a physical Jets defense. Atlanta has the #4 and #17 units (+9 TO’s) but has faced a weak Carolina def, a depleted Jacksonville team, was hammered by New Orleans and beat a Tampa Bay team that quit at Thanksgiving. We now have a dome team in cold weather vs a Giants team playing with confidence with a brutal DL and home crowd. I’m going with the more physical team at home here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

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Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

January 7th, 2012 1 comment
FCS National Championship
Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX
Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m.

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
NORTH DAKOTA ST 139
130
23
1.7
SAM HOUSTON ST
151
190
22
1.7
This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

 

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Week 17 NFL Forecasts!

January 1st, 2012 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-5 LW 128-67 66% TY

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 90
133
13
2.6
#25
PHILADELPHIA 158
233
29
1.4
#28
PHI won the 1st meeting 20-13 with a 422-287 yd edge holding WAS to just 5 FD’s and 75 yds in the 1H. Grossman was benched after a brutal 3Q’s with 143 yds (39%) and 4 int’s as the OL was in shambles. Starting with that first PHI game WAS dropped 6 straight avg just 56 ypg rushing and 13 ppg. Since then WAS has beaten SEA and the NYG on the road and while they did lose all 3 home games to the NYJ, NE and MIN they outgained and outFD’d all 3. The Eagles are trying to reach the .500 mark finishing the season with a 4th straight win and they done so in dominating fashion while outgaining those foes by an avg of 348-202. With both teams playing their best ball down the stretch I’ll call for the Eagles to get the win with some positive momentum going into the offseason.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 31 WASHINGTON 27

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Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

December 24th, 2011 No comments

HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
 91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
 …. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

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Week 14 Pro Selections

December 11th, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-4 LW 95-51 65% TY

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 66
175
9
2.0
#31
BALTIMORE 162
235
32
0.3
#17
Including playoffs the Colts are 7-0 vs the Ravens with a 24-9 avg score. IND finally switched to Orlovsky LW who hit for 89 yds (71%) when NE was up 31-3. NE had 24-8 FD and 345-106 yd edges before giving up 299 yds and 3 TD in the 4Q. IND also replaced DC Larry Coyer and for good reason as they are giving up 144 ypg rushing (4.1). Their #21 pass defense is allowing 243 ypg (72%) with a 21-5 ratio and their 109.3 QBR is worse than HOU’s 100.5 QBR LY. Prior to LW IND only had 1 game decided by 7 or less (TB on MNF). IND does have a bit of a situational edge as BAL has a road game vs SD on Thursday on deck. BAL did get a “needed win vs an inferior foe” and while they clearly have the talent edges here and I’ll call for them by 2 TD’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 31 INDIANAPOLIS 17 Read more…
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Week 13 Pro Selections

December 3rd, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-3 LW 86-47 65% TY

TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 108
205
26
1.9
#12
BUFFALO 125
258
23
2.1
#21
The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for only a second time in their last 7 games. Buffalo has now lost 4 straight after giving up a 77/12pl TD drive with 1:06 LW and now has the psychological disadvantage of having a losing record for the first time TY. Attrition can be blamed on them avg just 285 ypg & 12.5 ppg the L4W as they are #2 in the NFL with 13 players lost to the IR. The Titans continue to live and die by the running game and the 4 times this season when they’ve totalled 90 or more rush yards they’ve gone 4-0 incl Chris Johnson topping 130 yards 2 of the L3W having a ssn high 190 (8.3) vs Tampa. They now face a Bills squad that has allowed 124 ypg and 4.5 ypc rushing on the ssn. The Titans also will get a boost knowing they trail HOU by 2 games with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB and a meeting with them in the season finale. The Titans losses TY have come vs JAX, PIT, HOU, CIN and ATL who came into LW as the NFL’s #3, #2 #1 and #6 overall D while the Falcons were the leagues #2 rushD. Buffalo’s #24 D and #22 rush D come nowhere close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 BUFFALO 23

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