Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

205

26

1.9

#12

258

23

2.1

#21

The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for only a second time in their last 7 games. Buffalo has now lost 4 straight after giving up a 77/12pl TD drive with 1:06 LW and now has the psychological disadvantage of having a losing record for the first time TY. Attrition can be blamed on them avg just 285 ypg & 12.5 ppg the L4W as they are #2 in the NFL with 13 players lost to the IR. The Titans continue to live and die by the running game and the 4 times this season when they’ve totalled 90 or more rush yards they’ve gone 4-0 incl Chris Johnson topping 130 yards 2 of the L3W having a ssn high 190 (8.3) vs Tampa. They now face a Bills squad that has allowed 124 ypg and 4.5 ypc rushing on the ssn. The Titans also will get a boost knowing they trail HOU by 2 games with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB and a meeting with them in the season finale. The Titans losses TY have come vs JAX, PIT, HOU, CIN and ATL who came into LW as the NFL’s #3, #2 #1 and #6 overall D while the Falcons were the leagues #2 rushD. Buffalo’s #24 D and #22 rush D come nowhere close.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

193

14

1.0

#15

238

21

0.6

#20

This is the 2nd of 3 straight NFC South games for the Titans. TEN is off a big win vs a young CAR team off a bye and ATL off a home loss to NO in OT. ATL has good stat edges here with the #7 and #7 units (+2 TO’s) the last 4 weeks and have held foes to 271 yds and 16 ppg in their L3 games. TEN has the #26 and #27 units (0 TO’s) L4W and have allowed 362 ypg on the road. TEN has been outgained in 3 of 4 games and are taking the #19 pass rush on the road (19 sks). While ATL may only have 16 sks they’ve forced enough pressure for a respectable 12-10 ratio and have held foes to 91 ypg rushing (3.9). QB Ryan (22-4 at home) admitted the offense started off slow due to forcing 1st RD DC Julio Jones into the system resulting in his missing 2 games w/a hamstring injury. ATL has avg’d 149 ypg rushing (4.3) and 27.0 ppg the L4W going back to a power run scheme. TEN has a beat up defense that’s started 7 different LB’s TY and ATL is strong off a loss.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

190

29

0.0

#21

150

11

1.8

#31

The Falcons are off their bye and have a huge home game vs NO on deck. ATL has played the #13 sked to this point in the year which accounts for the perception they’ve underachieved TY with the #17 and #20 units (+1 TO’s). Defenses have managed to slow WR White (39 rec 10.9) who has been bothered by a knee injury and 1st RD DC Jones (25 rec 14.3) has missed 2 games w/a hamstring injury. The good news is that they face an IND team giving up 261 ypg (77%) with an 11-0 ratio the L4W with just 1 QB held to under a 95 QBR so far TY. Bill Polian placed the blame firmly on the defense as the DL is missing its 2 best DT’s (Foster, Nevis) on IR. While Mathis/Freeney have 8 sacks combined the Colts have 12 as a team (18th). While Painter is not the big problem (just 4 ints TY) the Colts lack the quick strike capability here to help a defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd Dns (#32, 49.1%). IND is simply overmatched here.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

223

24

1.4

#2

243

17

1.6

#15

This is the 5th year in a row for the London game. TB has a big edge in planning as while they lost to NE 35-7 in Morris’ rookie season in 2009. It was their 3rd road game in 4 Wks and Morris entered into the game with a defeatist attitude after NE had blown out TEN 59-0 prior. Both teams are beat up injury wise with TB expected to be without RB Blount (MCL) and DT McCoy (high ankle sprain) here. TB comes in off a tight physical game vs NO where they converted 4 TO’s into 10 pts. While they gave up 453 yds they held NO to 2 FG’s and an int on 4 drives inside their 20. CHI is off B2B primetime games and their level of interest is uncertain. Cutler has been sacked 70 times since Martz took over and has been behind 4 diff OL’s in 5 weeks prior to LW. The key to this game will be if TB can control Forte who is playing at an MVP level with 785 total yds (7.0) or 49% of the Bears total offense prior to MIN. I’ll call for CHI by a FG.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

200

12

2.2

#24

358

37

2.9

#27

The Rams come out of the bye in very poor shape due to injuries. Both of STL’s starting CB’s are on IR and they lost their projected nickel CB prior to camp. LY they had the #19 pass defense (best in the NFC West) w/a 21-14 TD/int ratio and a 6.8 ypa and TY’s #11pass defense with only 1 secondary starter from 2010 has a tough matchup here. At this point STL has struggled to run OC McDaniels Patriots offense (outscored 79-16 1H TY) due to OL problems (1 sack every 8.4 pass att’s), a bad WR unit depleted by injuries (lost WR Amendola 90 rec 8.2 w/ Bradford) and RB Jackson (hamstring) getting hurt. Bradford’s 5.6 ypa in a vertical offense is worse than LY’s 6.0 ypa as a rookie in a West Coast system. STL is getting GB at a great time though after 3 road games in 4 Wks with ATL on SNF and MIN on SNF on deck. Look for McDaniels to channel the offense thru a healthy Steven Jackson who has avg’d 132 total ypg (5.0) after a bye in his career to take the pressure off the defense against a Packer team due for a lull. In the end though the Packers are the best team in the NFL and they get the road win by 10 to move to 6-0.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

190

21

2.1

#22

213

23

1.7

#31

It’s tough to look at these teams right now and think they were their respective div winners LY. KC entered LY’s game as the NFL’s last unbeaten team until IND won 19-9. KC was continually put in bad spots by Haley who opened the game w/an onside kick which IND recovered and turned into a FG. KC drove to the IND 8 but had an inc pass on 4th and 2 which IND turned into a FG. KC finally got into the win column LW after fending off a late rally by the Vikings. KC’s passing game finally showed up as Bowe (107, 21.4) and Breaston (91, 22.8) got into the flow. KC converted 6 of 15 3rd Dns and the final score should have been more one sided but on 3 drives inside the MIN 22 they settled for 3 FG’s. IND switched to Painter (143 yds 28% 0-2 career total) on MNF LW and also IR’d MLB Brackett (shoulder) and SS Bullitt (shoulder) beforehand. I’ll call for the home team by just over a FG here as Painter looked serviceable last week.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

285

31

1.7

#15

335

27

2.4

#20

DAL beat DET 35-19 with both teams using backup QB’s. DET had a 12-7 lead in the 3Q and held the Cowboys to 0 FD’s and -9 yds on 5 straight drives after their opening drive. DET gave up a 97 yd PR for a TD, fumbled on their 19 to set up a 19/4 TD drive and gave up 71 and 80 yd TD drives in the 4Q. DAL is off LW’s MNF game vs the Redskins and got another win. LW DET rallied from 20-0 down vs MIN to win in OT. After being held to 40 yds net passing in the 1H Stafford led DET to a 20-3 scoring surge in the 2H with 15-5 FD and 308-108 yd edges. Megatron (C Johnson) finished with 108 yds (15.4) after being held to 7 yds (7.0) in the 1H as the defense held Peterson to just 5 yds (1.0). DET will be dealing with the media touting their first 3-0 start since 1980, their first win at the Metrodome in 15 years and it’s now on them to handle success. While beat up DAL is the more potent than what the Lions have faced so far and I’ll call for them by 7.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

200

21

2

#1

373

32

3

#20

The Bears beat the Saints 27-24 in ‘08. NO went to the wire in their losing effort to GB LW and they have extra time to adjust to not having WR’s Moore (groin) or Colston (collarbone) here. NO went 5-3 at home LY. They showed they were just as potent as ever with a 78 yd edge vs GB on the road. Now they are at home vs a CHI offense that doesn’t have the same quick strike ability as GB. LW vs ATL the Bears converted 3 TO’s into 14 pts and while they gave up yds to Ryan (319) they forced him to put it up 47 times logging 5 sks and 6 QBH. Cutler was very sharp with 312 yds (69%) with a 2-1 ratio. The OL gave up 5 sks and 11 QBH and took a hit with RG Louis (ankle) getting hurt and career C Spencer from SEA may get the start here. Playing on turf will help CHI’s speed but Saints C Kreutz was CHI’s C for 13 years and will help with the playcalls here.