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Sunday Selections (Week 9)

November 4th, 2012 1 comment

Denver at Cincinnati

The Broncos come in after their 34-14 Sun Night rout of the Saints and are clearly in a letdown after a trip to face Brady in NE, Rivers in SD and hosting Brees and the Saints. The Broncos D however will be happy to not face a marquee QB. While Cincy sits at 3-4 and QB Dalton’s completing 64% of his passes after being 58% last year, his ratio is only 13-10 compared to 23-10 last year. What makes his numbers even worse is that he’s faced 6 teams whose avg pass D rank is #26 and vs #2 PIT he threw for 105 yds (50%) while DEN comes in #9. This year at Paul Brown Stadium the Bengals have allowed 69% comp and that was against Big Ben and 2 rookie QB’s (Weeden & Tannehill). Manning has shaken off the rust and in his L/4 games he’s thrown for 329 ypg (68%) with an 11-1 ratio. Look for the Broncos to continue to roll along here.
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Sunday Selections (Week 8)

October 28th, 2012 No comments

New England at St Louis

This is the 6th game in London and weather won’t be a factor with a dry week and a forecast of mid 40’s and sunny on game day. Huge edge to the Pats and Brady having just played here in 2009 as they beat TB 41-7 with a 414-240 yd edge. The offense has avg’d 470 ypg the L4W with their only loss self-inflicted as Brady threw 2 int’s after having just 1 in 185 att’s while also having several questionable time management issues. This week on the world stage, I expect New England’s offense to be the smooth running machine we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. The Rams under Fisher have looked competitive as they are only getting outgained by 9 ypg, but LW 8 of 18 FD’s (42%) and 186 of their 354 yds (53%) came in the 4Q. NE’s young D has been vulnerable vs the pass (#29 8.1 ypg, 6-7 ratio) but STL has a lack of talent at the receiver spot making them predictable has been held to 15 FD’s or fewer 4 times this year and they won’t keep up with a D that’s already let Rodgers and RG III to throw for a combined 76%.
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Sunday Selections (Week 4)

September 30th, 2012 No comments

New England at Buffalo – NE is off last week’s last second loss to BAL. In last year’s first game the Bills snapped a 15 game losing streak to the Patriots with Fitzpatrick passing for 369 yards (59%) with a 2-2 ratio. NE brought the hammer in the rematch with a 49-21 win in the season finale vs an injury depleted Bills team that was held to 122 yards in the 2H with 4 TO’s. BUF has snared a pair of wins vs a KC team with the #21 rush defense (4.7) along with a pass defense allowing an 8-1 ratio as well as a CLE team laden with rookies. They are expected to miss both RB’s Spiller (102 ypg, 9.3) and Jackson who is the offensive leader. While this is NE’s third road game in 4 weeks with DEN/Peyton on deck, I’ll go with the Patriots in a higher scoring game. PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 34 BUFFALO 16
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NFL Magazine Sneak Peek

June 21st, 2012 No comments

Three years ago, I decided to put out a full color NFL Preview Magazine and I could not have been more pleased with the results. I correctly predicted 7 out of 8 division winners which was more than any other preview magazine and I was the only magazine to predict the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South! Last year with the NFL Lockout, I waited to publish my magazine until August to have the latest and most accurate information and now in the last 3 years I have correctly predicted 16 out of 24 division winners!

This year the NFL and Fantasy Football Preview Magazine was sent off to the press earlier than ever before and today the truck showed up to our offices.

You should be able to find my NFL Magazine on the newsstands in early July but if you’re like me and want to have your hands on new information ASAP, try ordering thru the PhilSteele.com store or call our offices at 1-866-918-7711 and you will get it in your hands at least a full week before it officially hits the newsstands. The cost is just $13.25 (includes priority shipping) and we will ship it out of our offices within 24 hours unless ordered on the weekend and in that case it will get shipped 1st thing on Monday.

Unlike the College magazine where I write each of the 124 team previews myself, the NFL magazine was written by others including Erik Kuselias who wrote the Fantasy Section for the 2nd year in a row. I did do the forecast for each team using my 5 sets of Power ratings that I have for the NFL (I use 9 different sets for the colleges).

This year’s magazine is 288 pages which is considerably thicker than most NFL magazines out there. Here on the blog today I thought I would put the six pages of the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Below you can see how the pages look and click here to download the pdf version from this years magazine and this will show you all the information on each of the 32 teams that we produce. I will not go into great detail as to what is on the pages as you can see for yourself and I think you will agree that it is more information than any other NFL preview.

Download the PDF Version!

Updated Super Bowl XLVII Odds!!!

March 20th, 2012 No comments

A couple of weeks ago I gave you the odds to win the 2012 National Championship courtesy of Bovada. In today’s blog I will give you Bovada’s updated odds to win Super Bowl XLVII after yesterday’s news that Peyton Manning will be a Denver Bronco next year.

I must stress that while PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Also make sure you are checking out my updated 2012 Draft Preview with a Top 10 position by position outlook and the top performers at each position during each drill at the combine.

Don’t forget to check out our Spring Central section to get 2012 schedules, coaching changes, who’s back/who’s not and all the NFL Draft early entrants.

 

Bovada Odds to Win 2013 Super Bowl
XLVII @ Superdome-New Orleans, LA
Sunday, February 3, 2013

Rank Team Odds
1 Green Bay Packers 13/2
2 New England Patriots 15/2
3 New Orleans Saints 10/1
4 Denver Broncos 12/1
4 Houston Texans 12/1
6 San Francisco 49ers 14/1
7 Baltimore Ravens 15/1
7 Philadelphia Eagles 15/1
9 New York Giants 16/1
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 18/1
11 Dallas Cowboys 20/1
12 San Diego Chargers 22/1
13 Chicago Bears 25/1
13 Detroit Lions 25/1
15 Atlanta Falcons 28/1
16 New York Jets 30/1
17 Carolina Panthers 40/1
17 Cincinnati Bengals 40/1
17 Miami Dolphins 40/1
17 Seattle Seahawks 40/1
21 Arizona Cardinals 50/1
21 Kansas City Chiefs 50/1
21 Tennessee Titans 50/1
21 Washington Redskins 50/1
25 Oakland Raiders 60/1
26 Buffalo Bills 75/1
26 St Louis Rams 75/1
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75/1
29 Indianapolis Colts 100/1
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 100/1
29 Minnesota Vikings 100/1
32 Cleveland Browns 150/1

Summary

1. Green Bay 13/2-The Super Bowl 45 champs and LY’s 15-1 season make the Pack clearly one of the early favorites and why not with QB Rodgers back behind center and of course they have done a solid job in recent drafts.

2. New England 15/2-Even with a loss in Super Bowl 46, the Patriots are one of the early favorites to capture their first title since 2004. In recent years they have retooled their defense and added a couple of outstanding TE’s and you can never count out Brady and Belichick.

3. New Orleans 10/1-The Saints arguably had one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL last season. While they had a tough playoff road loss to the 49ers, with Brees and Co back expect more of the same high-flying Saints and I’m sure they would love nothing more than to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

4. Denver Broncos 12/1-The Broncos were my inspiration to write this blog today as just a few weeks ago they were at least 50/1 odds at many places. Now with the addition of QB Manning, the Broncos probably have their best chance at winning to the Super Bowl since John Elway was on the sidelines more than a decade ago.

4. Houston Texans 12/1-The Texans won their first playoff game in franchise history last year and did so with their #3 QB Yates. With a healthy QB Schaub throwing to WR Johnson, a great RB in Foster and one of the NFL’s best defenses, Houston may become perennial playoff winner.

Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

February 5th, 2012 No comments
SUPER BOWL XLVI
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH
6:30 PM NBC

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NY GIANTS 108
328
26
1.6
#25
98.8
NEW ENGLAND
111
258
28
1.7
#5
99.7
GAME OVERVIEW

The more things change the more they stay the same for Super Bowl XLVI. Both teams return to the Super Bowl for the 1st time since 2007 looking to cement their status in NFL history. Tom Brady has been the starting QB for NE for 10 years and this will be his 5th Super Bowl. He’s tied Joe Montana’s 16 game postseason victory mark and with a win he’d be tied with Terry Bradshaw and Montana with 4 SB victories. Oddly enough Brady has flown under the radar in 2011 due to the success of other QB’s. He also broke Dan Marino’s yardage barrier this season and his 39 passing TD’s was the 2nd best of his career. This game would redeem Brady’s loss in SB XLII and firmly put him ahead of Peyton Manning in the best of this era conversation in Manning’s own house. Winning SB XLII took Eli Manning out of his brother’s shadow but with a win he’d be ahead of his ailing brother in Championships while giving himself and Tom Coughlin a legit shot at the Hall of Fame. Eli is the 1st NFL QB in history with five road playoff victories. He also has more playoff wins in Giants history than Phil Simms (6). This isn’t much of a surprise as under Coughlin the Giants are 43-27 on the road vs 38-30 at home inc playoffs. The Giants survived a 4 game consecutive losing streak and after missing the playoffs LY despite 10 wins there was serious concerns about Coughlin’s future. Much like 2007, the Giants 38-35 loss to an offensive juggernaut gave them a big confidence boost to fuel their playoff drive. They got healthier as the season went along and played their best ball of the season in the 4 games prior to SF. The Giants can be the 1st 9-7 team to win a Super Bowl. Without a doubt SB XLVI looks to be a great way to cap off what had been a very tenuous 2011 for players and owners over the CBA negotiations.

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AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

January 22nd, 2012 No comments
NFL PLAYOFFS: 5-3
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

1 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY, JANUARY 22nd
3:00 PM ET CBS
7

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
BALTIMORE 130
215
19
1.8
#25
97.6
NEW ENGLAND
106
335
35
1.2
#6
98.6
Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

 

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Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

January 17th, 2012 No comments

COTTON BOWL Arkansas 29 Kansas St 16 Dome. KSU had a 19-13 FD edge but Ark a 345-260 yd edge. Joe Adams got his 4th PR TD on the yr and this one was 51 yds. AU had their first 11 win season since Lou Holtz’s 1977 team and Frank Broyles only undefeated season at Ark (1964). This was played in Jerry Jones’ (Ark alum) Dallas Cowboys Stadium. AU came in #6 in the BCS and KSU #8. AU’s first FD didn’t come until early 2Q but thanks to the PR TD they led 19-2 with KSU’s 2 pts coming on a blk’d xp ret’d for 2. It was 19-16 late 3Q when AU on 3&9 got a 9 yd td pass, 26-16 (3:57). KSU missed a 43 yd FG with 6:36 left. AU got a 30 yd FG with 3:30 left and KSU got to the AU37 but on 4&16 was int’d at the 25 and ret’d 61 yds.

SUN BOWL Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT GT led Utah 24-10 into the 4Q but UT got td’s with 6:50 and 1:32 left to tie. GT missed a 48 yd FG with :02 left sending it to OT. The first time in the 77 year history of the Sun Bowl it had gone to OT. GT had earlier missed two 40 yd FG’s and GT finished with a 448-337 yd edge and 19-14 FD edge losing their 7th straight bowl appearance while Utah moved to 7-1 in bowls under Whittingham. GT’s Preston Lyons who had just 39 carries on the year, rushed for 138 yds as David Sims was out with an injury and Orwin Smith was banged up. GT got a 74 yd IR TD in the 3Q to go up 24-10. UT converted on 4&3 for their first 4Q TD and opted to punt on 4&3 from their own 25 with 2:48 left but a 31 yd PR set them up at the GT24 and the TD came on a 4&14, 28 yd pass. After GT got a FG in OT, UT on 3&gl from the 8 got an 8 yd td run by White for the win. Read more…

NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

January 14th, 2012 No comments

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

4 NFC SEMI-FINALS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH
4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS 108
335
30
1.7
#5
97.7
SAN FRANCISCO
110
253
23
0.8
#1
97.6
Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they’ve only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO’s has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO’s killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO’s. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

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GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

January 8th, 2012 No comments
NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: 2-0 YESTERDAY!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

NFC WILDCARD
SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH
1:00 PM ET FOX

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
ATLANTA 110
265
23
1.6
#19
98.2
NY GIANTS
91
295
30
1.8
#23
99.5
These teams haven’t met since mid-2009 w/the Giants winning 34-31 in OT. The Giants went 4-4 at home TY w/a +30 yd edge (+3 TO’s) for a 23.3-23.1 avg score. ATL went 4-4 on the road w/a +47 ypg differential (+1 TO’s) getting outscored 23-20. ATL went 2-3 vs the common foes of PHI, SEA, GB, and NO getting outgained by 28 ypg (+2 TO’s) and outscored 31-24 on avg. The Giants earned a 1-4 record w/a -46 ypg margin (-1 TO’s) and was outscored 31-25 on avg. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have the #8 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs a good Dallas offense, a tougher than advertised Washington team and a physical Jets defense. Atlanta has the #4 and #17 units (+9 TO’s) but has faced a weak Carolina def, a depleted Jacksonville team, was hammered by New Orleans and beat a Tampa Bay team that quit at Thanksgiving. We now have a dome team in cold weather vs a Giants team playing with confidence with a brutal DL and home crowd. I’m going with the more physical team at home here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

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