Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 19-1 (95%) and so far this season I am 39-4 (91%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77.3%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which went 8-5 the L/6 weeks of last year.
#1 OKLAHOMA AT #5 FLORIDA ST
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| OKLAHOMA |
138 |
305
|
30
|
1.6
|
-
|
| FLORIDA ST |
107
|
265
|
25
|
2.7
|
••
|
|
|
One of the biggest games of the year in terms of the national title picture. LY was a rematch of the ‘00 Orange Bowl and OU dominated scoring TD’s on their 1st 4 poss. OU led 47-10 with a 487-298 yd edge before allowing a 47 yd garbage TD pass on the gm’s final play. Landry Jones hit 30-40 for 380 yds incl 372 yds at the half before going more conservative in the 2H. OU is 14-0 at home/bowls but is just 4-6 on the road. They are off a bye after discarding a high powered Tulsa offense 47-14. OU has 16 st’rs back incl battle tested QB Jones who LY vs 6 ranked foes threw for 362 ypg. FSU QB Manuel has started 3 vs ranked foes throwing for 157 ypg. FSU is off 2 tune-up gms vs non-BCS foes avg 510 ypg and outscoring them 96-10. FSU has this as a revenge gm but OU has circled it as well after hearing about it in April. OU was at Miami in ‘09 and lost but that was an 8-5 tm that year and now comes in #1 and the most talented team in the country.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 34 FLORIDA ST 27
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#2 ALABAMA VS NORTH TEXAS
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Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| NORTH TEXAS |
-5 |
90
|
0
|
2.8
|
-
|
| ALABAMA |
275
|
300
|
52
|
1.5
|
-
|
|
|
|
In the last gm (‘09) NT trailed 30-0 at HT being outgained 355-57 (NT was without starting QB) before eventually falling 53-7. Bama is in a large flat spot off their first road game facing a Whitehouse crowd at Penn St and they have Arkansas and Florida on deck. After spotting PSU a 3 pt lead, they scored 27 straight and won 27-11. NT is off their first gm ever at their new stadium vs Houston and were only down 20-17 at HT, before QB Keenum got hot and torched the Mean Green for 458 yds and 5 TD’s in the 48-23 loss. RB Dunbar has been held in check thus far rushing for just 53 ypg (2.9) and Bama has only given up 98 total rush yds on the season!
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PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 52 NORTH TEXAS 0 Read more…
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During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.
As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.
With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them. Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 20-3 (87%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77.3%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which went 8-5 the L/6 weeks of last year.
NORTHWESTERN ST AT #2 LSU
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| NORTHWESTERN ST |
-30 |
100
|
0
|
2.9
|
-
|
| LSU |
300 |
340
|
58
|
1.4
|
-
|
|
|
| LSU is 10-0 vs Northwestern St outscoring them by a combined 417-0 in those games. Northwestern St is off a 24-23 win over Div-II Delta St, as NWSt stopped Delta’s St’s 2 pt conversion attempt with :10 left. The Demons led 17-0 at half but were outgained 421-355 in the game. LSU is coming off an impressive performance over #3 Oregon 40-27. NWSt is 4-18 vs FBS foes since 1999 but their last win was vs ULM in 2005. Since then, except for a 38-31 loss to Mississippi in 2007, they have lost by 20+ pts including a 65-21 loss to Air Force last year. LSU is 6-0 vs FCS teams since 2000 with the closest game being last years 32-10 win over instate McNeese St. The Demons have another FBS game vs SMU on deck. LSU is coming off a HUGE win and has a SEC game vs a ranked Mississippi St on deck but the defense could find some motavation to keep their streak of 10 straight shutouts going. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 49 NORTHWESTERN ST 0
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#3 ALABAMA AT #23 PENN ST
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| ALABAMA |
150 |
160
|
22
|
2.4
|
-
|
| PENN ST |
115 |
175
|
18
|
2.0
|
- |
|
|
|
The Tide’s last trip to State College was in ‘89, a 17-16 win (blk’d an 18 yd FG w/:13 left). QB Bolden made his 1st road start LY in Tuscaloosa going 13-29 (45%) 141 yds w/an 0-2 ratio. PSU trailed 24-0 LY early 4Q as 30% of their ttl yds and 35% of FD’s came after. The Lions did have 3 drives deep into Tide terr in the 1st 3Q’s end in 0 pts (3 TO). PSU’s opening wallop of Indy St provided little clarity to the QB battle as st’r Bolden hit 6-12-37 while McGloin was 6-8-77 but had a sure fire IR TD dropped. There’s nothing wrong with the Lions D however as they held the Sycamores to 83 yds in the 1st 3Q’s. Bama’s QB audition favored soph McCarron as the Tide scored 5 TD, 1 FG on his 10 poss vs rFr Sims’ 1 TD and 1 FG on 6. The duo combined to throw 4 int incl 1 which cost the Tide the shut out in their demolition of Kent (24-6 FD and 482-90 yd edges). Bama does have an inexperienced QB making his first road start in front of 100,000+ in Whitehouse conditions but in the end the nation’s #1 defense combined with the RB duo of Richardson/Lacy will prove too much for the Lions.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 24 PENN ST 13 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77.3%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which went 8-5 the L/6 weeks of last year.
# 1 OKLAHOMA VS TULSA
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| TULSA |
122 |
225
|
21
|
2.9
|
-
|
| OKLAHOMA |
198 |
425
|
48
|
2.2
|
•
|
|
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|
OU is the clear favorite to win the national title and open their season against a familiar foe. The Sooners are 5-0 vs Tulsa outscoring them 233-36. In their last meeting (‘09) OU got the shutout 45-0 w/a 529-269 yd edge. Tulsa actually finished #24 AP LY and has 18 st’rs back making them one of the most exp’d tms in the country and they have Texas transfer GJ Kinne in his 3rd year as starter (12-26 106 in ‘09 vs OU). They do have a new HC in Blakenship who hasn’t even been a college coor. LY the Golden Hurricane defense allowed 482 ypg on the road. OU is a dominating home team going avg 523 ypg LY at home and won by a 40-13 avg. They have a bye on deck before FSU. OU has my #1 rated offense and #3 D while Tulsa is #10 on offense but just #66 on D. Tulsa did not face a single ranked tm LY and with their star all-purpose player D. Johnson suspended the Sooners should be able to start the 2011 season in style as my computer calls for a 623-347 yd edge.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 48 TULSA 20
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Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 12-8 picking the winners of each game and have gone 196-59 (77%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 7-4 the L/5 weeks.
#1 OREGON at OREGON ST
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| OREGON |
263 |
190
|
37
|
1.9
|
••
|
| OREGON ST |
117
|
225
|
20
|
2.5
|
-
|
|
|
|
The last two matchups in the Civil War have been for the Rose Bowl as the Beavers have had their Rose Bowl Dreams shot down twice with Oregon getting the Rose Bowl bid LY. Ironically this year the Rose Bowl would be the consolation prize as the Ducks can clinch a spot in their first BCS National Title game with a win. LW despite trailing by 5 at HT, Oregon did their typical 2H surge outscoring AZ by a 34-10 margin. On the other side OSU has now lost 3 of their last 4 after getting shutout for the first time S/’02 as they were outgained 470-285 versus Stanford and need a win here to become bowl eligible. Despite Oregon being held to a season low 324 yds in their last road game (at Cal) the offense is avg 543 ypg and continue to play at a fever pitch if they’re ahead or behind. It is tough to imagine OSU being able to slow them as they’ve faced 3 Top 10 teams getting outgained by 198 yds to TCU, 241 yds to Boise and 185 yds LW vs Stanford. The Ducks defense should play inspired football as they will try to make a statement after allowing 506 yds LW incl a season high 448 yds passing. I’ll call for HC Riley and the Beavers to play with a lot of emotion early and maybe stand toe-to-toe with the Ducks for a half but in the end the Ducks will pull away and book their tickets to Glendale.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 44 OREGON ST 23
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Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 14-8 picking the winners of each game and have gone 184-51 (78.3%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 6-3 the L/4 weeks.
#1 OREGON VS #20 ARIZONA
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| ARIZONA |
102 |
205
|
14
|
2.6
|
-
|
| OREGON |
253
|
265
|
40
|
2.1
|
••••
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|
|
|
LY despite leading by 10 pts early 4Q, Arizona allowed Oregon to score the game-tying TD w/:06 left and eventually lost in 2OT costing them a shot at the Rose Bowl. TY the Ducks are one win away from tying the school record they set back in 2001. Both teams are off a late season bye. While Oregon had its worst offensive output of the season vs Cal (243 yds and 40 pts under season avg) but also arguably their best defensive performance as well (13 pts, 192 yds) in the 2 pt win. Arizona on the other hand continued to slip down the Pac-10 rankings after its 2nd consecutive conference loss as they have been outscored 66-38 vs Stanford and USC while the Ducks despite falling behind early outscored the Trojans and Cardinal by a score of 105-63. Autzen Stadium should be really rocking for the Ducks final home game and they improve to 11-0 setting up an intriguing “Civil War” matchup next week.
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|
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 14-8 picking the winners of each game and have gone 171-47 (78.4%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 5-2 the L/3 weeks.
# 3 BOISE ST VS FRESNO ST
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| FRESNO ST |
117 |
80
|
16
|
2.7
|
•
|
| BOISE ST |
193
|
335
|
50
|
1.3
|
-
|
|
|
| Boise has won the last 4 games vs Fresno at home with the avg win 51-17. LY both teams were able to run the football on each other as they combined for 619 rush yds as Boise won 51-34. The last time here on the Blue Turf it was a complete mismatch as Boise won 61-10 with a 494-294 yd edge. Boise gained significant pts on TCU last week in the BCS Standings and with the Horned Frogs off this week, the Broncos can use this game with a national audience to maybe gain even more pts as they should control from the start. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 51 FRESNO ST 23
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#5 LSU VS MISSISSPPI
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| MISS |
190 |
75
|
12
|
2.8
|
-
|
| LSU |
175
|
170
|
39
|
1.5
|
•••••
|
|
|
This is a dangerous spot for LSU as Ole Miss HC Nutt has upset the #2, #1 (twice) and #4 teams incl a win on the road over #1 LSU when he was the HC at Ark in ’07. These games have been close recently with 5 of L/8 decided by a FG or less. LY LSU mismanaged the clock late wasting :17 before calling a TO driving to the UM6 with :01 left and spiking the ball which gave the Rebels a 25-23 win. Ole Miss is playing its 4th road gm in 6 wks and took a pounding LW at Tenn losing 52-14 (outgained 441-295) as QB Masoli was coming off a concussion and threw 3 int with just 80 yds passing. LSU destroyed ULM 51-0 in their final home night gm LW scoring 31 pts off of ULM TO’s. This home finale is a 2:30 Central start (27-1 in Sat night HG’s, 7-4 in afternoon HG’s under Miles). While the Rebels don’t have the horses to get the huge upset win I’ll call for it to be closer than what many people suspect.
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|
|
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 13-5 picking the winners of each game and have gone 157-39 (80%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 OREGON at CALIFORNIA
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| OREGON |
242 |
178
|
43
|
2.2
|
••
|
| CALIFORNIA |
144
|
208
|
22
|
2.8
|
-
|
|
|
Oregon got off to a slow start last week by managed to score 53 points in the final 3Q’s to rout a beat-up Washington team. This week they face a Cal team who is also without their starting QB Riley who is out for the year and last week Mansion hit just 50% of his passes with an 0-2 ratio but they were able to beat Washington St 20-13. LY Cal came into this game avg 49 ppg but were held to just 3 pts in the 42-3 loss. Cal has won 3 str in this series at home by 11 ppg and four of the L/7 have been decided by a TD or less but its tough to go against a Duck team that has been so prolific.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 41 CALIFORNIA 27 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 12-6 picking the winners of each game and have gone 144-34 (81%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 OREGON VS WASHINGTON
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|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| WASH |
112 |
180
|
12
|
2.7
|
-
|
| OREGON |
353
|
255
|
55
|
2.1
|
••••
|
|
|
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The Ducks have started 8-0 for just the second time in 115 seasons (1933). Washington will be playing this one with out QB Locker and even with him at QB the Huskies come into this meeting with a sputtering offense that hasn’t scored in nearly 98 minutes including being shutout at home for the 1st time S/’1976 LW vs Stanford, 41-0 (Stanford 22-7 FD, 470-107 yd edges!!). Oregon meanwhile may have faced its biggest challenge of the season in LW’s visit to USC (off a bye) where despite going back and forth for the 1st 3Q’s, UO scored the final 24 pts in the 21 pt win. The Ducks move so quickly through their plays that they rank last in the conference and 114th in the nation in time of possession, at 26:44 per game. The Ducks have won a school record 6 consecutive meetings vs the Huskies by an avg 42-17 while outgaining them by 285 ypg over the L/2. The Ducks have my #1 offense and #16 D and faced a backup QB in their last home game vs UCLA and won 60-13. Look for more of the same here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 55 WASHINGTON 13 Read more…
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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 14-5 picking the winners of each game and have gone 132-28 (82.5%) so far this season! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 OREGON AT #24 USC
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| OREGON |
215 |
230
|
37
|
2.4
|
••
|
| USC |
195
|
310
|
31
|
2.8
|
-
|
|
|
|
It’s been tough being ranked #1 lately as the top team in either the AP or BCS polls has went down on the road to a ranked team for three straight weeks. This week the Trojans get their turn for the upset as Oregon becomes the first #1 team to travel to the Coliseum since 1988 (Notre Dame). USC is off a bye and could be undefeated if not for two last second losses by a FG to Stanford and Washington. Two weeks ago vs California they had their most complete game of the season jumping out to a 42-0 HT lead and outgained the Bears 602-245 in the 34 pt win. UO is also off another impressive outing as they exploded for 582 yds and 60 pts in the win over UCLA last Thursday. Last year the Ducks put up 613 yds and rolled the Trojans 47-20 giving USC their first loss by over a TD since 2001. USC is playing with revenge, has extra time to prepare and has proven they belong as they nearly beat Top 15 Stanford on the road and demolished Cal in their last two outings as they make it four straight weeks for an upset of the #1 team.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 38 OREGON 37 Read more…
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