Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| GEORGIA |
100 |
170
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16
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2.6
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-
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| LSU |
170
|
145
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30
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2.3
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•••
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LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
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Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20
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Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 14-8 (64%) and so far this season I am 190-47 (80%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
# 1 LSU vs #3 ARKANSAS
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| ARKANSAS |
65 |
210
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25
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2.3
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•
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| LSU |
245
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170
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37
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1.6
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-
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|
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SEC West/Nat’l Title Implications in the Battle for the Golden Boot. Ark has outgained LSU 5 str and won 3 of 4 outright. LY Ark had a 464-294 yd edge with a pair of 80 yd TD passes. LSU did win the last time here as they kicked a 41-yd FG w/:04 to force OT (Ark missed 35 yd FG in OT). This tightly contested series has been decided by 8 or less the L6Y with the cumulative score Ark 185-184. LW both tms took care of business as LSU dispatched Ole Miss 52-3 as they outgained the Rebels 458-195 but did have 2 Def TD’s. The Tigers matched their best start S/’58 as QB Jefferson got his 2nd str st (4-0 ratio). LW the Razorbacks had a 44-17 easy win over Miss St. QB Wilson had a school record 32 comp and leads the SEC avg 292 ypg (63%) with a 21-5 ratio. LSU is 10-2 in home finales. Ark does have slight off (#10-15) and ST’s (#2-25) edges while LSU has the def edge (#2-25). With the recent series history, this one comes down to the wire once again but it’s tough going against the Tigers at home in a big game under Miles.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 31 ARKANSAS 24 Read more…
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During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.
As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.
With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them. Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 12-5 (71%) and so far this season I am 163-32 (84%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU vs WKU
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| WKU |
40 |
75
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0
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3.2
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-
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| LSU |
195
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245
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48
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1.0
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-
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It’s obvious that one of these tms is in line for a huge letdown after enormous emotional victories by each LW. LSU won the “Game of the Century” over Bama 9-6 in OT. LSU has faced non-BCS tms the L/4Y’s after playing Bama and when they are off a win over the Tide, are 2-0 the next wk winning by a comb score of 109-10! These tms both played Kentucky TY and while LSU held the Cats to 13 FD’s and 155 ttl yds, WKU all’d just 11 FD’s and 190 ttl yds. WKU has now won 5 str as they also won on a FG on the final play besting FIU 10-9. RB Rainey is #4 FBS rushing avg 130 ypg but will find running difficult as LSU is #2 all’g only 79 rush ypg (2.6). The Hilltoppers goal here is to escape without any serious inj’s as they are very much in the SBC hunt, and LSU is 35-0 all time vs the SBC.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 41 WKU 0 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 120-19 (86%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#3 OKLAHOMA ST VS BAYLOR
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| BAYLOR |
203 |
265
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32
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3.7
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-
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| OKLAHOMA ST |
207
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440
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56
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1.5
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•••
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OSU has dominated winning 14 of 15. LY OSU had a schl record 725 yds in a 55-28 blowout (led 27-0 half) in what was supposed to be a B12 South showdown. Since their 3-0 Top 15 non-conf start the Bears have lost 2 of 3 in B12 play with the D allowing 39 ppg and 487 ypg in conf play. Two of the FBS’s best pitch-catch combos are on display in BU’s Griffin (#7 pass eff w/325, 78%, 22-2, 295 rush) to Wright (#5 FBS w/55, 13.8, 9 TD) and OSU’s Weeden (#17 pass eff with 348, 72%, 19-7) to Blackmon (61 rec, 10.9). BU is #78 pass eff D (240, 57%, 18-6). OSU won their 10th straight outside of Stillwater 45-24 over Missouri. HC Gundy said OSU could’ve had 40 by HT if not for the many dropped balls but the Cowboys feasted on 4 2H TO’s from MU QB Franklin which set up 3 TD’s for the win despite missing WR’s Blackmon (concussion) and Anyiam (OFY foot) in the 2H but RB Randle (690, 5.7, 12 TD) has continued to shine. The Cowboys have forced 22 TO in the L/5 gms. OSU has big edges on D (#39-88) and ST (#23-92). OSU is now my pick at this point to play Bama in the national title gm and since BU upset them in ‘05, OSU has won by 42, 31, 28, 27 and 27 and that trend continues here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 59 BAYLOR 38
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Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 13-4 (76%) and so far this season I am 103-17 (86%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the boDID ttom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU VS #20 AUBURN
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| AUBURN |
130 |
75
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7
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2.9
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-
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| LSU |
210
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200
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36
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1.4
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-
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HT has won 10 of the L/11 games and Six of the L/7 gms (excluding ‘09) have been decided by a ttl of 26 pts and LSU hasn’t dropped B2B gms in this series S/’99-‘00. LY in the battle of Top 10 tms LSU tied it 17-17 early 4Q but all’d a 70 yd TD run w/5:05 left. LSU was SOD at its 32 and Aub ran out the L/3:20, 24-17. Aub did have a commanding 526-243 yd edge. LSU had outgained Auburn the previous 4 by 146 ypg and LTH won 31-10. This will be another day home gm for the LSU and while they are 9-4 in those gms under Miles, they are just 50% in those gms since 1960. LW LSU beat Tenn 38-7 as they outgained UT 383-289 and the 31 pt margin was the largest ever vs the Vols. While QB Jefferson continues to see more and more action Lee is still getting most of the snaps avg 155 ypg (62%) and a superb 11-1 ratio. LW Aub took adv of the young inexp UF QB’s by holding them to just 194 yds in the 17-6 win. With reg st’r Trotter struggling as of late, 3 diff Tiger QB’s got action incl Moseley who threw for 90 yds. RB Dyer is still the workhorse with 752 rush yd (5.1) and 8 TD’s. This is AU’s 3rd away game in 4 weeks and with a bye on deck for LSU, this will be the final time to make a statement before the showdown with Bama in two weeks vs a QB making his first start.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 34 AUBURN 10 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 19-2 (90%) and so far this season I am 109-15 (88%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU AT TENNESSEE
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| LSU |
167 |
158
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29
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1.2
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•••
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| TENNESSEE |
49
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268
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18
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2.5
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-
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The past 4 and 6 of the L7 have been decided by 8 or less. LSU has won 3 straight and has outgained the Vols by 189 ypg . LY LSU had a 434-217 yd edge but 4 TO’s had Tenn up late and they “won” the gm but had too many men on the field which gave LSU one more chance and they got a TD to escape 16-14 at home. Tenn’s young tm (8 ret st’rs) went 0-3 LY at home vs ranked teams but in all 3 losses they were competitive early and were worn out in the 2H (13-13 Oreg, 3-7 Fla, 10-13 Bama). The same thing happened LW as the Vols were tied w/UGA 6-6 at HT but wore down in the 2H in a 20-12 loss as they were outgained 366-270. On UT’s TD drive late in the 4Q, QB Bray (316 ypg, 66%, 14-2 ratio) hurt the thumb on his throwing hand (out 4W) and was replaced by Simms. The UT rush off continues to struggle avg just 85 ypg (2.5) and will find it tough sledding vs an LSU run D all’g just 69 ypg (2.3). LW the Tigers took advantage of the Gators starting their 3rd string QB and rolled to a 41-11 win with 20-9 FD and 453-213 yd edges. QB Lee continued his efficient play and is now avg 158 ypg (60%) but most importantly an 8-1 ratio. Jefferson, back from susp the L/2W, has been used on occasion to take advantage of his running ability. LSU has the edges on off (#22-37), D (#2-25) and ST’s (#16-87) but they have a big gm vs Bama looming in the distance and Aub on deck.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 23 TENNESSEE 16 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 14-4 (78%) and so far this season I am 90-13 (87%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU VS #17 FLORIDA
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| FLORIDA |
95 |
165
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19
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2.9
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•
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| LSU |
145
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190
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29
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1.8
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-
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LY when LSU faked a 53 yd FG w/:35 left down 3. The holder tossed the ball over his head and K Jasper caught it after it hit the turf (review upheld) and ran 5 yds for a FD. Four plays later LSU scored the GW TD w/:06 left. Despite needing that lucky play for the win LY LSU did have a 385-243 yd edge in the Swamp. Will Muschamp spent 2001-’04 as the DC/LB cch at LSU. Gators are off a big HG vs Bama in which they were dominated after their first play from scrimmage (65 yd TD pass). The key play happened late in the 1H with the Gators trailing 24-10 and driving when QB Brantley was hurt (knee). Bkp Driskel came in but the UF off did not cross midfield from that point forward. The duo of Rainey/Demps who came in avg 275 all-purpose ypg were held to 8 yds rush (0.6 combined). LSU dominated UK and all’d only 55 yds until the Wildcats final two drives. QB Lee continues his efficient play avg 159 ypg (59%) with a 7-1 ratio. LSU S/’60 is 220-60-4 in night gms (28-1 under Miles) and just 25-25-3 in day games (9-4 UM). With UF’s uncertainty at QB and the possibility of a true frosh making his first career start, the Tigers get the win.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 FLORIDA 13 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 76-9 (89%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU VS KENTUCKY
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| KENTUCKY |
35 |
125
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6
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3.5
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-
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| LSU |
245
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195
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41
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1.5
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-
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LSU is off its 3rd AG in 4W and 3rd game vs a ranked opp already. The key to this game might be when it was announced LW that the game will kickoff at 11:21 am locally and keep in mind under Miles, at home, LSU is 28-1 in night gms while they are just 8-4 in day gms. UK has been shutout in its L/2 trips to Death Valley (‘00 and ‘06, avg score 42-0, -131 ypg). In the last gm (‘07) #1 LSU had a 4 gm series win streak snapped losing in 3OT on the road. LW LSU finished up their impressive month of Sept with a 47-21 win over WV as they scored the final 20 pts but did get outgained 533-366. QB Lee has made everyone forget about Jefferson avg 156 ypg (64%) with a 6-1 ratio. UK is off to a poor 2-2 start being outgained by an avg of 366-281. QB Newton is avg 148 ypg (54%) with a 5-6 ratio and the big problem has been the run gm avg just 123 (3.6). LSU has a big game vs Florida on deck but it will be tough seeing the Cats offense moving vs our #2 defense.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 38 KENTUCKY 10 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 20-3 (87%) and so far this season I am 59-7 (89%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 OKLAHOMA VS MISSOURI
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| MISSOURI |
102 |
190
|
18
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2.6
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-
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| OKLAHOMA |
163
|
365
|
35
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2.0
|
•
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Mizzou hasn’t won in Norman S/’66 dropping 17 str trips. Oklahoma is playing with legitimate revenge as they had 3 trips inside the MO15 result in 0 pts and allowed a KR TD as ESPN Gameday was on hand for the night game that sent the #1 team down. LW OU proved their mettle at #5 FSU by shaking off a 56 yd TD pass which tied the gm with 9:32 left and promptly driving 83/8pl for a TD and adding an insurance FG with 2:01 left to beat the Seminoles. QB Jones (287 ypg, 72%, 2-2) has a weapon in the nation’s #2 rec Broyles (21 rec) but an improved run gm has been the difference spearheaded by walk-on Whaley (202, 5.2). Aggressive Sooners D has 9 sks and has forced 6 TO’s in 2 gms. MO a school record 744-44 yd and 30-1 FD edges in their 69-0 annihilation of FCS W IL. 3rd string TB (1st 2 out) Josey ran for 263 yd (18.8) in the 1H as the Tigers roared out to a 42-0 HT lead. DE Jacquies Smith (out L/2 with elbow inj) may return TW. OU has big edges (#3-28 off, #3-22 D and #12-51 ST) all around and I think the Sooners get their revenge in relatively easy fashion.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 MISSOURI 17
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